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Canada Post Labour Strike: What you need to know
No postal service? No worries. Equitable^® has electronic options that make doing business with us easy and seamless and will help to prevent delays in the event of a postal strike.

Online tools for advisors through EquiNet^®(Login to EquiNet to access):

● Use EZcomplete^®to submit your individual wealth, individual life and critical illness insurance applications electronically.
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● Use EZ Upload to submit scanned applications though a secure online connection. Easily upload applications and related documents, all at the click of a button. EZ Upload saves you time and courier costs and can be used for your life insurance, critical illness and savings and retirement business.

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● Courier service: Contracts will continue to be sent via courier. Policy Disbursement cheques, cancellation letters, decline letters or cheques and other urgent correspondence will be couriered to the servicing MGA office for delivery/pickup. All other non-urgent correspondence will be held at Head Office.

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Date posted: September 26, 2025
Chinese Markets

Market Commentary April 2026

Key Takeaways

• Markets started 2026 constructively, with positive returns in both stock and bond markets in the first two months of the year. However, the war on Iran by the U.S. and Israel drove significant changes to markets in March. The biggest driver was the spike in oil prices. Oil prices increased over 70% during the quarter to over US$100 per barrel as 20% of global oil production became trapped in the Middle East when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
• Canadian equities returned 3.9% in the first quarter, outperforming U.S. equities which lost -4.3%. The Canadian market benefitted from its 40% exposure to strong performing Energy, Materials and Utilities sectors, which each gained over 10% in Q1. Conversely, the U.S. market has much less exposure to those strong performing sectors and therefore fell as geopolitical tensions weighed on performance of most other sectors.
• Canadian bonds posted modest gains as early-quarter strength was largely offset by March weakness. Rising commodity prices reignited inflation fears and prompted speculation for central bank interest rate hikes. Credit spreads widened as concerns regarding defaults and liquidity in the private credit market intensified.
• The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve held policy rates unchanged during the first quarter. Both central banks maintained a wait-and-see approach amid slowing labour markets, persistent inflation risks, and heightened global uncertainty.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: The U.S. economy continued to grow at a steady pace in the first quarter. Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target. The labour market showed signs of cooling as hiring slowed, but the unemployment rate remained stable. However, higher energy prices and risks to global supply chains added near term inflation pressures and weighed on the global outlook. The Federal Reserve held its policy interest rate unchanged during the quarter, maintaining the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Chair Powell highlighted ongoing uncertainty and reiterated that the Federal Reserve is well positioned to adjust policy as economic conditions evolve.

In Canada, economic growth remained subdued in the first quarter as excess supply persisted, and the labour market softened. Inflation stayed close to the 2.0% target, though rising global energy prices increased short term inflation risks. Trade uncertainty continued to weigh on confidence and business activity. The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate steady at 2.25% throughout the quarter. The Governing Council noted it stands ready to respond if the economic outlook shifts materially.

Bond Markets: The Canada Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.23% in the first quarter. A strong start to the year in January and February (+2.25%) was mostly offset by a weak March (-1.97%), as higher oil prices from the war in Iran led to higher interest rates on Canadian bonds (bond prices fall as interest rates go up). The increase in interest rates was most predominant in shorter term bonds, with higher oil prices driving inflation fears. These inflation fears reframed the market’s interest rate cut expectations for 2026: a 40% chance of an interest cut by the Bank of Canada has now shifted to a 70% chance of not just one, but two 25 basis point increases to the Bank of Canada overnight rate in 2026. In addition, the war in Iran has resulted in a higher risk premium for corporate bonds: credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) moved higher in March after reaching record low levels in January and February. These higher credit spreads resulted in corporate bonds modestly underperforming the overall index, albeit still with positive returns. Despite the modest risk off tone, investors remain buyers of corporate bonds as evidenced by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to set new records, with an impressive $50 billion in new issuance in the quarter, a record start to the year and 23% higher than the same period in 2025.

Stock Markets: The first quarter of 2026 marked a period of heightened investor caution with geopolitical tensions rising. Equity markets remained under pressure in March, as dip buyers remained cautious. Early market volatility was driven by several geopolitical developments, including Japan’s snap election, events in Venezuela, and U.S. interest in Greenland. Private credit markets also came under pressure as liquidity tightened and default risks increased, particularly in semi-liquid lending structures. The war on Iran raised concerns around demand destruction and inflation, pushing oil prices above US$100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. Gold continued to rise strongly early in the quarter. However, it later recorded its sharpest decline in years, driven by central bank selling. Despite this pullback, gold finished the quarter up 8% and continues to be viewed as a key safe-haven asset.

U.S. Equities: U.S. equities entered the first quarter with strong momentum, supported by robust earnings growth from technology companies. While earnings results confirmed this strength, investor sentiment weakened, particularly toward Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies. Rapid progress in AI agents developed by firms such as Anthropic and Google highlighted how quickly generative AI could automate core SaaS functions. As a result, software stocks sold off sharply in February, triggering a broader rotation away from largecap growth. Furthermore, tighter financial conditions and rising geopolitical tensions reduced risk tolerance and drove sharp sector rotation. The Energy sector led market performance, while Technology lagged and Financials underperformed due to stress in credit markets.

Canadian Equities: The Canadian stock market was supported by its high exposure to commodities. That structural tilt helped Canadian equities outperform U.S. equities as macro narratives shifted toward inflation concerns and supply risks. Performance during the quarter was marked by a sharp whipsaw between gold and oil, reflecting shifting investor sentiment. Investors sold gold aggressively and scrambled to source U.S. dollars as financial conditions tightened. Conversely, oil prices rose sharply on Middle East supply disruptions, lifting Energy stocks to become the strongest-performing sector of the quarter, up 29%.

Bottom line: The first quarter showed how quickly geopolitical shocks can reshape sectors’ performance. Canada outperformed U.S. growth markets due to its higher exposure to commodities, as energy prices rose and inflation concerns returned. The sharp move in gold and oil prices highlighted the market’s sensitivity to macro developments. The war against Iran forced investors to reprice both inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Looking ahead, geopolitical stability, energy prices, and central bank policy are likely to remain key drivers of market performance and sector leadership.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Investments	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Investments	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Public Investments	Jin Li Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM Sr. Quantitative Analyst	Andrew Vermeer, CFA Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Edward Ng Cheng Hin Analyst, Credit	Kate (Huyen) Vinh Analyst, Equity	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Except for statements of historical fact, all statements in this document are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s current best judgment as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may be materially different from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions, or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained in this document. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and to not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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EAMG Market Commentary April 2024 April 2024

Rates & Credit – Interest rates increased in Q1 2024, giving back half of the decline experienced in Q4 2023 amid consistently positive surprises in U.S. economic data. The positive economic news also drove a strong risk-on tone to the market, with the risk premium on corporate bonds tightening as economic prospects improved. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index (FTSE) with a slightly positive 0.07% return, verses a loss of 1.66% in government bonds and a loss of 1.22% for the overall index. More interest rate sensitive long-term bonds experienced the largest decline, which was partially offset in corporate bonds by the risk-on tone to corporate bond spreads. On a 6-month and 1-year basis, the FTSE remained positive at 6.94% and 2.10%, respectively. Within corporate bonds, lower-rated BBBs outperformed higher-rated A bonds, while industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications underperformed those with less exposure (notably financials and securitization).

Equity Overview – Throughout Q1 2024, concerns about a recession gradually eased as central bankers adopted a more accommodative outlook on monetary policy. Their growing dovishness reflected confidence that the restrictive monetary measures were effectively curbing inflation as anticipated. Underpinned by prospects of an economic soft-landing, global equity markets rallied to start the year with most major North American indices soaring to new all-time highs during the quarter. U.S. equities continued to outperform other major international markets with the S&P 500 returning 10.6% in USD terms. Major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) gained 10.1% in local currency terms, while the TSX added 6.6%. Furthermore, the U.S. economy continued to prove more resilient than most major developed economies, with strong employment and robust output data. As such, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities achieved enhanced returns, benefitting from a stronger Greenback.

U.S. Fundamentals – Corporate earnings beat expectations in Q4 2023, triggering a wave of upward earnings revision. Stable operating margins, cash flows and debt loads continue to attract investors into equities. Investors appear focused on the company’s ability to sustain debt levels ahead of renewing debt obligations. We observed that the number of major companies that expect improving financial performance shrunk to ~19%. This suggests that concentration risks are likely brewing in the equity market, yet again.

U.S. Quant Factors
Optimistic run-up in equity valuations were mostly driven by the momentum factor. A basket of companies with positive price trends intensified concentration risk in the equity market. We note that momentum factor’ performance sharply contrasted fundamental factors, making us cautious on the market’s complacency. For context, high quality companies, which is typically defined by high Return on Equity (ROE), stable earnings variability, and low financial leverage, placed second in our risk-adjusted performance rankings, and is dwarfed by the ~ 17.9% return observed from the momentum factor.

Canadian Fundamentals – Against the backdrop of underwhelming financial results, ROE – a gauge of how efficiently a corporation generates profits – rebounded in Q4, 2023, after declining throughout most of the year. The improved efficiency metric provided a positive catalyst for dividend investors as the inverse movements of ROE relative to financing costs over 2023 kept investors on the sidelines. In addition, the CRB Raw Industrials Index, a measure of price changes of basic commodities, broke out of recent ranges, providing a tailwind for Canada’s energy and materials sector. Concerns with earnings contraction and macro-economic conditions have subsided.

Canadian Quant Factors – Crude prices soared higher in Q1 2024, with ongoing production cuts from OPEC+ and ramifications of geopolitical conflicts keeping oil markets undersupplied. As such, energy companies benefitted, surging higher and outperforming the broader index, while the low volatility basket – with lower exposure to cyclically sensitive business – underperformed into quarter end. Furthermore, Canadian banks underperformed to start the quarter, giving back some of the sharp outperformance witnessed into the end of Q4 2023. That said, soft inflation data increased expectations of impending rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and, as such, banks performed in line with the broader market throughout most of the quarter. Underpinned by expectations of a dovish switch in monetary policy, investors rewarded dividend payers with a history of increasing dividends, boosting confidence in their ability to support future dividend growth. It is important to note that investors should not let dividend growth’s outperformance overshadow high dividend paying companies’ underperformance; more specifically, investors remain attentive to the businesses’ ability to create value relative to financing costs.

Views From the Frontline

Rates – Interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. increased across all bond tenors in Q1 2024. U.S. inflation data surprised to the upside, remaining stubbornly higher than hoped, while labour market and consumer indicators underscored the economy's continued strength. In Canada, inflation data fell below forecasts, but early 2024 GDP readings exceeded expectations. The market now anticipates a 'soft landing' for the U.S. economy; however, the Canadian economy continues to slow. North American central banks have signaled that we are at the peak for policy rates. The market is currently pricing in approximately two-to-three, 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in the second half of 2024, much fewer than the six-to-seven 25 basis point interest rate cuts that the market had been anticipating even just three months ago. As the Swiss central bank led the way with the first rate cut among developed countries, central banks in major developed economies will closely monitor upcoming data and market developments to determine the timing and pace for rate cuts.

Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) continued to tighten over the quarter, with a strong risk-on tone to the market as investors priced in renewed economic growth in 2024 as compared to previous expectations. Corporate bond supply was robust, with $38.2bn in new issuance, the second strongest first quarter on record. On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable.

Equity – We favour a combination of the Dow Jones and the S&P500 for our broad market exposure. The Dow, a price-weighted index, should have some value and low volatility tilt as it tracks mature large companies. As explained above, concentration risks are brewing in the equity market, and during Q1 this risk was exacerbated by investors rushing into a basket of companies with positive price trends, thereby pushing valuation metrics further into the expensive territory. In our view, it is well-suited to use a combination of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 for broad U.S. market exposure given the heightened concentration risk. Looking forward, we expect companies to exhibit stable operating margins and therefore, we are shifting our focus toward the balance between upcoming corporate debt refinancing requirements and reinvestment in projects intended to drive future growth. In plain words, we are tactically adding to companies with stable cash flows and decreased debt loads outside of the mega-cap group. In Canada, we expect a modest earnings growth and remain attentive to how efficiently a corporation generates profits relative to their financing cost. We caution against the overly optimistic, commodity driven, “catch-up” trade vs. our southern neighbour. Therefore, we tweaked our investment strategy by rotating out of the low volatility factor and adding to higher yielding quality companies in Canada.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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