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Market Commentary April 2025
Key Takeaways for Q1
- Economic policy became more uncertain with fluctuating tariff announcements from the U.S. and its trading partners.
- Global stocks markets experienced heightened volatility year-to-date, reflecting the negative repercussions of tariffs for highly integrated global economies.
- Within U.S. markets, investors rotated out of growth stocks into value and defensive areas of the market.
- Bond markets performed well during the quarter as interest rates moved lower.
- Most central banks continued to ease monetary policy by reducing their target interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve was a notable exception, electing to wait for greater clarity before lowering rates further.
Economic and Market UpdateEconomic Summary: In the U.S., the latest GDP data confirmed solid economic growth in 2024. However, as President Trump pushes forward his economic agenda, uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and global trade have dampened market sentiment. Inflation pressures persisted, with the rate of inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, with unemployment rate staying low compared to historical norms. The Federal Reserve shifted to a more cautious approach, holding the policy rate steady through Q1 at the range 4.25% - 4.5%. The central bank raised its inflation forecast, lowered growth projections, and warned that “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.” U.S. bond yields were lower for most maturity dates during the first quarter, as the market priced in more growth concerns and anticipated more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

In Canada, recent GDP data showed stronger-than-expected growth. The inflation rate remained close to the 2% target but rose more than expected in February, and the labour market showed signs of improvement. U.S. tariffs continued to be a significant concern, and it is prompting businesses and consumers to become more cautious and slow their spending. The Bank of Canada warned that the economic impact of the tariffs could be “severe” and expected weaker growth in the coming quarters. For those reasons the Bank of Canada continued its easing cycle, cutting rates by 25 basis points at each of the January and March meetings, bringing the policy rate to 2.75%. Bond yields in Canada were also lower, with short-term interest rates decreasing faster than long-term interest rates as the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts outpaced market expectations.

Bond Markets: During Q1 2025, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned 2.0% as interest rates declined across all tenors. Although interest rates fell, this was partially offset by higher credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk). Consequently, while corporate bonds still generated a positive return on the quarter, they underperformed government bonds. Widening credit spreads reflected the risk-off tone to the market, with on-off-on-off-on(?) tariffs contributing to the uncertainty. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed worse than higher-quality A-rated bonds. While credit spreads are higher than they were in December and January, they are still expensive compared to longer term averages. Corporate bond issuance remained robust up until the last week of March, as investor demand kept deals well supported. Overall, the market took in $40 billion in new issuance, the second highest on record, spread over 82 bonds. While corporate bonds are more attractive than in January 2025, we believe the more likely path is towards higher credit spreads as U.S. tariffs impact global growth. We have maintained our conservative view with a bias towards shorter-dated credit but remain ready to invest in longer dated corporate bonds as valuations become more attractive.

Stock Markets – Overview:
Uncertainty surrounding the scope and severity of new tariffs led investors to reassess global economic growth prospects and weighed on risk sentiment. As a result, the S&P 500 declined 4.3% over the quarter, underperforming Canadian and international markets. Within the U.S., investors rotated out of previously favoured growth stocks with loftier valuations – including members of the Magnificent 7 – into less volatile and value-cyclical companies. Meanwhile, Canadian equities returned 1.5% in Q1 despite ongoing trade negotiations and uncertain economic growth forecasts. Surging commodity prices helped the materials and energy sectors outperform, offsetting weakness in the technology and industrials sectors. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) were supported over the quarter by the introduction of a new German fiscal stimulus package and signs of improving Chinese economic growth. Following the quarter end, President Trump announced global tariffs on April 2nd, prompting some trading partners to hit back with retaliatory tariffs. The S&P 500 lost a record $5.2 trillion over two trading sessions and re-entered correction territory, with other global equity markets moving in tandem.
U.S. Equities: While the impact of tariffs has made investors more apprehensive, we have yet to witness a deterioration in financial performance. In fact, U.S. earnings continued to exceed forecasts last quarter, with approximately 70% of companies beating expectations. Furthermore, our bottom-up analysis shows that the skew of corporate earnings surprises continues to tilt positive. That said, we note that companies are providing more cautious guidance amid the increased economic uncertainty and that these earnings largely reflect conditions in 2024, not 2025. Notably, consumer stocks like Walmart have lowered growth forecasts for 2025, citing concerns surrounding consumer confidence and macroeconomic conditions. In addition to clouding the outlook, geopolitical shocks like sweeping tariffs may risk changing how companies choose to operate, including the structure of supply chains and sources of revenue. At this stage, it is still unclear how long these trade tensions will last, as that depends on how other countries choose to respond. If the tariffs are rolled back quickly, many companies may be able to absorb the temporary extra costs without serious damage to profits, and the broader economy could avoid lasting harm. But if the tariffs remain in place for a long time, the consequences could be much more serious; companies might have to change how they operate, restructure supply chains, and raise prices to deal with long-term pressure on profits.
Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of worrisome trade developments, the Bank of Canada continued to ease monetary policy. While lower rates have helped Canadian companies report better-than-expected profit growth, consensus earnings expectations for 2025 have been revised 2% lower since the beginning of the year, reflecting the expectations for tariff headwinds. Falling bond yields made high quality, high dividend paying companies more attractive, helping this group outperform. Furthermore, the price of raw industrials – a basket of commodities – surged higher over the quarter and as a result, commodity-oriented companies benefitted. More specifically, the materials sector performed strongly with gold prices reaching new all-time highs throughout the quarter. However, if trade frictions continue to escalate and weaker growth projections materialize into a real economic slowdown, the Canadian market, given its cyclical nature and heavy reliance on commodity-driven businesses, remains particularly vulnerable to external headwinds. Moreover, given Canada’s weaker fundamental backdrop, we caution that the recent outperformance of Canadian equities relative to the U.S. may prove short-lived, particularly if trade tension persists.
Bottom line:
Heightened uncertainty surrounding global trade policies, coupled with deteriorating economic growth projections, continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Bond prices benefited from the flight to less-risky assets, with lower interest rates in anticipation of weaker economic conditions. In equity markets, the introduction of broad-based tariffs increased market volatility and drove major indices sharply lower year-to-date. Looking forward, we remain cautious of the recent outperformance of Canadian and international markets relative to the U.S. While tariffs began as a U.S. policy move, the ripple effects extend far beyond American borders, reflecting the systemic fragility that underpins global trade. If trade barriers persist, businesses may be forced to make structural shifts in their operations and review their current business models. Until markets achieve greater clarity on global trade policies, we continue to prioritize exposure to diversified large-cap stocks in the U.S., over defensive or growth-heavy positions. Within Canada, we continue to favour high quality, high dividend paying names with less sensitivity to downgrades in global growth.
Downloadable Copy
ADVISOR USE ONLYMark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public Portfolio ManagementIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public Portfolio ManagementJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Portfolio ManagementJin Li
Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA
Senior Analyst, Equity
Andrew Vermeer
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
Francie Chen
Analyst, Rates
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
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Savings & Retirement Policy and Procedure updates regarding Electronic Signatures
We have updated our policies and procedures regarding electronic signatures in the Savings and Retirement department. We are now able to accept electronically signed documents, from all major third-party signing vendors.
Including esign@equitable.ca as a non-signing reviewer is the preferred method as it ensures the security embedded documents are accurately and immediately available for Equitable. We will be automatically notified when signing is complete and will download eSigned forms immediately for processing. Including esign@equitable.ca as a non-signing reviewer is secure, quick, and efficient. Documents no longer need to be emailed to us – eSigned documents are sent directly to us once all signatures are completed, therefore you do not need to notify us once the documents are signed.
When esign@equitable.ca is not used to submit electronically signed documents, the following criteria are required:- The original signed form and audit trail with all the security features intact
- The email address used to sign must match what is in our files (as provided on the application, for electronic policy delivery or through previous communication). If an email address has changed, or we don’t have an email contact for the signer, we will follow up for confirmation.
A guide on how to use esign@equitable.ca can be found here.
Please note that Equitable does not accept digital signatures (images or fonts of a signature which are not stamped).
Date posted: June 13, 2024 -
Are Canadians more FHSA-savvy in 2025?
Recent insights have shown that a significant number of Canadians are unfamiliar with the First Home Savings Account (FHSA). However, the landscape is gradually evolving. While many are still getting acquainted with the features and benefits of this savings tool, financial advisors and industry experts note that awareness is steadily increasing. The knowledge gap is beginning to close. The largest group of contributors were Canadians aged 25 to 34, accounting for over 57% of all FHSA users1. This suggests that Generation Z and younger millennials are leading the charge in embracing the FHSA.
Why is this age group so quick to adopt? The FHSA offers a unique blend of benefits. These include contributions that are tax-deductible like an RRSP and withdrawals for a first home purchase are tax-free like a TFSA. Financial author David Chilton even called it “the greatest deal in the history of Canadian savings.”1
Despite the strong uptake among younger, higher-earning Canadians, there’s still work to be done. Many older Canadians and those with lower incomes remain unaware of the FHSA’s benefits and unsure how it fits into their financial plans. This presents a clear opportunity for advisors to continue educating—especially through digital channels and personalized advice.
The FHSA is proving to be more than just a niche product—it’s becoming a cornerstone of first-time homebuyers’ strategy. With continued outreach and education, more Canadians will be empowered to take advantage of this valuable savings tool.
Want to learn more? Speak to your Director, Investment Sales.
1 Source: https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2025/04/fhsa-sees-strong-uptake-among-young-high-earning-canadians-in-its-first-year/
Date posted: October 2 2025 -
Digital Payment Options for Your Client’s First and Subsequent Annual Payments for Individual Life a
This article has been updated to reflect changes to the Pre-Authorized Debit (PAD) for new business annual premiums – see below #2.
To enhance the ease of doing business with Equitable Life, we have added some additional payment methods to help your clients make their first and subsequent annual premium payments easily.
Three digital payment options for annual premium payments:
1. Online bill payment - Your client can pay their annual premium easily and quickly by using the online bill payment option through their financial institution. On your client’s banking website, they must set up “EQUITABLE LIFE-INDIVIDUAL LIFE & CI” as a “PAYEE”. Use the 9 (or 7) digit policy number as the “account number” then pay this new “bill”. This is the preferred option for annual payments.
2. Pre-Authorized Debit (PAD) - For policies where annual premiums are $2,500 or greater, your client now has the additional option of an annual PAD payment. Your client needs to provide a signed PAD authorization form, or a signed letter of direction that indicates they have read and agree to the terms of the PAD. This is a one-time authorization and needs to be repeated for subsequent annual payments.
3. Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT) or Wire Transfer - If online bill payment or a one-time PAD will not meet your client’s needs, such as when transferring funds from another financial institution or business to Equitable Life, and the annual premiums are $20,000 or greater, then an EFT is now an option that is available. A wire transfer is available on an exception basis only and is subject to approval.
Please contact your Regional Sales Team or customer service team for further questions.
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Market Commentary April 2026

Key Takeaways
• Markets started 2026 constructively, with positive returns in both stock and bond markets in the first two months of the year. However, the war on Iran by the U.S. and Israel drove significant changes to markets in March. The biggest driver was the spike in oil prices. Oil prices increased over 70% during the quarter to over US$100 per barrel as 20% of global oil production became trapped in the Middle East when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
• Canadian equities returned 3.9% in the first quarter, outperforming U.S. equities which lost -4.3%. The Canadian market benefitted from its 40% exposure to strong performing Energy, Materials and Utilities sectors, which each gained over 10% in Q1. Conversely, the U.S. market has much less exposure to those strong performing sectors and therefore fell as geopolitical tensions weighed on performance of most other sectors.
• Canadian bonds posted modest gains as early-quarter strength was largely offset by March weakness. Rising commodity prices reignited inflation fears and prompted speculation for central bank interest rate hikes. Credit spreads widened as concerns regarding defaults and liquidity in the private credit market intensified.
• The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve held policy rates unchanged during the first quarter. Both central banks maintained a wait-and-see approach amid slowing labour markets, persistent inflation risks, and heightened global uncertainty.
Economic and Market UpdateEconomic Summary: The U.S. economy continued to grow at a steady pace in the first quarter. Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target. The labour market showed signs of cooling as hiring slowed, but the unemployment rate remained stable. However, higher energy prices and risks to global supply chains added near term inflation pressures and weighed on the global outlook. The Federal Reserve held its policy interest rate unchanged during the quarter, maintaining the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Chair Powell highlighted ongoing uncertainty and reiterated that the Federal Reserve is well positioned to adjust policy as economic conditions evolve.
In Canada, economic growth remained subdued in the first quarter as excess supply persisted, and the labour market softened. Inflation stayed close to the 2.0% target, though rising global energy prices increased short term inflation risks. Trade uncertainty continued to weigh on confidence and business activity. The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate steady at 2.25% throughout the quarter. The Governing Council noted it stands ready to respond if the economic outlook shifts materially.
Bond Markets: The Canada Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.23% in the first quarter. A strong start to the year in January and February (+2.25%) was mostly offset by a weak March (-1.97%), as higher oil prices from the war in Iran led to higher interest rates on Canadian bonds (bond prices fall as interest rates go up). The increase in interest rates was most predominant in shorter term bonds, with higher oil prices driving inflation fears. These inflation fears reframed the market’s interest rate cut expectations for 2026: a 40% chance of an interest cut by the Bank of Canada has now shifted to a 70% chance of not just one, but two 25 basis point increases to the Bank of Canada overnight rate in 2026. In addition, the war in Iran has resulted in a higher risk premium for corporate bonds: credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) moved higher in March after reaching record low levels in January and February. These higher credit spreads resulted in corporate bonds modestly underperforming the overall index, albeit still with positive returns. Despite the modest risk off tone, investors remain buyers of corporate bonds as evidenced by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to set new records, with an impressive $50 billion in new issuance in the quarter, a record start to the year and 23% higher than the same period in 2025.
Stock Markets: The first quarter of 2026 marked a period of heightened investor caution with geopolitical tensions rising. Equity markets remained under pressure in March, as dip buyers remained cautious. Early market volatility was driven by several geopolitical developments, including Japan’s snap election, events in Venezuela, and U.S. interest in Greenland. Private credit markets also came under pressure as liquidity tightened and default risks increased, particularly in semi-liquid lending structures. The war on Iran raised concerns around demand destruction and inflation, pushing oil prices above US$100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. Gold continued to rise strongly early in the quarter. However, it later recorded its sharpest decline in years, driven by central bank selling. Despite this pullback, gold finished the quarter up 8% and continues to be viewed as a key safe-haven asset.
U.S. Equities: U.S. equities entered the first quarter with strong momentum, supported by robust earnings growth from technology companies. While earnings results confirmed this strength, investor sentiment weakened, particularly toward Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies. Rapid progress in AI agents developed by firms such as Anthropic and Google highlighted how quickly generative AI could automate core SaaS functions. As a result, software stocks sold off sharply in February, triggering a broader rotation away from largecap growth. Furthermore, tighter financial conditions and rising geopolitical tensions reduced risk tolerance and drove sharp sector rotation. The Energy sector led market performance, while Technology lagged and Financials underperformed due to stress in credit markets.
Canadian Equities: The Canadian stock market was supported by its high exposure to commodities. That structural tilt helped Canadian equities outperform U.S. equities as macro narratives shifted toward inflation concerns and supply risks. Performance during the quarter was marked by a sharp whipsaw between gold and oil, reflecting shifting investor sentiment. Investors sold gold aggressively and scrambled to source U.S. dollars as financial conditions tightened. Conversely, oil prices rose sharply on Middle East supply disruptions, lifting Energy stocks to become the strongest-performing sector of the quarter, up 29%.
Bottom line: The first quarter showed how quickly geopolitical shocks can reshape sectors’ performance. Canada outperformed U.S. growth markets due to its higher exposure to commodities, as energy prices rose and inflation concerns returned. The sharp move in gold and oil prices highlighted the market’s sensitivity to macro developments. The war against Iran forced investors to reprice both inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Looking ahead, geopolitical stability, energy prices, and central bank policy are likely to remain key drivers of market performance and sector leadership.
Downloadable Copy
Mark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public InvestmentsIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public InvestmentsJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Public InvestmentsJin Li
Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM
Sr. Quantitative Analyst
Andrew Vermeer, CFA
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
Edward Ng Cheng Hin
Analyst, Credit
Kate (Huyen) Vinh
Analyst, Equity
Francie Chen
Analyst, Rates
ADVISOR USE ONLY
Except for statements of historical fact, all statements in this document are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s current best judgment as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may be materially different from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions, or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained in this document. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and to not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. -
Coming soon — enhanced Equitable Generations™ universal life (UL)
See what’s ahead
Equitable Generations UL insurance solution is about to get even better! In the next few weeks, Level cost of insurance (COI)* option will be added to our offering. The new Level COI option will add more value, choices, and opportunities for clients.
The enhanced Equitable Generations is designed to meet client’s UL needs. To simplify our UL products, Equation Generation® IV UL insurance solution will soon no longer be available for new sales.
Stay tuned for more details and the effective date.
Check out the Transition Rules for new and in-progress universal life applications.
* For Level COI, only Account Value Protector is offered as a death benefit option.
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