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Market Commentary April 2026

Key Takeaways
• Markets started 2026 constructively, with positive returns in both stock and bond markets in the first two months of the year. However, the war on Iran by the U.S. and Israel drove significant changes to markets in March. The biggest driver was the spike in oil prices. Oil prices increased over 70% during the quarter to over US$100 per barrel as 20% of global oil production became trapped in the Middle East when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
• Canadian equities returned 3.9% in the first quarter, outperforming U.S. equities which lost -4.3%. The Canadian market benefitted from its 40% exposure to strong performing Energy, Materials and Utilities sectors, which each gained over 10% in Q1. Conversely, the U.S. market has much less exposure to those strong performing sectors and therefore fell as geopolitical tensions weighed on performance of most other sectors.
• Canadian bonds posted modest gains as early-quarter strength was largely offset by March weakness. Rising commodity prices reignited inflation fears and prompted speculation for central bank interest rate hikes. Credit spreads widened as concerns regarding defaults and liquidity in the private credit market intensified.
• The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve held policy rates unchanged during the first quarter. Both central banks maintained a wait-and-see approach amid slowing labour markets, persistent inflation risks, and heightened global uncertainty.
Economic and Market UpdateEconomic Summary: The U.S. economy continued to grow at a steady pace in the first quarter. Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target. The labour market showed signs of cooling as hiring slowed, but the unemployment rate remained stable. However, higher energy prices and risks to global supply chains added near term inflation pressures and weighed on the global outlook. The Federal Reserve held its policy interest rate unchanged during the quarter, maintaining the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Chair Powell highlighted ongoing uncertainty and reiterated that the Federal Reserve is well positioned to adjust policy as economic conditions evolve.
In Canada, economic growth remained subdued in the first quarter as excess supply persisted, and the labour market softened. Inflation stayed close to the 2.0% target, though rising global energy prices increased short term inflation risks. Trade uncertainty continued to weigh on confidence and business activity. The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate steady at 2.25% throughout the quarter. The Governing Council noted it stands ready to respond if the economic outlook shifts materially.
Bond Markets: The Canada Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.23% in the first quarter. A strong start to the year in January and February (+2.25%) was mostly offset by a weak March (-1.97%), as higher oil prices from the war in Iran led to higher interest rates on Canadian bonds (bond prices fall as interest rates go up). The increase in interest rates was most predominant in shorter term bonds, with higher oil prices driving inflation fears. These inflation fears reframed the market’s interest rate cut expectations for 2026: a 40% chance of an interest cut by the Bank of Canada has now shifted to a 70% chance of not just one, but two 25 basis point increases to the Bank of Canada overnight rate in 2026. In addition, the war in Iran has resulted in a higher risk premium for corporate bonds: credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) moved higher in March after reaching record low levels in January and February. These higher credit spreads resulted in corporate bonds modestly underperforming the overall index, albeit still with positive returns. Despite the modest risk off tone, investors remain buyers of corporate bonds as evidenced by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to set new records, with an impressive $50 billion in new issuance in the quarter, a record start to the year and 23% higher than the same period in 2025.
Stock Markets: The first quarter of 2026 marked a period of heightened investor caution with geopolitical tensions rising. Equity markets remained under pressure in March, as dip buyers remained cautious. Early market volatility was driven by several geopolitical developments, including Japan’s snap election, events in Venezuela, and U.S. interest in Greenland. Private credit markets also came under pressure as liquidity tightened and default risks increased, particularly in semi-liquid lending structures. The war on Iran raised concerns around demand destruction and inflation, pushing oil prices above US$100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. Gold continued to rise strongly early in the quarter. However, it later recorded its sharpest decline in years, driven by central bank selling. Despite this pullback, gold finished the quarter up 8% and continues to be viewed as a key safe-haven asset.
U.S. Equities: U.S. equities entered the first quarter with strong momentum, supported by robust earnings growth from technology companies. While earnings results confirmed this strength, investor sentiment weakened, particularly toward Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies. Rapid progress in AI agents developed by firms such as Anthropic and Google highlighted how quickly generative AI could automate core SaaS functions. As a result, software stocks sold off sharply in February, triggering a broader rotation away from largecap growth. Furthermore, tighter financial conditions and rising geopolitical tensions reduced risk tolerance and drove sharp sector rotation. The Energy sector led market performance, while Technology lagged and Financials underperformed due to stress in credit markets.
Canadian Equities: The Canadian stock market was supported by its high exposure to commodities. That structural tilt helped Canadian equities outperform U.S. equities as macro narratives shifted toward inflation concerns and supply risks. Performance during the quarter was marked by a sharp whipsaw between gold and oil, reflecting shifting investor sentiment. Investors sold gold aggressively and scrambled to source U.S. dollars as financial conditions tightened. Conversely, oil prices rose sharply on Middle East supply disruptions, lifting Energy stocks to become the strongest-performing sector of the quarter, up 29%.
Bottom line: The first quarter showed how quickly geopolitical shocks can reshape sectors’ performance. Canada outperformed U.S. growth markets due to its higher exposure to commodities, as energy prices rose and inflation concerns returned. The sharp move in gold and oil prices highlighted the market’s sensitivity to macro developments. The war against Iran forced investors to reprice both inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Looking ahead, geopolitical stability, energy prices, and central bank policy are likely to remain key drivers of market performance and sector leadership.
Downloadable Copy
Mark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public InvestmentsIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public InvestmentsJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Public InvestmentsJin Li
Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM
Sr. Quantitative Analyst
Andrew Vermeer, CFA
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
Edward Ng Cheng Hin
Analyst, Credit
Kate (Huyen) Vinh
Analyst, Equity
Francie Chen
Analyst, Rates
ADVISOR USE ONLY
Except for statements of historical fact, all statements in this document are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s current best judgment as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may be materially different from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions, or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained in this document. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and to not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. - Miscellaneous
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - September 2020
In this issue:
Enhancements to Equitable EZClaim Mobile
New reports available on EquitableHealth.ca* Indicates content that will be shared with your clients.
Enhancements to Equitable EZClaim® Mobile*
We’ve updated our Equitable EZClaim mobile app to process vision claims faster, to provide a new option for submitting documents and to increase password security.
Faster vision claims processing and payment
Equitable Life now provides faster processing of vision claims submitted via EZClaim Mobile.
This means plan members can find out the status of their vision claim almost instantaneously. And, for approved claims, they will receive payment even sooner – often in as little as 24 hours.
In order to allow for instant processing and faster payment, plan members will be prompted to enter some additional information, including their practitioner’s name, the date of the expense, the type of expense and amount of the expense when submitting their claims for these services.
Equitable Life plan members can submit all vision claims via Equitable EZClaim, including coordination of benefits and Health Care Spending Account claims.
Submit documents from a mobile device
We have added our Document Submission tool to EZClaim Mobile so plan members can conveniently submit documents directly from their mobile device. Applications, change forms, statement of health forms and more can all be easily uploaded whenever and wherever they are.
Improved security with stronger passwords
To help you, your clients and plan members better protect personal information, we have increased the maximum length of passwords for both EZClaim Online and EZClaim Mobile from 12 to 32 characters. This longer character limit makes it easier to create stronger and more secure passwords.
There is no change for plan members, plan administrators or advisors. All existing passwords will continue to function. However, if you choose to update your password you will now be able to choose longer passwords or passphrases.
Why should I change my password?
Changing your password frequently helps keep your information safe. The longer and more random the password, the more secure it is. To improve security even more, a passphrase is recommended.
A passphrase is a series of words or other text used like a password. Because it is much longer, a passphrase is more secure. Although the words in the phrase may be meaningful to you and easy to remember, they can be random enough that the full phrase is difficult for someone else to guess. It’s even better if you use numbers or other characters in your passphrase.
Your passphrase should be:
- Long enough to be hard to guess;
- Not a famous quotation;
- Easy to remember and type; and
- Not used in multiple places.
To change your password:
- Log in to EquitableHealth.ca
- Click on My Information > User Profile
- Click Edit
- Confirm your information and enter your new password
- Click Save
We will be announcing this enhancement to plan members on EquitableHealth.ca.
New reports available on EquitableHealth.ca*
Plan administrators and advisors with reporting access can now download three additional reports any time via the plan administrator and advisor websites on EquitableHealth.ca:
- Premium and Tax – This report provides a breakdown of premiums and taxes paid per plan member for any specific time period for all applicable benefits.
- Occupation and Earnings – This report provides current plan member earnings and occupation information and gives plan administrators an efficient way to report updates to us.
- Employee listing – This report lists all plan members’ information, including name, certificate number, date of birth, province, occupation and salary, as well as benefit coverage currently in place and HCSA allocations.
These reports can be downloaded in Excel format for easy updating, filtering or sorting.
For more information, please contact your Client Relationship Specialist.
*Indicates content that will be shared with your clients
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Tariff Turmoil and Tumultuous Markets: Taking a Longer-Term Perspective
Are clients asking about tariffs and their impact on the Canadian economy? Are you unsure how to advise them in uncertain markets? Join our exclusive webcast, "Tariff Turmoil and Tumultuous Markets: Taking a Longer-Term Perspective" to gain answers to these questions and more.
In this complimentary session, we will explore the economic and market dynamics shaping our current landscape. Equitable’s Mark Warywoda, VP of Public Investments, and Johanna Shaw, Director of Public Investments, will cover critical economic shifts in the Trump 2.0 era. Hosted by Shannon Labby, VP of Investment Sales at Equitable®, this webcast will help you navigate today's financial complexities with confidence.
Why Attend?Don't miss your chance to engage with Equitable’s industry experts and help enhance your advisory services.
• Learn about tariffs: What they are, why they're used, and their effects.
• Understand the economic implications of the US Dept. of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
• Gain insights from industry experts on investing in uncertain times.
Learn more
Continuing Education Credits
This webcast has been submitted for continuing education (CE) approval for all provinces excluding Quebec via the Insurance Council of Manitoba and Alberta Insurance Council. Upon approval, you will be sent an email notification to come back to the webcast presentation console to download your personalized certificate from the tool bar. To be eligible for CE credits, you must register individually, watch the webcast in full and complete a short quiz. It is the advisor's responsibility to ensure Continuing Education credits being offered are accepted by their licensing body. Alberta Insurance Council (AIC) credits are valid in Yukon, British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia. Insurance Council of Manitoba (ICM) credits are valid in Manitoba only.
This webcast is available in English only.
Date posted: April 10, 2025
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EAMG market commentary

March 11, 2022
Since Russia first invaded the Ukraine, there’s been no shortage of headlines and commentaries trying to make sense of the situation. This is a tragedy that from a humanitarian standpoint that can’t be made sense of and our hearts go out to the people of Ukraine and those impacted. From a market standpoint, the common thinking is that geopolitical risks, aka war, historically haven’t been associated with significant corrections in the market. So far, the market reaction has been consistent with the historical experience, with the S&P 500 down only about 1% since the start of the conflict and the S&P/TSX Composite Index up close to 4%, despite the heightened daily volatility.
Given the obvious challenges of predicting how these types of conflicts play out, we look to financial market indicators to give us a better sense of the potential risks in the market. And in this respect, the most obvious indicator is oil. Since the start of the Russian invasion, oil has rallied roughly 18%, which is even more impressive considering it had already rallied 21% from the start of the year to the beginning of the conflict.
While we don’t know what will happen to energy markets over the coming weeks, we do know that oil shocks can result in higher inflation and sometimes lower growth. Inflation was already rising, although strategists generally viewed this as temporary on the expectation that the covid related supply chain disruptions and reopening pressures were the primary causes that would eventually self-correct. But as the Russian-Ukraine conflict intensifies, consensus views are moving towards inflation becoming more structural in nature. There are growing risks this will change consumer behaviour, causing inflation to be longer lasting than initially expected. Much of this has to do with the fact that as the world’s 3rd largest exporter of oil, Russia has taken a material amount of oil production capacity offline, resulting in significantly higher oil and gas prices. This also explains the significant outperformance of energy equities, and the broader S&P/TSX Composite Index vs US counterparts on a YTD basis.
While there are beneficiaries to higher oil prices, the consumer certainly isn’t one of them given gas prices reflect movements in the oil market. So far in 2022 prices paid at the pump have gone up 30%, one of the fastest paces on record. This, in addition to food price increases, will put strain on the consumer as higher bills divert dollars away from discretionary spending and potentially slow economic growth.
The other factor we’re closely watching is the overall health of the European economy, to which Russia supplies about 40% of Europe’s natural gas, 25% of their oil imports and 45% of their coal imports. While the European Commission has indicated plans to cuts their dependence on Russian energy well before 2030, the short-term impacts will be costly as Europe and other global markets see higher energy prices follow. As well, food prices will likely become an issue for the region given the interruption of supply out of the Black Sea which has driven grain and oilseed prices to levels not seen since 2008. Investors to date have priced in significant risk, evidenced by the performance of the Stoxx 50 which is down 17% YTD, one of the worst performing markets across the global universe.
While commodity prices are just one indicator, we are mindful that they could be telling us inflation may be more persistent than previously expected. From a long-term perspective this hasn’t changed our view of the equity market. As a result of potential near term impacts however, we have reduced our exposure to European markets in favour of the Canadian market and as well we have added inflation and risk hedges with sector allocations to energy, consumer staples and utilities, while still maintaining our overall long-term target levels to equities. There is no direct exposure to Russia in any of the three Equitable Life Active Balanced Portfolios which includes Equitable Life Active Balanced Growth Portfolio Select, Equitable Life Active Balanced Portfolio Select and Equitable Life Active Balanced Income Portfolio Select.
Downloadable CopyAny statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.