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Market Commentary October 2025 Key Takeaways

• Market sentiment improved significantly in Q3 as economic uncertainties eased.
• Both U.S. and Canadian stock markets posted strong gains. The rally was supported by sector-specific earnings strength and structural growth drivers in AI and digital infrastructure. Equity valuations remain elevated, which could become a potential headwind for future performance.
• Canadian bond markets delivered positive returns in Q3. Returns were largely from underlying interest income, supported by modestly lower interest rates and continued strong performance from tighter credit spreads.
• Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve restarted easing in Q3. Each central bank cut rates by 25 basis points in September, responding to rising risks to labour markets.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity has remained relatively steady through 2025. However, while business investment remained robust, the pace of hiring slowed. Inflation has increased in recent months, but overall price pressures appear contained. Trade uncertainty eased in the third quarter as the U.S. reached agreements on tariffs with several key trading partners. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, as well as the European Union, negotiated compromise deals. These deals typically involved U.S. tariffs in the range of 15% to 20% in exchange for market access or investment commitments. However, other nations faced higher tariffs of 30-50% following failed negotiations. Mexico and China are currently in a 90-day pause on tariff hikes, which will expire on October 29 and November 10, respectively. At its September meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%– 4.25%. The Fed also signaled that additional interest rate cuts will likely be required to support the economy. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted increasing risks to the labour market and decreasing risks to inflation. He emphasized that the Fed remains data dependent and that interest rate decisions will be made “meeting-by-meeting”. The October 1 shutdown of the U.S. government added further uncertainty to the economic outlook. Key data releases are expected to be delayed, and the White House has warned of mass layoffs of federal workers.

The Canadian economy experienced a modest rebound in July following weak growth in the second quarter. However, U.S. tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty continue to present risks to the economy. The labour market continues to weaken while inflationary pressures have eased in recent months. On July 31, the U.S. increased tariffs on Canadian imports from 25% to 35% for those products not exempted under USMCA. In addition, the U.S. has expanded its list of sector-specific tariffs. This is expected to place further strain on Canadian exporters. In response to these developments, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% during its September meeting. Governor Tiff Macklem indicated that the Bank is prepared to take further action if the balance of risks shifts to weaker growth.

Bond Markets: During Q3, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned 1.5%. Yields on Canadian bonds with maturities of 10 years or less declined. That reflected increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Yields on bonds with maturities of greater than 10 years increased moderately, as investors continued to demand a higher risk premium for long-term debt.

Overall, corporate bonds saw a positive return for the quarter and outperformed government bonds. This outperformance was due to the higher interest rate on corporate bonds relative to government bonds, with an assist from modestly tighter credit spreads. Corporate issuance was robust during the quarter with strong investor demand, as investors were willing to look past U.S. tariffs and their potential impact to global growth. There were 99 corporate bond issuances during Q3 that combined to raise $45 billion for issuers, a new record. Indeed, the new issuance market is tracking ahead of last year, the previous high-water mark for issuance.

Notwithstanding the continued strong performance from corporate bonds, we have maintained a bias towards shorter corporate bonds where the risk and reward are better balanced. We remain ready to invest in longer corporate bonds as valuations become attractive.

Stock Markets: Equity markets posted strong gains in Q3. The S&P 500 returned 8.1% for the quarter, led by Information Technology and Communication Services. Investors focused on the expansion of AI infrastructure and a more favourable regulatory environment for blockchain technology. These themes supported risk appetite despite valuations remaining high relative to historical averages. The Canadian market returned 12.5% in Q3, outperforming the U.S. by more than 4%. This was driven mainly by strong returns in the Materials sector. Meanwhile, the Europe, Australasia, and Far East Index (EAFE) returned 5.4%, as international investors re-evaluated the “Sell America” trade trend.

U.S. Equities: In Q3, U.S. equities rose on strong momentum in AI infrastructure investment and growing interest in blockchain innovation. Mega-cap tech stocks led the rally. Major announcements such as NVIDIA’s $100 billion investment in OpenAI and Oracle’s $300 billion multi-year cloud deal highlighted the rapid growth of hyperscale data centers and the deepening commitment to AI development. A more supportive regulatory environment for blockchain technology also boosted investor interest in digital assets. This was reflected in robust IPO activity from crypto-focused companies such as Figure Technology and Gemini. Both stocks saw sharp gains following their public market debuts. That said, the S&P 500 continues to trade at nearly 23 times its forward earnings, roughly 20% above its 10-year average.

Canadian Equities: Canadian equities rose on better-than-expected economic data and sector-driven earnings, outperforming the U.S. by more than 4% in Q3. The Materials sector drove the rally, contributing nearly half of the gain for the TSX in Q3, as the price of gold surged past US$3850/oz (+45% YTD). The Technology sector also posted solid results, highlighted by Shopify’s continued strong performance. Shopify’s AI-driven product expansion and scalable digital commerce growth pushed the stock to trade around 85 times its forward earnings over the next twelve months. Positive sentiment extended to the Financials sector, where better-than-expected provisions for credit losses helped support a revaluation of bank stocks.

Overall, Q3 marked a risk-on environment across North American equities, underpinned by sector-specific earnings strength and structural growth drivers. In the U.S., enthusiasm around AI and digital infrastructure continued to dominate. In Canada, the rally was driven by surging gold prices and better-than-expected bank earnings. These catalysts helped sustain broad-based market strength across both markets.

Bottom line: Overall market sentiment improved in the third quarter following the volatility earlier in the year caused by tariffs. Investors benefited from resilient performance in North American equities and positive performance in fixed income. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve resumed its rate-cutting cycle, while strong consumer demand and continued capex-spending acted as key drivers for the market strength. In Canada, gold prices continued to surge amid persistent safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks. Looking ahead, we will continue to closely monitor valuation levels and underlying economic data for signals of inflection as the cycle progresses.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Investments	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Investments	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Public Investments	Jin Li Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM Sr. Quantitative Analyst	Andrew Vermeer, CFA Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Edward Ng Cheng Hin Analyst, Credit	Kate (Huyen) Vinh Analyst, Equity	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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EAMG Market Commentary January 2024

Rates & Credit – Interest rates decreased sharply in Q4 as the market priced in aggressive interest rate cuts by central banks in 2024. The prospect of lower interest rates also drove a strong risk-on tone to the market, with the risk premium on corporate bonds grinding tighter as prospects for a “soft landing” improved. The rally in interest rates resulted in the best quarter for bonds over the past 15 years, with the FTSE Canada Universe Index returning 8.3%. Corporate bonds modestly underperformed the Universe Index with a return of 7.3%. The lower return for corporate bonds was primarily driven by the fact that the corporate bond index is less sensitive to interest rate movements (as compared to the government index), partially offset by the risk-on tone to the market. Within corporate bonds, lower-rated BBBs outperformed higher-rated A bonds. Industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications outperformed those with less exposure (notably financials and securitization), consistent with the overall shift in the yield curve.

Santa Came to Town – Moving in sync with bonds, global equities jolted higher into the end of the year with cooling inflation data and dovish comments from central bankers. The U.S. market outperformed most regions last quarter with the S&P 500 returning 11.7% in USD terms, bringing the total return in 2023 to 26.3%. The TSX added 8.1% in Q4, boosting the total annual return to 11.8%. Meanwhile, major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) gained 5.0% in local currency terms over the quarter, helping the region produce a 16.8% return from the year prior. Prospects of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the Loonie rally into year-end and resultantly, investors of Canadian dollar securities witnessed enhanced returns. Strong domestic U.S. economic data helped value pockets of the market outperform. That said, this was not a synchronized trend as China’s economic disappointment weighed on the performance of EAFE.

U.S. Fundamentals – Our work shows that investors are shifting their focus away from operating margins and towards the ability to sustain debt levels ahead of renewing debt obligations. Corporate earnings beat modest expectations last quarter, contracting by less-than-expected on a year-over-year basis. Resilient operating margins continue to attract investors into equities. After three consecutive quarters of improving forward earnings guidance, we observed that the number of major companies expecting deteriorating financial performance grew to ~35%. We note that this is a sharp contrast relative to the optimistic run-up in equity valuations. In general, corporate pessimism has been underpinned by concerns for the health of the consumer, increasing wage pressures, and inflation.

U.S. Quant Factors – While mega-cap technology stocks gave back some ground in the second half, crowding into the magnificent 7 remains noticeable with the cap weighted S&P 500 outperforming the equal weighted index by 12.5% last year. That said, value areas of the market – which underperformed through the first three quarters of the year – were top performing companies last quarter as the prospects for an economic “soft-landing” improved with U.S. inflation continuing to ease without substantial deteriorations of employment or output data. Quality-growth businesses initially outperformed as the higher-for-longer narrative continued to drive investors toward large cash-rich companies with stable margins. That said, this basket of companies gave back relative returns into quarter-end as weakness in operating margins persisted, making fundamentals appear stretched. Low volatility stocks (i.e. stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement and lower price volatility) rallied to start the quarter before dovish comments from central bankers improved risk-sentiment and ultimately pushed this basket lower on a relative basis. Lastly, dividend growth companies, which include businesses with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, underperformed the broader index as market participants punished businesses that slowed capital growth projects during the rising interest rate environment. While operating margins have declined, the basket’s strong cash flow and low debt burden may be advantageous if the market’s anticipation of impending interest rate cuts proves to be incorrect or mistimed.

Canadian Fundamentals – Although Canadian companies exceeded bleak forecasts last quarter, earnings continue to contract on a year-over-year basis. Return on equity (ROE) – a gauge of how efficiently a corporation generates profits – continued to decline last quarter while corporate costs of capital remain elevated. In essence, Canadian companies are generating less value relative to their financing cost. Value creation underpins the sustainability of dividend payments, which are a unique and desirable attribute of the Canadian market. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada held its overnight interest rate unchanged with market participants forecasting a higher probability of interest rate cuts in 2024. On the expectations of easing monetary conditions, dividend yields compressed while earnings forecasts improved with analysts predicting that index aggregate earnings will grow 6% to 8% in 2024. At a sector level, the energy industry’s financial performance normalized – in line with expectations – as weakening oil demand expectations overshadowed geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, ultimately pushing crude prices ~21% lower last quarter. The industrials and financials sectors beat expectations, helping offset softer-than-expected results from the consumer staples and technology sectors.

Canadian Quant Factors – The Canadian banks underperformed for most of the year as they reported increasing provisions for nonperforming loans, reflecting forecasts of worsening economic conditions. That said, expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024 helped tame recession fears and eased concerns of slowing loan growth, propelling banks higher in the fourth quarter as they appeared more stable and therefore favourable than prior estimates. The high-quality basket underperformed last quarter as improving risk sentiment in the market reduced the attractiveness of secure companies with lower earnings variability. Furthermore, high dividend payers with solid growth prospects outperformed in the fourth quarter as market participants rewarded companies that demonstrated a strong ability to support future dividends and punished high yielding businesses with less certain financial capabilities.

Views From the Frontline Rates – Interest rates declined sharply in Q4 as inflation continued to trend lower, fears of excess bond supply declined, and the Federal Open Market Committee signaled that the next change to their overnight policy interest rate would likely be lower. Labour market and consumer spending data remain resilient however businesses have indicated slowing across industries, more price-sensitive consumers, rising delinquencies, and concerns about the high cost of debt. Central banks remain committed to achieving their 2% inflation target and most acknowledge that interest rates have likely peaked.

Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) tightened materially over the quarter, with a strong risk on tone to the market as investors priced in lower interest rates in 2024 and a “soft-landing” to economic concerns. Corporate bond supply was well received by the market. On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, and as such, we remain cautious on corporate bonds and have a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable.

Equity – In the U.S., we allocated exposure to value names which outperformed over the quarter as the macroeconomic outlook improved on the backdrop of rate cut expectations. Looking forward, we expect that margins will continue to normalize as Covid-induced pent up demand fades. While we do not forecast margins to compress at an alarming rate, we believe sticky wage and input costs will continue to pressure businesses while consumers exhibit further exhaustion. As such, we are shifting our focus toward the balance between company reinvestment in capital projects and upcoming debt refinancing requirements. In line with this view, we favour businesses with stable cash flows and decreased debt loads as we believe they present an attractive contrarian opportunity if soft-landing projections prove to be overstated. Within Canada, we remain attentive to the inverse movements of ROE relative to financing costs over 2023. With the excess between ROE and financing costs compressing, businesses’ ability to create value appears more stretched than earlier in 2023. Therefore, we continue to favour high quality companies in Canada, which is typically defined by high ROE, stable earnings variability, and low financial leverage. Geographically, the U.S. economy appears to be in healthier condition with inflation easing while employment and output data remain stable and hence, our focus will be on capital expenditures. EAFE – which is generally more economically linked to China than North America – contains a large bucket of stable, high-quality businesses that may benefit from any upside economic surprises out of China. Lastly, through the lens of a Canadian investor, the Loonie’s relative value versus other major currencies presents another resource in our investment mandate to derive excess return.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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