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EAMG Market Commentary July 2023
Posted July 27, 2023
July 17, 2023
Rates & Credit - The rates market was volatile in Q2 as investors focused on inflation, central bank interest rate decisions, and recession probabilities. Persistent strength in U.S. consumer spending and labour markets have surprised investors and prompted further interest rate tightening from central banks. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index during the quarter, with a total return of 0.2%, versus a loss of 1.0% for government bonds and 0.7% for the overall Index. The corporate bond outperformance was driven by a broad risk-on tone to the market, most notably in April as the market recovered from the banking sector liquidity crisis that developed during March. That said, the market tone remained cautious, with the improved risk premium on corporate bonds tempered by lingering concerns around sticky inflation, high interest rates, and the potential for slower economic growth into the latter half of the year.
Dominance of U.S. Equities – U.S. equity markets posted another strong quarter with the S&P 500 returning 8.7%, outperforming Canada and other major international equity markets. The S&P/TSX Composite, returned 1.2% in CAD. Major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) returned 3.2% in local currency terms. The highly anticipated re-opening of the Chinese economy has failed to materialize with economic data indicating less strength than previously forecasted. Amid sluggish Chinese growth, closely interconnected economic partners such as the European Union, as well as commodity-driven markets like Canada, have all underperformed the U.S. on a relative basis.
U.S. Fundamentals – Earnings continued to contract versus prior year, albeit at a slower pace than forecasted. Forward earnings guidance improved quarter-over-quarter with corporate sentiment returning to neutral levels. Based on our analysis, we observed that 31% of major companies expect deteriorating financial performance, while 33% expect improved performance, with the remaining expecting no material change. Overall, major U.S. companies remain well capitalized with strong operating margins. However, company guidance indicates a prioritization of cost controls amid increased consumer indebtedness and concerns about the health of the consumer.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Mania – Despite concerns that the U.S. economy is at a late stage in its economic cycle, that monetary tightening by central banks could go too far, and the fact that earnings contracted on a year-over-year basis, equity markets became more expensive during the quarter with price-to-earnings multiples expanding. This expansion was driven by investors crowding into AI focused technology companies, with the seven largest AI/technology themed companies averaging a 26% return while the other 493 members gained only 3%. Investors rewarded businesses with contributions to AI development (hardware and software components), as well as those with the ability to implement synergies from leveraging the technology. A crowded market surge is not uncommon at this point in the economic cycle, where positive economic surprises, in this instance, strong employment and consumer spending can lead to an upswelling in investor confidence.
U.S. Quant Factors – Using our investment framework, we currently favour exposures to large cash-rich companies with innovative product offerings, which we believe offer the strongest risk-adjusted returns in the current market environment. While the valuation of AI companies seems to defy traditional rationales, the momentum has continued to push the group higher. Consequently, the Quality factor (companies with higher return-on-equity, strong operating performance, and healthy leverage levels) participated in the AI trend and consistently outperformed throughout the quarter. The Low Volatility factor (stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement, and lower price volatility) underperformed through the quarter. While the Low Volatility factor typically performs well at this stage of the economic cycle, the fact that a small number of stocks were responsible for much of the market’s return hurt this factor. Lastly, the Momentum factor (stocks with a recent history of price appreciation) initially underperformed during the quarter before rebounding in June. This factor’s recent outperformance suggests that the market is becoming complacent and possibly signals that rotations within the market are slowing as current trends remain in favour.
Canadian Fundamentals – Top line revenue missed forecasts while bottom line earnings were consistent with expectations. Softer-than-expected results out of Canadian financials, as well as underwhelming results from the materials sector, dragged on the aggregate index performance. Earnings forecasts for the rest of the year have been revised downward with analyst expecting index aggregate earnings to detract 2% to 3%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.75% on the backdrop of robust economic data releases including Q1 GDP and April CPI.
Canadian Quant Factors – The most notable dislocation in Canada was the convergence of the dividend yield of High-Dividend ETFs and Equal-Weight Bank ETFs. We believe that the drag from Canadian banks following the U.S. regional banking concerns in March resulted in a discount of the Quality factor as the performance of the group is sensitive to the movements of banks. While banks did recover around 35% of their SVB-induced underperformance, the nature of banking has attracted investor scrutiny given the view that we are in the late-stage of the economic cycle. That said, this environment is an attractive environment to add variants of the Quality factor, which would gain exposure to a rebounding industry that offers a similar dividend yield to the high dividend stocks.
Views From the Frontline
Rates – On an outright basis, bond yields across the curve continue to look attractive. Economic data remains strong however we are beginning to see the first signs of weakness in spending, jobs and inflation. Slower growth, a more balanced labour market, declining inflation, and tighter credit conditions will likely drive interest rates lower throughout 2023. Market participants remain focused on the extent of interest rate hikes and the duration of a pause required to bring inflation back to the 2% target. With inflation remaining more persistent than previously expected forecasts around the timing, pace and extent of the removal of monetary policy have been pushed into 2024.
Credit – The uncertain economic outlook and risks around slower economic growth later this year merit caution about corporate bonds and a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we think the risk / reward dynamic are more favourable. That said, the “soft-landing” narrative, now more pervasive in the market, could continue to provide support to risk assets, which we view as an opportunity to further pare down higher beta exposure.
Equities – Given the direction of the current economic and company fundamental data, we continue to favour high quality growth segments of the market with strong operating margins. As such, the late cycle conditions in the market reinforce our preference for large cap stocks over smaller, more U.S. domestically focused businesses. The U.S. Low Volatility factor’s underperformance is unlikely to reverse in the short term given the resilience of the U.S. economy. Furthermore, after a steep decline last quarter, we expect that cyclical value will find support in the near term, echoing the increased chance of slowing inflation without stalling economic growth. In Canada, equities are typically more cyclical in nature, which coupled with the potential for an earnings contraction, makes us view the Low Volatility factor as more likely to outperform. Like the U.S., we prefer Canadian high-quality companies to navigate through the late cycle environment. On the heels of poor Chinese economic data and underwhelming stimulus, we are maintaining our overweight to the U.S. relative to Canada and EAFE.
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ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. -
EZtransact enhancements: New “Internal Transfer” and “Other Institution” options
At Equitable®, we’re always looking for ways to make it easier to support clients. That’s why we’re excited to share new enhancements in EZtransact® that give you more flexibility and simplify transfer processes.
What’s new
As of January 22, EZtransact now offers:
• Internal Transfers that streamline digital movement of investments between eligible client accounts within Individual Wealth.
• An “Other Institution” option when you’re initiating an external transfer. This means you can request transfers from financial institutions that are not listed in our existing dropdown menu.
These enhancements remove the need for manual workarounds and help ensure transfers are captured clearly and accurately the first time.
These updates support:
• Advisors working with Individual Wealth clients
• Clients who need to move investments either within Equitable or from another financial institution
To transfer funds between existing Equitable contracts, simply go to EZtransact, select Make a Transfer on the policy you want to receive the funds, and view your client’s existing contracts all in one place.
Use the new “Other Institution” option to start transfers from any financial institution, even if it’s not part of the standard list.
You’ll see these enhancements in the “Make a Transfer” flow within EZtransact on EquiNet®. It appears right at the point where you select the financial institution for the transfer.
These updates are designed to:
• Give you more flexibility when managing external transfers
• Remove the need for manual steps or workaround solutions
• Help reduce errors that can happen during manual processing
• Improve efficiency for you and deliver a smoother experience for clients
You asked, and we listened! Keep providing us with your feedback on our digital tools. When we grow together, success is mutual. Get to know EZtransact! If you have any questions, please contact your Director, Investment Sales.
Date posted: April 1, 2026 -
Repositioned Wealth Accumulator available
Repositioned Equimax Wealth available now
As we continue to grow to meet the needs of various market segments, our product options for your high net worth (HNW) clients have also been improved. Equimax Wealth Accumulator® has been repositioned to meet the needs of your high net worth clients by providing more deposit room and competitive early cash values.
Equimax Wealth is now repositioned for your high net worth clients
Equimax Wealth Accumulator is now targeted for clients ages 45 to 65 with an insurance need but also looking for tax advantaged growth as an alternative to traditional investments. It allows your clients to achieve both while diversifying their portfolio and saving taxes, particularly for corporations.
Highlights of the repositioned Equimax Wealth Accumulator:
- More deposit room - Allows for significantly more deposit room by reducing the initial death benefit. This means more money can be paid into the policy to promote the tax-advantaged investment growth.
- Higher early cash surrender values - We are more competitive on total cash value in years 1 to 10 in the target market ages of 45-65. The higher extra deposit room and early surrender cash value allows the illustration to show an earlier premium offset, which is key for the HNW market.
- More competitive on life pay - Improvements to life pay more notable than 20 pay. Reduced premiums for most male and female non-smokers in our target market (ages 45-65) as well as 2, 3, and 4 year improvement in illustration of premium offset.
- More competitive at older ages - A shift in the target market means you can support older clients in the HNW market. The Equimax Wealth Accumulator is now more competitive at ages 45-65.
Learn more
For full details on the transition, please see our transition rules.
For more information on this product, please visit the Equimax page on Equinet.
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Exciting update: External transfer now available on EZtransact!
We are thrilled to announce a new feature that will make your work easier and more efficient.
What’s new this quarter?
The External Transfer function was introduced to Equitable’s EZtransact® on May 14.
Benefits of this enhancement:
This feature is part of our strategic plan to help make transactions smoother for you. It was already available in EZcomplete®, and now it’s on EZtransact too. This means you won’t have to search for information about the relinquishing institution anymore. You can submit requests with ease.
External Transfer Functionality:If you have any questions, reach out to your Director, Investment Sales.
• You can digitally request a transfer of funds from other institutions to Equitable.
• Information about the relinquishing institution will be available on EZtransact, so you don’t have to search for it.
• Both full and partial transfer requests are available.
• It’s available for registration types that don’t need the RC720/RC721 form and for individual accounts.
When we work together, success is mutual.
Date posted: July 3, 2025 - [pdf] Excelerator deposit option Q&A
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EquiLiving offers more options to clients facing a covered Critical Illness condition
Consider these statistics…1 in 2 Canadians will develop cancer in their lifetimes1. They’re just numbers…until the day someone you know is diagnosed, someone who didn’t see it coming. Then it becomes very real - no longer incidence statistics, but costs. Today more people than ever are surviving and living with not only just the physical, but also the financial effects of their illness.
We’re there to help when illness strikes
NEW! EquiLiving® plans and riders have recently been enhanced including:
● 20 pay options with coverage to age 75 or coverage for life
● Support from Cloud DX to help monitor a client’s well-being from treatment to recovery.
● Added Acquired Brain Injury as a covered critical condition
● 30-day survival period removed for all non-cardiovascular covered conditions
● No age restriction to claim for Loss of Independent Existence (LOIE)
● EquiLiving Benefit now pays the higher of the EquiLiving Benefit or the Return of Premium Rider Benefit (not including Return of Premium on Death)
● And so much more …
Learn more
● CI product enhancement video
● Visit our launch event page with product change details and more
● Marketing Materials
Please contact your Regional Sales Manager for more information.
1 www.cancer.ca