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EAMG Market Commentary August 2022

August 2022

The S&P 500 fell into bear market territory over the first half of 2022 with the index down -20.6%. This represented a top 10 ranking amongst the most dismal back-to-back quarterly performances going back to 1928. While comparisons have been made to the inflation driven bear market of 1973-74, the economic backdrop today has some significant differences including greater production capacity (factory utilization rates are running about 20% lower vs the 70’s) and a meaningful decline in raw industrial prices which have fallen -11% over the quarter. While these economic anecdotes are potential positives for the future, it’s important to remain cognizant that prices remain elevated.

As such, the US Federal Reserve seems to be taking every opportunity to telegraph their intentions of raising interest rates at the expense of both market and economic performance, so long as inflation remains a threat. Given this hawkish tone, the market narrative has morphed from fears of inflation to a fed driven recession. As a result, the move in the bond market has been swift with the 10-year treasury yield peaking at approximately 3.5% in June to today’s level of 2.7% (lower rates = higher bond prices). This positive bond performance reflects the consensus view that inflation is temporary (2023 CPI forecasts are approximately 3.6% vs the second quarter’s 8.7% CPI reading) and could allow the Fed to adjust their higher interest rate trajectory downward. The Fed also remains confident that a soft landing is achievable, and a recession avoidable.

Investors seem less convinced however, given the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing before, and so it’s no surprise equity markets entered a bear market over the quarter, and currently remain in a technical correction (defined as losses greater than -10%). To better assess future performance, we closely monitor earnings results to understand how companies are navigating these economic trends. With nearly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, the results have been better than expected, but still the EPS beat rate and magnitude of beats (actual vs expectation) remain below 5-year averages. This tells us companies are finding today’s economic conditions more challenging than the recent past. Consumer sectors including marketing, retail, autos and textiles posted the 2nd worst performance vs other sectors while the Financials sector saw the greatest challenges with aggregate EPS falling by -15% year-over-year. Wall Street analysts have started to revise S&P 500 forward growth estimates lower, a trend which we expect will continue for several quarters ahead. The forward (12-month blended) P/E ratio of 17.5 times remains 1.5 multiple points above the long-term average which potentially suggests risks may not be fully priced in.

In terms of the S&P/TSX Composite, after declining nearly -14% in Q2 as recession fears around the world jeopardized the global demand outlook, its’ since rebounded over 4.0%. Still, valuation remains below longer-term averages at 11.8x forward earnings with the heavier weighted Financials and Energy sectors trading at 9.5x and 7.9x, respectively. TSX earnings expectations have stalled as of late but downward revisions are lagging US and European counterparts. Additionally, the domestic labour market remains tight which has allowed the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive rate hike path to curb soaring inflation. For most of 2022 the TSX has benefitted from surging commodity prices but an economic slowdown in China resulting from its commitment to a zero-Covid policy and a potential global recession could prove to be a challenge for the Canadian market.

Equity markets on average lose 30% of their value in recession led bear markets. If we use this as a potential road map, it suggests the S&P 500 could have further to fall. Using past performance as a forward-looking tool however is an imperfect technique and used in isolation of what’s happening today can often mislead.

Accounting for today’s backdrop, we come up with three scenarios of varying probabilities. The first is the most optimistic and includes an engineered soft landing by the Fed, meaning no recession and inflation cools. A less optimistic view is the fed tames inflation with higher interest rates but tips the economy into a mild-to-moderate recession. The outcome would be consumer spending and corporate hiring slow as a result of tighter financial conditions, and therefore financial results are negatively impacted. The least optimistic scenario is one where stagflationary conditions emerge as inflation continues to accelerate at the expense of growth despite higher interest rates, in other words the Fed loses control. The net result would be similar to our second scenario but with much more dire results in terms of unemployment, household spending and impacts to corporate profitability. While we don’t rule out any of the above scenarios completely, we assign the highest probability to the second one where macro economic issues get resolved at some point in the future, but the full effects of inflation and a possible recession have yet to be priced into the market. Currently, this view translates into a slight underweight equity position versus our benchmark with a tilt towards low volatility and defensive strategies along with an overlay of value and dividend paying securities. In other words, we’ve de-risked the portfolios relative to our benchmark to manage potential downside risks but remain meaningfully invested an on absolute basis. As always, time in the market tends to overcome trying to time the market, and so employing a strategic and diversified strategy is often the most prudent approach.

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ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
EZ Upload
Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin – May 2021
In this issue:
- Graduating dependents losing coverage?*
- New Brunswick expands the use of biosimilars*
- Proposed changes to federal recovery and EI benefits*
- Removal of plan administrator access to update plan member banking*
- BioScript recognized as one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies*
*Indicates content that will be shared with your clients

Graduating dependents losing coverage?

Let plan members know about Coverage2go
As we reach the end of spring, some of your clients’ plan members may have dependents who are graduating from university or college and will no longer be eligible for coverage under the benefits plan.

Fortunately, we offer Coverage2go®. It allows individuals who are losing their group coverage to purchase personal month-to-month health and dental coverage that is affordable, reliable and works like their previous group benefits plan. They can choose the level of coverage and protection that suits their personal situation.

There are no medical questions – they simply need to apply within 60 days of losing their health coverage under their group benefits plan.*

Help your plan members and their dependents who are losing coverage by letting them know about Coverage2go. They can visit our website to learn more about Coverage2go and to get a quote.

*Quebec residents are not eligible for Coverage2go
New Brunswick expands the use of biosimilars
The New Brunswick government recently announced that it will be implementing a biosimilar transition program.

Patients using originator biologic drugs for diseases such as inflammatory arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, diabetes and psoriasis, will have until November 30, 2021 to switch to the biosimilar version of their medications in order to maintain coverage under the province’s public drug plans. This process will be completed in consultation with the patients’ physicians.

Biosimilars are highly similar to the drugs they are based on and Health Canada considers them to be equally safe and effective for approved conditions.

Equitable Life^® actively monitors and investigates all biosimilar policy changes and the ongoing evolution of biosimilar drugs entering Canada. We will keep you informed of any impact on private drug plans and how we are responding.
Proposed changes to federal recovery and EI benefits

In its recent 2021 budget, the federal government proposed a variety of changes to its benefit programs.

The proposed changes include providing up to 12 additional weeks of the Canada Recovery Benefit to a maximum of 50 weeks. The first 12 weeks of this benefit would be paid at $500 per week and the remaining eight weeks at $300 per week.

Multiple changes have also been proposed to make Employment Insurance (EI) more accessible to Canadians. The changes include: maintaining uniform access to EI benefits across all regions, supporting multiple job holders and those who switch jobs by ensuring that all insurable hours and employment count towards their eligibility, and simplifying many rules around EI to ensure Canadians can receive benefits sooner. It has also been proposed that the regular EI benefits be extended to no later than November 20, 2021, if needed.

We are analyzing the impact these changes may have to disability benefits. We will provide more details later in the year.

Removal of plan administrator access to update plan member banking

In early June, plan administrators will no longer be able to update banking information for their plan members on EquitableHealth.ca after their initial enrolment. This change has been made to allow plan members to have full control over where they want their claim payments deposited.
Plan members can update their banking information online through their plan member web portal or through the EZClaim mobile app. They will continue to be notified via email if and when they make any changes.
BioScript Solutions recognized as one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies
Congratulations to our partner, BioScript Solutions, for being recognized as one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies of 2021 by Deloitte.

We have partnered with BioScript since 2016 for our Specialty Drug Preferred Pharmacy Network (PPN). This partnership offers cost savings while providing comprehensive, best-in-class patient care.

BioScript is one of Canada’s leading specialty pharmacies and recently celebrated its 20^th anniversary.
EAMG Market Commentary July 2023

July 17, 2023

Rates & Credit - The rates market was volatile in Q2 as investors focused on inflation, central bank interest rate decisions, and recession probabilities. Persistent strength in U.S. consumer spending and labour markets have surprised investors and prompted further interest rate tightening from central banks. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index during the quarter, with a total return of 0.2%, versus a loss of 1.0% for government bonds and 0.7% for the overall Index. The corporate bond outperformance was driven by a broad risk-on tone to the market, most notably in April as the market recovered from the banking sector liquidity crisis that developed during March. That said, the market tone remained cautious, with the improved risk premium on corporate bonds tempered by lingering concerns around sticky inflation, high interest rates, and the potential for slower economic growth into the latter half of the year.

Dominance of U.S. Equities – U.S. equity markets posted another strong quarter with the S&P 500 returning 8.7%, outperforming Canada and other major international equity markets. The S&P/TSX Composite, returned 1.2% in CAD. Major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) returned 3.2% in local currency terms. The highly anticipated re-opening of the Chinese economy has failed to materialize with economic data indicating less strength than previously forecasted. Amid sluggish Chinese growth, closely interconnected economic partners such as the European Union, as well as commodity-driven markets like Canada, have all underperformed the U.S. on a relative basis.

U.S. Fundamentals – Earnings continued to contract versus prior year, albeit at a slower pace than forecasted. Forward earnings guidance improved quarter-over-quarter with corporate sentiment returning to neutral levels. Based on our analysis, we observed that 31% of major companies expect deteriorating financial performance, while 33% expect improved performance, with the remaining expecting no material change. Overall, major U.S. companies remain well capitalized with strong operating margins. However, company guidance indicates a prioritization of cost controls amid increased consumer indebtedness and concerns about the health of the consumer.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Mania – Despite concerns that the U.S. economy is at a late stage in its economic cycle, that monetary tightening by central banks could go too far, and the fact that earnings contracted on a year-over-year basis, equity markets became more expensive during the quarter with price-to-earnings multiples expanding. This expansion was driven by investors crowding into AI focused technology companies, with the seven largest AI/technology themed companies averaging a 26% return while the other 493 members gained only 3%. Investors rewarded businesses with contributions to AI development (hardware and software components), as well as those with the ability to implement synergies from leveraging the technology. A crowded market surge is not uncommon at this point in the economic cycle, where positive economic surprises, in this instance, strong employment and consumer spending can lead to an upswelling in investor confidence.

U.S. Quant Factors – Using our investment framework, we currently favour exposures to large cash-rich companies with innovative product offerings, which we believe offer the strongest risk-adjusted returns in the current market environment. While the valuation of AI companies seems to defy traditional rationales, the momentum has continued to push the group higher. Consequently, the Quality factor (companies with higher return-on-equity, strong operating performance, and healthy leverage levels) participated in the AI trend and consistently outperformed throughout the quarter. The Low Volatility factor (stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement, and lower price volatility) underperformed through the quarter. While the Low Volatility factor typically performs well at this stage of the economic cycle, the fact that a small number of stocks were responsible for much of the market’s return hurt this factor. Lastly, the Momentum factor (stocks with a recent history of price appreciation) initially underperformed during the quarter before rebounding in June. This factor’s recent outperformance suggests that the market is becoming complacent and possibly signals that rotations within the market are slowing as current trends remain in favour.

Canadian Fundamentals – Top line revenue missed forecasts while bottom line earnings were consistent with expectations. Softer-than-expected results out of Canadian financials, as well as underwhelming results from the materials sector, dragged on the aggregate index performance. Earnings forecasts for the rest of the year have been revised downward with analyst expecting index aggregate earnings to detract 2% to 3%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.75% on the backdrop of robust economic data releases including Q1 GDP and April CPI.

Canadian Quant Factors – The most notable dislocation in Canada was the convergence of the dividend yield of High-Dividend ETFs and Equal-Weight Bank ETFs. We believe that the drag from Canadian banks following the U.S. regional banking concerns in March resulted in a discount of the Quality factor as the performance of the group is sensitive to the movements of banks. While banks did recover around 35% of their SVB-induced underperformance, the nature of banking has attracted investor scrutiny given the view that we are in the late-stage of the economic cycle. That said, this environment is an attractive environment to add variants of the Quality factor, which would gain exposure to a rebounding industry that offers a similar dividend yield to the high dividend stocks.

Views From the Frontline

Rates – On an outright basis, bond yields across the curve continue to look attractive. Economic data remains strong however we are beginning to see the first signs of weakness in spending, jobs and inflation. Slower growth, a more balanced labour market, declining inflation, and tighter credit conditions will likely drive interest rates lower throughout 2023. Market participants remain focused on the extent of interest rate hikes and the duration of a pause required to bring inflation back to the 2% target. With inflation remaining more persistent than previously expected forecasts around the timing, pace and extent of the removal of monetary policy have been pushed into 2024.

Credit – The uncertain economic outlook and risks around slower economic growth later this year merit caution about corporate bonds and a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we think the risk / reward dynamic are more favourable. That said, the “soft-landing” narrative, now more pervasive in the market, could continue to provide support to risk assets, which we view as an opportunity to further pare down higher beta exposure.

Equities – Given the direction of the current economic and company fundamental data, we continue to favour high quality growth segments of the market with strong operating margins. As such, the late cycle conditions in the market reinforce our preference for large cap stocks over smaller, more U.S. domestically focused businesses. The U.S. Low Volatility factor’s underperformance is unlikely to reverse in the short term given the resilience of the U.S. economy. Furthermore, after a steep decline last quarter, we expect that cyclical value will find support in the near term, echoing the increased chance of slowing inflation without stalling economic growth. In Canada, equities are typically more cyclical in nature, which coupled with the potential for an earnings contraction, makes us view the Low Volatility factor as more likely to outperform. Like the U.S., we prefer Canadian high-quality companies to navigate through the late cycle environment. On the heels of poor Chinese economic data and underwhelming stimulus, we are maintaining our overweight to the U.S. relative to Canada and EAFE.

Downloadable Copy

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
Posted July 27, 2023

EAMG Market Commentary April 2024 April 2024

Rates & Credit – Interest rates increased in Q1 2024, giving back half of the decline experienced in Q4 2023 amid consistently positive surprises in U.S. economic data. The positive economic news also drove a strong risk-on tone to the market, with the risk premium on corporate bonds tightening as economic prospects improved. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index (FTSE) with a slightly positive 0.07% return, verses a loss of 1.66% in government bonds and a loss of 1.22% for the overall index. More interest rate sensitive long-term bonds experienced the largest decline, which was partially offset in corporate bonds by the risk-on tone to corporate bond spreads. On a 6-month and 1-year basis, the FTSE remained positive at 6.94% and 2.10%, respectively. Within corporate bonds, lower-rated BBBs outperformed higher-rated A bonds, while industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications underperformed those with less exposure (notably financials and securitization).

Equity Overview – Throughout Q1 2024, concerns about a recession gradually eased as central bankers adopted a more accommodative outlook on monetary policy. Their growing dovishness reflected confidence that the restrictive monetary measures were effectively curbing inflation as anticipated. Underpinned by prospects of an economic soft-landing, global equity markets rallied to start the year with most major North American indices soaring to new all-time highs during the quarter. U.S. equities continued to outperform other major international markets with the S&P 500 returning 10.6% in USD terms. Major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) gained 10.1% in local currency terms, while the TSX added 6.6%. Furthermore, the U.S. economy continued to prove more resilient than most major developed economies, with strong employment and robust output data. As such, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities achieved enhanced returns, benefitting from a stronger Greenback.

U.S. Fundamentals – Corporate earnings beat expectations in Q4 2023, triggering a wave of upward earnings revision. Stable operating margins, cash flows and debt loads continue to attract investors into equities. Investors appear focused on the company’s ability to sustain debt levels ahead of renewing debt obligations. We observed that the number of major companies that expect improving financial performance shrunk to ~19%. This suggests that concentration risks are likely brewing in the equity market, yet again.

U.S. Quant Factors
Optimistic run-up in equity valuations were mostly driven by the momentum factor. A basket of companies with positive price trends intensified concentration risk in the equity market. We note that momentum factor’ performance sharply contrasted fundamental factors, making us cautious on the market’s complacency. For context, high quality companies, which is typically defined by high Return on Equity (ROE), stable earnings variability, and low financial leverage, placed second in our risk-adjusted performance rankings, and is dwarfed by the ~ 17.9% return observed from the momentum factor.

Canadian Fundamentals – Against the backdrop of underwhelming financial results, ROE – a gauge of how efficiently a corporation generates profits – rebounded in Q4, 2023, after declining throughout most of the year. The improved efficiency metric provided a positive catalyst for dividend investors as the inverse movements of ROE relative to financing costs over 2023 kept investors on the sidelines. In addition, the CRB Raw Industrials Index, a measure of price changes of basic commodities, broke out of recent ranges, providing a tailwind for Canada’s energy and materials sector. Concerns with earnings contraction and macro-economic conditions have subsided.

Canadian Quant Factors – Crude prices soared higher in Q1 2024, with ongoing production cuts from OPEC+ and ramifications of geopolitical conflicts keeping oil markets undersupplied. As such, energy companies benefitted, surging higher and outperforming the broader index, while the low volatility basket – with lower exposure to cyclically sensitive business – underperformed into quarter end. Furthermore, Canadian banks underperformed to start the quarter, giving back some of the sharp outperformance witnessed into the end of Q4 2023. That said, soft inflation data increased expectations of impending rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and, as such, banks performed in line with the broader market throughout most of the quarter. Underpinned by expectations of a dovish switch in monetary policy, investors rewarded dividend payers with a history of increasing dividends, boosting confidence in their ability to support future dividend growth. It is important to note that investors should not let dividend growth’s outperformance overshadow high dividend paying companies’ underperformance; more specifically, investors remain attentive to the businesses’ ability to create value relative to financing costs.

Views From the Frontline

Rates – Interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. increased across all bond tenors in Q1 2024. U.S. inflation data surprised to the upside, remaining stubbornly higher than hoped, while labour market and consumer indicators underscored the economy's continued strength. In Canada, inflation data fell below forecasts, but early 2024 GDP readings exceeded expectations. The market now anticipates a 'soft landing' for the U.S. economy; however, the Canadian economy continues to slow. North American central banks have signaled that we are at the peak for policy rates. The market is currently pricing in approximately two-to-three, 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in the second half of 2024, much fewer than the six-to-seven 25 basis point interest rate cuts that the market had been anticipating even just three months ago. As the Swiss central bank led the way with the first rate cut among developed countries, central banks in major developed economies will closely monitor upcoming data and market developments to determine the timing and pace for rate cuts.

Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) continued to tighten over the quarter, with a strong risk-on tone to the market as investors priced in renewed economic growth in 2024 as compared to previous expectations. Corporate bond supply was robust, with $38.2bn in new issuance, the second strongest first quarter on record. On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable.

Equity – We favour a combination of the Dow Jones and the S&P500 for our broad market exposure. The Dow, a price-weighted index, should have some value and low volatility tilt as it tracks mature large companies. As explained above, concentration risks are brewing in the equity market, and during Q1 this risk was exacerbated by investors rushing into a basket of companies with positive price trends, thereby pushing valuation metrics further into the expensive territory. In our view, it is well-suited to use a combination of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 for broad U.S. market exposure given the heightened concentration risk. Looking forward, we expect companies to exhibit stable operating margins and therefore, we are shifting our focus toward the balance between upcoming corporate debt refinancing requirements and reinvestment in projects intended to drive future growth. In plain words, we are tactically adding to companies with stable cash flows and decreased debt loads outside of the mega-cap group. In Canada, we expect a modest earnings growth and remain attentive to how efficiently a corporation generates profits relative to their financing cost. We caution against the overly optimistic, commodity driven, “catch-up” trade vs. our southern neighbour. Therefore, we tweaked our investment strategy by rotating out of the low volatility factor and adding to higher yielding quality companies in Canada.

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Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

GIA Coming to the Equitable FHSA Many clients have already taken advantage of Equitable’s First Home Savings Account (FHSA), available on Pivotal Select™ Investment Class (75/75) and Pivotal Select Estate Class (75/100).

And now, we’ve got some more great news. We’re working to expand the Equitable® FHSA to include our Guaranteed Interest Account (GIA). But clients don’t need to wait to start earning tax-free income in a FHSA.

If clients want to open a FHSA now but may be interested in an Equitable GIA, simply choose the No-Load Equitable Money Market Fund Select investment option while we work on including the GIA on FHSA. The current yield to maturity is 5.41% gross.¹

We will let you know when the GIA is available in FHSA in the coming months. Once it is available, advisors can speak to clients about the GIA options available in the FHSA and select what best suits their needs.

Don’t forget, clients who make a contribution to their FHSA, RRSP or TFSA between January 1 and February 29, 2024, could win $5,000 and you could win $1,000 in Equitable’s New Year’s Resolution, New Year’s Contribution Contest.²

For more information, please contact your Regional Investment Sales Manager.

1 As of January 16, 2024, 4.06% net after deducting the management expense ratio. Yield to Maturity: the market value weighted-average yield to maturity includes the coupon payments and any capital gain or loss that the investor will realize by holding the bonds to maturity.

2 Equitable’s New Year’s Resolution, New Year’s Contribution Contest: No purchase necessary. Contest period January 1, 2024, to February 29, 2024.  Enter by making a deposit to an Equitable FHSA, TFSA or RRSP during the contest period or by submitting a no-purchase entry. One prize for a total value of $5,000 CAD to be drawn on March 8, 2024, will be awarded. The servicing advisor for the policy to which the selected entrant made the deposit is also an eligible winner and will receive a $1,000 CAD prize. For example, if an Equitable client is a winner of the $5,000 prize, the client’s servicing advisor wins a $1,000 prize.  Open to legal residents of Canada of the age of majority. Odds of winning depend on number of eligible Entries received during the Contest Period.  For full contest rules, including no-purchase method of entry, see the full contest rules.
Posted January 17, 2024
Fiera Capital

Market Commentary July 2025 Key Takeaways

• Markets were very volatile in April to start Q2 but calmed as the quarter progressed. Volatility was driven mostly by headlines about tariffs, but other fiscal policy developments also had an impact.
• Equity markets sold off sharply at the start of the quarter, continuing Q1’s weakness. Markets rebounded sharply once worst-case fears over tariffs eased. The markets continued to rally through the quarter as trade negotiations progressed. Stronger-thanexpected corporate earnings also boosted markets. Despite the shaky start to the quarter, most global equity markets set new all-time highs in Q2.
• Canadian bond markets delivered slightly negative returns in Q2. Weak performance was driven by rising interest rates, which outweighed the impact of tighter credit spreads. Higher interest rates hurt the performance of longer-term bonds most.
• Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted a wait-and-see approach. They each held rates steady during Q2, awaiting greater clarity on the impacts of tariffs on both growth and inflation before considering further cuts.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: Most indicators of economic activity in the U.S. continued to expand at a decent pace. However, GDP data for the first quarter came in weaker than expected, as higher imports ahead of anticipated tariffs and weaker spending by consumers weighed on Q1 GDP. That said, GDP growth is expected to bounce back in Q2. Tariffs will likely continue to be an evolving story, with potential impacts on both economic growth and inflation. Those impacts will remain uncertain until trade agreements have been finalized.

Fig-One-(1).jpg

In early April, President Trump announced larger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs, with the impact most notable on trade with China. However, progress followed with a 90-day pause in tariff implementation. The U.S. then reached trade agreements with the UK, China, and Vietnam. Negotiations with other major trade partners are ongoing. The conflict between Israel and Iran raised inflation concerns, due mostly to the possibility of higher oil prices. Those concerns eased following a ceasefire. Congress passed Trump’s tax cut and spending bill, raising concerns about its potential impact on the U.S. fiscal burden. Meanwhile, U.S. labour market conditions remain resilient, with the unemployment rate remaining low. Inflation has eased slightly but remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. Amid heightened uncertainty, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% at both of its meetings in Q2. Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

In Canada, tariffs and trade-related uncertainty continue to weigh on the economy. A pullforward of exports and inventory accumulation ahead of tariffs helped keep first-quarter GDP firm, but growth is expected to slow in the second quarter. The labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors. Inflation remains within the Bank of Canada’s 1–3% preferred range. However, core CPI remains above the Bank’s preferred 2% target. Canada’s fiscal deficit is expected to widen as Prime Minister Mark Carney aims to fast-track infrastructure development and increase defense spending. Amid ongoing trade uncertainty, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75% during its April and June meetings. Governor Tiff Macklem signaled the Bank’s readiness to cut rates further if economic conditions deteriorate.

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Bond Markets: During Q2, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned -0.6%. Yields for Canadian bonds rose across all maturities over the quarter. That reflected reduced expectations for rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and a higher risk premium on long-term debt. The impact of higher yields on government bonds was offset in part by tightening of credit spreads on provincial and corporate bonds. Overall corporate bonds saw a positive return for the quarter and outperformed government bonds, in part due to the strong recovery in credit spreads that started in late
April. While corporate issuance slowed considerably in April due to increased trade policy uncertainty, issuance in the Canadian bond markets during May and June were robust. There were 83 deals during Q2 that combined to raise $37 billion for issuers. June 2025 was the 3rd busiest month for issuance on record. We continue to expect higher credit spreads as the U.S. tariffs impact global growth. As such, we have maintained our conservative view with a bias towards shorter corporate bonds but remain ready to invest in longer corporate bonds as valuations become
attractive.

Stock Markets – Overview: Having done a round-trip following April tariff announcements, technology, consumer discretionary and industrial companies propelled the U.S. equity market to another record high. The S&P 500 ended the quarter up about 11%, outperforming Canadian and international markets. Canadian equities gained 8.5% in Q2, buoyed by front-loaded demand that benefited the Materials sector, while Financials recovered from a poor Q1. Meanwhile, as risk sentiment stabilized following the 90-day tariff pause and U.S. equities regained momentum, the appeal of the “Sell America” trade diminished. As a result, Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) markets finished the quarter with a more modest gain of just over 5%, lagging the sharper
recovery seen in North America.

Fig-Four-(1).jpg

U.S. Equities: The U.S. equity market staged a V-shaped recovery on strong company earnings data in the second quarter. A stable job market and muted inflation reinforced the view of a resilient U.S. economy. At a company level, we observed positive corporate earnings surprises, steady profit margins and better-than-expected forward earnings guidance. Together they underpinned the equity market’s sharp reversal to the upside. Market breadth also improved over the quarter, with strength extending beyond Technology to include Industrials and Financials. That signalled that the market rally was supported by investors’ confidence in the U.S. economy. Furthermore, structural investment trends in artificial intelligence (AI) continued to accelerate, highlighted by rising enterprise capex in data centres. Beyond AI, Circle, a blockchain-based platform that supports stablecoin issuance, tokenized assets, and digital payment infrastructure, conducted a successful IPO. Its share price jumped 485% from its listing price as of quarter-end. On June 17, the U.S. Senate passed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, a regulatory framework for use of tokenized assets. While investors wait for the House’s decision, equity price actions suggest that the policy environment is increasingly supportive of blockchain innovation and digital efficiency.

Canadian Equities: Canadian equities posted solid gains in Q2, with Financials overtaking Materials to lead the market higher. Momentum from the Materials sector, which benefited from the pull-forward demand related to U.S. tariff uncertainty, faded toward quarter-end. Meanwhile, cooling inflation and muted domestic growth pushed investors towards highquality, high-dividend-paying companies. Notably, banks significantly outperformed the broader market, as investors favoured their stable corporate fundamentals. Energy surged briefly amid escalating geopolitical tensions, but those gains proved short-lived. In recap, investors in the Canadian market faced slowing resource demand and a stalling domestic economy, which fueled increased interest in high-quality, high-dividend-paying companies. That is a trend we expect to continue going forward.

Bottom line: Markets remain heavily influenced by sentiment, with U.S. policy developments and ongoing tariff negotiations continuing to cause periodic volatility. However, there is little
evidence of deterioration in the hard data to date. As such, we continue to anchor our positioning on underlying data rather than market narratives. Looking ahead, the combination of a structurally higher-for-longer interest rate environment and increasingly pro-growth policy backdrop presents selective opportunities. In the U.S., this favours highquality growth stocks, particularly within Technology, where strong balance sheets and long-term thematic tailwinds remain intact. In Canada, Financials, especially the relatively inexpensive banks, present a more compelling opportunity as earlier tailwinds from pullforward demand are beginning to wane. While we remain constructive, we are mindful of elevated equity valuations and continue to closely monitor macro conditions and policy developments for signs of inflection.

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Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Investments	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Investments	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Public Investments	Jin Li Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM Sr. Quantitative Analyst	Andrew Vermeer, CFA Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Edward Ng Cheng Hi Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Investments	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Investments	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Public Investments	Jin Li Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM Sr. Quantitative Analyst	Andrew Vermeer, CFA Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Edward Ng Cheng Hi Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

Market Commentary January 2026

Key Takeaways

Full year 2025:
• Government policy was very impactful for markets in 2025. U.S. trade policy unsettled markets in the first half of the year, as the U.S. implemented significant tariffs and engaged in tough negotiations with major trading partners. However, by mid-year, fiscal policy provided positive support for markets, particularly with the passing in the U.S. of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July.
• Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) continued to attract investment, particularly in the United States. This investment provided strong support for equity market performance.
• Global equity markets delivered strong performance, most notably Canadian equities, which returned an impressive 31.7%.
• Positive risk appetite supported solid corporate bond performance, which outpaced government bonds.

Fourth Quarter:
• U.S. equities advanced at a slower pace in the fourth quarter after a strong surge in the prior two quarters. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities, fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors.
• Canadian bond markets posted slightly negative returns during the quarter as higher interest rates weighed on performance. Strong corporate bond performance partially offset weakness in government bonds.
• Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered policy interest rates during the quarter, with Canada dropping its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and the U.S. dropping its policy rate by 50 basis points. Both central banks signalled a cautious approach for further easing.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: The U.S. economy continued to expand at a moderate pace, supported by strong consumer spending and AI investment. However, job growth slowed and the unemployment rate has edged higher. Inflation remains higher than the 2% target, despite easing trends. While some U.S. trading partners have made trade agreements, uncertainty remains regarding reciprocal tariffs, with a case before the U.S. Supreme Court as to their legality. The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate twice during the quarter, first in October and again in December, to reach a target rate of 3.50% to 3.75%. Chair Powell cited downside risks to employment as a key factor behind the rate cut decisions and emphasized that officials are “well positioned” to wait and assess how the economy evolves.

In Canada, U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber have weighed heavily on these sectors. While most goods continue to enter the U.S. tariff-free due to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (“CUSMA”), broader uncertainty around U.S. trade policy is dampening business investment. Third quarter GDP growth exceeded market expectations, but growth tracked weaker in the fourth quarter amid the trade disputes. The labour market showed signs of improvement in the fourth quarter after earlier weakness. Headline inflation has hovered near the 2% target, while core inflation remained persistent. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in October and made no changes in December. Going into 2026, trade uncertainty remains with the CUSMA up for renegotiation. The Bank of Canada reiterated its readiness to respond if new shocks or accumulating evidence materially alter the outlook.

Bond Markets: During the quarter, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned -0.3% as interest rates on Canadian bonds rose (bond prices fall as interest rates go up). The increase reflected reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and a higher risk premium demanded by investors for long-term debt. Although interest rates increased, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to move lower. These lower credit spreads resulted in positive overall returns for corporate bonds in the quarter, despite the overall bond market recording a loss. Tightening credit spreads reflected the continued risk-on tone to the market. Despite some volatility, lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now rallied back to the tightest spreads since the 2008 financial crisis, nearing the tightest spreads in history. Despite expensive levels, investors remain buyers of corporate bonds, evidenced not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to set new records, with an impressive $37.5 billion in new issuance in the fourth quarter helping 2025 to exceed the prior year’s issuance. All told, 2025 saw an impressive $160 billion in new issuance via 358 new bonds, versus 2024’s prior record of $139 billion from 301 new bonds.

Stock Markets: The fourth quarter marked a pivotal shift in the global equity market rally of 2025. After three quarters of a highly concentrated, tech-led rally in the U.S., cyclical and valueoriented sectors outperformed in Q4. The S&P 500 advanced at a slower 2.7% in the fourth quarter, reflecting a market that is recalibrating after an extended period of concentrated gains. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities as the S&P/TSX Composite returned 6.3% in the quarter, finishing the year with an impressive 31.7% return. That was its strongest annual gain since 2009. The strong returns in Canadian equities were fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials sector, supported by soaring gold and base metal prices, and reinforced by the resilience of the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors. Internationally, developed markets in Europe and Asia gained 6.2% for the quarter, bringing their annual return to 21.2%. This move signals a healthy rebalancing as global investors rotated into attractivelyvalued international equities to hedge against elevated U.S. valuations. Capital is now flowing toward regions and sectors offering stronger earnings visibility and defensive characteristics rather than purely speculative growth.

U.S. Equities: U.S. equities entered the fourth quarter at elevated valuations. Despite fundamentally strong earnings growth, stock prices struggled to move higher because investor expectations were for even stronger growth. Technology remained the primary driver of earnings, but the sector faced intense pressure to prove its value. Specifically, investors questioned the pace at which companies could convert AI investments into actual revenue. Investors also worried that growth remained concentrated among too few companies rather than more broadly across the economy. Sector-wise, Communication Services emerged as the top performer for the full year due to significant margin expansion. This was driven by a wave of media-related merger activity and the successful use of AI to make digital advertising more efficient. Industrials also advanced as new tax incentives for domestic manufacturing boosted factory orders. Nevertheless, the market remains concentrated with the top ten stocks representing nearly 40% of the S&P 500 Index. This level of concentration makes the market vulnerable to sudden price swings. As inflation moderated and the Federal Reserve cut rates in December, investors shifted toward more defensive sectors and international equities. This rotation signals a preference for companies with stable cash flows over speculative growth.

Canadian Equities: The Canadian market was a global standout during the quarter, supported by lower borrowing costs, a stable Financials sector, and rally in the prices of metals (including gold, but also base metals like nickel and copper). The Materials sector led the way as a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions pushed gold to a record of US$4,550 per ounce in late December. For major mining companies, these prices generated record cash flow allowing them to raise dividends and buy back shares. The Bank of Canada interest rate cut supported both the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors, reducing borrowing costs, and helping banks maintain stable net interest margins. The Big Six Canadian Banks delivered strong earnings results in Q4. These were driven by a surge in capital markets activity and better-than-expected provisions for credit losses, as the economy remained resilient. Trading at 17 times forward earnings, the Canadian market appears attractively valued, prompting investors to shift away from U.S. volatility toward more tangible assets and reliable dividends.

Bottom line: The final quarter of 2025 saw a notable shift in investor positioning. As recession fears receded, attention turned to navigating a period of moderate economic expansion. In Canada, capital flowed into profitable, cash flow-generating companies in the Financials and Material sectors. Momentum in U.S. equities slowed as investors reduced risk amid caution around AI developments. Although major indices remain highly valued, opportunities persist in sectors and regions with stable cash flows and pricing power.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Investments	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Investments	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Public Investments	Jin Li Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM Sr. Quantitative Analyst	Andrew Vermeer, CFA Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Edward Ng Cheng Hin Analyst, Credit	Kate (Huyen) Vinh Analyst, Equity	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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