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5. EAMG Market Commentary October 2023

    

   October 20, 2023
   
   Rates & Credit - Interest rates increased steadily in Q3 against the backdrop of sticky inflation, strong economic growth, and a tight labour market. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index during the quarter, with a loss of 2.2%, versus a loss of 4.4% for government bonds and a loss of 3.9% for the overall index. The outperformance was primarily driven by the fact that the corporate bond index is less sensitive to interest rates movements (as compared to the government index), all else being equal. The outperformance was also driven by an improvement in risk-appetite, with lower-rated BBBs slightly outperforming higher-rated A bonds. Industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications underperformed those with less (notably financials and securitization), consistent with the overall shift in the yield curve.
   
   Equities Lose Traction – Global equity markets lost momentum last quarter with the TSX declining 2.2% while major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) fell 1.3% in local currency terms. U.S. equity markets, while falling approximately 3.3%, were cushioned by a strong greenback, with the index declining only 1% in Canadian dollar terms. With inflation prints continuing to be stubbornly high and employment data remaining strong, central bankers emphasized their commitment to a higher-for-longer approach to monetary policy. The hawkish tones out of the Federal Reserve pushed bond yields higher and consequently, pressured equities lower. Furthermore, mixed economic data out of China rattled investor sentiment over the quarter as global growth forecasts came under scrutiny.
   
   U.S. Fundamentals – Although U.S. earnings continue to contract on a year-over-year basis, companies surpassed expectations with investors remaining highly focused on signs of deteriorating operating margins. After bouncing off Q1 2022 lows, forward earnings guidance continues to improve on a quarterly basis. Based on our analysis, ~35% of major companies revised earnings forecasts higher (+2% versus Q2) while ~33% held expectations constant, with the balance expecting deteriorating financial performance. Overall, improved efficiencies through cost-cutting measures and stronger-than-expected pricing power have contributed to resilience in operating margins, and therefore renewed optimism about forecasted financial performance.
   
   Equal Weight S&P 500 versus S&P 500 – Persistent crowding into mega-cap technology stocks – which has driven the majority of market returns year-to-date in the U.S. – slowed at the beginning of the summer before reaccelerating into quarter end. The persistence of this trend has resulted in the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 index returning a mere 1.8% over the first three quarters of the year, markedly lower than the 13.1% return observed from the S&P 500. We continue to emphasize that a crowded market surge is not uncommon during late stages of the economic cycle, and we remain focused on delivering optimal risk-adjusted returns with quantitative factors.
   
   U.S. Quant Factors – The quality-growth areas of the market continued to outperform last quarter with market participants seeking large cash-rich companies with innovative product offerings and stable operating margins. That said, the pricing power of these companies has weakened more recently with consumers having depleted pandemic-era savings and stimulus. As such, fundamentals are beginning to appear overvalued. Low volatility stocks (i.e. stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement and lower price volatility) performed in-line with the overall market for most of the summer before underperforming into quarter-end when crowding into big-tech returned. While top-line projections are forecasted to post stable growth, the basket’s relatively lower operating margins remain a headwind amid surging interest rates. Dividend growth companies, which include businesses with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, performed approximately in-line with the broader index over the quarter. With the market forecasting overly-negative fundamental performance, this factor is positioned as a contrarian opportunity in the market.
   
   Canadian Fundamentals – Unlike those in the U.S., Canadian companies reported shrinking operating margins in general, pressuring equity pricing. Like in the U.S., Canadian corporate earnings were mostly consistent with expectations but continue to contract on a year-over-year basis. The energy sector benefitted from a ~30% increase in oil prices during the quarter, as OPEC’s restrictive oil production schedule pushed crude markets deeper into under-supplied territory. Those higher energy prices buoyed performance of stocks in the energy sector, one of only two sectors with positive performance during the quarter, helping partially offset softer-than-expected results out of the financials and communications sectors. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada continued with its hawkish monetary policy by raising its overnight interest rate by another 25 basis points, bringing it to 5%. Their efforts to slow economic growth are beginning to cause some deterioration in fundamentals and, with one quarter remaining, analysts are expecting Canadian earnings to contract ~9% for the year.
   
   Canadian Quant Factors – With central banks around the world continuing to hike interest rates and uncertainty surrounding China’s economic health, global growth prospects fluttered over the quarter. The cyclical nature of the Canadian market, and therefore its reliance on global partners, saw equity prices put under pressure by growth concerns. As a result, the quality bucket benefitted from defensive positioning by investors and thus resumed its climb in Canada. Investors continue to prefer mature, large businesses that are better positioned in a restrictive economic environment due to their more stable operating margins. The value factor – which was beaten down in Q2 – rebounded last quarter with supply-driven energy strength helping to propel energy stocks higher. Low volatility initially displayed similar performance to the TSX, but energy’s rapid surge into the end of summer pressured the group lower. Given higher risk-free rates, the dividend factor also underperformed over the quarter, with dividend yields becoming less attractive on risk adjusted basis.

   
   Views From the Frontline
   
   Rates – Both nominal and real – rose sharply in Q3 to levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. A healthy labour market, strong consumer spending, persistent inflation and excess supply concerns drove the interest rate increase. Although the economy is starting to witness a deceleration in consumer spending and tighter credit conditions, central banks remain committed to maintaining a higher policy rate for longer to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
   
   Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) has been range-
   bound over the past quarter as investors’ evaluations of a variety of scenarios have evolved: soft-landing versus a recession, geopolitical uncertainty, further central bank increases, among other things.  On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, and as such, we remain cautious on corporate bonds and have a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable. 
   
   Equities – Geographically, we began the quarter with a preference for U.S. equities relative to Canada and EAFE. In-line with our expectations, U.S. stocks outperformed the two regions in Canadian dollar terms. That said, weakness in the Euro versus the Canadian dollar was a headwind for our EAFE exposure. With earnings yield – which is the percentage of earnings relative to price – becoming less attractive compared to risk-free rates in the U.S., and the greenback strength becoming overstretched from a technical perspective, we have pared back our overweight U.S. position. Moreover, with Chinese officials focusing efforts on the introduction of new stimulus packages, we believe that more cyclical markets like Canada and EAFE will retrace some of their losses in the near term. Within the U.S., we entered Q3 with a constructive view on high quality growth segments of the market that provide strong operating margins during the current late economic cycle conditions. The factor moved in-line with our expectations, as highlighted in the “U.S. Quant Factor” section, and we are tactically decreasing our exposure amid stretched fundamentals. In Canada, we continue to prefer high-quality companies due to their strong fundamentals, with the group currently displaying momentum versus the broader TSX. Tactically, we are participating in the oil supply shock through the value factor.

   
   Downloadable Copy

    

   Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
   Mohamed Bouhadi, CFA Senior Analyst, Rates	Tyler Farrow Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit

    
    
   ADVISOR USE ONLY
    
   Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
   
   Posted November 3, 2023
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8. 100 years strong

   As COVID-19 continues, we want to reassure you that Equitable Life remains financially strong and committed to supporting our clients.

   We are financially strong and stable

   Our commitment to your health, wealth and overall well-being remains unchanged. This global pandemic has impacted the way we do business, but we continue to focus on our strategic goals while meeting the needs of Canadians. These three factors speak to our financial strength and stability:
   
   • Equitable Life has a global credit rating of ‘A’ with a positive trend from DBRS Morningstar in recognition of our ability to adapt to the current business environment and prudent risk profile;
   • We are maintaining our current dividend scale for the period July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021; and
   • Our Life Insurance Capital Adequacy Test (LICAT) ratio remains well above our goal and the minimum that is required at 152.5% at the close of the first quarter.We pride ourselves on our customer service
   
   Being recognized for its service culture across all lines of business is a point of pride for a company that includes ‘customer focus’ as one of its three corporate values. In 2019, our dedication to customer service was recognized with these outstanding survey results, proving we have the We have the knowledge, experience and ability to find solutions that work for you:
   • Equitable Life ranked in the top quartile for segregated fund service in 2019 survey of advisors and MGAs¹ ;
   • In a 2019 survey of customers from 15 life insurance companies,² Equitable Life ranked #1 on the Net Promoter Score, a measure used across industries to gauge the loyalty of a firm's customer relationships; and
   • A survey of Group consultants, brokers and third-party administrators ³ ranked Equitable Life in the top two insurers across all categories.

   We have adjusted our business to become digital

   Since the pandemic began, our IT and operations teams have digitally enhanced more than 20 different processes and services to make it easier for us to integrate with our distribution partners in this new reality. Our sales and customer service teams remain open and available to support you and your customers.

   
   We are here with you and for you

   • To commemorate our 100^th Anniversary this year, we donated $4.5 million to purchase and install a new MRI for Grand River Hospital and, as part of our Equitable Gives Back Contest, we donated $50,000 –  $10,000 each – to five charities in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. As well, we are celebrating by randomly selecting policyholders to receive a $100 and three grand prizes. For more information about our celebrations, check out our website at www.equitable100.ca.
     
     As the global situation continues to evolve, rest assured that Equitable Life is unwavering in our commitments to you and the communities we serve. We are here with you and for you.
   ¹ Life Ops Consulting Group Distribution Service Satisfaction Surveys 2015-2019, Independent Advisors
   ²  LIMRA CxP Customer Experience Benchmarking Program, Life Insurance In-Force Experience 2019
   ³ NMG Consulting’s Canadian Group Benefits Survey 2019
    
9. Important notice: Funds with Deferred Sales Charges The Canadian Council of Insurance Regulators (CCIR) is requiring all insurance companies to discontinue the sale of segregated funds with deferred sales charges (DSC) effective June 1, 2023. This also impacts ongoing or new deposits to some existing segregated fund accounts. Please contact any Equitable Life clients who may be impacted.
    
   How this impacts clients:
   In response to the insurance regulator’s recommendation, Equitable Life^® will be making changes to the administration of certain segregated fund products, which may impact clients. The details are outlined below:
    
   Pivotal Select™ segregated fund product
   On or about May 29, 2023:
   • Funds with DSC or Low Load (LL) sales charge options will be closed to additional deposits. Future deposits must be allocated to the No Load (NL) sales charge option of the funds available within the policy.
   • Any existing amounts held in DSC or LL funds are not impacted and will retain the existing deferred sales charge schedule outlined in a client’s contract. The annual 10% available (20% for RIF policies) for withdrawal without fees continues to apply through to the expiry of the fee schedule.
   • If the default deposit instructions that a client previously provided include funds with DSC or LL sales charge options, these instructions will be automatically updated to the NL sales charge option of the same fund for all future deposits.
   • If a client has pre-authorized scheduled deposits into funds with the DSC or LL sales charge options, these instructions will be automatically updated to the NL sales charge option of the same funds for all future deposits.
   • In alignment with our current administrative rules, if a client has DSC or LL funds, they will not be able to make deposits into No Load Chargeback funds (NLCB and NLCB5) within the same policy.
    
   Legacy segregated fund products
   Ongoing deposits to DSC funds are permitted when a segregated fund product does not have an alternative sales charge option available within the contract. This applies to the following products:
   • Personal Investment Portfolio
   • Pivotal Solutions II
   • Pivotal Solutions DSC
   As a result, clients who own these types of products may continue to make new deposits to the DSC funds within their policy. Any new segregated fund deposits, as well as any existing segregated fund amounts within their policy will retain the deferred sales charge schedule outlined in their contract.
   
   If a client plans on making additional deposits, they may be interested in alternative sales charge options that do not include DSC. For example, Equitable Life offers “No Load” (NL) and “No Load Chargeback” (NLCB and NLCB5) sales charge options within the Pivotal Select segregated fund contract. In these situations, a new application would need to be completed and submitted.
   
   Please note that draft regulation in Quebec is currently under review which may impact Equitable Life’s approach for Quebec clients with legacy segregated fund products.
   
   Equitable Life will continue to monitor provincial regulatory developments and adjust our approach as needed.
    
   Client communication
   We will be sending clients a letter within their December 31, 2022, statement describing their options, and the impacts to their policy (if applicable). We recommend that you contact clients to discuss the contents of Equitable Life’s letter and provide any advice that they may need regarding ongoing deposits to their segregated funds. You can access a copy of the client letter here:
   • Pivotal Select letter
   • Legacy letter

    If you have any questions, please reach out to our Advisor Services Team at 1.866.884.7427.
   
   December 23, 2022
   
   ™ or ® denote registered trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.

10. Our service standards - Individual insurance