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Market Commentary April 2026

Key Takeaways
• Markets started 2026 constructively, with positive returns in both stock and bond markets in the first two months of the year. However, the war on Iran by the U.S. and Israel drove significant changes to markets in March. The biggest driver was the spike in oil prices. Oil prices increased over 70% during the quarter to over US$100 per barrel as 20% of global oil production became trapped in the Middle East when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
• Canadian equities returned 3.9% in the first quarter, outperforming U.S. equities which lost -4.3%. The Canadian market benefitted from its 40% exposure to strong performing Energy, Materials and Utilities sectors, which each gained over 10% in Q1. Conversely, the U.S. market has much less exposure to those strong performing sectors and therefore fell as geopolitical tensions weighed on performance of most other sectors.
• Canadian bonds posted modest gains as early-quarter strength was largely offset by March weakness. Rising commodity prices reignited inflation fears and prompted speculation for central bank interest rate hikes. Credit spreads widened as concerns regarding defaults and liquidity in the private credit market intensified.
• The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve held policy rates unchanged during the first quarter. Both central banks maintained a wait-and-see approach amid slowing labour markets, persistent inflation risks, and heightened global uncertainty.
Economic and Market UpdateEconomic Summary: The U.S. economy continued to grow at a steady pace in the first quarter. Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target. The labour market showed signs of cooling as hiring slowed, but the unemployment rate remained stable. However, higher energy prices and risks to global supply chains added near term inflation pressures and weighed on the global outlook. The Federal Reserve held its policy interest rate unchanged during the quarter, maintaining the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Chair Powell highlighted ongoing uncertainty and reiterated that the Federal Reserve is well positioned to adjust policy as economic conditions evolve.
In Canada, economic growth remained subdued in the first quarter as excess supply persisted, and the labour market softened. Inflation stayed close to the 2.0% target, though rising global energy prices increased short term inflation risks. Trade uncertainty continued to weigh on confidence and business activity. The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate steady at 2.25% throughout the quarter. The Governing Council noted it stands ready to respond if the economic outlook shifts materially.
Bond Markets: The Canada Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.23% in the first quarter. A strong start to the year in January and February (+2.25%) was mostly offset by a weak March (-1.97%), as higher oil prices from the war in Iran led to higher interest rates on Canadian bonds (bond prices fall as interest rates go up). The increase in interest rates was most predominant in shorter term bonds, with higher oil prices driving inflation fears. These inflation fears reframed the market’s interest rate cut expectations for 2026: a 40% chance of an interest cut by the Bank of Canada has now shifted to a 70% chance of not just one, but two 25 basis point increases to the Bank of Canada overnight rate in 2026. In addition, the war in Iran has resulted in a higher risk premium for corporate bonds: credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) moved higher in March after reaching record low levels in January and February. These higher credit spreads resulted in corporate bonds modestly underperforming the overall index, albeit still with positive returns. Despite the modest risk off tone, investors remain buyers of corporate bonds as evidenced by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to set new records, with an impressive $50 billion in new issuance in the quarter, a record start to the year and 23% higher than the same period in 2025.
Stock Markets: The first quarter of 2026 marked a period of heightened investor caution with geopolitical tensions rising. Equity markets remained under pressure in March, as dip buyers remained cautious. Early market volatility was driven by several geopolitical developments, including Japan’s snap election, events in Venezuela, and U.S. interest in Greenland. Private credit markets also came under pressure as liquidity tightened and default risks increased, particularly in semi-liquid lending structures. The war on Iran raised concerns around demand destruction and inflation, pushing oil prices above US$100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. Gold continued to rise strongly early in the quarter. However, it later recorded its sharpest decline in years, driven by central bank selling. Despite this pullback, gold finished the quarter up 8% and continues to be viewed as a key safe-haven asset.
U.S. Equities: U.S. equities entered the first quarter with strong momentum, supported by robust earnings growth from technology companies. While earnings results confirmed this strength, investor sentiment weakened, particularly toward Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies. Rapid progress in AI agents developed by firms such as Anthropic and Google highlighted how quickly generative AI could automate core SaaS functions. As a result, software stocks sold off sharply in February, triggering a broader rotation away from largecap growth. Furthermore, tighter financial conditions and rising geopolitical tensions reduced risk tolerance and drove sharp sector rotation. The Energy sector led market performance, while Technology lagged and Financials underperformed due to stress in credit markets.
Canadian Equities: The Canadian stock market was supported by its high exposure to commodities. That structural tilt helped Canadian equities outperform U.S. equities as macro narratives shifted toward inflation concerns and supply risks. Performance during the quarter was marked by a sharp whipsaw between gold and oil, reflecting shifting investor sentiment. Investors sold gold aggressively and scrambled to source U.S. dollars as financial conditions tightened. Conversely, oil prices rose sharply on Middle East supply disruptions, lifting Energy stocks to become the strongest-performing sector of the quarter, up 29%.
Bottom line: The first quarter showed how quickly geopolitical shocks can reshape sectors’ performance. Canada outperformed U.S. growth markets due to its higher exposure to commodities, as energy prices rose and inflation concerns returned. The sharp move in gold and oil prices highlighted the market’s sensitivity to macro developments. The war against Iran forced investors to reprice both inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Looking ahead, geopolitical stability, energy prices, and central bank policy are likely to remain key drivers of market performance and sector leadership.
Downloadable Copy
Mark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public InvestmentsIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public InvestmentsJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Public InvestmentsJin Li
Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM
Sr. Quantitative Analyst
Andrew Vermeer, CFA
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
Edward Ng Cheng Hin
Analyst, Credit
Kate (Huyen) Vinh
Analyst, Equity
Francie Chen
Analyst, Rates
ADVISOR USE ONLY
Except for statements of historical fact, all statements in this document are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s current best judgment as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may be materially different from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions, or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained in this document. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and to not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. -
2024 Holiday hours
The Holiday season brings thoughts of gratitude, and there is no better time to express our thanks and sincere appreciation for your dedication and commitment to Equitable.
Thank you for your support this past year and for trusting Equitable with your Individual Insurance and Savings & Retirement business. Happy Holidays!
Client Care Centre Holiday Hours
Friday December 6, 2024 - CLOSED
Tuesday December 24, 2024 - 8:30 a.m. – 11:00 a.m. ET
Wednesday December 25, 2024 – CLOSED
Thursday December 26, 2024 – CLOSED
December 27, 30 and 31, 2024 - 8:30 a.m. – 7:30 p.m. ET
Wednesday January 1, 2025 - CLOSED
Savings & Retirement
All transaction requests to be handled same business day must be submitted in good order by:
● December 24, 2024, 11:00 a.m. ET
● December 31, 2024, 11:00 a.m. ET
FHSA applications to be considered for 2024 contribution year must be submitted in good order by:
● December 31, 2024, 11:59 p.m. ET
FHSA online banking deposit deadline for 2024 contribution receipt:
● December 24, 2024, 4:00 p.m. ET Note: Transaction requests submitted after 11:00 a.m. ET will be processed effective next business day
RRSP deposits to be considered for the 2024 tax year must be:
● Dated March 3, 2025, or before
● Must be submitted to Head Office in good order by March 7, 2025, by 4:00 p.m. ET
RRSP applications to be considered for 2024 contribution year must be submitted in good order by:
● March 3, 2025, 11:59 p.m. ET
RRSP B2B Loans:
● RRSP loan deposits must be received by March 14, 2025, by 4:00 p.m. ET
Note: Transactions submitted after these dates will not receive a 2024 contribution receipt
Individual Insurance
Underwriting
● Underwriting must receive all evidence and outstanding Underwriting requirements by December 9th at the latest. Underwriting will then be able to decision these cases by December 16th. This will give the New Business team December 13th – December 31st to issue and settle policies.
New Business
● New Business will continue to process all issue and settle requirements every business day until the last working day of the year – December 31st. New Business needs to receive ALL final settle documents in Good Order within our posted service standards. We are currently operating at a 3 business day turn around time.
Field Payroll
● Second Last Pay Period for 2024 – December 11, 2024 to December 17, 2024 (Transmission/Statement date December 18, 2024)
● Last Pay Period of 2024 – December 18, 2024 to December 31, 2024 (Transmission/Statement date January 2, 2025)
● First Pay of 2025 – January 1, 2025 to January 7, 2025 (Transmission/Statement date on January 8, 2025)
Daily Pay will run on business days.
Please note that all requirements must be received in Head Office by the above dates to guarantee settlement for year end.
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Meghan Vallis named head of distribution for myFlex Benefits and other group benefits updates
Meghan Vallis named head of distribution for myFlex Benefits
We are pleased to announce that Meghan Vallis, our Group Sales Vice President for Western Canada, will head national distribution for myFlex Benefits in addition to her existing responsibilities.
As part of her expanded role, Meghan will lead the myFlex Benefits sales team and develop and implement strategies to achieve the growth of this offering. Meghan and the myFlex team will continue to focus on delivering market leading services for our clients and advisors.
Meghan joined Equitable Life in 2020 and brings more than 15 years of experience in the group benefits industry to her expanded role. She is passionate about helping Advisors succeed to transform their clients' employee benefit experience.
myFlex Benefits is one of the most unique and versatile benefits solutions for small businesses in Canada. It is fully pooled, includes a two-year renewal and features a user-friendly portal for plan members to make their benefit selections. And it’s simple to use: Plan sponsors set a budget and choose from a selection of benefit options. Plan members then use flex dollars to select from the options offered by their employer. Any leftover flex dollars are saved in a health care spending account (HCSA).
If you have any questions or are interested in learning more about myFlex Benefits, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.Changes to Short Term Disability (STD) benefit calculations for 2023*
The Canada Employment Insurance Commission and Canada Revenue Agency have announced the 2023 changes to Maximum Insurable Earnings and premiums for employment insurance.
The following changes to Employment Insurance (EI) will come into effect on Jan. 1, 2023:
How does this affect your clients?
Your clients’ STD benefit will be revised with the updated maximums based on the percentage of EI Maximum Weekly Insurable Earnings shown in their policy if:- Their Equitable Life Group Policy includes an STD benefit that is tied to the EI Maximum Weekly Insurable Earnings, and
- At least one classification of employees has a maximum of less than $650.
If their STD maximum is currently higher than $650 or based on a flat amount instead of a percentage or regular earnings, no change will be made to their plan unless otherwise directed.
If your clients wish to provide direction regarding revising their STD maximum, or if they have questions about the process, they can email Kari Gough, Manager, Group Issue and Special Projects.Coming soon: Survey for Plan Administrators with recent disability claims*
We’ve enhanced our communication processes to help your clients with disability plans manage their workplace absences more effectively. In early December, we will distribute a short survey to plan administrators who may have submitted an approved disability claim in the past six months. The survey will ask recipients about their satisfaction with the frequency and detail of our disability management communications.
The email will come from GBClientFeedback@equitable.ca, and the survey will remain open until the end of the day on December 16, 2022. All responses will be confidential. We plan to use the feedback to help ensure that we’re meeting your clients’ expectations and delivering industry-leading service.
We may also follow up with survey respondents directly, to address any concerns they’ve identified.
* Indicates content that will be shared with your clients. - [pdf] Dialogue Virtual Healthcare Overview
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