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EAMG Market Commentary October 2023

October 20, 2023

Rates & Credit - Interest rates increased steadily in Q3 against the backdrop of sticky inflation, strong economic growth, and a tight labour market. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index during the quarter, with a loss of 2.2%, versus a loss of 4.4% for government bonds and a loss of 3.9% for the overall index. The outperformance was primarily driven by the fact that the corporate bond index is less sensitive to interest rates movements (as compared to the government index), all else being equal. The outperformance was also driven by an improvement in risk-appetite, with lower-rated BBBs slightly outperforming higher-rated A bonds. Industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications underperformed those with less (notably financials and securitization), consistent with the overall shift in the yield curve.

Equities Lose Traction – Global equity markets lost momentum last quarter with the TSX declining 2.2% while major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) fell 1.3% in local currency terms. U.S. equity markets, while falling approximately 3.3%, were cushioned by a strong greenback, with the index declining only 1% in Canadian dollar terms. With inflation prints continuing to be stubbornly high and employment data remaining strong, central bankers emphasized their commitment to a higher-for-longer approach to monetary policy. The hawkish tones out of the Federal Reserve pushed bond yields higher and consequently, pressured equities lower. Furthermore, mixed economic data out of China rattled investor sentiment over the quarter as global growth forecasts came under scrutiny.

U.S. Fundamentals – Although U.S. earnings continue to contract on a year-over-year basis, companies surpassed expectations with investors remaining highly focused on signs of deteriorating operating margins. After bouncing off Q1 2022 lows, forward earnings guidance continues to improve on a quarterly basis. Based on our analysis, ~35% of major companies revised earnings forecasts higher (+2% versus Q2) while ~33% held expectations constant, with the balance expecting deteriorating financial performance. Overall, improved efficiencies through cost-cutting measures and stronger-than-expected pricing power have contributed to resilience in operating margins, and therefore renewed optimism about forecasted financial performance.

Equal Weight S&P 500 versus S&P 500 – Persistent crowding into mega-cap technology stocks – which has driven the majority of market returns year-to-date in the U.S. – slowed at the beginning of the summer before reaccelerating into quarter end. The persistence of this trend has resulted in the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 index returning a mere 1.8% over the first three quarters of the year, markedly lower than the 13.1% return observed from the S&P 500. We continue to emphasize that a crowded market surge is not uncommon during late stages of the economic cycle, and we remain focused on delivering optimal risk-adjusted returns with quantitative factors.

U.S. Quant Factors – The quality-growth areas of the market continued to outperform last quarter with market participants seeking large cash-rich companies with innovative product offerings and stable operating margins. That said, the pricing power of these companies has weakened more recently with consumers having depleted pandemic-era savings and stimulus. As such, fundamentals are beginning to appear overvalued. Low volatility stocks (i.e. stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement and lower price volatility) performed in-line with the overall market for most of the summer before underperforming into quarter-end when crowding into big-tech returned. While top-line projections are forecasted to post stable growth, the basket’s relatively lower operating margins remain a headwind amid surging interest rates. Dividend growth companies, which include businesses with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, performed approximately in-line with the broader index over the quarter. With the market forecasting overly-negative fundamental performance, this factor is positioned as a contrarian opportunity in the market.

Canadian Fundamentals – Unlike those in the U.S., Canadian companies reported shrinking operating margins in general, pressuring equity pricing. Like in the U.S., Canadian corporate earnings were mostly consistent with expectations but continue to contract on a year-over-year basis. The energy sector benefitted from a ~30% increase in oil prices during the quarter, as OPEC’s restrictive oil production schedule pushed crude markets deeper into under-supplied territory. Those higher energy prices buoyed performance of stocks in the energy sector, one of only two sectors with positive performance during the quarter, helping partially offset softer-than-expected results out of the financials and communications sectors. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada continued with its hawkish monetary policy by raising its overnight interest rate by another 25 basis points, bringing it to 5%. Their efforts to slow economic growth are beginning to cause some deterioration in fundamentals and, with one quarter remaining, analysts are expecting Canadian earnings to contract ~9% for the year.

Canadian Quant Factors – With central banks around the world continuing to hike interest rates and uncertainty surrounding China’s economic health, global growth prospects fluttered over the quarter. The cyclical nature of the Canadian market, and therefore its reliance on global partners, saw equity prices put under pressure by growth concerns. As a result, the quality bucket benefitted from defensive positioning by investors and thus resumed its climb in Canada. Investors continue to prefer mature, large businesses that are better positioned in a restrictive economic environment due to their more stable operating margins. The value factor – which was beaten down in Q2 – rebounded last quarter with supply-driven energy strength helping to propel energy stocks higher. Low volatility initially displayed similar performance to the TSX, but energy’s rapid surge into the end of summer pressured the group lower. Given higher risk-free rates, the dividend factor also underperformed over the quarter, with dividend yields becoming less attractive on risk adjusted basis.

Views From the Frontline

Rates – Both nominal and real – rose sharply in Q3 to levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. A healthy labour market, strong consumer spending, persistent inflation and excess supply concerns drove the interest rate increase. Although the economy is starting to witness a deceleration in consumer spending and tighter credit conditions, central banks remain committed to maintaining a higher policy rate for longer to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) has been range-
bound over the past quarter as investors’ evaluations of a variety of scenarios have evolved: soft-landing versus a recession, geopolitical uncertainty, further central bank increases, among other things. On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, and as such, we remain cautious on corporate bonds and have a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable.

Equities – Geographically, we began the quarter with a preference for U.S. equities relative to Canada and EAFE. In-line with our expectations, U.S. stocks outperformed the two regions in Canadian dollar terms. That said, weakness in the Euro versus the Canadian dollar was a headwind for our EAFE exposure. With earnings yield – which is the percentage of earnings relative to price – becoming less attractive compared to risk-free rates in the U.S., and the greenback strength becoming overstretched from a technical perspective, we have pared back our overweight U.S. position. Moreover, with Chinese officials focusing efforts on the introduction of new stimulus packages, we believe that more cyclical markets like Canada and EAFE will retrace some of their losses in the near term. Within the U.S., we entered Q3 with a constructive view on high quality growth segments of the market that provide strong operating margins during the current late economic cycle conditions. The factor moved in-line with our expectations, as highlighted in the “U.S. Quant Factor” section, and we are tactically decreasing our exposure amid stretched fundamentals. In Canada, we continue to prefer high-quality companies due to their strong fundamentals, with the group currently displaying momentum versus the broader TSX. Tactically, we are participating in the oil supply shock through the value factor.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Mohamed Bouhadi, CFA Senior Analyst, Rates	Tyler Farrow Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

Posted November 3, 2023

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Responding to Alberta's Biosimilar Initiative

Beginning March 15, 2021, we are changing coverage for some biologic drugs in Alberta in response to the province’s Biosimilar Initiative. These changes will help protect your clients from additional drug costs that may result from this new government policy while still providing access to equally safe and effective biosimilars.

What is Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative?

Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative will end provincial coverage of several originator biologic drugs for some or all conditions beginning on Jan. 15, 2021. Patients 18 and over who are using these drugs for the affected conditions will be required to switch to biosimilar versions of the drugs to maintain coverage under the province’s government drug plan.

What is the impact on private drug plans?

Industry response to Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative has the potential to significantly impact your clients’ drug plan costs. If other insurance carriers follow suit with the province and delist the originator biologics, it could expose a plan that doesn’t delist them to significant coordination of benefits risk. (See Case Study below.)

How is Equitable Life responding?

To protect your clients’ plans from paying additional and avoidable drug costs, we are changing coverage in Alberta for most biologic drugs included in the provincial initiative.

As of March 15, 2021, several originator biologic drugs will no longer be covered for plan members of all ages in Alberta. Plan members taking these biologics will be required to switch to the biosimilar versions of these drugs to maintain eligibility under their Equitable Life plan.

What drugs and conditions are affected?

The following table outlines the drugs and conditions that will be affected by this change. The list of affected drugs or conditions is dynamic and will change as Alberta includes more biologic drugs in its Biosimilar Initiative, as new biosimilars come onto the market, and as we make changes in drug eligibility.

Drug name	Originator biologic These drugs will no longer be covered in Alberta for the conditions listed in this table.	Biosimilar Plan members will need to switch to these medications to maintain coverage under their Equitable Life plan.	Affected health conditions The changes in coverage apply to these conditions.
Etanercept	Enbrel	Brenzys Erelzi	Ankylosing Spondylitis Rheumatoid Arthritis Polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) Psoriatic Arthritis Plaque Psoriasis (adults and children)
Infliximab	Remicade	Inflectra Renflexis Avsola	Ankylosing Spondylitis Plaque Psoriasis Psoriatic Arthritis Rheumatoid Arthritis Crohn's Disease (adults and children) Ulcerative Colitis (adults and children)
Insulin glargine	Lantus	Basaglar	Diabetes (Type 1 and 2)
Filgrastim	Neupogen	Grastofil Nivestym	Neutropenia
Pegfilgrastim	Neulasta	Lapelga Fulphila Ziextenzo	Neutropenia
Glatiramer*	Copaxone	Glatect TEVA-Glatiramer Acetate	Multiple Sclerosis

*Glatiramer is a non-biologic complex drug.

How will Equitable Life communicate this change to plan members?

We will be communicating with affected claimants in January 2021 to allow them ample time to change their prescriptions and avoid any interruptions in their treatment or their coverage.

Can my client maintain coverage of these biologic drugs?

Traditional groups who wish to opt out of this change and maintain coverage of these originator biologics for Alberta plan members can submit a policy amendment. Amendments must be submitted no later than January 15, 2021. Advisors with myFlex Benefits clients who wish to maintain coverage of these originator biologics for Alberta plan members should speak to their myFlex Sales Manager to confirm their eligibility to opt out of this change.

Will this change impact my clients’ rates?

The rate impact of this change in coverage will be relatively insignificant. Any cost savings associated with the change will be factored in at renewal.

If plan sponsors opt out of these changes and maintain coverage for the originator biologics, it may result in a rate increase. Any rate adjustment will be applied at renewal.

What is the difference between biologics and biosimilars?

Biologics are drugs that are engineered using living organisms like yeast and bacteria. The first version of a biologic developed is also known as the “originator” biologic. Biosimilars are also biologics. They are highly similar to the originator drug they are based on and have been shown to have no clinically meaningful differences in safety or efficacy.

Questions?

If you have any questions about this change, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.

CASE STUDY: The Alberta Biosimilar Initiative and Coordination of Benefits (CoB) risk

CoB risk is real and can be significant, even if a pharmaceutical savings program exists.

The industry response to Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative has the potential to significantly impact your clients’ drug plan costs. Some insurers may follow the province’s lead and delist these originator biologics. Others may cut back coverage to the cost of the biosimilars or maintain coverage of the originators. These differences could expose a plan that doesn’t delist the originator biologics to significant coordination of benefits risk. Here’s how:

Let’s assume there are two private drug plans – Plan A and Plan B. Both plans are open plans with no deductible. Plan A has 80% co-insurance and Plan B has 100% co-insurance.

BEFORE Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative

Before Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative, both plans cover the originator biologics listed above.

Plan A is the first private payer for an Alberta plan member taking an originator biologic drug for Rheumatoid Arthritis. Plan B is the second private payer. The cost of the originator biologic for the plan member is $30,000 annually. Here’s how the coordination of benefits would look before Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative.

AFTER Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative

In response to Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative, the insurer for Plan A delists the originator biologic and requires plan members to switch to the biosimilar. The insurer for Plan B maintains coverage of the originator biologic. Under this scenario, if the plan member doesn’t switch, Plan B essentially becomes the first payer and sees their annual cost increase by 400% (from $6,000 to $30,000).

Even if the insurer for Plan B cuts back coverage to the cost of the biosimilar or adjusts the paid amount because they have a savings program in place with the drug manufacturer, the impact could be significant. For example, if the insurer cuts back coverage to 50% (or $15,000 annually), Plan B would see a 150% annual cost increase (from $6,000 to $15,000):

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100 years strong
As COVID-19 continues, we want to reassure you that Equitable Life remains financially strong and committed to supporting our clients.

We are financially strong and stable
Our commitment to your health, wealth and overall well-being remains unchanged. This global pandemic has impacted the way we do business, but we continue to focus on our strategic goals while meeting the needs of Canadians. These three factors speak to our financial strength and stability:

• Equitable Life has a global credit rating of ‘A’ with a positive trend from DBRS Morningstar in recognition of our ability to adapt to the current business environment and prudent risk profile;
• We are maintaining our current dividend scale for the period July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021; and
• Our Life Insurance Capital Adequacy Test (LICAT) ratio remains well above our goal and the minimum that is required at 152.5% at the close of the first quarter.We pride ourselves on our customer service

Being recognized for its service culture across all lines of business is a point of pride for a company that includes ‘customer focus’ as one of its three corporate values. In 2019, our dedication to customer service was recognized with these outstanding survey results, proving we have the We have the knowledge, experience and ability to find solutions that work for you:
- Equitable Life ranked in the top quartile for segregated fund service in 2019 survey of advisors and MGAs¹;
- In a 2019 survey of customers from 15 life insurance companies,² Equitable Life ranked #1 on the Net Promoter Score, a measure used across industries to gauge the loyalty of a firm's customer relationships; and
- A survey of Group consultants, brokers and third-party administrators³ ranked Equitable Life in the top two insurers across all categories.
We have adjusted our business to become digital
Since the pandemic began, our IT and operations teams have digitally enhanced more than 20 different processes and services to make it easier for us to integrate with our distribution partners in this new reality. Our sales and customer service teams remain open and available to support you and your customers.

We are here with you and for you
- To commemorate our 100^th Anniversary this year, we donated $4.5 million to purchase and install a new MRI for Grand River Hospital and, as part of our Equitable Gives Back Contest, we donated $50,000 – $10,000 each – to five charities in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. As well, we are celebrating by randomly selecting policyholders to receive a $100 and three grand prizes. For more information about our celebrations, check out our website at www.equitable100.ca.
  
  As the global situation continues to evolve, rest assured that Equitable Life is unwavering in our commitments to you and the communities we serve. We are here with you and for you.
¹ Life Ops Consulting Group Distribution Service Satisfaction Surveys 2015-2019, Independent Advisors
²LIMRA CxP Customer Experience Benchmarking Program, Life Insurance In-Force Experience 2019
³NMG Consulting’s Canadian Group Benefits Survey 2019