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Market Comments - October 2024
Key Takeaways for Q3· Central banks eased monetary policy by reducing their target interest rates.
· Bond markets performed very well during the quarter as interest rates fell.
· Risk markets experienced some volatility, but stock markets had robust returns.
· Canadian stocks outperformed U.S. stocks in Q3, while the sources of returns in the U.S. market were more balanced and diversified than in the first half of the year.
Views From the Frontline
Bond Markets: During the third quarter, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. moved significantly lower as markets anticipated that the Bank of Canada would continue – and the Federal Reserve would start – cutting rates. Additionally, the expectation became that the central banks would end up lowering rates more aggressively than previously assumed. That’s because inflation data has softened sufficiently to give the central banks the scope to ease policy, and other economic data, especially from the labour market, indicated the need for them to ease policy in order to prevent economic activity from cooling too much. For instance, in Canada, inflation slowed to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, while the labour market showed warning signs with the unemployment rate rising to 6.6%. The Bank of Canada cut its target interest rate by 0.25% at each of its July and September meetings. Governor Macklem indicated that if growth does not materialize as expected, “it could be appropriate to move faster on interest rates”. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve kicked off its easing cycle by cutting its target rate by 0.50% in September. The growing signs of a cooling labour market amidst slowing inflation motivated the larger-than-typical move. That said, consumer spending in the U.S. continued to be strong, and GDP is still tracking a healthy growth rate.
While interest rates fell, bonds returns were also boosted by solid behaviour of corporate bonds. Credit spreads (i.e. the risk premium for corporate bonds versus government bonds) continued to grind lower over the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels that are largely consistent with the tight post-pandemic levels experienced in 2021. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to be very robust, with $29B (billion) in new issuance during the quarter, resulting in an impressive $119B issued year-to-date, a new record. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.
Stock Markets: In the U.S., we continue to caution against heavily concentrated sources of market returns and emphasize a diversified portfolio. Last quarter, diversification proved essential as a multitude of factors heightened market volatility. These factors – which included the unwind of the yen carry trade, investor reactions to mixed mega-cap earnings, and concerns of a slowing labour market – drove investors away from mega-cap technology names and into defensive areas of the market. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates by 0.5%, sources of investment returns continued to broaden as investors rotated into economically-sensitive baskets. Underpinned by decelerating inflation and easing monetary policy, we believe the rotation away from the mega-cap tech names is likely to persist and we continue to emphasize portfolio diversification. In Canada, high-quality, high-yielding businesses – composed of the financial sector and non-financial dividend payers – outperformed over the quarter as investors rewarded companies that demonstrated a strong ability to sustain dividends, as well as greater efficiency generating profits. While we continue to favour these businesses, we have taken profit on our financial sector dividend exposure after a sharp reversion in the premium between value creation and current yield. In addition, Chinese officials introduced a wave of stimulus to revitalize growth, bringing life back to the metals and luxury goods sectors. Accordingly, Canadian and European equities have benefitted recently.
Market Update
Rates & Credit: In Q3, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. decreased significantly, with front-end interest rates declining faster than long-end interest rates amid cooling inflation and a weakening labour market. As a result, the FTSE Canada Universe Index posted a positive return of 4.7%. Coincidentally, Canadian corporate bonds and government bonds each also generated returns of 4.7%, totally in-line with the Universe index. On the other hand, despite short-term interest rates falling much more than long-term interest rates, the higher price sensitivity of long-dated bonds had them outperform shorter-dated bonds, with the Long-Term bond index up 5.8% while the Short-Term bond index gained 3.4%. Similarly, within corporate bonds, industries that have longer-dated debt (e.g. energy and infrastructure) outperformed those that tend to have shorter-dated debt (e.g. real estate and financials).
Equity Overview: Underpinned by decelerating inflation data and easing monetary policy – including the outsize 50-basis cut from the Federal Reserve – prospects for an economic soft landing increased over the quarter. That favourable outlook spurred global equity markets to all-time highs, with previously lagging areas of the market narrowing the performance gap compared to the U.S. mega-cap technology names that had led returns in the first half of the year. Canadian equities outperformed their U.S. counterpart last quarter, rising 10.5% as strength in the banking and materials sectors pushed the index higher. Major developed markets from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) were more subdued, gaining 0.9% (in local currency terms) last quarter. That said, grand expectations for further interest rate cuts in the U.S. pushed the greenback to its lowest level in over a year, boosting EAFE returns to over 7% in U.S. dollar terms. Within the U.S., sources of market returns broadened as well, with investors rotating out of concentrated AI companies and into more economically sensitive businesses.
U.S. Fundamentals: Outside of the Magnificent 7, investors are interpreting downside earnings surprises as a normalization of financial performance rather than a deterioration. For example, McDonald’s share price rallied over 17% into quarter-end following its earnings release despite announcing declining sales and contracting earnings per share. Within the AI-ecosystem, investors are beginning to look for opportunities beyond chip manufacturers, such as nuclear energy providers. At an index level, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000 index, excluding the Mag-7, posted a median earnings growth of nearly 9% year-over-year, expanding from the ~6% witnessed in Q2. Furthermore, the number of companies from this group reporting positive earnings growth grew to approximately 67%, up from 60% in the prior quarter. In our view, the ongoing broadening of earnings strength outside of the Mag-7 can provide tailwinds to current market rotations into previously left-behind companies. Within the mega-cap tech space, investors have become more discriminant than in prior quarters, rewarding businesses with greater success monetizing their AI-investments. This trend was evident through the divergence of returns from IBM and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) following their quarterly earnings.
U.S. Quant Factors: Decelerating U.S. inflation data prompted a rotation out of highly concentrated areas of the market (growth) and into more economically-sensitive companies (value). Then, concerns of a slowing U.S. labour market and the unwind of the yen carry trade increased market volatility, leading investors to shelter their positions by reallocating to low volatility. As the quarter progressed, expectations of easing monetary policy and stabilizing employment data helped calm return to the market and the rotation from mega-cap tech sector resumed, albeit at a lesser pace. Notably, this “catch-up” trade also benefitted dividend-paying companies, particularly those with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, as investors favoured those more mature operations.
Canadian Fundamentals: Investors returned to the Canadian market after Canadian companies showed signs of recovery last quarter with earnings expanding by more than expected. With inflation showing clearer signs of deceleration and the outlook regarding the path of monetary policy increasingly implying lower interest rates going forward, investors are allocating toward high-quality, dividend-paying companies. From a sector level, surging gold prices provided a tailwind for Canadian miners, helping the materials sector outperform over the quarter. More recently, the materials sector has benefitted from elevated base metal prices following the arrival of Chinese stimulus. In contrast, oil prices declined over 16% last quarter as fears of an oversupplied market swelled following speculation that OPEC+ would look to dial back production cuts. As a result, investors looked past lingering geopolitical risks and the energy sector underperformed.
Canadian Quant Factors: Amid an improving Canadian macroeconomic backdrop and clearer outlook on the trajectory of monetary policy, dividend-yielding businesses became sought after. More specifically, investors continued to emphasize dividend sustainability last quarter, rewarding dividend-paying businesses that demonstrated strong financial performance and the ability to support future payouts. For example, the major Canadian banks sharply outperformed in Q3 after reporting earnings growth that mostly exceeded expectations. In essence, investors have become more constructive on this high-yielding group as their ability to create value relative to financing costs improves.
Downloadable Copy
ADVISOR USE ONLYMark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public Portfolio ManagementIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public Portfolio ManagementJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Portfolio ManagementJin Li
Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA
Senior Analyst, Equity
Andrew Vermeer
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
Francie Chen
Analyst, Rates
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin – October 2020
In this issue:
- Group benefits enrolment just got a lot easier*
- Critical Illness added to myFlex Benefits® selection tool**
- ASO dental available down to 3 lives
- QDIPC updates terms and conditions for 2021*
*Indicates content that will be shared with your clients
**Indicates content that will be shared with myFlex Benefits groups onlyGroup benefits enrolment just got a lot easier*
Our Online Plan Member Enrolment tool now makes it simple to add new employees to the benefits plan.
Enrolling new plan members can be overwhelming – for both you, your clients and their employees. It’s challenging to ensure plan members complete the necessary paperwork before the enrolment deadline, and time consuming to manually load new members.
That’s why we’re updating our plan member enrolment experience. Beginning November 2nd, 2020, all Equitable Life groups will be able to easily enrol new employees in the benefits plan with our Online Plan Member Enrolment Tool.
Benefits of Online Plan Member Enrolment
Our Online Plan Member Enrolment tool offers a more secure and efficient option to traditional paper enrolment. Employees are able to enrol in their benefits plan in just minutes from their computer or mobile device.
The user-friendly interface was built with the plan member in mind. They can easily enter all their enrolment information, including dependent details, banking information for direct deposit of claim payments and details for coordination of benefits. They can even designate their beneficiary electronically.
The online enrolment tool also lessens the effort for plan administrators to onboard new hires. The tool reduces errors and rework that can occur due to spelling mistakes or missing information on paper forms. And the days of chasing plan members for their paper enrolment forms are gone. Once they enter a few employee details, our system will automatically send out an email to each plan member, inviting them to enrol in their benefits program. And there will be no need to send reminders or follow up with employees about their benefits enrolment. It’s all done automatically.
Online plan member enrolment is available to all traditional and myFlex Benefits plan administrators with update access beginning November 2nd, 2020. Plan administrators just choose “New” from the “Certificate” view in EquitableHealth.ca to get started.
This enhancement is for plan administrators who have update access on EquitableHealth.ca. If your clients are not sure if they have update access, they can contact their Equitable Life Client Relationship Specialist or myFlex Benefits Team for support.
Learn More
We’ve created Online Plan Member Enrolment User Guides to support your clients and their plan members with this new tool:
- Online Plan Member Enrolment 1-page flyer
- Plan Member Online Plan Member Enrolment Quick Reference Guide
- myFlex Plan Member Online Plan Member Enrolment Quick Reference Guide
We’re also offering a series of webinars to help your clients learn about Online Plan Member Enrolment. Plan administrators will receive an invitation with links to register for the time that best suits their schedule.
Help your clients spend less time administering group benefits. Contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager to learn more about our enhanced online plan member enrolment.
Critical Illness added to myFlex Benefits selection tool*
For many employers, mandatory Critical Illness (CI) coverage is an important part of their group benefits package. It provides proactive protection against life-altering illness, helping give plan members and their families a sense of security.
While CI is available on myFlex Benefits plans, it was not built into our benefits selection tool since there is no action required by the plan member.
Beginning November 2nd, 2020, we are adding a CI page to the myFlex Benefits selection tool that appears when this coverage is included as part of the plan. There are no options to choose – plan members simply review their CI coverage and carry on with the benefits selection process. It keeps the process smooth, while ensuring plan members fully appreciate their employer’s contributions.
Adding CI to the benefits selection tool also simplifies the budgeting process for employers. Now that CI is included in the selection tool, employers no longer need to break out the amount billed for CI from their contribution per employee when loading flex allocations.
To learn more about our myFlex Benefits selection tool or Critical Illness coverage for myFlex Benefits, contact your myFlex Sales Manager.
ASO dental available down to 3 lives
Beginning November 2nd, 2020, groups with as few as three full-time employees will be able to self-insure their Equitable Life dental benefits with an Administrative Services Only (ASO) funding arrangement.
Currently, dental benefits are only available on an ASO basis for groups with 20 lives or more.
In an ASO arrangement, Equitable Life administers the benefits plan but does not insure it. The plan sponsor pays for all eligible claims, as well as the expenses of administering the plan.
Why ASO?
Choosing an ASO funding arrangement allows plan sponsors to save on premiums. With a traditional insured funding arrangement, a portion of every premium dollar includes a charge for the risk that the insurer is assuming to cover the claims.
With an ASO arrangement, the plan sponsor assumes all risk, so they avoid the risk charge. And since dental claims are usually more predictable than other benefits, there is typically less risk involved in covering those claims.
For more information, contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
QDIPC updates terms and conditions for 2021*
Every year, the Quebec Drug Insurance Pooling Corporation (QDIPC) reviews the terms and conditions for the high-cost pooling system in the province. Based on its latest review, QDIPC is revising its pooling levels and fees for 2021 to reflect trends in the volume of claims submitted to the pool, particularly catastrophic claims.
Size of group (# of certificates) Threshold per certificate 2021 Annual factor (without dependents) Annual factor (with dependents) Fewer than 25 $8,000 $251.00 $691.00 25 - 49 $16,500 $165.00 $455.00 50 - 124 $32,500 $94.00 $258.00 125 - 249 $47,500 $68.00 $187.00 250 - 499 $72,000 $49.00 $135.00 500 - 999 $95,000 $40.00 $111.00 1,000 - 3,999 $120,000 $35.00 $95.00 4,000 - 5,999 $300,000 $16.00 $44.00 6,000 and over Free market - Groups not subject to Quebec Industry Pooling Free market - Groups not subject to Quebec Industry Pooling Free market - Groups not subject to Quebec Industry Pooling We will apply the new pooling levels and fees to future renewal calculations that involve Quebec plan members.
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Empathy – Life doesn’t pause for grief
Did you hear? In March, Equitable added its Empathy Loss Support benefit1 to all new and existing individual life insurance policies. Empathy is a digital bereavement support platform. It helps families navigate life after a loss with caring guidance and practical tools.
• Instant: Beneficiaries can start using Empathy Loss Support services on the mobile app or web as soon as they start a life claim1,2.
• Personalized: Step-by-step help is available with plans, paperwork, and tough decisions. Caring professionals provide real-person support3.
• Supportive: Empathy enhances the advisor’s role and helps build stronger client relationships.
• Included: Empathy comes with all individual life policies at no added cost.
With Empathy, Equitable continues its promise to always put clients first. We help families get the support they need during their most challenging times.
Watch the Empathy video.
Learn more about Empathy.
Contact your Equitable wholesaler with any questions.
1This loss support benefit is provided by Empathy and is available to all Equitable life beneficiaries aged 18+ years and residing in Canada. Equitable does not have access to the information provided to Empathy and is not responsible or liable for the services provided by Empathy. Empathy does not represent Equitable nor have the right to bind Equitable. Equitable may modify access to or discontinue offering the Empathy service at any time.
2The Empathy mobile app and Empathy Loss Support services are only offered in Canada, USA, and UK.
3The Empathy app and Care Team provide guidance and support tailored to Empathy's understanding of your needs. Empathy does not provide legal, medical, financial, or accounting advice, nor does Empathy provide mental health diagnosis or treatment. We recommend consulting a professional on such matters.
6/8/2026 - Path to Success Module 4
- [pdf] Equitable GIF Registered Application
- [pdf] Equitable GIF TFSA Application
- Path to Success Module 6
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Digital tools for your clients and their plan members
In this issue:
- Digital tools for your clients and their plan members*
- QDIPC updates terms and conditions for 2024*
Digital tools for your clients and their plan members*
Do your clients know how to use all the available digital tools in their Equitable® benefits plans? With useful features for both plan administrators and their members, it’s even easier for your clients to access their plans online.Tools for plan administrators
- Our online plan member enrolment tool lets groups and administrators add new plan members online without completing paper forms
- The EquitableHealth.ca plan administrator portal makes it easy for plan administrators to manage their plan anytime and anywhere. Helpful features include:
- A premium calculator to calculate monthly costs for plan members
- A simple process for updating plan member information
- Digital welcome kits provide personalized information directly to plan members through email
- Easy, automated payment options help plan administrators avoid missed payments by offering pre-authorized debit or electronic funds transfer
Tools for plan members
- Our plan member portal at EquitableHealth.ca provides secure, 24/7 access to claims history and coverage details. It also lets members submit claims, and includes health and wellness resources
- Electronic notifications and claims payments give plan members claim updates via email and deposit payments directly into their bank account
- The Equitable EZClaim® mobile app lets plan members submit claims quickly and securely on-the-go from their mobile device
- Digital benefits cards give plan members the convenience to access their benefits cards easily from a mobile device
Help with digital benefits tools
We’ve created a brochure and video guide to help plan members use digital tools for a smoother, more convenient benefits experience.
Plan members can contact us at 1.800.265.4556 and select the option for Web Support if they need further assistance.
QDIPC updates terms and conditions for 2024*
Every year, the Quebec Drug Insurance Pooling Corporation (QDIPC) reviews the terms and conditions for the high-cost pooling system in the province.
Based on its latest review, QDIPC is revising its pooling levels and fees for 2024 to reflect trends in the volume of claims submitted to the pool, particularly catastrophic claims. These updates take effect January 1, 2024. You can view the updates here.
We will apply the new pooling levels and fees to future renewal calculations that involve Quebec plan members.
If you have any questions, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Account Executive.
- [pdf] Equitable GIF FHSA Application
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