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Market Commentary January 2025
Key Takeaways
Full year 2024:
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Despite reductions of policy-setting interest rates by central banks, yields on longer-term bonds finished the year higher than they started the year.
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Positive risk appetite helped corporate bonds perform well, led by lower-quality issuers.
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Global equity markets posted robust returns, with U.S. equities outperforming other developed markets, driven by heavy concentration into the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks.
Fourth Quarter:
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Central banks continued to ease monetary policy in Q4, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy interest rate more aggressively than did the U.S. Federal Reserve.
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The Republican victory across both the executive and legislative branches in the U.S. ignited expectations of economic growth, pushing bond yields and stock prices higher.
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Risk sentiment helped corporate bonds continue to outperform government bonds.
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Markets remained volatile: while North American stock markets continued to outperform most international indices, Canadian stocks managed to outperform U.S. stocks in Q4, as sources of returns in the U.S. narrowed into year-end.
Economic and Market Update
Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace in Q4. The rate of inflation continued to slow but remained above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, as the unemployment rate has remained low compared to historical norms. A decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party further boosted expectations for continued growth. The return of the President-elect’s old tactics of threatening tariffs to influence trade, security, and drug control re-introduced some economic uncertainty, particularly regarding the potential return of inflationary pressures. Those concerns prompted the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its policy easing, as it lowered rates by just 0.25% at each of its two meetings in Q4, following the 0.50% cut in September. Throughout 2024, the Fed reduced rates by a total of 100 basis points, from 5.50% to 4.50%. Nonetheless, bond yields were significantly higher for most maturity terms during the fourth quarter as the market priced in not just a stronger economy than had been the expectation during Q3, implying less interest rate cuts by the Fed, but also growing concerns about the government deficit.
In Canada, growth remained positive during 2024 and improved a bit to close the year, but continued to fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations. Similarly, inflation came in lower than expected and below the Bank’s 2% target. The labour market continued to soften for much of the year, with employment growth falling short of labour force growth. The weakness in the labour market and economy, along with tamed inflation, prompted the Central Bank to cut rates at the pace of 50 basis points at each of its two meetings in Q4. For the full year, the Bank of Canada ended up lowering its policy rate by a total of 175 basis points, from 5% to 3.25%. The market has been expecting the Bank of Canada to need to continue cutting rates due to slower economic growth in Canada, but the fear of a possible trade war with the U.S. has made the economic outlook somewhat murkier.
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Bond Markets: During the quarter, yields on mid- to long-term bonds in Canada rose in sympathy with rising bond yields in the U.S. However, bond yields in Canada rose to a lesser extent, and yields on shorter-term bonds were actually little changed over the quarter. The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was basically flat during Q4 and posted a return of 4.2% for the full year. Although interest rates rose, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to grind lower, helping corporate bonds post positive overall returns in the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels similar to those experienced in 2021, when markets did quite well after the pandemic. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continued to be very robust in the quarter, with $30 billion in new issuance, resulting in a record-breaking year with $141 billion of new issuance in 2024. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.
Stock Markets – Overview: Trump’s presidential victory and the Republican party’s ‘red sweep’ in the Senate and House of Representatives sparked optimism surrounding economic growth and a new era of U.S. exceptionalism. As a result, North American equity markets extended their rally in Q4, capping off a year of robust returns. The S&P 500 returned 2.4%, bringing its year-to-date return to 25%. Within the U.S., the broadening of returns paused during the quarter as the chase for growth intensified, with mega-cap growth names like Tesla driving performance. Canadian equities surprisingly outperformed the U.S. market over the quarter, returning 3.8% in Q4, despite threats of widespread tariff negotiations looming on the horizon that could negatively impact Canadian corporate fundamentals. At a sector level, strength in the technology, financials, and energy sectors more than offset weakness in telecommunication companies as well as in the materials sector. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) underperformed last quarter as deteriorating Chinese growth prospects and weak economic growth in the Eurozone weighed on equities. Notably, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities benefitted from a rebounding U.S. dollar with the dollar index adding over 7.6% in Q4.
U.S. Equities: U.S. equities remain supported by resilient margins and strong corporate earnings growth with over 70% of businesses surpassing bottom-line expectations last quarter. We remain attentive to the broadening of earnings performance and note that this trend has continued, albeit at a normalized pace versus prior quarters. More specifically, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000, excluding the Magnificent 7, posted median earnings growth of 6% last quarter, down from nearly 9% in Q3 but comparable to Q2 (6%). Looking forward to 2025, analysts continue to forecast U.S. exceptionalism, with forecasts of ~12% earnings growth.
Following Trump’s presidential victory, stocks with greater sensitivity to the U.S. economy, such as small cap businesses, benefitted from expectations of domestically focused growth initiatives. However, stubborn inflation and expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the trend of broadening sources of returns pause into the end of the year. Instead, market concentration reaccelerated with investors rushing back towards mega-cap growth stocks. In fact, Tesla – which is approximately 2% of the S&P 500 Index by market cap – contributed approximately one-third of the total index return in Q4, while the Mag 7 as a group contributed over 100% of total returns. In other words, U.S. large cap companies excluding the Magnificent 7 declined in aggregate last quarter.
Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of cooling inflation and below-trend growth, the Bank of Canada continued to loosen monetary policy. As a result, Canadian companies
showed signs of improving efficiency with return on equity – a gauge of corporate profitability – improving versus prior quarters. Under these conditions, investors remained focused on higher quality, high-dividend paying companies – particularly within the financial sector. Relative to prior quarters, this group witnessed greater contribution out of non-bank financials (such as asset managers and insurance companies), as the premium investors were willing to pay for Canadian banks remained elevated. Across other sectors, the energy sector had a positive quarter as the price of oil stabilized, but falling prices for raw industrials pushed the materials sector lower.
Bottom line: U.S. political developments and subsequent growth expectations dominated market sentiment last quarter. As a result, investors dialed back rate cut expectations and bond yields moved higher. In equity markets, the potential for an era of higher-for-longer rates prompted a resumption of investors crowding into growth stocks. Going forward, we remain cautious of elevated valuations and continue to prioritize diversified sources of returns with a long-term outlook. Nonetheless, despite rich valuations, our base case remains that investors’ enthusiasm for equities will persist in the near-term and stocks should continue to outperform bonds.
Downloadable Copy
ADVISOR USE ONLYMark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public Portfolio ManagementIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public Portfolio ManagementJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Portfolio ManagementJin Li
Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA
Senior Analyst, Equity
Andrew Vermeer
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
Francie Chen
Analyst, Rates
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
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- Path to Success Module 5
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More time to complete and view applications on EZcomplete
You asked for more time, we listened!
Effective January 14, 2023, you will have more time to complete and view in-flight and completed applications on the EZcomplete® dashboard.
You will now have,
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There are no changes to EZcomplete’s Sandbox. Applications in the Practice Site will continue to be deleted after 10 calendar days.Take me to the Sandbox
Take me to EZcomplete
Play around in the Sandbox with a demo client account.
Submit your applications today.
If you have any questions, contact your Regional Investment Sales Manager or Advisor Services Team Monday to Friday, 8:30 a.m. – 7:30 p.m. ET at 1.866.884.7427, or email savingsretirement@equitable.ca.
*Insurance applications currently offer 30 calendar days
** In-flight applications created prior to January 14, 2023, will maintain the existing 10-day submission timeline.
® denote a trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
Posted: January 14, 2023 - Path to Success Module 3
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April 2024 eNews
In this issue:
- Competitive – and easy – benefits plans for your small business clients
- Simplifying benefits enrolment for your clients*
- NEW time-off tracking tool from HRdownloads*
- Focus on benefits fraud: Protecting your clients’ plans from abuse*
Competitive – and easy – benefits plans for your small business clients
Supporting your small business clients can be a challenge. It’s tough to find a competitively-priced benefits plan with the features they want. Small business owners may also need more of your time – especially if this is their first benefits plan.
That’s why we created Equitable EZBenefits™, a benefits solution designed with the needs of small businesses in mind. With a range of plan design options and valuable embedded services for plan sponsors and plan members, EZBenefits is available for groups with 2 to 25 employees. And to make things simpler for you, we’ve created an Advisor Concierge Service exclusively for EZBenefits. Whether you have a question about submitting a quote request for a new client or an issue with an in-force client, our Concierge Service is your go-to resource for EZBenefits support.Don’t have any EZBenefits clients yet?
To learn more about EZBenefits, watch our video to learn more or view our brochure.Simplifying benefits enrolment for your clients*
Navigating the benefits enrolment period can be overwhelming – for you, your clients and their employees. It’s difficult to ensure all plan members complete the necessary paperwork before the enrolment deadline.
That’s why we offer our secure Online Plan Member Enrolment tool at no extra cost to plan sponsors. The tool simplifies the onboarding process for your clients and their plan members by eliminating the need for paper enrolment forms.
It also makes enrolment faster and easier for your clients by:- Reducing errors and rework that can occur due to spelling mistakes or missing information on paper forms; and
- Sending automatic enrolment reminders to plan members, resulting in fewer late applicants.
- Enrol in their benefits plan in just minutes from their computer or mobile device;
- Easily enter all their enrolment information, including dependent details, banking information for direct deposit of claim payments and details for coordination of benefits; and
- Designate their beneficiary electronically.
Ready to share our Online Plan Enrolment Tool with your clients? Get them started with these helpful resources:
- Online Plan Member Enrolment Flyer for Plan Administrators
- Online Plan Member Enrolment Quick Reference Guide for Plan Administrators
- Quick Reference Guide for Plan Members
To learn more about how Online Plan Member Enrolment can simplify benefits enrolment for your clients, contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Account Executive.
NEW time-off tracking tool from HRdownloads*
Through our partnership with HRdownloads®, EZBenefits clients now have complimentary access to Timetastic —a time-off tracking tool that can make it easier to manage employee vacation time, sick days and more.
Timetastic integrates seamlessly with HRdownloads and includes a mobile app to help manage time-off requests from any mobile device.
To see Timetastic in action, check out this demo.
EZBenefits also includes other helpful resources and tools from HRdownloads that can make daily human resources tasks easier, including:- A robust, award-winning HR management platform (HRIS);
- HR documents, templates, compliance resources and articles; and
- A live HR advice helpline.
Learn more about accessing HRdownloads.Focus on benefits fraud: protecting your clients’ plans from abuse*
According to the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association (CLHIA), benefits fraud costs insurers and plan sponsors millions of dollars each year, which can lead to increased premium costs.
Resources for your clients
Both plan administrators and plan members play a role in preventing benefits abuse. So, we’ve compiled some resources you can share with your clients to help them understand what benefits fraud is and how to prevent it:- CLHIA’s free 15-minute Protect Your Benefits online course for plan administrators and their members
- CLHIA’s Fraud is Fraud program, including their FAQs on benefits fraud
- Our online guide to benefits abuse
- Tips for plan administrators and plan members to protect their plan
How we’re fighting benefits fraud
Our Investigative Claims Unit (ICU) works to detect and eliminate benefits fraud. We use a variety of investigative techniques, including CLHIA-led industry tools to detect and eliminate benefits fraud:- Joint Provider Fraud Investigation Program: A robust program that allows insurers to collaborate on fraud investigations that affect multiple insurers;
- Data Pooling Program: An initiative that pools data between insurers and uses advanced artificial intelligence to further identify and reduce benefits fraud; and
- Provider Alert Registry: A registry that allows insurers to view the results of other insurers’ anti-fraud investigations into specific practitioners.
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