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EAMG Market Commentary July 2023
Posted July 27, 2023
July 17, 2023
Rates & Credit - The rates market was volatile in Q2 as investors focused on inflation, central bank interest rate decisions, and recession probabilities. Persistent strength in U.S. consumer spending and labour markets have surprised investors and prompted further interest rate tightening from central banks. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index during the quarter, with a total return of 0.2%, versus a loss of 1.0% for government bonds and 0.7% for the overall Index. The corporate bond outperformance was driven by a broad risk-on tone to the market, most notably in April as the market recovered from the banking sector liquidity crisis that developed during March. That said, the market tone remained cautious, with the improved risk premium on corporate bonds tempered by lingering concerns around sticky inflation, high interest rates, and the potential for slower economic growth into the latter half of the year.
Dominance of U.S. Equities – U.S. equity markets posted another strong quarter with the S&P 500 returning 8.7%, outperforming Canada and other major international equity markets. The S&P/TSX Composite, returned 1.2% in CAD. Major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) returned 3.2% in local currency terms. The highly anticipated re-opening of the Chinese economy has failed to materialize with economic data indicating less strength than previously forecasted. Amid sluggish Chinese growth, closely interconnected economic partners such as the European Union, as well as commodity-driven markets like Canada, have all underperformed the U.S. on a relative basis.
U.S. Fundamentals – Earnings continued to contract versus prior year, albeit at a slower pace than forecasted. Forward earnings guidance improved quarter-over-quarter with corporate sentiment returning to neutral levels. Based on our analysis, we observed that 31% of major companies expect deteriorating financial performance, while 33% expect improved performance, with the remaining expecting no material change. Overall, major U.S. companies remain well capitalized with strong operating margins. However, company guidance indicates a prioritization of cost controls amid increased consumer indebtedness and concerns about the health of the consumer.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Mania – Despite concerns that the U.S. economy is at a late stage in its economic cycle, that monetary tightening by central banks could go too far, and the fact that earnings contracted on a year-over-year basis, equity markets became more expensive during the quarter with price-to-earnings multiples expanding. This expansion was driven by investors crowding into AI focused technology companies, with the seven largest AI/technology themed companies averaging a 26% return while the other 493 members gained only 3%. Investors rewarded businesses with contributions to AI development (hardware and software components), as well as those with the ability to implement synergies from leveraging the technology. A crowded market surge is not uncommon at this point in the economic cycle, where positive economic surprises, in this instance, strong employment and consumer spending can lead to an upswelling in investor confidence.
U.S. Quant Factors – Using our investment framework, we currently favour exposures to large cash-rich companies with innovative product offerings, which we believe offer the strongest risk-adjusted returns in the current market environment. While the valuation of AI companies seems to defy traditional rationales, the momentum has continued to push the group higher. Consequently, the Quality factor (companies with higher return-on-equity, strong operating performance, and healthy leverage levels) participated in the AI trend and consistently outperformed throughout the quarter. The Low Volatility factor (stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement, and lower price volatility) underperformed through the quarter. While the Low Volatility factor typically performs well at this stage of the economic cycle, the fact that a small number of stocks were responsible for much of the market’s return hurt this factor. Lastly, the Momentum factor (stocks with a recent history of price appreciation) initially underperformed during the quarter before rebounding in June. This factor’s recent outperformance suggests that the market is becoming complacent and possibly signals that rotations within the market are slowing as current trends remain in favour.
Canadian Fundamentals – Top line revenue missed forecasts while bottom line earnings were consistent with expectations. Softer-than-expected results out of Canadian financials, as well as underwhelming results from the materials sector, dragged on the aggregate index performance. Earnings forecasts for the rest of the year have been revised downward with analyst expecting index aggregate earnings to detract 2% to 3%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.75% on the backdrop of robust economic data releases including Q1 GDP and April CPI.
Canadian Quant Factors – The most notable dislocation in Canada was the convergence of the dividend yield of High-Dividend ETFs and Equal-Weight Bank ETFs. We believe that the drag from Canadian banks following the U.S. regional banking concerns in March resulted in a discount of the Quality factor as the performance of the group is sensitive to the movements of banks. While banks did recover around 35% of their SVB-induced underperformance, the nature of banking has attracted investor scrutiny given the view that we are in the late-stage of the economic cycle. That said, this environment is an attractive environment to add variants of the Quality factor, which would gain exposure to a rebounding industry that offers a similar dividend yield to the high dividend stocks.
Views From the Frontline
Rates – On an outright basis, bond yields across the curve continue to look attractive. Economic data remains strong however we are beginning to see the first signs of weakness in spending, jobs and inflation. Slower growth, a more balanced labour market, declining inflation, and tighter credit conditions will likely drive interest rates lower throughout 2023. Market participants remain focused on the extent of interest rate hikes and the duration of a pause required to bring inflation back to the 2% target. With inflation remaining more persistent than previously expected forecasts around the timing, pace and extent of the removal of monetary policy have been pushed into 2024.
Credit – The uncertain economic outlook and risks around slower economic growth later this year merit caution about corporate bonds and a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we think the risk / reward dynamic are more favourable. That said, the “soft-landing” narrative, now more pervasive in the market, could continue to provide support to risk assets, which we view as an opportunity to further pare down higher beta exposure.
Equities – Given the direction of the current economic and company fundamental data, we continue to favour high quality growth segments of the market with strong operating margins. As such, the late cycle conditions in the market reinforce our preference for large cap stocks over smaller, more U.S. domestically focused businesses. The U.S. Low Volatility factor’s underperformance is unlikely to reverse in the short term given the resilience of the U.S. economy. Furthermore, after a steep decline last quarter, we expect that cyclical value will find support in the near term, echoing the increased chance of slowing inflation without stalling economic growth. In Canada, equities are typically more cyclical in nature, which coupled with the potential for an earnings contraction, makes us view the Low Volatility factor as more likely to outperform. Like the U.S., we prefer Canadian high-quality companies to navigate through the late cycle environment. On the heels of poor Chinese economic data and underwhelming stimulus, we are maintaining our overweight to the U.S. relative to Canada and EAFE.
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Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. - [pdf] Equimax Estate Reprice Transition Rules
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Referrals are important to your business...and they're important to ours too
MGA advisors ranked Equitable Life® #1 as the company they would be most likely to recommend to a friend.
Life Ops Consulting Group Distribution Service Satisfaction Survey 2021. (Independent advisors) -
Competitive GIA rates and more!
With many bond funds declining in value over the past year, clients are looking for fixed income alternatives to reduce portfolio risk while providing a principal guarantee and an attractive interest rate.
Equitable Life® Guaranteed Interest Account (GIA) investment options are ideal for clients who want to create an emergency fund or save for a special purchase. And we’ve recently increased interest rates to make our GIA options even more competitive!
A few reasons to consider Equitable Life for your GIA business:- The GIA advantage – a life insurance contract can provide many estate planning benefits.
- Industry-leading compensation – we currently pay 40bps of commission per year of term.1 Many competitors only offer 20 – 25bps per year of term.2
- Cashable option3 – allows clients to access their money in case of unexpected circumstances. Not many competitors offer this feature.2
- Advisor rate discretion – advisors can forego up to 40bps of commission for an equal increase in interest rate, making our great rates even better.
- Win-Win – our GIAs allow you to give the client a better interest rate while still earning a good commission.
For more information, please contact your Equitable Life Regional Investment Sales Manager.
1 Equitable Life commission rates as at May 19, 2022.
2 Competitive information as at November 20, 2021; Equitable Life does not guarantee the accuracy of competitive information.
3 Withdrawals made prior to the maturity date will be subject to a market value adjustment and may be subject to tax.
® denotes a registered trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
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Give clients guaranteed retirement income with Payout Annuities
With increased market volatility and interest rates higher than we have seen for much of the past decade, now is a great time to consider payout annuities. Payout annuities can provide regular guaranteed income regardless of how markets perform.
Clients using only a Systematic Withdrawal Plan (SWP) for retirement income are potentially vulnerable during times of market volatility due to the sequence-of-returns risk.1 When markets are down, more units are redeemed to cover income needs. When markets later rise, clients are not able to participate fully in the recovery because more units were redeemed to provide income. That is why having a guaranteed income component, like a payout annuity, as part of an overall retirement strategy is so important.
Three great reasons to consider Equitable Life® for your payout annuity business:
1. Choose from a variety of payout annuity options including:
A. Life Annuity – guaranteed income for one life
B. Joint Life Annuity – guaranteed income for two lives
C. Term Certain – guaranteed income for a specific period of time (5 to 30 years)
D. Term Certain to Age 90 – guaranteed income until age 90
2. Attractive rates, particularly in Registered and Term Certain Annuities
3. Step Up Your Wealth Sales program - 25% of payout annuity net sales qualify for the 0.75% bonus commission earned on net deposits for 20222
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For more information, please contact your Equitable Life Regional Investment Sales Manager.
1Sequence-of-returns risk, or sequence risk, is the risk that an investor will experience negative portfolio returns very late in their working life and/or early in retirement.
2All eligible deposits, sales, and redemptions occurring between January 1 and December 31, 2022, will be used to calculate an advisor’s 2022 net deposits.
® denotes a registered trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada. -
New Dividend Scale Effective July 1, 2023!
Equitable Life’s Board of Directors has approved a change to the dividend scale* for the period July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024.
- The interest rate we use for the dividend scale will go from 6.05% to 6.25% on July 1, 2023.
- Other factors used to decide the dividend scale will stay the same.
- The interest rate for participating whole life policies with dividends on deposit will stay the same at 2.25%.
- The policy loan interest rate** will go from 6.20% to 6.50% on June 30, 2023
More good news!
Once the next dividend scale year starts, we expect policyholder dividends to be close to $105 million until the end of June 2024.
Learn more
- Advisor Dividend Scale Notice
- Client Dividend Scale Notice
- Dividend Information Page
Did you miss our virtual Spring Update & 2023 Dividend Scale Announcement? Watch it now:
(*The French and Chinese events will be partially in English, with sub-titles on screen).
TOGETHER – Protecting Today – Preparing Tomorrow™
As a MUTUAL we provide financial security DIFFERENTLY by focusing exclusively on our CLIENTS.
*Dividends are not guaranteed and are paid at the sole discretion of the Board of Directors. Dividends may be subject to taxation. Dividends will vary based on the actual investment returns in the Participating Account as well as mortality, expense, lapse, claims experience, taxes, and other experience of the participating block of policies. Changes in the dividend scale do not affect the guaranteed premium, guaranteed cash values, or guaranteed death benefit amount. A copy of Equitable Life’s Dividend Policy and Participating Account Management Policy can be found on our website at www.equitable.ca.
** This applies to all new and active policy loans, including automatic premium loans. This change is for Equimax® policies that have a 9-digit policy number beginning with a “3” or an “8”. Some older policies may have other loan rates as they are based on the prime interest rate. -
Equitable 2024 dividend scale!
Equitable’s Board of Directors has approved a new dividend scale for the period of July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025.
● The interest rate* we use for the dividend scale will change. It will go from 6.25% to 6.40% on July 1, 2024.
● Other factors used to decide the dividend scale will remain the same.
● The interest rate for policies with dividends on deposit will change. It will go from 2.25% to 3.50% on July 1, 2024.
● The interest rate for most policy loans will remain at 6.50%. This applies to both new and existing policy loans, and automatic premium loans. It specifically applies to Equimax® policies with a 9-digit policy number that starts with either "3" or "8". Older policies may have different loan rates as they are based on the prime interest rate.
Learn more:
● 2024 Advisor Dividend Scale Notice
● 2024 Client Dividend Scale Notice
● Dividend Information Page
Did you miss our Spring update & 2024 Dividend Scale announcement? Watch it now:
(*The French and Chinese events will be partially in English, with sub-titles on screen).
*The dividend scale interest rate (DSIR) is different from the participating account (PAR) rate of return. The PAR rate of return is the return on the investments in the participating account over the calendar year. The DSIR smooths out the ups and downs of the participating account experience. -
Equitable's Fresh Outlook DIA/GIA Contest
The recent launches of Equitable’s Daily Interest Account (DIA) and Guaranteed Interest Account (GIA) this summer have caused a bit of a buzz. So much so that we are launching Equitable’s Fresh Outlook DIA/GIA Contest.
That’s right. To celebrate our fresh client-focused approach within a digital business solution, Equitable® is giving advisors a chance to win a prize of one $1,000 gift card.
Between August 1, 2024 and October 31, 2024, every time advisors use Equitable’s EZcomplete® online application platform to submit a client's complete DIA/GIA application they will automatically be entered into the Fresh Outlook DIA/GIA Contest.
Equitable is committed to offering valuable guaranteed investment solutions in a competitive market. Our fresh approach to guaranteed investing makes Equitable’s Daily Interest Account or Guaranteed Interest Account an easy choice.
Speak to your Director, Investment Sales to learn more.
® or TM denotes a registered trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
Fresh Outlook DIA/GIA Contest: No purchase necessary. Contest period is August 1, 2024 to October 31, 2024. One (1) prize to be awarded for a total value of $1,000 CAD. Correct answer to mathematical skill-testing question required to win. Open to legal residents of Canada of the age of majority. Odds of winning depend on number of eligible Entries received during the Contest Period. For full contest rules, including no-purchase method of entry, see full contest rules.
Date posted: August 1, 2024