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EAMG Market Commentary August 2022
August 2022
The S&P 500 fell into bear market territory over the first half of 2022 with the index down -20.6%. This represented a top 10 ranking amongst the most dismal back-to-back quarterly performances going back to 1928. While comparisons have been made to the inflation driven bear market of 1973-74, the economic backdrop today has some significant differences including greater production capacity (factory utilization rates are running about 20% lower vs the 70’s) and a meaningful decline in raw industrial prices which have fallen -11% over the quarter. While these economic anecdotes are potential positives for the future, it’s important to remain cognizant that prices remain elevated.
As such, the US Federal Reserve seems to be taking every opportunity to telegraph their intentions of raising interest rates at the expense of both market and economic performance, so long as inflation remains a threat. Given this hawkish tone, the market narrative has morphed from fears of inflation to a fed driven recession. As a result, the move in the bond market has been swift with the 10-year treasury yield peaking at approximately 3.5% in June to today’s level of 2.7% (lower rates = higher bond prices). This positive bond performance reflects the consensus view that inflation is temporary (2023 CPI forecasts are approximately 3.6% vs the second quarter’s 8.7% CPI reading) and could allow the Fed to adjust their higher interest rate trajectory downward. The Fed also remains confident that a soft landing is achievable, and a recession avoidable.
Investors seem less convinced however, given the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing before, and so it’s no surprise equity markets entered a bear market over the quarter, and currently remain in a technical correction (defined as losses greater than -10%). To better assess future performance, we closely monitor earnings results to understand how companies are navigating these economic trends. With nearly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, the results have been better than expected, but still the EPS beat rate and magnitude of beats (actual vs expectation) remain below 5-year averages. This tells us companies are finding today’s economic conditions more challenging than the recent past. Consumer sectors including marketing, retail, autos and textiles posted the 2nd worst performance vs other sectors while the Financials sector saw the greatest challenges with aggregate EPS falling by -15% year-over-year. Wall Street analysts have started to revise S&P 500 forward growth estimates lower, a trend which we expect will continue for several quarters ahead. The forward (12-month blended) P/E ratio of 17.5 times remains 1.5 multiple points above the long-term average which potentially suggests risks may not be fully priced in.
In terms of the S&P/TSX Composite, after declining nearly -14% in Q2 as recession fears around the world jeopardized the global demand outlook, its’ since rebounded over 4.0%. Still, valuation remains below longer-term averages at 11.8x forward earnings with the heavier weighted Financials and Energy sectors trading at 9.5x and 7.9x, respectively. TSX earnings expectations have stalled as of late but downward revisions are lagging US and European counterparts. Additionally, the domestic labour market remains tight which has allowed the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive rate hike path to curb soaring inflation. For most of 2022 the TSX has benefitted from surging commodity prices but an economic slowdown in China resulting from its commitment to a zero-Covid policy and a potential global recession could prove to be a challenge for the Canadian market.
Equity markets on average lose 30% of their value in recession led bear markets. If we use this as a potential road map, it suggests the S&P 500 could have further to fall. Using past performance as a forward-looking tool however is an imperfect technique and used in isolation of what’s happening today can often mislead.
Accounting for today’s backdrop, we come up with three scenarios of varying probabilities. The first is the most optimistic and includes an engineered soft landing by the Fed, meaning no recession and inflation cools. A less optimistic view is the fed tames inflation with higher interest rates but tips the economy into a mild-to-moderate recession. The outcome would be consumer spending and corporate hiring slow as a result of tighter financial conditions, and therefore financial results are negatively impacted. The least optimistic scenario is one where stagflationary conditions emerge as inflation continues to accelerate at the expense of growth despite higher interest rates, in other words the Fed loses control. The net result would be similar to our second scenario but with much more dire results in terms of unemployment, household spending and impacts to corporate profitability. While we don’t rule out any of the above scenarios completely, we assign the highest probability to the second one where macro economic issues get resolved at some point in the future, but the full effects of inflation and a possible recession have yet to be priced into the market. Currently, this view translates into a slight underweight equity position versus our benchmark with a tilt towards low volatility and defensive strategies along with an overlay of value and dividend paying securities. In other words, we’ve de-risked the portfolios relative to our benchmark to manage potential downside risks but remain meaningfully invested an on absolute basis. As always, time in the market tends to overcome trying to time the market, and so employing a strategic and diversified strategy is often the most prudent approach.
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Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. - [pdf] Do you know Darren
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Equitable Life of Canada ends 2020 in a position of financial strength
Equitable Life of Canada is pleased to report that our strategic approach continued to serve us well in 2020, despite operating in a global pandemic.
Equitable Life, one of Canada’s largest mutual life insurance companies, closed out 2020 with strong earnings and solid growth.
The Company reported earnings of $153 million, equating to a return on policyholders’ equity of 16%. This result was driven by strong sales, investment performance, positive impacts from favourable expense ratios and reserve assumption changes.
“There is no doubt the global pandemic has had, and continues to have, a profound impact on the lives of Canadians and created challenges for all of us in 2020 that we could never have envisioned,” said Ron Beettam, Equitable Life’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “Thanks to the resiliency and commitment of our entire team, we effectively responded to unfavourable impacts caused by the pandemic, including market volatility, and continued to achieve a high growth rate on most key measures, ending 2020 in a position of financial strength.”
Equitable Life reported premiums and deposits of $1.7 billion in 2020, contributing to $6.0 billion of assets under administration. This growth was supported by very strong sales during the pandemic, as more Canadians turned to insurance to protect the financial security of their families. Dividends to participating policyholders increased by 24% over the prior year.
The Individual Insurance business reported 2020 sales of $149 million, reflecting the third consecutive year of double-digit sales growth. Savings & Retirement reported sales of $401 million, driven by sales of segregated funds. Group Benefits delivered sales of $46 million, despite competitive industry pricing strategies and the impact the pandemic had on businesses.
Equitable Life finished the year with an impressive LICAT ratio of 166%, well above the regulatory target and one of the highest in the industry. This capital result demonstrates that we are well-positioned to continue meeting our commitments to our policyholders. In addition, DBRS Limited (DBRS Morningstar) upgraded our Financial Strength rating to A (high) with Stable Trends in September.
“While we don’t yet know what future impacts the global pandemic could have on our business, we know we can face the future with confidence,” said Beettam. “I am very proud of all that we have accomplished together, especially throughout this unpredictable year, and I know the Company is very well positioned to meet the challenges ahead and will continue building on those achievements by focusing on organic and profitable growth across all lines of business, with a continued emphasis on meeting the needs of our policyholders and distribution partners.”
2020 Financial Highlights
- Net income of $153 million, for a return on policyholders' equity of 16%
- Capital strength, as measured by the LICAT ratio, ended the year at 166%
- Participating policyholders' equity surpassed $1 billion
- Premiums and deposits increased by 6.8% to $1.7 billion
- Sales of $149 million in Individual Insurance, $401 million in Savings and Retirement, and $46 million in Group Benefits
- Assets under administration grew 17.6% to $6 billion
- Benefits and payments to policyholders of $820 million
- Dividends to participating policyholders increased by 24% to $61 million
About Equitable Life of Canada
Canadians have turned to Equitable Life since 1920 to protect what matters most. We work with independent advisors across Canada to offer individual insurance, savings & retirement, and group benefits solutions to meet your needs.
Equitable Life is not your typical financial services company. We have the knowledge, experience and ability to find solutions that work for you. We’re friendly, caring and interested in helping. As a mutual company, we are not driven by shareholder pressures for quarterly results. This allows us to focus on management strategies that foster prudent long-term growth, continuity and stability. We are dedicated to meeting our commitments to customers – now and in the future.
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - November 2022
The importance of timely plan member eligibility updates*
Effective Dec. 1, 2022, we are implementing a revised process for managing plan member and dependent health and dental claims that have been incurred and paid after coverage has been terminated. This new process is consistent with industry practices.
If health or dental claims have been incurred and paid after a plan member’s termination date but before we received notice of the termination, we will align the plan member’s or dependent’s termination date with the service date of the last paid claim, retaining premiums up until that date.
If no claims have been incurred and paid after the termination date, Equitable Life will process the termination as requested and refund any excess premium, subject to a maximum premium refund credit of three months.
Currently, we process the termination as requested and attempt to recover any claim overpayments directly from the plan member. We then refund any excess premiums that have been paid, subject to the maximum refund credit amount.
To avoid claims being incurred and paid after a plan member’s termination date, it is important for your clients to update plan member and dependent eligibility dates on or before the effective date of the change.
If you have any questions about the process your clients should follow for updating plan member eligibility, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.QuickAssess®: Absence and accommodation request review services*
It can be difficult to navigate chronic or complex cases of absenteeism or accommodation requests. That’s where QuickAssess® can help.
QuickAssess is an optional, fee-per-use service that can provide your clients with an unbiased, timely assessment of complex plan member absences and workplace accommodation requests. Our disability experts can provide recommendations to help your clients manage:- Workplace absences
- Chronic or patterned absenteeism
- Requests to modify workplaces or duties
- Return-to-work coordination
- Employee Insurance sick leaves
For more information on using QuickAssess, including eligibility requirements, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
**Within two business days of receiving a completed QuickAssess Absence and Accommodation Review Referral Form and all required information. For more complex referrals, more time will be required.Finding a health care provider with TELUS eClaims direct billing*
By visiting TELUS’s Find a Provider page, your clients’ plan members can now easily search for paramedical and vision providers who are registered on the TELUS Health eClaims network and who can submit claims directly to us on behalf of their patients. Searches can be filtered by postal code to help plan members find the most convenient provider options.
As our direct billing provider for pharmacy, vision and paramedical claims, TELUS Health has an extensive network of 70,000 health care providers that provide direct billing to streamline the claims process.
Please note, plan members should always check Equitable Life’s list of de-listed providers before selecting a health care provider. The list is available for your clients and their plan members on EquitableHealth.ca, and is updated regularly.
For more information about TELUS eClaims, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.First phase of the Canada Dental Benefit proposed for Dec. 1, 2022*
The federal government’s new Canada Dental Benefit is proposed to take effect on Dec. 1, 2022, subject to Parliamentary approval. The program will cover eligible expenses retroactive to Oct. 1, 2022, and this first phase would apply to Canadians under 12 years of age.
If implemented, the Canada Dental Benefit will provide dental care to Canadian families with under $90,000 adjusted net income annually. By 2025, the federal government expects to extend the benefit to children under 18, senior citizens and Canadians with disabilities.
Parents or guardians will be required to apply for this coverage through the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) and must not have private dental coverage for the child(ren).
This new program will have no impact on your clients’ dental coverage and no action is required on their part.
* Indicates content that will be shared with your clients.
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National Pharmacare (Plan NP) takes effect in B.C. on March 1
In this issue:
National Pharmacare (Plan NP) takes effect in B.C. on March 1
Travel coverage details plan members should know if they’re in or going to Mexico*
*Indicates content we will share with your clients.
National Pharmacare (Plan NP) takes effect in B.C. on March 1
The Province of British Columbia (B.C.) will implement the first phase of the National Pharmacare Act, also known as Bill C64 (Act), on March 1, 2026.
The new program will be called National Pharmacare (Plan NP). The province joins Manitoba and Prince Edward Island, who have already implemented the first phase of their own programs. All three provinces, along with Yukon, signed bilateral pharmacare agreements with the federal government last year.
National Pharmacare (Plan NP) coverage details
The federal government has agreed to provide universal coverage for many diabetes drugs and contraceptives, including deductibles, during the first phase of implementation of the Act. Equitable will no longer cover drugs that are eligible for coverage under Plan NP.
Diabetes devices and supplies are not included in the first phase of plan implementation. However, expanded coverage for certain diabetes-related devices and supplies is expected to begin in B.C. on April 1, 2026.
Since B.C. already offers universal coverage of contraceptives through its provincial pharmacare program, the province is using that portion of the federal funding to cover menopausal hormone therapy (MHT), also called hormone replacement therapy (HRT).
Many diabetes medications such as metformin, insulin, sulfonylureas and SGLT-2 inhibitors will be fully covered under Plan NP.
Some diabetes medications and MHTs will only be partially covered when the program takes effect. As well, many diabetes medications will continue to require Special Authority through the province.
What will Equitable plan members need to do?Coverage will be provided automatically at the pharmacy counter. Plan members simply need to present a prescription for a covered medication and their Medical Services Plan of B.C. (MSP) card to their pharmacist. If a plan member isn’t fully enrolled in the MSP yet, their pharmacist will help them secure coverage under Plan NP.
The pharmacist will charge the provincial plan directly for the relevant medications. There will be no direct impact to plan members or their experience at the pharmacy for fully covered drugs.
Where do GLP-1 drugs fit in?
GLP-1 agonist drugs will not be covered under Plan NP. Equitable plan members who are prescribed this type of drug to treat diabetes must try a first-line diabetic treatment before we can deem them eligible for coverage of the GLP-1 agonist.
Plan members who are already taking a GLP-1 agonist to treat diabetes will continue to be eligible for coverage. New plan members or plan members with new prescriptions for GLP-1 agonists must provide us proof that shows they’ve tried a first-line diabetic treatment to confirm eligibility—unless we already have a previous record of their insulin use. Proof can be either a past receipt or a claim statement.
Our priority is supporting the best outcomes for plan sponsors and their members. We are working with TELUS Health, our pharmacy benefits manager, to keep you updated as more details become available.
Travel coverage details plan members should know if they’re in or going to Mexico
Plan members with Travel Assist medical emergency coverage included in their benefits plan should keep the following information in mind if they’re planning travel to Mexico or if they’re in the country now.
Due to recent violence in Mexico, the Government of Canada has issued the following travel advice to anyone in or planning to visit the country.
Plan members are not covered if they receive out-of-province services where the Canadian government had issued a warning to avoid all or non‑essential travel before they entered the country.
Plan members should contact Trident Global Assistance, the company that administers our Travel Assist benefits, before departing if they have questions about their coverage or to confirm if they’re covered for travel to their specific destination.
Here’s how plan members can reach the Trident Global Assistance toll-free 24-hour emergency hotline:
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In Canada or the U.S: 1-800-321-9998
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Elsewhere: Call collect at 519-742-3287
They should be prepared to provide the following information:
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Name
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Group policy number
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Certificate number
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Government health insurance plan number
If a plan member arrived in Mexico before the travel advisory was issued and are past their day allowance, they should call Trident if they need to have their day maximum extended past the allowable period.
Equitable’s Travel Assist medical emergency coverage does not include any trip cancellation or trip interruption benefits.
Communicating to plan members
We are making every effort to share this information with affected plan members. Please encourage your clients who have Travel Assist coverage included in their benefits plan to share this message with their plan members.
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