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1. Path to Success Module 4
2. [pdf] Dollar Cost Averaging
3. [pdf] Do you know Leona
4. EAMG Market Commentary August 2022
    

   August 2022
   
   The S&P 500 fell into bear market territory over the first half of 2022 with the index down -20.6%. This represented a top 10 ranking amongst the most dismal back-to-back quarterly performances going back to 1928. While comparisons have been made to the inflation driven bear market of 1973-74, the economic backdrop today has some significant differences including greater production capacity (factory utilization rates are running about 20% lower vs the 70’s) and a meaningful decline in raw industrial prices which have fallen -11% over the quarter. While these economic anecdotes are potential positives for the future, it’s important to remain cognizant that prices remain elevated.
   
   As such, the US Federal Reserve seems to be taking every opportunity to telegraph their intentions of raising interest rates at the expense of both market and economic performance, so long as inflation remains a threat. Given this hawkish tone, the market narrative has morphed from fears of inflation to a fed driven recession. As a result, the move in the bond market has been swift with the 10-year treasury yield peaking at approximately 3.5% in June to today’s level of 2.7% (lower rates = higher bond prices). This positive bond performance reflects the consensus view that inflation is temporary (2023 CPI forecasts are approximately 3.6% vs the second quarter’s 8.7% CPI reading) and could allow the Fed to adjust their higher interest rate trajectory downward. The Fed also remains confident that a soft landing is achievable, and a recession avoidable.
   
   Investors seem less convinced however, given the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing before, and so it’s no surprise equity markets entered a bear market over the quarter, and currently remain in a technical correction (defined as losses greater than -10%). To better assess future performance, we closely monitor earnings results to understand how companies are navigating these economic trends. With nearly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, the results have been better than expected, but still the EPS beat rate and magnitude of beats (actual vs expectation) remain below 5-year averages. This tells us companies are finding today’s economic conditions more challenging than the recent past. Consumer sectors including marketing, retail, autos and textiles posted the 2nd worst performance vs other sectors while the Financials sector saw the greatest challenges with aggregate EPS falling by -15% year-over-year. Wall Street analysts have started to revise S&P 500 forward growth estimates lower, a trend which we expect will continue for several quarters ahead. The forward (12-month blended) P/E ratio of 17.5 times remains 1.5 multiple points above the long-term average which potentially suggests risks may not be fully priced in.
   
   In terms of the S&P/TSX Composite, after declining nearly -14% in Q2 as recession fears around the world jeopardized the global demand outlook, its’ since rebounded over 4.0%. Still, valuation remains below longer-term averages at 11.8x forward earnings with the heavier weighted Financials and Energy sectors trading at 9.5x and 7.9x, respectively. TSX earnings expectations have stalled as of late but downward revisions are lagging US and European counterparts. Additionally, the domestic labour market remains tight which has allowed the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive rate hike path to curb soaring inflation. For most of 2022 the TSX has benefitted from surging commodity prices but an economic slowdown in China resulting from its commitment to a zero-Covid policy and a potential global recession could prove to be a challenge for the Canadian market.
   
   Equity markets on average lose 30% of their value in recession led bear markets. If we use this as a potential road map, it suggests the S&P 500 could have further to fall. Using past performance as a forward-looking tool however is an imperfect technique and used in isolation of what’s happening today can often mislead.
   
   Accounting for today’s backdrop, we come up with three scenarios of varying probabilities. The first is the most optimistic and includes an engineered soft landing by the Fed, meaning no recession and inflation cools. A less optimistic view is the fed tames inflation with higher interest rates but tips the economy into a mild-to-moderate recession. The outcome would be consumer spending and corporate hiring slow as a result of tighter financial conditions, and therefore financial results are negatively impacted. The least optimistic scenario is one where stagflationary conditions emerge as inflation continues to accelerate at the expense of growth despite higher interest rates, in other words the Fed loses control. The net result would be similar to our second scenario but with much more dire results in terms of unemployment, household spending and impacts to corporate profitability. While we don’t rule out any of the above scenarios completely, we assign the highest probability to the second one where macro economic issues get resolved at some point in the future, but the full effects of inflation and a possible recession have yet to be priced into the market. Currently, this view translates into a slight underweight equity position versus our benchmark with a tilt towards low volatility and defensive strategies along with an overlay of value and dividend paying securities. In other words, we’ve de-risked the portfolios relative to our benchmark to manage potential downside risks but remain meaningfully invested an on absolute basis. As always, time in the market tends to overcome trying to time the market, and so employing a strategic and diversified strategy is often the most prudent approach.
   
   
   Downloadable Copy
   
   
   
   ADVISOR USE ONLY
   Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

5. Cost Transparency: Why Preparation Matters
6. [pdf] EquiNet Quick Tips
7. Extending premium relief for Dental and Extended Health Care benefits

   We know this continues to be a challenging time for Canadian employers and we remain committed to looking for ways to help your clients manage while still supporting their employees.

   Although many health practitioners have re-opened as pandemic restrictions are lifted, plan member use of dental benefits and some health benefits still remains lower than normal in June.

   We are pleased to announce that we are extending premium relief for all Traditional and myFlex insured non-refund customers for Health and Dental benefits for the month of June, as follows:

   • A 25% reduction on Dental premiums; and
   • A 5% reduction on Extended Health Care premiums.

   These reductions are effective for June 2020 and will appear as a credit on the July bill, or against the next available billing. We will assess the situation monthly and will continue with monthly refunds for as long as the current crisis period continues. The size of the credit may change over time as dentists and other health practitioners gradually reopen their offices. We will confirm premium credits for July (if any) at a later date. Credits for subsequent months will be communicated on a month-by-month basis.

   In order to be eligible for the monthly credit calculation and payout, a policy must be in force on the first of the month and remain in force thereafter. The monthly credit calculation is based on employees in force on the June bill. If employees experienced layoffs during the month, that would not affect eligibility for a premium credit as long as the benefit itself is not terminated.

   We expect that claims experience and premiums will return to normal once the current pandemic restrictions are lifted.

   In the meantime, plan members will continue to have full access to their benefits coverage throughout the pandemic. In many cases, dental offices have remained open for emergency services, and a variety of healthcare providers are available virtually.

   Commissions

   We know the pandemic has put financial strain on your business as well, so we will continue to pay full compensation. Although your overall commission will be unaffected by these premium reduction adjustments, you may see a temporary reduction in your commission payments if you are on a pay-as-earned basis.

   Communication

   We will be communicating this premium relief program to your clients later this week.

   Questions?

   If you have any questions, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager. You can also refer to our online COVID-19 Group Benefits FAQ.

8. Announcing Equitable Life's National Biosimilar Program Beginning March 1, 2024, we are expanding our biosimilar switch program nationally** to protect all our clients and to make our coverage consistent across Canada.
   
   Our national biosimilar initiative will simplify drug plan coverage, replacing our provincial programs with one program across the country.
    

   Why now?

   Over the past few years, most provinces have introduced policies to delist some originator biologic drugs. They require most patients to switch to biosimilar versions of those drugs to be eligible for coverage under their public drug plans. Soon, it is expected that all provincial drug plans will cover only biosimilars.
   
   In response, we have implemented biosimilar switch initiatives in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia to align with these provincial changes. Our initiatives are designed to protect our clients from additional drug costs that may result from these government policies while providing access to equally safe and effective lower cost biosimilars.
    

   How will this affect clients’ drug plans?

   Because we have already introduced biosimilar switch initiatives in most provinces, the impact of this change will be minimal. It will primarily affect plan members in provinces or territories where we haven’t already required the switch to biosimilars, and plan members who are taking biosimilars that were not originally included in the switch initiative for their province. 
   
   Regardless of where they live, plan members across Canada will no longer be eligible for most originator biologic drugs if they have a condition for which Health Canada has approved a lower cost biosimilar version of the drug. Plan members already taking the originator biologic will be required to switch to a biosimilar version of the drug to maintain coverage under their Equitable plan. We will support their transition with education, personalized communication, and resources.
    

   Will this change affect clients' rates?

   Any cost savings associated with the change will be factored in at renewal.

   
   What is the difference between biologics and biosimilars?

   Biologics are drugs that are engineered using living organisms like yeast and bacteria. The first version of a biologic developed is known as the “originator” biologic. Biosimilars are highly similar to the drugs they are based on, and Health Canada considers them to be equally safe and effective for approved conditions.
    

   Advance notice

   We will be communicating with affected claimants in early December to allow them ample time to change their prescription and avoid any interruptions in their treatment or their coverage. 
   
   If you have any questions about this change, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Account Executive.
   
   
   **Excludes plan members in Quebec who participate in a separate provincial program. 
9. Celebrating our most popular Pivotal Select funds

   In August 2022, Equitable^® launched 12 new segregated funds in Pivotal Select’s Investment Class (75/75). We wanted to bring some new innovative solutions to the product, including six sustainable investment funds. To say the launch of these funds was successful would be an understatement.
   
   The funds are quickly becoming some of the most popular funds in Pivotal Select™, and their performance in 2023 was impressive. Equitable wants to celebrate these funds and encourage clients to consider them for their portfolios.
   
   As of February 29, 2024, nine out of the 12 funds received a 1st quartile ranking for their 1-year return and two more were 2nd quartile. The table below shows the new funds that ranked in the top two quartiles for their 1-year returns.

   
   

   Access additional fund performance information
   
   If you haven’t looked at these funds yet, now is the time. Speak to clients about their investment options and see if these funds fit within their investment portfolio.
   
   Talk to your Director, Investment Sales today for more information.

    

   Disclaimer

   Any amount that is allocated to a segregated fund is invested at the risk of the contractholder and may increase or decrease in value. Segregated fund values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors do not purchase an interest in underlying securities or funds, but rather, an individual variable insurance contract issued by The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada. There are risks involved with investing in segregated funds. Please read the Contract and Information Folder before investing for a description of risks relevant to each segregated fund and for a complete description of product features and guarantees. Copies of the Contract and Information Folder are available on equitable.ca.

   Management Expense Ratios (MERs) are based on figures as of February 29, 2024, and are unaudited. MERs may vary at any time. The MER is the combination of the management fee, insurance fee, operating expenses, HST, and any other applicable non-income tax for the fund and for the underlying fund. For clients with larger contract values, a Management Fee Reduction may be available through the Preferred Pricing Program. For details, please see the Pivotal Select Contract and Information Folder.

   ® and TM denote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.

    

   Posted April 18, 2024