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Market Commentary April 2025

Key Takeaways for Q1

Economic policy became more uncertain with fluctuating tariff announcements from the U.S. and its trading partners.
Global stocks markets experienced heightened volatility year-to-date, reflecting the negative repercussions of tariffs for highly integrated global economies.
Within U.S. markets, investors rotated out of growth stocks into value and defensive areas of the market.
Bond markets performed well during the quarter as interest rates moved lower.
Most central banks continued to ease monetary policy by reducing their target interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve was a notable exception, electing to wait for greater clarity before lowering rates further.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., the latest GDP data confirmed solid economic growth in 2024. However, as President Trump pushes forward his economic agenda, uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and global trade have dampened market sentiment. Inflation pressures persisted, with the rate of inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, with unemployment rate staying low compared to historical norms. The Federal Reserve shifted to a more cautious approach, holding the policy rate steady through Q1 at the range 4.25% - 4.5%. The central bank raised its inflation forecast, lowered growth projections, and warned that “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.” U.S. bond yields were lower for most maturity dates during the first quarter, as the market priced in more growth concerns and anticipated more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

In Canada, recent GDP data showed stronger-than-expected growth. The inflation rate remained close to the 2% target but rose more than expected in February, and the labour market showed signs of improvement. U.S. tariffs continued to be a significant concern, and it is prompting businesses and consumers to become more cautious and slow their spending. The Bank of Canada warned that the economic impact of the tariffs could be “severe” and expected weaker growth in the coming quarters. For those reasons the Bank of Canada continued its easing cycle, cutting rates by 25 basis points at each of the January and March meetings, bringing the policy rate to 2.75%. Bond yields in Canada were also lower, with short-term interest rates decreasing faster than long-term interest rates as the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts outpaced market expectations.

Bond Markets: During Q1 2025, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned 2.0% as interest rates declined across all tenors. Although interest rates fell, this was partially offset by higher credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk). Consequently, while corporate bonds still generated a positive return on the quarter, they underperformed government bonds. Widening credit spreads reflected the risk-off tone to the market, with on-off-on-off-on(?) tariffs contributing to the uncertainty. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed worse than higher-quality A-rated bonds. While credit spreads are higher than they were in December and January, they are still expensive compared to longer term averages. Corporate bond issuance remained robust up until the last week of March, as investor demand kept deals well supported. Overall, the market took in $40 billion in new issuance, the second highest on record, spread over 82 bonds. While corporate bonds are more attractive than in January 2025, we believe the more likely path is towards higher credit spreads as U.S. tariffs impact global growth. We have maintained our conservative view with a bias towards shorter-dated credit but remain ready to invest in longer dated corporate bonds as valuations become more attractive.

Stock Markets – Overview:
Uncertainty surrounding the scope and severity of new tariffs led investors to reassess global economic growth prospects and weighed on risk sentiment. As a result, the S&P 500 declined 4.3% over the quarter, underperforming Canadian and international markets. Within the U.S., investors rotated out of previously favoured growth stocks with loftier valuations – including members of the Magnificent 7 – into less volatile and value-cyclical companies. Meanwhile, Canadian equities returned 1.5% in Q1 despite ongoing trade negotiations and uncertain economic growth forecasts. Surging commodity prices helped the materials and energy sectors outperform, offsetting weakness in the technology and industrials sectors. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) were supported over the quarter by the introduction of a new German fiscal stimulus package and signs of improving Chinese economic growth. Following the quarter end, President Trump announced global tariffs on April 2^nd, prompting some trading partners to hit back with retaliatory tariffs. The S&P 500 lost a record $5.2 trillion over two trading sessions and re-entered correction territory, with other global equity markets moving in tandem.

U.S. Equities: While the impact of tariffs has made investors more apprehensive, we have yet to witness a deterioration in financial performance. In fact, U.S. earnings continued to exceed forecasts last quarter, with approximately 70% of companies beating expectations. Furthermore, our bottom-up analysis shows that the skew of corporate earnings surprises continues to tilt positive. That said, we note that companies are providing more cautious guidance amid the increased economic uncertainty and that these earnings largely reflect conditions in 2024, not 2025. Notably, consumer stocks like Walmart have lowered growth forecasts for 2025, citing concerns surrounding consumer confidence and macroeconomic conditions. In addition to clouding the outlook, geopolitical shocks like sweeping tariffs may risk changing how companies choose to operate, including the structure of supply chains and sources of revenue. At this stage, it is still unclear how long these trade tensions will last, as that depends on how other countries choose to respond. If the tariffs are rolled back quickly, many companies may be able to absorb the temporary extra costs without serious damage to profits, and the broader economy could avoid lasting harm. But if the tariffs remain in place for a long time, the consequences could be much more serious; companies might have to change how they operate, restructure supply chains, and raise prices to deal with long-term pressure on profits.

Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of worrisome trade developments, the Bank of Canada continued to ease monetary policy. While lower rates have helped Canadian companies report better-than-expected profit growth, consensus earnings expectations for 2025 have been revised 2% lower since the beginning of the year, reflecting the expectations for tariff headwinds. Falling bond yields made high quality, high dividend paying companies more attractive, helping this group outperform. Furthermore, the price of raw industrials – a basket of commodities – surged higher over the quarter and as a result, commodity-oriented companies benefitted. More specifically, the materials sector performed strongly with gold prices reaching new all-time highs throughout the quarter. However, if trade frictions continue to escalate and weaker growth projections materialize into a real economic slowdown, the Canadian market, given its cyclical nature and heavy reliance on commodity-driven businesses, remains particularly vulnerable to external headwinds. Moreover, given Canada’s weaker fundamental backdrop, we caution that the recent outperformance of Canadian equities relative to the U.S. may prove short-lived, particularly if trade tension persists.

Bottom line:
Heightened uncertainty surrounding global trade policies, coupled with deteriorating economic growth projections, continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Bond prices benefited from the flight to less-risky assets, with lower interest rates in anticipation of weaker economic conditions. In equity markets, the introduction of broad-based tariffs increased market volatility and drove major indices sharply lower year-to-date. Looking forward, we remain cautious of the recent outperformance of Canadian and international markets relative to the U.S. While tariffs began as a U.S. policy move, the ripple effects extend far beyond American borders, reflecting the systemic fragility that underpins global trade. If trade barriers persist, businesses may be forced to make structural shifts in their operations and review their current business models. Until markets achieve greater clarity on global trade policies, we continue to prioritize exposure to diversified large-cap stocks in the U.S., over defensive or growth-heavy positions. Within Canada, we continue to favour high quality, high dividend paying names with less sensitivity to downgrades in global growth.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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January 2024 eNews

In this issue:

Equitable scores high marks with group advisors*
REMINDER: Equitable's National Biosimilar Program starts in March*
2024 dental fee guide updates*
Homewood Health wins HR Reporter Reader's Choice award for EFAP excellence*

*Indicates content that will be shared with your clients.

Equitable scores high marks with group advisors*

Equitable ranked first for operational service among major group insurers in a recent study of Canadian group benefits advisors.

NMG Consulting, a leading global consulting firm, conducted in-depth interviews with 146 Canadian group benefits brokers, consultants, MGAs and third-party administrators between May and August 2023 for its annual Canadian Group Benefits Study. Based on these interviews, NMG ranked group insurers in six categories, ranging from operational management to technology.

Nationally, Equitable ranked among the top three in five of the six main categories, including number one for Operational Management:

Category	Ranking
Operational management	1st
Initiatives (including seminars & training)	2nd
Technology	3rd
Underwriting & claims management	3rd
Relationship management	3rd

“Advisors regard us highly in many categories. That’s a testament to our mutual status and ability to focus exclusively on our clients and advisor partnerships,” said Marc Avaria, Executive Vice President, Group Insurance Division. “We are truly working together to build strong, enduring and aligned partnerships with our clients and advisors.”

“We’re delighted with these results and are committed to continuously advancing our delivery of a better benefits experience for our clients and advisors,” added Avaria.

More highlights from the latest NMG survey

Nationally, we ranked first in seven subcategories in Operational Management, including:

Overall service to intermediaries,
Overall service to plan sponsors,
New quote process,
Plan implementation,
Renewal process,
Accuracy and timeliness of reporting and billing, and
Administration quality and responsiveness

In Underwriting and Claims Management, we finished in the top three for flexibility of underwriting (2nd).

And we were rated strongly in Technology, finishing in the top three for:

Overall technology for Intermediary (2nd)
Member experience (3rd)
Quality of technology for the plan sponsor (2nd)
Quality of mobile application (2nd)

REMINDER: Equitable's National Biosimilar Program starts in March*

In October 2023 we announced the upcoming launch of our national biosimilar program. Starting March 1, 2024, we are expanding our biosimilar switch initiatives to provide a single, nationwide** program. 

Why we’re making the switch

Over the past few years, most provinces have introduced policies to delist some originator biologic drugs. They require most patients to switch to biosimilar versions of those drugs to be eligible for coverage under their public drug plans. Soon, it is expected that all provincial drug plans will cover only biosimilars.

Equitable’s National Biosimilar Program simplifies drug plan coverage by replacing our provincial programs. It also protects clients from additional drug costs while offering access to lower-cost biosimilars deemed equally safe and effective by Health Canada.

How will this affect clients' drug plans?

Because we have already introduced biosimilar switch initiatives in most provinces, the impact of this change will be minimal. It will primarily affect plan members in provinces or territories where we haven’t already required the switch to biosimilars. It will also affect plan members who are taking biosimilars that were not originally included in the switch initiative for their province.    

Regardless of where they live, plan members across Canada will no longer be eligible for most originator biologic drugs if they have a condition for which Health Canada has approved a lower-cost biosimilar version of the drug. Plan members already taking the originator biologic will be required to switch to a biosimilar version of the drug to maintain coverage under their Equitable plan. We will support their transition with education, personalized communication, and resources. 

Advance notice for plan members

We contacted affected claimants in early December to give them enough time to change their prescriptions and avoid any interruptions in their treatment or their coverage.    

If you have any questions about this change, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Account Executive.    
 ** Excludes plan members in Quebec who participate in a separate provincial program. 

2024 dental fee guide updates*

Each year, Provincial and Territorial Dental Associations publish fee guides. Equitable uses these guides to help determine the reimbursement limits for dental procedures.

For your reference, you may wish to refer to the 2024 list of the average dental fee increases for general practitioners.

Homewood Health wins HR Reporter Reader's Choice award for EFAP excellence*

Equitable is proud to congratulate our Employee and Family Assistance Plan (EFAP) partner, Homewood Health®, for winning the Canadian HR Reporter 2023 Reader’s Choice Award in Employee Assistance Plan services. Homewood’s EFAP provides confidential support for a range of health, family, money, and work issues through face-to-face, phone, email, chat, or video counselling. The award recognizes their high standards in counselling and mental health support services.

The annual Reader’s Choice Awards identify organizations that provide outstanding expertise and services for HR professionals and employers across Canada. Those organizations provide valuable information on useful, innovative HR and employee benefits products and programs, in categories such as recruitment, mental health services, employee engagement programs, and more.

Sharing Homewood Health with your clients

Since 2019, we have worked with Homewood to provide mental health services for Equitable benefits plan members.

Your clients can access Homewood Health’s award-winning EFAP for an additional fee by adding it to their benefits plan. Services are available 24/7, 365 days a year.

All Equitable clients also have free access to Homewood Health Online in their benefits plan. Homewood Online provides a variety of helpful wellness resources, including:

Homeweb, an online and mobile health and wellness portal,
Health Risk Assessment, a group of assessment tools to help plan members identify and overcome health and wellness barriers, and
Online Internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy (iCBT) through Sentio to manage symptoms of anxiety and/or depression.

Questions

To learn more about Homewood Health’s services, contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Account Executive.

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