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Market Commentary January 2025
Key Takeaways
Full year 2024:
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Despite reductions of policy-setting interest rates by central banks, yields on longer-term bonds finished the year higher than they started the year.
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Positive risk appetite helped corporate bonds perform well, led by lower-quality issuers.
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Global equity markets posted robust returns, with U.S. equities outperforming other developed markets, driven by heavy concentration into the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks.
Fourth Quarter:
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Central banks continued to ease monetary policy in Q4, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy interest rate more aggressively than did the U.S. Federal Reserve.
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The Republican victory across both the executive and legislative branches in the U.S. ignited expectations of economic growth, pushing bond yields and stock prices higher.
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Risk sentiment helped corporate bonds continue to outperform government bonds.
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Markets remained volatile: while North American stock markets continued to outperform most international indices, Canadian stocks managed to outperform U.S. stocks in Q4, as sources of returns in the U.S. narrowed into year-end.
Economic and Market Update
Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace in Q4. The rate of inflation continued to slow but remained above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, as the unemployment rate has remained low compared to historical norms. A decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party further boosted expectations for continued growth. The return of the President-elect’s old tactics of threatening tariffs to influence trade, security, and drug control re-introduced some economic uncertainty, particularly regarding the potential return of inflationary pressures. Those concerns prompted the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its policy easing, as it lowered rates by just 0.25% at each of its two meetings in Q4, following the 0.50% cut in September. Throughout 2024, the Fed reduced rates by a total of 100 basis points, from 5.50% to 4.50%. Nonetheless, bond yields were significantly higher for most maturity terms during the fourth quarter as the market priced in not just a stronger economy than had been the expectation during Q3, implying less interest rate cuts by the Fed, but also growing concerns about the government deficit.
In Canada, growth remained positive during 2024 and improved a bit to close the year, but continued to fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations. Similarly, inflation came in lower than expected and below the Bank’s 2% target. The labour market continued to soften for much of the year, with employment growth falling short of labour force growth. The weakness in the labour market and economy, along with tamed inflation, prompted the Central Bank to cut rates at the pace of 50 basis points at each of its two meetings in Q4. For the full year, the Bank of Canada ended up lowering its policy rate by a total of 175 basis points, from 5% to 3.25%. The market has been expecting the Bank of Canada to need to continue cutting rates due to slower economic growth in Canada, but the fear of a possible trade war with the U.S. has made the economic outlook somewhat murkier.
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Bond Markets: During the quarter, yields on mid- to long-term bonds in Canada rose in sympathy with rising bond yields in the U.S. However, bond yields in Canada rose to a lesser extent, and yields on shorter-term bonds were actually little changed over the quarter. The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was basically flat during Q4 and posted a return of 4.2% for the full year. Although interest rates rose, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to grind lower, helping corporate bonds post positive overall returns in the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels similar to those experienced in 2021, when markets did quite well after the pandemic. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continued to be very robust in the quarter, with $30 billion in new issuance, resulting in a record-breaking year with $141 billion of new issuance in 2024. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.
Stock Markets – Overview: Trump’s presidential victory and the Republican party’s ‘red sweep’ in the Senate and House of Representatives sparked optimism surrounding economic growth and a new era of U.S. exceptionalism. As a result, North American equity markets extended their rally in Q4, capping off a year of robust returns. The S&P 500 returned 2.4%, bringing its year-to-date return to 25%. Within the U.S., the broadening of returns paused during the quarter as the chase for growth intensified, with mega-cap growth names like Tesla driving performance. Canadian equities surprisingly outperformed the U.S. market over the quarter, returning 3.8% in Q4, despite threats of widespread tariff negotiations looming on the horizon that could negatively impact Canadian corporate fundamentals. At a sector level, strength in the technology, financials, and energy sectors more than offset weakness in telecommunication companies as well as in the materials sector. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) underperformed last quarter as deteriorating Chinese growth prospects and weak economic growth in the Eurozone weighed on equities. Notably, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities benefitted from a rebounding U.S. dollar with the dollar index adding over 7.6% in Q4.
U.S. Equities: U.S. equities remain supported by resilient margins and strong corporate earnings growth with over 70% of businesses surpassing bottom-line expectations last quarter. We remain attentive to the broadening of earnings performance and note that this trend has continued, albeit at a normalized pace versus prior quarters. More specifically, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000, excluding the Magnificent 7, posted median earnings growth of 6% last quarter, down from nearly 9% in Q3 but comparable to Q2 (6%). Looking forward to 2025, analysts continue to forecast U.S. exceptionalism, with forecasts of ~12% earnings growth.
Following Trump’s presidential victory, stocks with greater sensitivity to the U.S. economy, such as small cap businesses, benefitted from expectations of domestically focused growth initiatives. However, stubborn inflation and expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the trend of broadening sources of returns pause into the end of the year. Instead, market concentration reaccelerated with investors rushing back towards mega-cap growth stocks. In fact, Tesla – which is approximately 2% of the S&P 500 Index by market cap – contributed approximately one-third of the total index return in Q4, while the Mag 7 as a group contributed over 100% of total returns. In other words, U.S. large cap companies excluding the Magnificent 7 declined in aggregate last quarter.
Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of cooling inflation and below-trend growth, the Bank of Canada continued to loosen monetary policy. As a result, Canadian companies
showed signs of improving efficiency with return on equity – a gauge of corporate profitability – improving versus prior quarters. Under these conditions, investors remained focused on higher quality, high-dividend paying companies – particularly within the financial sector. Relative to prior quarters, this group witnessed greater contribution out of non-bank financials (such as asset managers and insurance companies), as the premium investors were willing to pay for Canadian banks remained elevated. Across other sectors, the energy sector had a positive quarter as the price of oil stabilized, but falling prices for raw industrials pushed the materials sector lower.
Bottom line: U.S. political developments and subsequent growth expectations dominated market sentiment last quarter. As a result, investors dialed back rate cut expectations and bond yields moved higher. In equity markets, the potential for an era of higher-for-longer rates prompted a resumption of investors crowding into growth stocks. Going forward, we remain cautious of elevated valuations and continue to prioritize diversified sources of returns with a long-term outlook. Nonetheless, despite rich valuations, our base case remains that investors’ enthusiasm for equities will persist in the near-term and stocks should continue to outperform bonds.
Downloadable Copy
ADVISOR USE ONLYMark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public Portfolio ManagementIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public Portfolio ManagementJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Portfolio ManagementJin Li
Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA
Senior Analyst, Equity
Andrew Vermeer
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
Francie Chen
Analyst, Rates
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin – November 2020
In this issue:
- Telemedicine now included in Travel Assist*
- Take advantage of our convenient digital options*
- 2021 changes to Maximum Insurable Earnings, Maximum Weekly Insurable Earnings and Short Term Disability Benefit*
*Indicates content that will be shared with your clients
Telemedicine now included in Travel Assist*
Medical emergencies can be particularly stressful while travelling. Making your way to a medical facility can be a struggle. And once you get there, you could face long wait times, language barriers or even the risk of COVID-19 infection.
That’s why Allianz Global Assistance®, our Travel Assist provider, is adding two new virtual care options to provide plan members with timely and appropriate medical support.
As always, when a travel medical emergency strikes, plan members call Allianz for assistance. During the intake process plan members will be guided through a series of questions to triage their unique medical situation. Options for care now include two different virtual care services:
- TeleConsultation – Video and chat consultation with a locally licensed physician. This physician can diagnose simple medical conditions and provide a prescription. Available across Canada and in some high travel states in the United States.
- TeleAdvice – Video and chat consultation for situations which are not likely to require a prescription. The physician can diagnose simple medical conditions and provide medical guidance.
Plan members who use virtual care may benefit from:
- Reduced wait times;
- Care from the comfort of their current location;
- Reduced language barriers;
- No need to arrange transportation to a medical facility;
- Reduced impact on travel itinerary; and
- Reduced risk of exposure.
Both TeleConsultation and TeleAdvice will be available for all Equitable Life plan members beginning January 1st, 2021. There is no additional cost, no changes required to your client’s plans, and no change to the way plan members contact Allianz in the event of a travel medical emergency.
This PDF plan member update will also be included in the eNews to plan administrators.
If you have any questions about these new features, please contact your Equitable Life Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
Allianz Global Assistance is a registered business name of AZGA Service Canada Inc. and AZGA Insurance Agency Canada Ltd.
Help your clients take advantage of our convenient digital options*
During this time of physical distancing, people are looking for ways to interact with their providers virtually. We recently enhanced our Online Plan Member Enrolment tool, allowing all groups to add new plan members without the need for paper forms.
Did you know, we have several other digital options available to make it easier for your clients to do business with us and for their plan members to access and use their benefits plan? Over 71% of plan administrators are managing their plan online and 78% of plan members are already using our digital tools.
For plan administrators:
- Plan Administrator Portal (EquitableHealth.ca) – plan administrators can easily manage their plan anytime and anywhere
- Digital Welcome Kits – personalized welcome kits are delivered to plan members via email
- Easy automated payments – plan administrators can avoid missed payments by setting up pre-authorized debit or electronic funds transfer
For plan members:
- Plan Member Portal (EquitableHealth.ca) – plan members get secure, 24/7 access to their claims history, coverage details and health and wellness resources
- Electronic Claim Payments and Notifications – plan members can get claim updates sooner in their email inbox and payments right into their bank account
- EZClaim Mobile App – submitting claims from a mobile device is fast, easy and secure
- Digital Benefits Cards – plan members no longer have to dig through their wallet – they can download their benefits card on their mobile device
Learn more about how we’re making it easier for your clients to do business with us
2021 changes to Maximum Insurable Earnings, Maximum Weekly Insurable Earnings and Short Term Disability Benefit*
The Canada Employment Insurance Commission and Canada Revenue Agency have announced the 2021 changes to Maximum Insurable Earnings, and premiums for employment insurance. These changes take effect January 1st, 2021.
Maximum Insurable Earnings (MIE)
The MIE will increase from $54,200 to $56,300.
Maximum Weekly Insurable Earnings (MWIE)
The MWIE will increase from $1,042 to $1,083.
EI Benefit (55% of the MWIE, rounded to the nearest dollar)
EI benefit will increase from $573 to $595
Information for Plan sponsors
If your client’s Group Policy with Equitable Life includes a Short Term Disability (STD) benefit which is tied to the EI MWIE, and at least one classification of employees has less than a $595 maximum:
- To comply with the provisions of their policy, their STD benefit will be revised with the maximums updated based on the percentage of EI MEIW shown in their policy.
- The additional premium for any increase from their previous STD amounts and new STD amounts will be show on their January 2021 Group Insurance Billing (as applicable).
If their STD maximum is currently higher than $595 or based on a flat amount (not based on a percentage or regular earnings):
- No change will be made to their plan unless otherwise directed.
If your clients wish to provide direction regarding revising their STD maximum, or have questions about the process, they can email Kari Gough, Manager, Group Quotes and Issue.
*Indicates content that will be shared with your clients
- [pdf] Plan Administrator Guide to EZBenefits
- Compensation Inquiry
- Financial planning concepts & tools
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Extending premium relief for Dental and Extended Health Care benefits
We know this continues to be a challenging time for Canadian employers and we remain committed to looking for ways to help your clients manage while still supporting their employees.
Although many health practitioners have re-opened as pandemic restrictions are lifted, plan member use of dental benefits and some health benefits still remains lower than normal in June.
We are pleased to announce that we are extending premium relief for all Traditional and myFlex insured non-refund customers for Health and Dental benefits for the month of June, as follows:
- A 25% reduction on Dental premiums; and
- A 5% reduction on Extended Health Care premiums.
These reductions are effective for June 2020 and will appear as a credit on the July bill, or against the next available billing. We will assess the situation monthly and will continue with monthly refunds for as long as the current crisis period continues. The size of the credit may change over time as dentists and other health practitioners gradually reopen their offices. We will confirm premium credits for July (if any) at a later date. Credits for subsequent months will be communicated on a month-by-month basis.
In order to be eligible for the monthly credit calculation and payout, a policy must be in force on the first of the month and remain in force thereafter. The monthly credit calculation is based on employees in force on the June bill. If employees experienced layoffs during the month, that would not affect eligibility for a premium credit as long as the benefit itself is not terminated.
We expect that claims experience and premiums will return to normal once the current pandemic restrictions are lifted.
In the meantime, plan members will continue to have full access to their benefits coverage throughout the pandemic. In many cases, dental offices have remained open for emergency services, and a variety of healthcare providers are available virtually.
Commissions
We know the pandemic has put financial strain on your business as well, so we will continue to pay full compensation. Although your overall commission will be unaffected by these premium reduction adjustments, you may see a temporary reduction in your commission payments if you are on a pay-as-earned basis.
Communication
We will be communicating this premium relief program to your clients later this week.
Questions?
If you have any questions, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager. You can also refer to our online COVID-19 Group Benefits FAQ.
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Coming March 23, 2020 – Equimax enhancements include 60 months of flexibility to make extra deposits
The following features will be available on Equimax Estate Builder® and Equimax Wealth Accumulator® plans!
60 months of Excelerator Deposit Option (EDO) flexibility- Up to 60 months to make initial EDO payment or resume stopped or reduced payments. No additional underwriting required.
- For approved EDO amounts exceeding $150,000 annually ($12,500 monthly), clients have up to 12 months from the date the EDO application was signed or the date of the last EDO payment to make an EDO payment before a contribution cap may apply.
- Available on all policies with an effective date of March 23, 2020 or later.

EDO available on case ratings of 300% or less- If a policy already in effect has a rating over 200% and up to and including 300%, the owner can apply to add EDO provided the policy was issued under the 2017 tax rules.
- Additional underwriting and submission of satisfactory evidence may be required.
Disability Benefit Disbursement at no extra cost
- If a life insured becomes disabled from a severe mental or physical impairment as defined in the policy contract, the owner may apply for a tax-free,* lump sum payment of up to 100% of the policy’s cash value.
- Exclusions apply. See sample policy contract for full details, including the qualifications for the disbursement.
- Available on all policy issued under the 2017 tax rules.
* Tax laws are subject to change. The payment of the disability benefit disbursement may affect the adjusted cost basis (ACB) of the policy as it is considered payment of a capital benefit. Changes in ACB can affect the future taxation of the policy.Processing your Application
To make the transition as smooth as possible, please take a moment to review the following transition rules.
- [pdf] A better group benefits experience