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EAMG Market Commentary August 2022
August 2022
The S&P 500 fell into bear market territory over the first half of 2022 with the index down -20.6%. This represented a top 10 ranking amongst the most dismal back-to-back quarterly performances going back to 1928. While comparisons have been made to the inflation driven bear market of 1973-74, the economic backdrop today has some significant differences including greater production capacity (factory utilization rates are running about 20% lower vs the 70’s) and a meaningful decline in raw industrial prices which have fallen -11% over the quarter. While these economic anecdotes are potential positives for the future, it’s important to remain cognizant that prices remain elevated.
As such, the US Federal Reserve seems to be taking every opportunity to telegraph their intentions of raising interest rates at the expense of both market and economic performance, so long as inflation remains a threat. Given this hawkish tone, the market narrative has morphed from fears of inflation to a fed driven recession. As a result, the move in the bond market has been swift with the 10-year treasury yield peaking at approximately 3.5% in June to today’s level of 2.7% (lower rates = higher bond prices). This positive bond performance reflects the consensus view that inflation is temporary (2023 CPI forecasts are approximately 3.6% vs the second quarter’s 8.7% CPI reading) and could allow the Fed to adjust their higher interest rate trajectory downward. The Fed also remains confident that a soft landing is achievable, and a recession avoidable.
Investors seem less convinced however, given the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing before, and so it’s no surprise equity markets entered a bear market over the quarter, and currently remain in a technical correction (defined as losses greater than -10%). To better assess future performance, we closely monitor earnings results to understand how companies are navigating these economic trends. With nearly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, the results have been better than expected, but still the EPS beat rate and magnitude of beats (actual vs expectation) remain below 5-year averages. This tells us companies are finding today’s economic conditions more challenging than the recent past. Consumer sectors including marketing, retail, autos and textiles posted the 2nd worst performance vs other sectors while the Financials sector saw the greatest challenges with aggregate EPS falling by -15% year-over-year. Wall Street analysts have started to revise S&P 500 forward growth estimates lower, a trend which we expect will continue for several quarters ahead. The forward (12-month blended) P/E ratio of 17.5 times remains 1.5 multiple points above the long-term average which potentially suggests risks may not be fully priced in.
In terms of the S&P/TSX Composite, after declining nearly -14% in Q2 as recession fears around the world jeopardized the global demand outlook, its’ since rebounded over 4.0%. Still, valuation remains below longer-term averages at 11.8x forward earnings with the heavier weighted Financials and Energy sectors trading at 9.5x and 7.9x, respectively. TSX earnings expectations have stalled as of late but downward revisions are lagging US and European counterparts. Additionally, the domestic labour market remains tight which has allowed the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive rate hike path to curb soaring inflation. For most of 2022 the TSX has benefitted from surging commodity prices but an economic slowdown in China resulting from its commitment to a zero-Covid policy and a potential global recession could prove to be a challenge for the Canadian market.
Equity markets on average lose 30% of their value in recession led bear markets. If we use this as a potential road map, it suggests the S&P 500 could have further to fall. Using past performance as a forward-looking tool however is an imperfect technique and used in isolation of what’s happening today can often mislead.
Accounting for today’s backdrop, we come up with three scenarios of varying probabilities. The first is the most optimistic and includes an engineered soft landing by the Fed, meaning no recession and inflation cools. A less optimistic view is the fed tames inflation with higher interest rates but tips the economy into a mild-to-moderate recession. The outcome would be consumer spending and corporate hiring slow as a result of tighter financial conditions, and therefore financial results are negatively impacted. The least optimistic scenario is one where stagflationary conditions emerge as inflation continues to accelerate at the expense of growth despite higher interest rates, in other words the Fed loses control. The net result would be similar to our second scenario but with much more dire results in terms of unemployment, household spending and impacts to corporate profitability. While we don’t rule out any of the above scenarios completely, we assign the highest probability to the second one where macro economic issues get resolved at some point in the future, but the full effects of inflation and a possible recession have yet to be priced into the market. Currently, this view translates into a slight underweight equity position versus our benchmark with a tilt towards low volatility and defensive strategies along with an overlay of value and dividend paying securities. In other words, we’ve de-risked the portfolios relative to our benchmark to manage potential downside risks but remain meaningfully invested an on absolute basis. As always, time in the market tends to overcome trying to time the market, and so employing a strategic and diversified strategy is often the most prudent approach.
Downloadable Copy
ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. -
Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - October 2022
Introducing new Gender Affirmation Coverage for group benefits plans
Providing an inclusive benefits plan can play a critical role in fostering a workplace culture that welcomes diversity and helps employees thrive. While most provinces cover the cost of gender-affirming surgery, each person has unique needs. Some may require procedures that are not publicly covered.
That’s why we’re pleased to introduce a new coverage option for gender affirmation surgical procedures that are not covered by provincial health plans. Gender Affirmation Coverage helps plan sponsors to close the gap where provincial health coverage ends.Coverage details and eligibility
Gender Affirmation Coverage can be added to any Equitable Life plan with an in-force Extended Health Care plan. It provides coverage for gender-affirming procedures that are not covered by provincial health plans. This might include tracheal (Adam’s apple) shaving and voice surgery. It will also cover some additional procedures to further align the plan member’s features to the transitioned gender, such as facial bone reduction and cheek augmentation. This makes a wider variety of gender-affirming surgeries accessible to plan members and helps minimize their out-of-pocket costs.
Plan members are eligible for coverage with a diagnosis of gender dysphoria from a qualified health care professional.Offering a more inclusive benefits plan
The coverage provides one more way for your clients to offer more inclusive coverage and to offer holistic support to their plan members undergoing a gender transition. We have developed this coverage as a complement to our existing coverage options, including Health Care Spending Accounts (HCSAs), Taxable Spending Accounts (TSAs), Extended Health Care and drug coverage, and Employee and Family Assistance Programs, all of which can provide support to plan members undergoing gender affirmation.
We regularly review our products to ensure that they’re meeting your clients’ needs, and we’re committed to offering products that support diversity, equity and inclusion.
We also continue to review our forms, documents and processes to make them more inclusive. This includes reviewing our online plan member enrolment (OPME) tool to allow for more flexibility with the way plan members identify their gender.Gender affirmation and mental well-being
Gender affirmation procedures can lead to improved mental health outcomes for those with gender dysphoria, as most report an improvement in their quality of life following the procedures. Gender dysphoria may occur when a person’s assigned sex at birth does not match their identity, and people experiencing gender dysphoria typically report psychological and emotional distress, including symptoms of depression or anxiety. By offering coverage where provincial health coverage ends, your clients can support plan members as they seek procedures that align their body presentation with their self-identified gender.
Advantages at a glance
Advantages for plan members include:- Reimbursement for some procedures and expenses, leading to fewer out-of-pocket costs
- May experience improved mental health outcomes after surgery
- A benefits plan that promotes a culture of diversity, equity and inclusion, which may build employee loyalty
- Support for plan member mental health to help those with gender dysphoria thrive
The Benefits Canada 2022 Health Care Survey results are in!
Equitable Life is proud to be a Platinum sponsor for The Benefits Canada 2022 Health Care Survey, Canada’s leading survey on workplace benefits plans. This year’s survey report highlights many fascinating insights across a wide variety of benefits topics, including:- A focus on mental health for both plan sponsors and plan members
- The repercussions of the "shadow" pandemic due to health care delays
- Trends in plan members' overall perceptions of their health benefits plans
- The types of benefits getting more attention from plan members
- The role of remote work in plan member satisfaction
We’re committed to helping you and your clients navigate the evolving landscape of employee benefits in Canada by contributing to this vibrant industry community. To read the full report, visit Benefits Canada.
HCSA and TSA manual allocation reminder
If your clients’ Health Care Spending Account (HCSA) and/or Taxable Spending Account (TSA) have manual allocations, they need to allocate these amounts to plan members each year. Clients should review their plan members’ profiles on EquitableHealth.ca to ensure they have received their allocation(s) for the current benefit year. Your clients may also order HCSA and TSA forfeiture reports on EquitableHealth.ca.
If your clients have Plan Administrator update access on EquitableHealth.ca, they can update these amounts online by doing the following:- Select View certificate
- Select Health Care Spending Account or Taxable Spending Account
- Select Update Allocation in Task Center
- Enter amount in Revised Allocation Amount
- Override Reason – Plan Administrator Request
- Select Save
- Select Reports
- Select New
- Select Next
- Select HCSA or TSA Totals by Plan Member
- Select Next
- Enter end date of 12/31/2022
- Select Next
- Select Finish
- View Report
- [pdf] Dialogue Virtual Healthcare Overview
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - September 2020
In this issue:
Enhancements to Equitable EZClaim Mobile
New reports available on EquitableHealth.ca* Indicates content that will be shared with your clients.
Enhancements to Equitable EZClaim® Mobile*
We’ve updated our Equitable EZClaim mobile app to process vision claims faster, to provide a new option for submitting documents and to increase password security.
Faster vision claims processing and payment
Equitable Life now provides faster processing of vision claims submitted via EZClaim Mobile.
This means plan members can find out the status of their vision claim almost instantaneously. And, for approved claims, they will receive payment even sooner – often in as little as 24 hours.
In order to allow for instant processing and faster payment, plan members will be prompted to enter some additional information, including their practitioner’s name, the date of the expense, the type of expense and amount of the expense when submitting their claims for these services.
Equitable Life plan members can submit all vision claims via Equitable EZClaim, including coordination of benefits and Health Care Spending Account claims.
Submit documents from a mobile device
We have added our Document Submission tool to EZClaim Mobile so plan members can conveniently submit documents directly from their mobile device. Applications, change forms, statement of health forms and more can all be easily uploaded whenever and wherever they are.
Improved security with stronger passwords
To help you, your clients and plan members better protect personal information, we have increased the maximum length of passwords for both EZClaim Online and EZClaim Mobile from 12 to 32 characters. This longer character limit makes it easier to create stronger and more secure passwords.
There is no change for plan members, plan administrators or advisors. All existing passwords will continue to function. However, if you choose to update your password you will now be able to choose longer passwords or passphrases.
Why should I change my password?
Changing your password frequently helps keep your information safe. The longer and more random the password, the more secure it is. To improve security even more, a passphrase is recommended.
A passphrase is a series of words or other text used like a password. Because it is much longer, a passphrase is more secure. Although the words in the phrase may be meaningful to you and easy to remember, they can be random enough that the full phrase is difficult for someone else to guess. It’s even better if you use numbers or other characters in your passphrase.
Your passphrase should be:
- Long enough to be hard to guess;
- Not a famous quotation;
- Easy to remember and type; and
- Not used in multiple places.
To change your password:
- Log in to EquitableHealth.ca
- Click on My Information > User Profile
- Click Edit
- Confirm your information and enter your new password
- Click Save
We will be announcing this enhancement to plan members on EquitableHealth.ca.
New reports available on EquitableHealth.ca*
Plan administrators and advisors with reporting access can now download three additional reports any time via the plan administrator and advisor websites on EquitableHealth.ca:
- Premium and Tax – This report provides a breakdown of premiums and taxes paid per plan member for any specific time period for all applicable benefits.
- Occupation and Earnings – This report provides current plan member earnings and occupation information and gives plan administrators an efficient way to report updates to us.
- Employee listing – This report lists all plan members’ information, including name, certificate number, date of birth, province, occupation and salary, as well as benefit coverage currently in place and HCSA allocations.
These reports can be downloaded in Excel format for easy updating, filtering or sorting.
For more information, please contact your Client Relationship Specialist.
*Indicates content that will be shared with your clients
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December 2023 eNews
Insights on EZBenefits from our Executive Vice-President, Group Insurance
When it comes to advising small business owners, it can be tough to find the right group benefits solution. Offering a competitive benefits plan is more important than ever to help small business owners attract and retain talent. They need an affordable solution that’s easy to implement, renew and maintain.
That’s why we launched EZBenefits for small business earlier this year. It’s a unique group benefits solution designed with you and your small business clients in mind.Marc Avaria, Executive Vice-President, Group Insurance, explains:
Find out more
Visit info.equitable.ca/EZBenefits for more details or to request a quote. If you have questions, contact your Equitable Group Account Executive.
Now that cold and flu season is here, many Canadians will start calling in sick or missing work to visit their doctor – if they can get an appointment. Now’s the time to remind your clients that Equitable offers Dialogue Virtual Healthcare. It can be added to any Equitable plan for an additional cost.
Supporting plan members through cold and flu season with Dialogue Virtual Healthcare*
Eligible plan members and dependants receive fast, on-demand access to virtual primary medical care—24/7, 365 days a year. Available for a variety of non-urgent health concerns, Dialogue Virtual Healthcare can make it easier to navigate cold and flu season by providing:- Access to the largest, most experienced bilingual medical team in Canada,
- In-app prescription renewals and refills,
- Personalized follow-ups after each consultation, and
- An all-in-one patient journey to address health issues. This reduces long waits and means less time away for doctor appointments.
Benefits of Virtual Healthcare for plan sponsors
When your clients provide Virtual Healthcare for their plan members, they can help:- Drive employee engagement;
- Reduce absenteeism related to in-person medical appointments;
- Manage chronic health issues;
- Attract and retain top talent; and
- Build a healthier workforce.
Learn how it works
Adding Dialogue Virtual Healthcare to your clients' plans
To learn more about adding Virtual Healthcare to your clients’ benefits plans, contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex® Account Executive. You can also share this resource from Dialogue on managing cold and flu season.
The Canada Employment Insurance Commission and Canada Revenue Agency have announced the 2024 changes to Maximum Insurable Earnings, and premiums for employment insurance. The following changes to Employment Insurance (EI) will take effect January 1, 2024:
Changes to Short-Term Disability benefits calculations*
How does this affect your clients?
To comply with client policy provisions, Equitable will revise Short-Term Disability (STD) benefits with the updated maximums based on the percentage of EI Maximum Weekly Insurance Earnings for policies that meet these conditions:- Policies that include a STD benefit that is tied to the EI Maximum Weekly Insurable Earnings, and
- Policies with a classification of employees that has less than a $668 maximum.
- The additional premium for any increase from their previous STD amounts and new STD amounts will be shown on your clients’ January 2024 Group Insurance Billings (as applicable).
If your clients wish to provide direction regarding revising their STD maximum, or have questions about the process, they can email Kari Gough, Manager, Group Issue and Special Projects.
*Indicates content that will be shared with your clients. - [pdf] Equitable GIF FHSA Application
- [pdf] Equitable GIF TFSA Application
- [pdf] Equitable GIF Registered Application
- Administration Reference Guide for Individual Wealth
- Policy Change and Conversions eDelivery - Quick Tips and Tricks