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  1. Compliance Resources
  2. Market Comments - October 2024
    Key Takeaways for Q3
    · Central banks eased monetary policy by reducing their target interest rates.
    · Bond markets performed very well during the quarter as interest rates fell.
    · Risk markets experienced some volatility, but stock markets had robust returns.
    · Canadian stocks outperformed U.S. stocks in Q3, while the sources of returns in the U.S. market were more balanced and diversified than in the first half of the year.
     

    Views From the Frontline

    Bond Markets: During the third quarter, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. moved significantly lower as markets anticipated that the Bank of Canada would continue – and the Federal Reserve would start – cutting rates. Additionally, the expectation became that the central banks would end up lowering rates more aggressively than previously assumed. That’s because inflation data has softened sufficiently to give the central banks the scope to ease policy, and other economic data, especially from the labour market, indicated the need for them to ease policy in order to prevent economic activity from cooling too much. For instance, in Canada, inflation slowed to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, while the labour market showed warning signs with the unemployment rate rising to 6.6%. The Bank of Canada cut its target interest rate by 0.25% at each of its July and September meetings. Governor Macklem indicated that if growth does not materialize as expected, “it could be appropriate to move faster on interest rates”. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve kicked off its easing cycle by cutting its target rate by 0.50% in September. The growing signs of a cooling labour market amidst slowing inflation motivated the larger-than-typical move. That said, consumer spending in the U.S. continued to be strong, and GDP is still tracking a healthy growth rate.

    While interest rates fell, bonds returns were also boosted by solid behaviour of corporate bonds. Credit spreads (i.e. the risk premium for corporate bonds versus government bonds) continued to grind lower over the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility.  Lower-rated BBB bonds performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds.  Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels that are largely consistent with the tight post-pandemic levels experienced in 2021.  The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to be very robust, with $29B (billion) in new issuance during the quarter, resulting in an impressive $119B issued year-to-date, a new record.  Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.

    Stock Markets: In the U.S., we continue to caution against heavily concentrated sources of market returns and emphasize a diversified portfolio. Last quarter, diversification proved essential as a multitude of factors heightened market volatility. These factors – which included the unwind of the yen carry trade, investor reactions to mixed mega-cap earnings, and concerns of a slowing labour market – drove investors away from mega-cap technology names and into defensive areas of the market. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates by 0.5%, sources of investment returns continued to broaden as investors rotated into economically-sensitive baskets. Underpinned by decelerating inflation and easing monetary policy, we believe the rotation away from the mega-cap tech names is likely to persist and we continue to emphasize portfolio diversification. In Canada, high-quality, high-yielding businesses – composed of the financial sector and non-financial dividend payers – outperformed over the quarter as investors rewarded companies that demonstrated a strong ability to sustain dividends, as well as greater efficiency generating profits. While we continue to favour these businesses, we have taken profit on our financial sector dividend exposure after a sharp reversion in the premium between value creation and current yield. In addition, Chinese officials introduced a wave of stimulus to revitalize growth, bringing life back to the metals and luxury goods sectors. Accordingly, Canadian and European equities have benefitted recently.

    Market Update
    chart1.pngRates & Credit: In Q3, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. decreased significantly, with front-end interest rates declining faster than long-end interest rates amid cooling inflation and a weakening labour market. As a result, the FTSE Canada Universe Index posted a positive return of 4.7%. Coincidentally, Canadian corporate bonds and government bonds each also generated returns of 4.7%, totally in-line with the Universe index. On the other hand, despite short-term interest rates falling much more than long-term interest rates, the higher price sensitivity of long-dated bonds had them outperform shorter-dated bonds, with the Long-Term bond index up 5.8% while the Short-Term bond index gained 3.4%.  Similarly, within corporate bonds, industries that have longer-dated debt (e.g. energy and infrastructure) outperformed those that tend to have shorter-dated debt (e.g. real estate and financials).

    Chart2.pngEquity Overview: Underpinned by decelerating inflation data and easing monetary policy – including the outsize 50-basis cut from the Federal Reserve – prospects for an economic soft landing increased over the quarter. That favourable outlook spurred global equity markets to all-time highs, with previously lagging areas of the market narrowing the performance gap compared to the U.S. mega-cap technology names that had led returns in the first half of the year. Canadian equities outperformed their U.S. counterpart last quarter, rising 10.5% as strength in the banking and materials sectors pushed the index higher. Major developed markets from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) were more subdued, gaining 0.9% (in local currency terms) last quarter. That said, grand expectations for further interest rate cuts in the U.S. pushed the greenback to its lowest level in over a year, boosting EAFE returns to over 7% in U.S. dollar terms. Within the U.S., sources of market returns broadened as well, with investors rotating out of concentrated AI companies and into more economically sensitive businesses.  

    U.S. Fundamentals: Outside of the Magnificent 7, investors are interpreting downside earnings surprises as a normalization of financial performance rather than a deterioration. For example, McDonald’s share price rallied over 17% into quarter-end following its earnings release despite announcing declining sales and contracting earnings per share. Within the AI-ecosystem, investors are beginning to look for opportunities beyond chip manufacturers, such as nuclear energy providers. At an index level, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000 index, excluding the Mag-7, posted a median earnings growth of nearly 9% year-over-year, expanding from the ~6% witnessed in Q2. Furthermore, the number of companies from this group reporting positive earnings growth grew to approximately 67%, up from 60% in the prior quarter. In our view, the ongoing broadening of earnings strength outside of the Mag-7 can provide tailwinds to current market rotations into previously left-behind companies. Within the mega-cap tech space, investors have become more discriminant than in prior quarters, rewarding businesses with greater success monetizing their AI-investments. This trend was evident through the divergence of returns from IBM and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) following their quarterly earnings.

     
    U.S. Quant Factors: Decelerating U.S. inflation data prompted a rotation out of highly concentrated areas of the market (growth) and into more economically-sensitive companies (value). Then, concerns of a slowing U.S. labour market and the unwind of the yen carry trade increased market volatility, leading investors to shelter their positions by reallocating to low volatility. As the quarter progressed, expectations of easing monetary policy and stabilizing employment data helped calm return to the market and the rotation from mega-cap tech sector resumed, albeit at a lesser pace. Notably, this “catch-up” trade also benefitted dividend-paying companies, particularly those with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, as investors favoured those more mature operations.

    Canadian Fundamentals: Investors returned to the Canadian market after Canadian companies showed signs of recovery last quarter with earnings expanding by more than expected. With inflation showing clearer signs of deceleration and the outlook regarding the path of monetary policy increasingly implying lower interest rates going forward, investors are allocating toward high-quality, dividend-paying companies. From a sector level, surging gold prices provided a tailwind for Canadian miners, helping the materials sector outperform over the quarter. More recently, the materials sector has benefitted from elevated base metal prices following the arrival of Chinese stimulus. In contrast, oil prices declined over 16% last quarter as fears of an oversupplied market swelled following speculation that OPEC+ would look to dial back production cuts. As a result, investors looked past lingering geopolitical risks and the energy sector underperformed.

    Canadian Quant Factors: Amid an improving Canadian macroeconomic backdrop and clearer outlook on the trajectory of monetary policy, dividend-yielding businesses became sought after. More specifically, investors continued to emphasize dividend sustainability last quarter, rewarding dividend-paying businesses that demonstrated strong financial performance and the ability to support future payouts. For example, the major Canadian banks sharply outperformed in Q3 after reporting earnings growth that mostly exceeded expectations. In essence, investors have become more constructive on this high-yielding group as their ability to create value relative to financing costs improves.

    Downloadable Copy

     
    Mark Warywoda, CFA
    VP, Public Portfolio Management
    Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA
    AVP, Public Portfolio Management
    Johanna Shaw, CFA
    Director, Portfolio Management
    Jin Li
    Director, Equity Portfolio Management
     
    Tyler Farrow, CFA
    Senior Analyst, Equity
     
    Andrew Vermeer
    Senior Analyst, Credit
     
    Elizabeth Ayodele
    Analyst, Credit
     
    Francie Chen
    Analyst, Rates
    ADVISOR USE ONLY

    Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

     
  3. EZcomplete Training and Resources
  4. Individual Wealth Marketing Materials
  5. II - Equimax® Participating Whole Life Insurance
  6. II - Equation Generation IV Universal Life
  7. Investment loans
  8. Investment loans
  9. Spring update and dividend scale for 2025/2026
    Good news! The Equitable® Board of Directors has approved continuing our current dividend scale for the period of July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026.

    • The interest rate* we use to decide the dividend scale will stay at 6.40%.
    • Other factors used to decide the dividend scale will stay the same.
    • The interest rate for policies with dividends on deposit will stay at 3.50%.
    • The interest rate for most policy loans will stay at 6.50%. This applies to both new and existing policy loans, and automatic premium loans. It specifically applies to Equimax® policies with a 9-digit policy number that starts with either "3" or "8". Older policies may have different loan rates as they are based on the prime interest rate.

    *The dividend scale interest rate (DSIR) is different from the participating account (PAR) rate of return. The DSIR smooths out the ups and downs of the participating account experience. The PAR rate of return is the return on the investments in the participating account over the calendar year.

    Need more information?
    Did you miss our Spring Update & 2025 Dividend Scale Announcement?
    Watch it now:


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  10. Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin – May 2021

    In this issue:

    • Graduating dependents losing coverage?*  
    • New Brunswick expands the use of biosimilars*
    • Proposed changes to federal recovery and EI benefits*
    • Removal of plan administrator access to update plan member banking*
    • BioScript recognized as one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies*
    *Indicates content that will be shared with your clients
     

    Graduating dependents losing coverage?

    Let plan members know about Coverage2go

    As we reach the end of spring, some of your clients’ plan members may have dependents who are graduating from university or college and will no longer be eligible for coverage under the benefits plan.
     
    Fortunately, we offer Coverage2go®. It allows individuals who are losing their group coverage to purchase personal month-to-month health and dental coverage that is affordable, reliable and works like their previous group benefits plan. They can choose the level of coverage and protection that suits their personal situation.

    There are no medical questions – they simply need to apply within 60 days of losing their health coverage under their group benefits plan.*
     
    Help your plan members and their dependents who are losing coverage by letting them know about Coverage2go. They can visit our website to learn more about Coverage2go and to get a quote.
     
    *Quebec residents are not eligible for Coverage2go

    New Brunswick expands the use of biosimilars

    The New Brunswick government recently announced that it will be implementing a biosimilar transition program.
     
    Patients using originator biologic drugs for diseases such as inflammatory arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, diabetes and psoriasis, will have until November 30, 2021 to switch to the biosimilar version of their medications in order to maintain coverage under the province’s public drug plans. This process will be completed in consultation with the patients’ physicians.
     
    Biosimilars are highly similar to the drugs they are based on and Health Canada considers them to be equally safe and effective for approved conditions.

    Equitable Life® actively monitors and investigates all biosimilar policy changes and the ongoing evolution of biosimilar drugs entering Canada.  We will keep you informed of any impact on private drug plans and how we are responding.

    Proposed changes to federal recovery and EI benefits

    In its recent 2021 budget, the federal government proposed a variety of changes to its benefit programs.

    The proposed changes include providing up to 12 additional weeks of the Canada Recovery Benefit to a maximum of 50 weeks. The first 12 weeks of this benefit would be paid at $500 per week and the remaining eight weeks at $300 per week. 

    Multiple changes have also been proposed to make Employment Insurance (EI) more accessible to Canadians. The changes include: maintaining uniform access to EI benefits across all regions, supporting multiple job holders and those who switch jobs by ensuring that all insurable hours and employment count towards their eligibility, and simplifying many rules around EI to ensure Canadians can receive benefits sooner. It has also been proposed that the regular EI benefits be extended to no later than November 20, 2021, if needed.

    We are analyzing the impact these changes may have to disability benefits. We will provide more details later in the year. 

    Removal of plan administrator access to update plan member banking

    In early June, plan administrators will no longer be able to update banking information for their plan members on EquitableHealth.ca after their initial enrolment. This change has been made to allow plan members to have full control over where they want their claim payments deposited.

    Plan members can update their banking information online through their plan member web portal or through the EZClaim mobile app. They will continue to be notified via email if and when they make any changes.

    BioScript Solutions recognized as one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies

    Congratulations to our partner, BioScript Solutions, for being recognized as one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies of 2021 by Deloitte.
     
    We have partnered with BioScript since 2016 for our Specialty Drug Preferred Pharmacy Network (PPN). This partnership offers cost savings while providing comprehensive, best-in-class patient care.
     
    BioScript is one of Canada’s leading specialty pharmacies and recently celebrated its 20th anniversary.