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  1. Additions and Increases
  2. Market Commentary January 2026 EAMG-(1).png

    Key Take
    aways

    Full year 2025:
    • Government policy was very impactful for markets in 2025. U.S. trade policy unsettled markets in the first half of the year, as the U.S. implemented significant tariffs and engaged in tough negotiations with major trading partners. However, by mid-year, fiscal policy provided positive support for markets, particularly with the passing in the U.S. of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July.
    • Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) continued to attract investment, particularly in the United States. This investment provided strong support for equity market performance.
    • Global equity markets delivered strong performance, most notably Canadian equities, which returned an impressive 31.7%.
    • Positive risk appetite supported solid corporate bond performance, which outpaced government bonds.

    Fourth Quarter:
    • U.S. equities advanced at a slower pace in the fourth quarter after a strong surge in the prior two quarters. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities, fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors.
    • Canadian bond markets posted slightly negative returns during the quarter as higher interest rates weighed on performance. Strong corporate bond performance partially offset weakness in government bonds.
    • Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered policy interest rates during the quarter, with Canada dropping its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and the U.S. dropping its policy rate by 50 basis points. Both central banks signalled a cautious approach for further easing.

    Economic and Market Update

    Economic Summary: The U.S. economy continued to expand at a moderate pace, supported by strong consumer spending and AI investment. However, job growth slowed and the unemployment rate has edged higher. Inflation remains higher than the 2% target, despite easing trends. While some U.S. trading partners have made trade agreements, uncertainty remains regarding reciprocal tariffs, with a case before the U.S. Supreme Court as to their legality. The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate twice during the quarter, first in October and again in December, to reach a target rate of 3.50% to 3.75%. Chair Powell cited downside risks to employment as a key factor behind the rate cut decisions and emphasized that officials are “well positioned” to wait and assess how the economy evolves.

    In Canada, U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber have weighed heavily on these sectors. While most goods continue to enter the U.S. tariff-free due to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (“CUSMA”), broader  uncertainty around U.S. trade policy is dampening business investment. Third quarter GDP growth exceeded market expectations, but growth tracked weaker in the fourth quarter amid the trade disputes. The labour market showed signs of improvement in the fourth quarter after earlier weakness. Headline inflation has hovered near the 2% target, while core inflation remained persistent. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in October and made no changes in December. Going into 2026, trade uncertainty remains with the CUSMA up for renegotiation. The Bank of Canada reiterated its readiness to respond if new shocks or accumulating evidence materially alter the outlook.
     

    Bond.pngBond Markets: During the quarter, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned -0.3% as interest rates on Canadian bonds rose (bond prices fall as interest rates go up). The increase reflected reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and a higher risk premium demanded by investors for long-term debt. Although interest rates increased, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to move lower. These lower credit spreads resulted in positive overall returns for corporate bonds in the quarter, despite the overall bond market recording a loss. Tightening credit spreads reflected the continued risk-on tone to the market. Despite some volatility, lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now rallied back to the tightest spreads since the 2008 financial crisis, nearing the tightest spreads in history. Despite expensive levels, investors remain buyers of corporate bonds, evidenced not just by falling  credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to set new records, with an impressive $37.5 billion in new issuance in the fourth quarter helping 2025 to exceed the prior year’s issuance. All told, 2025 saw an impressive $160 billion in new issuance via 358 new bonds, versus 2024’s prior record of $139 billion from 301 new bonds.


    Stocks.pngStock Markets: The fourth quarter marked a pivotal shift in the global equity market rally of 2025. After three quarters of a highly concentrated, tech-led rally in the U.S., cyclical and valueoriented sectors outperformed in Q4. The S&P 500 advanced at a slower 2.7% in the fourth quarter, reflecting a market that is recalibrating after an extended period of concentrated gains. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities as the S&P/TSX Composite returned 6.3% in the quarter, finishing the year with an impressive 31.7% return. That was its strongest annual gain since 2009. The strong returns in Canadian equities were fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials sector, supported by soaring gold and base metal prices, and reinforced by the resilience of the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors. Internationally, developed markets in Europe and Asia gained 6.2% for the quarter, bringing their annual return to 21.2%. This move signals a healthy rebalancing as global investors rotated into attractivelyvalued international equities to hedge against elevated U.S. valuations. Capital is now flowing toward regions and sectors offering stronger earnings visibility and defensive characteristics rather than purely speculative growth.


    U.S. Equities: U.S. equities entered the fourth quarter at elevated valuations. Despite fundamentally strong earnings growth, stock prices struggled to move higher because investor expectations were for even stronger growth. Technology remained the primary driver of earnings, but the sector faced intense pressure to prove its value. Specifically, investors questioned the pace at which companies could convert AI investments into actual revenue. Investors also worried that growth remained concentrated among too few companies rather than more broadly across the economy. Sector-wise, Communication Services emerged as the top performer for the full year due to significant margin expansion. This was driven by a wave of media-related merger activity and the successful use of AI to make digital advertising more efficient. Industrials also advanced as new tax incentives for domestic manufacturing boosted factory orders. Nevertheless, the market remains concentrated with the top ten stocks representing nearly 40% of the S&P 500 Index. This level of concentration makes the market vulnerable to sudden price swings. As inflation moderated and the Federal Reserve cut rates in December, investors shifted toward more defensive sectors and international equities. This rotation signals a preference for companies with stable cash flows over speculative growth.


    Canadian Equities: The Canadian market was a global standout during the quarter, supported by lower borrowing costs, a stable Financials sector, and rally in the prices of metals (including gold, but also base metals like nickel and copper). The Materials sector led the way as a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions pushed gold to a record of US$4,550 per ounce in late December. For major mining companies, these prices generated record cash flow allowing them to raise dividends and buy back shares. The Bank of Canada interest rate cut supported both the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors, reducing borrowing costs, and helping banks maintain stable net interest margins. The Big Six Canadian Banks delivered strong earnings results in Q4. These were driven by a surge in capital markets activity and better-than-expected provisions for credit losses, as the economy remained resilient. Trading at 17 times forward earnings, the Canadian market appears attractively valued, prompting investors to shift away from U.S. volatility toward more tangible assets and reliable dividends.


    Bottom line:  The final quarter of 2025 saw a notable shift in investor positioning. As recession fears receded, attention turned to navigating a period of moderate economic expansion. In Canada, capital flowed into profitable, cash flow-generating companies in the Financials and Material sectors. Momentum in U.S. equities slowed as investors reduced risk amid caution around AI developments. Although major indices remain highly valued, opportunities persist in sectors and regions with stable cash flows and pricing power.


    Downloadable Copy
     
    Mark Warywoda, CFA
    VP, Public Investments
    Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA
    AVP, Public Investments
    Johanna Shaw, CFA
    Director, Public Investments
    Jin Li
    Director, Equity Investments
       
     
    Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM
    Sr. Quantitative Analyst
     
    Andrew Vermeer, CFA
    Senior Analyst, Credit
     
    Elizabeth Ayodele 
    Analyst, Credit
     
    Edward Ng Cheng Hin
    Analyst, Credit

    Kate (Huyen) Vinh
    Analyst, Equity

    Francie Chen
    Analyst, Rates

    ADVISOR USE ONLY
    Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
  3. Cost Transparency: Why Preparation Matters
  4. About
  5. Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - November 2022

    The importance of timely plan member eligibility updates*

    Effective Dec. 1, 2022, we are implementing a revised process for managing plan member and dependent health and dental claims that have been incurred and paid after coverage has been terminated. This new process is consistent with industry practices.
     
    If health or dental claims have been incurred and paid after a plan member’s termination date but before we received notice of the termination, we will align the plan member’s or dependent’s termination date with the service date of the last paid claim, retaining premiums up until that date.
     
    If no claims have been incurred and paid after the termination date, Equitable Life will process the termination as requested and refund any excess premium, subject to a maximum premium refund credit of three months.
     
    Currently, we process the termination as requested and attempt to recover any claim overpayments directly from the plan member. We then refund any excess premiums that have been paid, subject to the maximum refund credit amount.
     
    To avoid claims being incurred and paid after a plan member’s termination date, it is important for your clients to update plan member and dependent eligibility dates on or before the effective date of the change.
     
    If you have any questions about the process your clients should follow for updating plan member eligibility, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.

    QuickAssess®: Absence and accommodation request review services*

    It can be difficult to navigate chronic or complex cases of absenteeism or accommodation requests. That’s where QuickAssess® can help.
     
    QuickAssess is an optional, fee-per-use service that can provide your clients with an unbiased, timely assessment of complex plan member absences and workplace accommodation requests. Our disability experts can provide recommendations to help your clients manage:
    • Workplace absences
    • Chronic or patterned absenteeism
    • Requests to modify workplaces or duties
    • Return-to-work coordination
    • Employee Insurance sick leaves
    Based on a thorough review of information provided by the plan sponsor, the plan member, and their physician, our QuickAssess specialists provide a recommendation within two business days on how to manage the absence or accommodation request.** Your clients can then decide how to manage the plan member request and communicate their decision accordingly.
     
    For more information on using QuickAssess, including eligibility requirements, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.

    **Within two business days of receiving a completed QuickAssess Absence and Accommodation Review Referral Form and all required information. For more complex referrals, more time will be required.

    Finding a health care provider with TELUS eClaims direct billing*

    By visiting TELUS’s Find a Provider page, your clients’ plan members can now easily search for paramedical and vision providers who are registered on the TELUS Health eClaims network and who can submit claims directly to us on behalf of their patients. Searches can be filtered by postal code to help plan members find the most convenient provider options.

    As our direct billing provider for pharmacy, vision and paramedical claims, TELUS Health has an extensive network of 70,000 health care providers that provide direct billing to streamline the claims process.

    Please note, plan members should always check Equitable Life’s list of de-listed providers before selecting a health care provider. The list is available for your clients and their plan members on EquitableHealth.ca, and is updated regularly.

    For more information about TELUS eClaims, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.

    First phase of the Canada Dental Benefit proposed for Dec. 1, 2022*

    The federal government’s new Canada Dental Benefit is proposed to take effect on Dec. 1, 2022, subject to Parliamentary approval. The program will cover eligible expenses retroactive to Oct. 1, 2022, and this first phase would apply to Canadians under 12 years of age.

    If implemented, the Canada Dental Benefit will provide dental care to Canadian families with under $90,000 adjusted net income annually. By 2025, the federal government expects to extend the benefit to children under 18, senior citizens and Canadians with disabilities.

    Parents or guardians will be required to apply for this coverage through the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) and must not have private dental coverage for the child(ren).

    This new program will have no impact on your clients’ dental coverage and no action is required on their part.

    * Indicates content that will be shared with your clients.
     
  6. Simpler juvenile policy approvals

    A win for you and clients 


    Get insurance protection in place more quickly for kid’s policies with an enhanced juvenile underwriting model. It’s an industry-leading predictive model that extends existing auto-assess capabilities for your juvenile applications.  
     
    What does this mean for you?   
    You will notice reduced wait times as clients get the protection they need faster. And you will receive your commission quicker as well. This gives both you and your Equitable® underwriter time to focus on supporting your complex cases to bring you our best offer. The new auto-approval model for juvenile policies is a win for all. 
     
    Give us a try!  
    See for yourself how we can help you get protection in place for clients quickly. 

    Contact your Equitable wholesaler for more information.

    ® or TM denote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
  7. Get to know our large case experts
    Equitable launches new Ask our Experts video series

    At Equitable®, we’re committed to the large case market. Our dedicated team of experts is here to support you from application through to policy placement.

    We are thrilled to share the first episode of Ask our Experts. This mini docuseries features key members of our large case team. They talk about their work, their perspectives, and their role in the large case experience.

    Watch Ask our Experts Episode 1 featuring Cindy Shirley, Chief Underwriter and Claims Risk Management

    Cindy chats with us about:
    • Her approach to large case underwriting.
    • The large case underwriting team.
    • The important relationship between advisors and underwriters.
    Visit our large case markets webpage to learn more about our team of dedicated experts.

    Do you have a large case opportunity? Talk to your wholesaler to learn more.
















    ® and ™ denote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
     
  8. Financial planning concepts & tools
  9. Online Annuity Quotation
  10. Online Annuity Quote