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1. Advisor Guide
2. EAMG Market Commentary August 2022
    

   August 2022
   
   The S&P 500 fell into bear market territory over the first half of 2022 with the index down -20.6%. This represented a top 10 ranking amongst the most dismal back-to-back quarterly performances going back to 1928. While comparisons have been made to the inflation driven bear market of 1973-74, the economic backdrop today has some significant differences including greater production capacity (factory utilization rates are running about 20% lower vs the 70’s) and a meaningful decline in raw industrial prices which have fallen -11% over the quarter. While these economic anecdotes are potential positives for the future, it’s important to remain cognizant that prices remain elevated.
   
   As such, the US Federal Reserve seems to be taking every opportunity to telegraph their intentions of raising interest rates at the expense of both market and economic performance, so long as inflation remains a threat. Given this hawkish tone, the market narrative has morphed from fears of inflation to a fed driven recession. As a result, the move in the bond market has been swift with the 10-year treasury yield peaking at approximately 3.5% in June to today’s level of 2.7% (lower rates = higher bond prices). This positive bond performance reflects the consensus view that inflation is temporary (2023 CPI forecasts are approximately 3.6% vs the second quarter’s 8.7% CPI reading) and could allow the Fed to adjust their higher interest rate trajectory downward. The Fed also remains confident that a soft landing is achievable, and a recession avoidable.
   
   Investors seem less convinced however, given the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing before, and so it’s no surprise equity markets entered a bear market over the quarter, and currently remain in a technical correction (defined as losses greater than -10%). To better assess future performance, we closely monitor earnings results to understand how companies are navigating these economic trends. With nearly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, the results have been better than expected, but still the EPS beat rate and magnitude of beats (actual vs expectation) remain below 5-year averages. This tells us companies are finding today’s economic conditions more challenging than the recent past. Consumer sectors including marketing, retail, autos and textiles posted the 2nd worst performance vs other sectors while the Financials sector saw the greatest challenges with aggregate EPS falling by -15% year-over-year. Wall Street analysts have started to revise S&P 500 forward growth estimates lower, a trend which we expect will continue for several quarters ahead. The forward (12-month blended) P/E ratio of 17.5 times remains 1.5 multiple points above the long-term average which potentially suggests risks may not be fully priced in.
   
   In terms of the S&P/TSX Composite, after declining nearly -14% in Q2 as recession fears around the world jeopardized the global demand outlook, its’ since rebounded over 4.0%. Still, valuation remains below longer-term averages at 11.8x forward earnings with the heavier weighted Financials and Energy sectors trading at 9.5x and 7.9x, respectively. TSX earnings expectations have stalled as of late but downward revisions are lagging US and European counterparts. Additionally, the domestic labour market remains tight which has allowed the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive rate hike path to curb soaring inflation. For most of 2022 the TSX has benefitted from surging commodity prices but an economic slowdown in China resulting from its commitment to a zero-Covid policy and a potential global recession could prove to be a challenge for the Canadian market.
   
   Equity markets on average lose 30% of their value in recession led bear markets. If we use this as a potential road map, it suggests the S&P 500 could have further to fall. Using past performance as a forward-looking tool however is an imperfect technique and used in isolation of what’s happening today can often mislead.
   
   Accounting for today’s backdrop, we come up with three scenarios of varying probabilities. The first is the most optimistic and includes an engineered soft landing by the Fed, meaning no recession and inflation cools. A less optimistic view is the fed tames inflation with higher interest rates but tips the economy into a mild-to-moderate recession. The outcome would be consumer spending and corporate hiring slow as a result of tighter financial conditions, and therefore financial results are negatively impacted. The least optimistic scenario is one where stagflationary conditions emerge as inflation continues to accelerate at the expense of growth despite higher interest rates, in other words the Fed loses control. The net result would be similar to our second scenario but with much more dire results in terms of unemployment, household spending and impacts to corporate profitability. While we don’t rule out any of the above scenarios completely, we assign the highest probability to the second one where macro economic issues get resolved at some point in the future, but the full effects of inflation and a possible recession have yet to be priced into the market. Currently, this view translates into a slight underweight equity position versus our benchmark with a tilt towards low volatility and defensive strategies along with an overlay of value and dividend paying securities. In other words, we’ve de-risked the portfolios relative to our benchmark to manage potential downside risks but remain meaningfully invested an on absolute basis. As always, time in the market tends to overcome trying to time the market, and so employing a strategic and diversified strategy is often the most prudent approach.
   
   
   Downloadable Copy
   
   
   
   ADVISOR USE ONLY
   Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

3. [pdf] B2B Investment Loan Product Brochure
4. Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin – September 2021 In this issue:
   • Right drug, right dose*
   • Responding to New Brunswick’s Biosimilar Initiative*
   • Helping plan members access our convenient digital options*
   • Reminder: Please access forms on EquitableHealth.ca*
   • Over-age dependents losing coverage?*
   *Indicates content that will be shared with your clients

   Right drug, right dose

   Equitable Life partners with Personalized Prescribing Inc. to help plan members avoid treatment trial and error
    
   Patients suffering from mental health conditions often need to try several medications before they find one that works for them. This is frustrating and can result in negative side-effects, a longer recovery, lost productivity, or a delayed return to work.
    
   To help plan members avoid this treatment trial and error, we have partnered with Personalized Prescribing Inc. to provide easier access to pharmacogenomic testing for plan members with mental health conditions.
    
   Pharmacogenomics 101
   Pharmacogenomics is the study of how an individual’s genes influence their response to medications. Pharmacogenomic testing can help determine how compatible a patient’s body may be to a particular drug, and helps their physician prescribe the most appropriate medication. The goal is to ensure the right drug is prescribed to deliver the most positive outcome with the fewest side effects.
    
   Easier access to pharmacogenomic testing
   Through our partnership with Personalized Prescribing Inc., any Equitable Life plan member diagnosed with a mental health condition can purchase a pharmacogenomic test for a discounted price of $399 plus HST – a 20% savings.
    
   We are also introducing the option for plan sponsors to add coverage of pharmacogenomic tests provided by Personalized Prescribing Inc. for mental health conditions.
    
   With this coverage, plan members are eligible for pharmacogenomic testing if:
   • They have been diagnosed with a mental health condition;
   • They are currently taking or have stopped taking a medication for a mental health condition that does not work or has side effects; and
   • The pharmacogenomic test is conducted by Personalized Prescribing Inc.
   How it works
   Getting a test is easy. The plan member starts by visiting www.personalizedprescribing.com/equitablelife to request a test kit.
    
   Once they receive their test kit from Personalized Prescribing Inc., they simply provide a saliva sample and send it back (postage is pre-paid). Within 7-10 business days, they receive an Rx Report™ that they can share with their doctor. This report includes details to help their doctor prescribe the right drug and the right dose for them.
    
   Benefits for plan members:
   • The plan member and their physician receive a full report that is easy to understand;
   • The report identifies the most compatible medications for the plan member’s condition and the medications to avoid;
   • The physician is able to prescribe the most appropriate medication with the fewest side effects; and
   • The plan member avoids medication trial and error.
   Benefits for employers:
   • Pharmacogenomic testing can be an effective prevention strategy to help employees stay healthy and potentially avoid a mental health-related work absence; and
   • Employees suffering from mental health conditions may be more productive when they are on the right medication for them.
   To learn more about pharmacogenomic testing through Equitable Life and Personalized Prescribing Inc., please visit www.personalizedprescribing.com/equitablelife. To request coverage for your clients, please contact your Equitable Life Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.

   Responding to New Brunswick’s Biosimilar Initiative

   We are changing coverage for some biologic drugs in New Brunswick in response to the province’s Biosimilar Initiative. These changes will help protect your clients from additional drug costs while still providing access to equally safe and effective biosimilars.
    
   What is New Brunswick’s Biosimilar Initiative?
   New Brunswick’s Biosimilar Initiative will end provincial coverage of several originator biologic drugs for some or all conditions beginning on December 1, 2021. Patients who are using these drugs for the affected conditions will be required to switch to biosimilar versions of the drugs to maintain coverage under the province’s government drug plan.
    
   What is the impact on private drug plans?
   The most significant risk to plan sponsors who maintain coverage of originator biologics is coordination of benefits (CoB) risk. If other insurance carriers follow suit with the province and delist the originator biologics, it could expose a plan that doesn’t delist them to significant coordination of benefits risk.
    
   For example, consider a patient who is covered under two private plans – their employer plan and a spousal plan. If their employer plan was the first payer for the originator biologic but delists the drug, the spousal plan now becomes the first payor. If the spousal plan continues to cover the cost of the originator, it now pays most or all of the cost of the drug.
   
   How is Equitable Life responding?
   To protect your clients’ plans from paying additional and avoidable drug costs, we are changing coverage in New Brunswick for most biologic drugs included in the provincial initiative.
    
   Beginning Feb. 1, 2022, plan members in New Brunswick will no longer be eligible for coverage of Humira, Lantus, Humalog and Copaxone if they have a condition for which Health Canada has approved a lower cost biosimilar version of the drug. These plan members will be required to switch to a biosimilar version of those drugs to maintain coverage under their Equitable Life plan.
    
   How will Equitable Life communicate this change to plan members?
   We will be communicating with affected claimants in early-December 2021 to allow them ample time to change their prescriptions and avoid any interruptions in their treatment or their coverage.
    
   Can my client maintain coverage of these biologic drugs?
   All groups, except myFlex clients, who wish to opt out of this change and maintain coverage of these originator biologics for New Brunswick plan members can submit a policy amendment. Amendments must be submitted no later than Nov. 30, 2021.
    
   Advisors with myFlex Benefits clients who wish to maintain coverage of these originator biologics for New Brunswick plan members should speak to their myFlex Sales Manager to confirm their eligibility to opt out of this change.
    
   Groups that opt out of this change are also opting out of any future changes to our New Brunswick biosimilar initiative. Their drug plans will continue to cover any additional originator biologics that we subsequently add to the program.  
    
   Will this change impact my clients’ rates?
   The rate impact of this change and  any cost savings associated with the change will be factored in at renewal.
    
   If plan sponsors opt out of these changes and maintain coverage for the originator biologics, it may result in a rate increase. Any rate adjustment will be applied at renewal.
    
   What is the difference between biologics and biosimilars?
   Biologics are drugs that are engineered using living organisms like yeast and bacteria. The first version of a biologic developed is also known as the “originator” biologic. Biosimilars are also biologics. They are highly similar to the originator drug they are based on and have been shown to have no clinically meaningful differences in safety or efficacy.
    
   Questions?
   If you have any questions about this change, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
    

   Helping plan members access our convenient digital options

   Some of your clients’ plan members aren’t benefitting from our secure and convenient digital options to access and use their Group Benefits. They can sign up to submit claims electronically for faster claim payments, get claim payments deposited directly to their bank accounts, easily review their coverage details, quickly access their Group Benefits plan booklet, benefits card and more. We’ve made it easier than ever to sign up, with more resources all conveniently located at Equitable.ca/go/digital.

   Your clients’ plan members can visit this link to view:
   • A brochure with all the high-level instructions they need to get started on EquitableHealth.ca and the EZClaim mobile app
   • A full video guide on how to access and navigate EquitableHealth.ca
   If your clients’ plan members need help activating these services, they can give us a call at 1-800-265-4556 and select the option for web support. We’d be happy to help!
    

   Reminder: Please access forms on EquitableHealth.ca*

   We routinely update our Plan Administrator forms on EquitableHealth.ca based on their feedback and to stay compliant with legal and/or regulatory requirements. If your clients need a form, they should always pull the most recent version from EquitableHealth.ca instead of reusing forms they have saved on their computer. Using an old or outdated form may result in processing delays.
    
   Your clients can access the Plan Administrator forms by following these steps:
   • Login to EquitableHealth.ca
   • Select “Documents”
   • Toggle between English and French forms
   • Click on the document name to download a PDF copy

   Over-age dependents losing coverage?*

   Some of your clients’ plan members may have dependents who are reaching the maximum age for eligibility under their group benefits plan.
    
   If they are attending school full-time or are disabled, they may be eligible for continued coverage. Plan members with over-age dependents can simply complete the Application for Coverage of Dependent Child Over Age 21 (Form #441) and submit it through our online document submission tool. They can access the tool by logging into their Group Benefits account at www.equitablehealth.ca and clicking My Resources. 
   
   If they are not attending school full-time or disabled, they will no longer be covered under the plan. However, they may be eligible for Coverage2go®. It allows individuals who are losing their group coverage to purchase personal month-to-month health and dental coverage that is affordable, reliable and works like their previous group benefits plan. They can choose the level of coverage and protection that suits their personal situation.
   
   There are no medical questions – they simply need to apply within 60 days of losing their health coverage under their group benefits plan.*
    
   Help your clients’ plan members and their dependents who are losing coverage by letting them know about Coverage2go. They can visit our website to learn more about Coverage2go and to get a quote.
     
   *Quebec residents are not eligible for Coverage2go
5. EAMG Market Commentary April 2024 April 2024
    
   Rates & Credit – Interest rates increased in Q1 2024, giving back half of the decline experienced in Q4 2023 amid consistently positive surprises in U.S. economic data.  The positive economic news also drove a strong risk-on tone to the market, with the risk premium on corporate bonds tightening as economic prospects improved.  In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index (FTSE) with a slightly positive 0.07% return, verses a loss of 1.66% in government bonds and a loss of 1.22% for the overall index.  More interest rate sensitive long-term bonds experienced the largest decline, which was partially offset in corporate bonds by the risk-on tone to corporate bond spreads.  On a 6-month and 1-year basis, the FTSE remained positive at 6.94% and 2.10%, respectively.  Within corporate bonds, lower-rated BBBs outperformed higher-rated A bonds, while industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications underperformed those with less exposure (notably financials and securitization).
   
   
    
    
   Equity Overview – Throughout Q1 2024, concerns about a recession gradually eased as central bankers adopted a more accommodative outlook on monetary policy. Their growing dovishness reflected confidence that the restrictive monetary measures were effectively curbing inflation as anticipated. Underpinned by prospects of an economic soft-landing, global equity markets rallied to start the year with most major North American indices soaring to new all-time highs during the quarter. U.S. equities continued to outperform other major international markets with the S&P 500 returning 10.6% in USD terms. Major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) gained 10.1% in local currency terms, while the TSX added 6.6%. Furthermore, the U.S. economy continued to prove more resilient than most major developed economies, with strong employment and robust output data. As such, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities achieved enhanced returns, benefitting from a stronger Greenback.
   
    
   U.S. Fundamentals – Corporate earnings beat expectations in Q4 2023, triggering a wave of upward earnings revision. Stable operating margins, cash flows and debt loads continue to attract investors into equities. Investors appear focused on the company’s ability to sustain debt levels ahead of renewing debt obligations. We observed that the number of major companies that expect improving financial performance shrunk to ~19%. This suggests that concentration risks are likely brewing in the equity market, yet again.
    
   U.S. Quant Factors
   Optimistic run-up in equity valuations were mostly driven by the momentum factor. A basket of companies with positive price trends intensified concentration risk in the equity market. We note that momentum factor’ performance sharply contrasted fundamental factors, making us cautious on the market’s complacency. For context, high quality companies, which is typically defined by high Return on Equity (ROE), stable earnings variability, and low financial leverage, placed second in our risk-adjusted performance rankings, and is dwarfed by the ~ 17.9% return observed from the momentum factor.
    
   Canadian Fundamentals – Against the backdrop of underwhelming financial results, ROE – a gauge of how efficiently a corporation generates profits – rebounded in Q4, 2023, after declining throughout most of the year. The improved efficiency metric provided a positive catalyst for dividend investors as the inverse movements of ROE relative to financing costs over 2023 kept investors on the sidelines. In addition, the CRB Raw Industrials Index, a measure of price changes of basic commodities, broke out of recent ranges, providing a tailwind for Canada’s energy and materials sector. Concerns with earnings contraction and macro-economic conditions have subsided.
    
   Canadian Quant Factors – Crude prices soared higher in Q1 2024, with ongoing production cuts from OPEC+ and ramifications of geopolitical conflicts keeping oil markets undersupplied. As such, energy companies benefitted, surging higher and outperforming the broader index, while the low volatility basket – with lower exposure to cyclically sensitive business – underperformed into quarter end. Furthermore, Canadian banks underperformed to start the quarter, giving back some of the sharp outperformance witnessed into the end of Q4 2023. That said, soft inflation data increased expectations of impending rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and, as such, banks performed in line with the broader market throughout most of the quarter. Underpinned by expectations of a dovish switch in monetary policy, investors rewarded dividend payers with a history of increasing dividends, boosting confidence in their ability to support future dividend growth. It is important to note that investors should not let dividend growth’s outperformance overshadow high dividend paying companies’ underperformance; more specifically, investors remain attentive to the businesses’ ability to create value relative to financing costs.  
   
   Views From the Frontline
    
   Rates – Interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. increased across all bond tenors in Q1 2024. U.S. inflation data surprised to the upside, remaining stubbornly higher than hoped, while labour market and consumer indicators underscored the economy's continued strength.  In Canada, inflation data fell below forecasts, but early 2024 GDP readings exceeded expectations. The market now anticipates a 'soft landing' for the U.S. economy; however, the Canadian economy continues to slow. North American central banks have signaled that we are at the peak for policy rates. The market is currently pricing in approximately two-to-three, 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in the second half of 2024, much fewer than the six-to-seven 25 basis point interest rate cuts that the market had been anticipating even just three months ago.  As the Swiss central bank led the way with the first rate cut among developed countries, central banks in major developed economies will closely monitor upcoming data and market developments to determine the timing and pace for rate cuts.
    
   Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) continued to tighten over the quarter, with a strong risk-on tone to the market as investors priced in renewed economic growth in 2024 as compared to previous expectations.  Corporate bond supply was robust, with $38.2bn in new issuance, the second strongest first quarter on record.  On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable.
    
   Equity – We favour a combination of the Dow Jones and the S&P500 for our broad market exposure. The Dow, a price-weighted index, should have some value and low volatility tilt as it tracks mature large companies.  As explained above, concentration risks are brewing in the equity market, and during Q1 this risk was exacerbated by investors rushing into a basket of companies with positive price trends, thereby pushing valuation metrics further into the expensive territory.  In our view, it is well-suited to use a combination of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 for broad U.S. market exposure given the heightened concentration risk. Looking forward, we expect companies to exhibit stable operating margins and therefore, we are shifting our focus toward the balance between upcoming corporate debt refinancing requirements and reinvestment in projects intended to drive future growth. In plain words, we are tactically adding to companies with stable cash flows and decreased debt loads outside of the mega-cap group. In Canada, we expect a modest earnings growth and remain attentive to how efficiently a corporation generates profits relative to their financing cost. We caution against the overly optimistic, commodity driven, “catch-up” trade vs. our southern neighbour. Therefore, we tweaked our investment strategy by rotating out of the low volatility factor and adding to higher yielding quality companies in Canada.
    

   Downloadable Copy

    

   Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
   Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

    
   ADVISOR USE ONLY
   
   
   Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
    
    
6. Contracting and Compensation
7. [pdf] B2B RSP Loan Product Brochure
8. [pdf] Advisors Edge Insurance for Children Article
9. [pdf] Transforming the group benefits experience
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