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Celebrating our wins – 2023 Individual Insurance Marketing Recap Equitable^® would like to wish everyone a Happy New Year and we are looking forward to doing more business together in 2024!

As we start a brand new year, we would like to share with you some highlights of our 2023 initiatives in Individual Insurance. These projects aimed to make it easier to do business and enrich your experience of working with us.

Digital & Administration Enhancements
Our 2023 digital transformation initiatives ensured smoother processes, streamlined operations, and improved user experiences for advisors and clients:
● Digital Transactions for Universal Life Plans
● Text Notifications Keep You Informed on Your New Business
● New Online Policy Loan Form
● EZcomplete Enhancement for Critical Illness
● New Life & CI Application

Product Updates
Equally pivotal were our efforts in enhancing our individual life insurance solutions to empower you to confidently recommend us to clients:
● A Tune-Up for Equimax
● The Equimax Evolution Continues
● Critical Illness Insurance Update
● New Dividend Scale Interest Rate

To learn more about the above initiatives, kindly reach out to your local wholesaler.
Thank you for entrusting us with your business in 2023!
Continue watching for news from Equitable for more great launches and enhancements in 2024!

^®or ^TMdenote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada
Free Webinar: A better employee health benefits solution for small business clients Join us on Tuesday, May 28, 2024 at 1 p.m. ET for a free webinar about Equitable EZBenefits™ – our new employee health benefits solution designed for small business clients.

If you serve small business owners, chances are they’re looking for a group benefits solution that’s affordable, sustainable and easy to manage. That’s why we created EZBenefits for businesses with between 2 and 25 employees.

You’ll learn about:
● The range of plan design options we’ve created to fit various needs and budgets;
● The streamlined process we’ve designed to optimize your time and provide you and your clients with rapid quotes, hassle-free plan implementation and easy renewals;
● Our dedicated Advisor Concierge Service – your go-to resource for EZBenefits support;
● The health and wellness services that are embedded with EZBenefits, including Virtual Health and an Employee and Family Assistance Program; and
● The built-in HR support through Equitable’s partnership with HRdownloads®, including access to HR technology, content and training.

Register to attend the EZBenefits webinar

This webinar will be delivered using Microsoft Teams and will include a Q&A component. If you wish to submit a question using the Q&A feature, please follow these instructions when you join the webinar:
● Join using the Microsoft Teams app. If you do not have Microsoft Teams, you can download it for free here.
● If you prefer to join via web browser without installing Microsoft Teams, please use Google Chrome or Microsoft Edge. Other browsers do not support the Q&A feature.
Positioning for the Future Over the past few years, we’ve made great progress on our five-year strategic plan. Our Individual Insurance new business sales grew 24% over the previous year, compared to an 8% market growth. We’ve introduced refreshed products, services and technology. Looking ahead, we want to keep our momentum and ensure we also look beyond the next five years. To be successful in this, we’re making some changes to our current structure.

We’re pleased to announce that Martin Reeves has been promoted to Executive Vice-President, Individual Insurance. Martin has served in key positions during his time at Equitable including Vice President, Actuarial and Finance and most recently as Head of Individual Insurance Business. Martin is a talented leader. His 20 years of industry experience spans the globe having served in leadership positions in Canada, Hong Kong and Malaysia. His passion for delivering leading insurance solutions to Canadians has been instrumental to Equitable’s recent success. Martin will join Equitable’s executive team and will report to Fabien Jeudy, Chief Executive Officer.

Martin steps into this role as Donna Carbell accepts a new position as Executive Vice-President, Chief Strategy and Impact Officer. Donna will remain on the executive team and continue to lead Equitable’s brand and impact efforts. Donna will add Equitable’s corporate strategy to her accountability, overseeing the company’s strategic initiatives. These initiatives support our aspirations of becoming fully driven by client outcomes in a way that is simple, safe and rewarding for our clients, partners and employees. We would like to thank Donna for her incredible leadership of the Individual Life business these past several years.
Making it easier to do business with us At Equitable^® we are always looking for ways to improve your experience with us. We’ve made the following enhancements to make it easier for you to put your business with us.

New and Improved UL Fund Performance page

Access more fund performance information faster and easier on our new and improved Fund Overview & Performance website for funds held within Equitable universal life policies.

We partnered with Fundata to build a central location for fund performance, fund information (available in web and PDF) and Management Expense Ratios (MERs). This fund reporting will be available for all our universal life business (both legacy products and products currently being sold).

Highlights include:
● Save your favourite funds for easy access.
● Fund search and tools to filter by product, asset class and sustainability.
● Share feature allows you to easily share fund information with clients.
● Ability to compare fund performance.

Check out the new Fund Overview & Performance website today. See how Equitable is making fund information faster and easier to access.

New “Update Payment” feature for banking changes has launched!

Great news! We have launched a new self-serve "Update Payment" feature in Client Access and on EquiNet^®. This new online capability enables clients and advisors to easily submit key banking change requests for eligible insurance policies*, with no need to complete a physical form.
*The Update Payment transactions are only available for eligible policies: those that have not lapsed, are not on Automatic Premium Loan, and are not owned by a corporation or other entity.

What’s new? Clients and advisors can now submit banking changes via EquiNet under Policy Inquiry. It allows them to easily submit requests for the following: stop and resume pre-authorized payments or change banks. Learn more.

Speak to your individual life wholesaler to learn more about these great enhancements!

^® or ^TM denotes a trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada
[pdf] A Simple Interest Option for Guaranteed Investing
[pdf] DSC and Transfer Fee Reimbursement Request
[pdf] Claimant Statement for Individuals
EAMG Market Commentary July 2023

July 17, 2023

Rates & Credit - The rates market was volatile in Q2 as investors focused on inflation, central bank interest rate decisions, and recession probabilities. Persistent strength in U.S. consumer spending and labour markets have surprised investors and prompted further interest rate tightening from central banks. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index during the quarter, with a total return of 0.2%, versus a loss of 1.0% for government bonds and 0.7% for the overall Index. The corporate bond outperformance was driven by a broad risk-on tone to the market, most notably in April as the market recovered from the banking sector liquidity crisis that developed during March. That said, the market tone remained cautious, with the improved risk premium on corporate bonds tempered by lingering concerns around sticky inflation, high interest rates, and the potential for slower economic growth into the latter half of the year.

Dominance of U.S. Equities – U.S. equity markets posted another strong quarter with the S&P 500 returning 8.7%, outperforming Canada and other major international equity markets. The S&P/TSX Composite, returned 1.2% in CAD. Major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) returned 3.2% in local currency terms. The highly anticipated re-opening of the Chinese economy has failed to materialize with economic data indicating less strength than previously forecasted. Amid sluggish Chinese growth, closely interconnected economic partners such as the European Union, as well as commodity-driven markets like Canada, have all underperformed the U.S. on a relative basis.

U.S. Fundamentals – Earnings continued to contract versus prior year, albeit at a slower pace than forecasted. Forward earnings guidance improved quarter-over-quarter with corporate sentiment returning to neutral levels. Based on our analysis, we observed that 31% of major companies expect deteriorating financial performance, while 33% expect improved performance, with the remaining expecting no material change. Overall, major U.S. companies remain well capitalized with strong operating margins. However, company guidance indicates a prioritization of cost controls amid increased consumer indebtedness and concerns about the health of the consumer.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Mania – Despite concerns that the U.S. economy is at a late stage in its economic cycle, that monetary tightening by central banks could go too far, and the fact that earnings contracted on a year-over-year basis, equity markets became more expensive during the quarter with price-to-earnings multiples expanding. This expansion was driven by investors crowding into AI focused technology companies, with the seven largest AI/technology themed companies averaging a 26% return while the other 493 members gained only 3%. Investors rewarded businesses with contributions to AI development (hardware and software components), as well as those with the ability to implement synergies from leveraging the technology. A crowded market surge is not uncommon at this point in the economic cycle, where positive economic surprises, in this instance, strong employment and consumer spending can lead to an upswelling in investor confidence.

U.S. Quant Factors – Using our investment framework, we currently favour exposures to large cash-rich companies with innovative product offerings, which we believe offer the strongest risk-adjusted returns in the current market environment. While the valuation of AI companies seems to defy traditional rationales, the momentum has continued to push the group higher. Consequently, the Quality factor (companies with higher return-on-equity, strong operating performance, and healthy leverage levels) participated in the AI trend and consistently outperformed throughout the quarter. The Low Volatility factor (stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement, and lower price volatility) underperformed through the quarter. While the Low Volatility factor typically performs well at this stage of the economic cycle, the fact that a small number of stocks were responsible for much of the market’s return hurt this factor. Lastly, the Momentum factor (stocks with a recent history of price appreciation) initially underperformed during the quarter before rebounding in June. This factor’s recent outperformance suggests that the market is becoming complacent and possibly signals that rotations within the market are slowing as current trends remain in favour.

Canadian Fundamentals – Top line revenue missed forecasts while bottom line earnings were consistent with expectations. Softer-than-expected results out of Canadian financials, as well as underwhelming results from the materials sector, dragged on the aggregate index performance. Earnings forecasts for the rest of the year have been revised downward with analyst expecting index aggregate earnings to detract 2% to 3%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.75% on the backdrop of robust economic data releases including Q1 GDP and April CPI.

Canadian Quant Factors – The most notable dislocation in Canada was the convergence of the dividend yield of High-Dividend ETFs and Equal-Weight Bank ETFs. We believe that the drag from Canadian banks following the U.S. regional banking concerns in March resulted in a discount of the Quality factor as the performance of the group is sensitive to the movements of banks. While banks did recover around 35% of their SVB-induced underperformance, the nature of banking has attracted investor scrutiny given the view that we are in the late-stage of the economic cycle. That said, this environment is an attractive environment to add variants of the Quality factor, which would gain exposure to a rebounding industry that offers a similar dividend yield to the high dividend stocks.

Views From the Frontline

Rates – On an outright basis, bond yields across the curve continue to look attractive. Economic data remains strong however we are beginning to see the first signs of weakness in spending, jobs and inflation. Slower growth, a more balanced labour market, declining inflation, and tighter credit conditions will likely drive interest rates lower throughout 2023. Market participants remain focused on the extent of interest rate hikes and the duration of a pause required to bring inflation back to the 2% target. With inflation remaining more persistent than previously expected forecasts around the timing, pace and extent of the removal of monetary policy have been pushed into 2024.

Credit – The uncertain economic outlook and risks around slower economic growth later this year merit caution about corporate bonds and a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we think the risk / reward dynamic are more favourable. That said, the “soft-landing” narrative, now more pervasive in the market, could continue to provide support to risk assets, which we view as an opportunity to further pare down higher beta exposure.

Equities – Given the direction of the current economic and company fundamental data, we continue to favour high quality growth segments of the market with strong operating margins. As such, the late cycle conditions in the market reinforce our preference for large cap stocks over smaller, more U.S. domestically focused businesses. The U.S. Low Volatility factor’s underperformance is unlikely to reverse in the short term given the resilience of the U.S. economy. Furthermore, after a steep decline last quarter, we expect that cyclical value will find support in the near term, echoing the increased chance of slowing inflation without stalling economic growth. In Canada, equities are typically more cyclical in nature, which coupled with the potential for an earnings contraction, makes us view the Low Volatility factor as more likely to outperform. Like the U.S., we prefer Canadian high-quality companies to navigate through the late cycle environment. On the heels of poor Chinese economic data and underwhelming stimulus, we are maintaining our overweight to the U.S. relative to Canada and EAFE.

Downloadable Copy

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
Posted July 27, 2023

EAMG Market Commentary October 2023

October 20, 2023

Rates & Credit - Interest rates increased steadily in Q3 against the backdrop of sticky inflation, strong economic growth, and a tight labour market. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index during the quarter, with a loss of 2.2%, versus a loss of 4.4% for government bonds and a loss of 3.9% for the overall index. The outperformance was primarily driven by the fact that the corporate bond index is less sensitive to interest rates movements (as compared to the government index), all else being equal. The outperformance was also driven by an improvement in risk-appetite, with lower-rated BBBs slightly outperforming higher-rated A bonds. Industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications underperformed those with less (notably financials and securitization), consistent with the overall shift in the yield curve.

Equities Lose Traction – Global equity markets lost momentum last quarter with the TSX declining 2.2% while major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) fell 1.3% in local currency terms. U.S. equity markets, while falling approximately 3.3%, were cushioned by a strong greenback, with the index declining only 1% in Canadian dollar terms. With inflation prints continuing to be stubbornly high and employment data remaining strong, central bankers emphasized their commitment to a higher-for-longer approach to monetary policy. The hawkish tones out of the Federal Reserve pushed bond yields higher and consequently, pressured equities lower. Furthermore, mixed economic data out of China rattled investor sentiment over the quarter as global growth forecasts came under scrutiny.

U.S. Fundamentals – Although U.S. earnings continue to contract on a year-over-year basis, companies surpassed expectations with investors remaining highly focused on signs of deteriorating operating margins. After bouncing off Q1 2022 lows, forward earnings guidance continues to improve on a quarterly basis. Based on our analysis, ~35% of major companies revised earnings forecasts higher (+2% versus Q2) while ~33% held expectations constant, with the balance expecting deteriorating financial performance. Overall, improved efficiencies through cost-cutting measures and stronger-than-expected pricing power have contributed to resilience in operating margins, and therefore renewed optimism about forecasted financial performance.

Equal Weight S&P 500 versus S&P 500 – Persistent crowding into mega-cap technology stocks – which has driven the majority of market returns year-to-date in the U.S. – slowed at the beginning of the summer before reaccelerating into quarter end. The persistence of this trend has resulted in the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 index returning a mere 1.8% over the first three quarters of the year, markedly lower than the 13.1% return observed from the S&P 500. We continue to emphasize that a crowded market surge is not uncommon during late stages of the economic cycle, and we remain focused on delivering optimal risk-adjusted returns with quantitative factors.

U.S. Quant Factors – The quality-growth areas of the market continued to outperform last quarter with market participants seeking large cash-rich companies with innovative product offerings and stable operating margins. That said, the pricing power of these companies has weakened more recently with consumers having depleted pandemic-era savings and stimulus. As such, fundamentals are beginning to appear overvalued. Low volatility stocks (i.e. stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement and lower price volatility) performed in-line with the overall market for most of the summer before underperforming into quarter-end when crowding into big-tech returned. While top-line projections are forecasted to post stable growth, the basket’s relatively lower operating margins remain a headwind amid surging interest rates. Dividend growth companies, which include businesses with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, performed approximately in-line with the broader index over the quarter. With the market forecasting overly-negative fundamental performance, this factor is positioned as a contrarian opportunity in the market.

Canadian Fundamentals – Unlike those in the U.S., Canadian companies reported shrinking operating margins in general, pressuring equity pricing. Like in the U.S., Canadian corporate earnings were mostly consistent with expectations but continue to contract on a year-over-year basis. The energy sector benefitted from a ~30% increase in oil prices during the quarter, as OPEC’s restrictive oil production schedule pushed crude markets deeper into under-supplied territory. Those higher energy prices buoyed performance of stocks in the energy sector, one of only two sectors with positive performance during the quarter, helping partially offset softer-than-expected results out of the financials and communications sectors. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada continued with its hawkish monetary policy by raising its overnight interest rate by another 25 basis points, bringing it to 5%. Their efforts to slow economic growth are beginning to cause some deterioration in fundamentals and, with one quarter remaining, analysts are expecting Canadian earnings to contract ~9% for the year.

Canadian Quant Factors – With central banks around the world continuing to hike interest rates and uncertainty surrounding China’s economic health, global growth prospects fluttered over the quarter. The cyclical nature of the Canadian market, and therefore its reliance on global partners, saw equity prices put under pressure by growth concerns. As a result, the quality bucket benefitted from defensive positioning by investors and thus resumed its climb in Canada. Investors continue to prefer mature, large businesses that are better positioned in a restrictive economic environment due to their more stable operating margins. The value factor – which was beaten down in Q2 – rebounded last quarter with supply-driven energy strength helping to propel energy stocks higher. Low volatility initially displayed similar performance to the TSX, but energy’s rapid surge into the end of summer pressured the group lower. Given higher risk-free rates, the dividend factor also underperformed over the quarter, with dividend yields becoming less attractive on risk adjusted basis.

Views From the Frontline

Rates – Both nominal and real – rose sharply in Q3 to levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. A healthy labour market, strong consumer spending, persistent inflation and excess supply concerns drove the interest rate increase. Although the economy is starting to witness a deceleration in consumer spending and tighter credit conditions, central banks remain committed to maintaining a higher policy rate for longer to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) has been range-
bound over the past quarter as investors’ evaluations of a variety of scenarios have evolved: soft-landing versus a recession, geopolitical uncertainty, further central bank increases, among other things. On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, and as such, we remain cautious on corporate bonds and have a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable.

Equities – Geographically, we began the quarter with a preference for U.S. equities relative to Canada and EAFE. In-line with our expectations, U.S. stocks outperformed the two regions in Canadian dollar terms. That said, weakness in the Euro versus the Canadian dollar was a headwind for our EAFE exposure. With earnings yield – which is the percentage of earnings relative to price – becoming less attractive compared to risk-free rates in the U.S., and the greenback strength becoming overstretched from a technical perspective, we have pared back our overweight U.S. position. Moreover, with Chinese officials focusing efforts on the introduction of new stimulus packages, we believe that more cyclical markets like Canada and EAFE will retrace some of their losses in the near term. Within the U.S., we entered Q3 with a constructive view on high quality growth segments of the market that provide strong operating margins during the current late economic cycle conditions. The factor moved in-line with our expectations, as highlighted in the “U.S. Quant Factor” section, and we are tactically decreasing our exposure amid stretched fundamentals. In Canada, we continue to prefer high-quality companies due to their strong fundamentals, with the group currently displaying momentum versus the broader TSX. Tactically, we are participating in the oil supply shock through the value factor.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Mohamed Bouhadi, CFA Senior Analyst, Rates	Tyler Farrow Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

Posted November 3, 2023

Market Commentary January 2026

Key Takeaways

Full year 2025:
• Government policy was very impactful for markets in 2025. U.S. trade policy unsettled markets in the first half of the year, as the U.S. implemented significant tariffs and engaged in tough negotiations with major trading partners. However, by mid-year, fiscal policy provided positive support for markets, particularly with the passing in the U.S. of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July.
• Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) continued to attract investment, particularly in the United States. This investment provided strong support for equity market performance.
• Global equity markets delivered strong performance, most notably Canadian equities, which returned an impressive 31.7%.
• Positive risk appetite supported solid corporate bond performance, which outpaced government bonds.

Fourth Quarter:
• U.S. equities advanced at a slower pace in the fourth quarter after a strong surge in the prior two quarters. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities, fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors.
• Canadian bond markets posted slightly negative returns during the quarter as higher interest rates weighed on performance. Strong corporate bond performance partially offset weakness in government bonds.
• Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered policy interest rates during the quarter, with Canada dropping its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and the U.S. dropping its policy rate by 50 basis points. Both central banks signalled a cautious approach for further easing.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: The U.S. economy continued to expand at a moderate pace, supported by strong consumer spending and AI investment. However, job growth slowed and the unemployment rate has edged higher. Inflation remains higher than the 2% target, despite easing trends. While some U.S. trading partners have made trade agreements, uncertainty remains regarding reciprocal tariffs, with a case before the U.S. Supreme Court as to their legality. The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate twice during the quarter, first in October and again in December, to reach a target rate of 3.50% to 3.75%. Chair Powell cited downside risks to employment as a key factor behind the rate cut decisions and emphasized that officials are “well positioned” to wait and assess how the economy evolves.

In Canada, U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber have weighed heavily on these sectors. While most goods continue to enter the U.S. tariff-free due to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (“CUSMA”), broader uncertainty around U.S. trade policy is dampening business investment. Third quarter GDP growth exceeded market expectations, but growth tracked weaker in the fourth quarter amid the trade disputes. The labour market showed signs of improvement in the fourth quarter after earlier weakness. Headline inflation has hovered near the 2% target, while core inflation remained persistent. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in October and made no changes in December. Going into 2026, trade uncertainty remains with the CUSMA up for renegotiation. The Bank of Canada reiterated its readiness to respond if new shocks or accumulating evidence materially alter the outlook.

Bond Markets: During the quarter, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned -0.3% as interest rates on Canadian bonds rose (bond prices fall as interest rates go up). The increase reflected reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and a higher risk premium demanded by investors for long-term debt. Although interest rates increased, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to move lower. These lower credit spreads resulted in positive overall returns for corporate bonds in the quarter, despite the overall bond market recording a loss. Tightening credit spreads reflected the continued risk-on tone to the market. Despite some volatility, lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now rallied back to the tightest spreads since the 2008 financial crisis, nearing the tightest spreads in history. Despite expensive levels, investors remain buyers of corporate bonds, evidenced not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to set new records, with an impressive $37.5 billion in new issuance in the fourth quarter helping 2025 to exceed the prior year’s issuance. All told, 2025 saw an impressive $160 billion in new issuance via 358 new bonds, versus 2024’s prior record of $139 billion from 301 new bonds.

Stock Markets: The fourth quarter marked a pivotal shift in the global equity market rally of 2025. After three quarters of a highly concentrated, tech-led rally in the U.S., cyclical and valueoriented sectors outperformed in Q4. The S&P 500 advanced at a slower 2.7% in the fourth quarter, reflecting a market that is recalibrating after an extended period of concentrated gains. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities as the S&P/TSX Composite returned 6.3% in the quarter, finishing the year with an impressive 31.7% return. That was its strongest annual gain since 2009. The strong returns in Canadian equities were fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials sector, supported by soaring gold and base metal prices, and reinforced by the resilience of the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors. Internationally, developed markets in Europe and Asia gained 6.2% for the quarter, bringing their annual return to 21.2%. This move signals a healthy rebalancing as global investors rotated into attractivelyvalued international equities to hedge against elevated U.S. valuations. Capital is now flowing toward regions and sectors offering stronger earnings visibility and defensive characteristics rather than purely speculative growth.

U.S. Equities: U.S. equities entered the fourth quarter at elevated valuations. Despite fundamentally strong earnings growth, stock prices struggled to move higher because investor expectations were for even stronger growth. Technology remained the primary driver of earnings, but the sector faced intense pressure to prove its value. Specifically, investors questioned the pace at which companies could convert AI investments into actual revenue. Investors also worried that growth remained concentrated among too few companies rather than more broadly across the economy. Sector-wise, Communication Services emerged as the top performer for the full year due to significant margin expansion. This was driven by a wave of media-related merger activity and the successful use of AI to make digital advertising more efficient. Industrials also advanced as new tax incentives for domestic manufacturing boosted factory orders. Nevertheless, the market remains concentrated with the top ten stocks representing nearly 40% of the S&P 500 Index. This level of concentration makes the market vulnerable to sudden price swings. As inflation moderated and the Federal Reserve cut rates in December, investors shifted toward more defensive sectors and international equities. This rotation signals a preference for companies with stable cash flows over speculative growth.

Canadian Equities: The Canadian market was a global standout during the quarter, supported by lower borrowing costs, a stable Financials sector, and rally in the prices of metals (including gold, but also base metals like nickel and copper). The Materials sector led the way as a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions pushed gold to a record of US$4,550 per ounce in late December. For major mining companies, these prices generated record cash flow allowing them to raise dividends and buy back shares. The Bank of Canada interest rate cut supported both the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors, reducing borrowing costs, and helping banks maintain stable net interest margins. The Big Six Canadian Banks delivered strong earnings results in Q4. These were driven by a surge in capital markets activity and better-than-expected provisions for credit losses, as the economy remained resilient. Trading at 17 times forward earnings, the Canadian market appears attractively valued, prompting investors to shift away from U.S. volatility toward more tangible assets and reliable dividends.

Bottom line: The final quarter of 2025 saw a notable shift in investor positioning. As recession fears receded, attention turned to navigating a period of moderate economic expansion. In Canada, capital flowed into profitable, cash flow-generating companies in the Financials and Material sectors. Momentum in U.S. equities slowed as investors reduced risk amid caution around AI developments. Although major indices remain highly valued, opportunities persist in sectors and regions with stable cash flows and pricing power.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Investments	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Investments	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Public Investments	Jin Li Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM Sr. Quantitative Analyst	Andrew Vermeer, CFA Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Edward Ng Cheng Hin Analyst, Credit	Kate (Huyen) Vinh Analyst, Equity	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.