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Market Commentary January 2025

Key Takeaways

Full year 2024:

Despite reductions of policy-setting interest rates by central banks, yields on longer-term bonds finished the year higher than they started the year.
Positive risk appetite helped corporate bonds perform well, led by lower-quality issuers.
Global equity markets posted robust returns, with U.S. equities outperforming other developed markets, driven by heavy concentration into the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks.

Fourth Quarter:

Central banks continued to ease monetary policy in Q4, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy interest rate more aggressively than did the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The Republican victory across both the executive and legislative branches in the U.S. ignited expectations of economic growth, pushing bond yields and stock prices higher.
Risk sentiment helped corporate bonds continue to outperform government bonds.
Markets remained volatile: while North American stock markets continued to outperform most international indices, Canadian stocks managed to outperform U.S. stocks in Q4, as sources of returns in the U.S. narrowed into year-end.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace in Q4. The rate of inflation continued to slow but remained above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, as the unemployment rate has remained low compared to historical norms. A decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party further boosted expectations for continued growth. The return of the President-elect’s old tactics of threatening tariffs to influence trade, security, and drug control re-introduced some economic uncertainty, particularly regarding the potential return of inflationary pressures. Those concerns prompted the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its policy easing, as it lowered rates by just 0.25% at each of its two meetings in Q4, following the 0.50% cut in September. Throughout 2024, the Fed reduced rates by a total of 100 basis points, from 5.50% to 4.50%. Nonetheless, bond yields were significantly higher for most maturity terms during the fourth quarter as the market priced in not just a stronger economy than had been the expectation during Q3, implying less interest rate cuts by the Fed, but also growing concerns about the government deficit.

In Canada, growth remained positive during 2024 and improved a bit to close the year, but continued to fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations. Similarly, inflation came in lower than expected and below the Bank’s 2% target. The labour market continued to soften for much of the year, with employment growth falling short of labour force growth. The weakness in the labour market and economy, along with tamed inflation, prompted the Central Bank to cut rates at the pace of 50 basis points at each of its two meetings in Q4. For the full year, the Bank of Canada ended up lowering its policy rate by a total of 175 basis points, from 5% to 3.25%. The market has been expecting the Bank of Canada to need to continue cutting rates due to slower economic growth in Canada, but the fear of a possible trade war with the U.S. has made the economic outlook somewhat murkier.

Bond Markets: During the quarter, yields on mid- to long-term bonds in Canada rose in sympathy with rising bond yields in the U.S. However, bond yields in Canada rose to a lesser extent, and yields on shorter-term bonds were actually little changed over the quarter. The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was basically flat during Q4 and posted a return of 4.2% for the full year. Although interest rates rose, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to grind lower, helping corporate bonds post positive overall returns in the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels similar to those experienced in 2021, when markets did quite well after the pandemic. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continued to be very robust in the quarter, with $30 billion in new issuance, resulting in a record-breaking year with $141 billion of new issuance in 2024. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.

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Stock Markets – Overview: Trump’s presidential victory and the Republican party’s ‘red sweep’ in the Senate and House of Representatives sparked optimism surrounding economic growth and a new era of U.S. exceptionalism. As a result, North American equity markets extended their rally in Q4, capping off a year of robust returns. The S&P 500 returned 2.4%, bringing its year-to-date return to 25%. Within the U.S., the broadening of returns paused during the quarter as the chase for growth intensified, with mega-cap growth names like Tesla driving performance. Canadian equities surprisingly outperformed the U.S. market over the quarter, returning 3.8% in Q4, despite threats of widespread tariff negotiations looming on the horizon that could negatively impact Canadian corporate fundamentals. At a sector level, strength in the technology, financials, and energy sectors more than offset weakness in telecommunication companies as well as in the materials sector. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) underperformed last quarter as deteriorating Chinese growth prospects and weak economic growth in the Eurozone weighed on equities. Notably, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities benefitted from a rebounding U.S. dollar with the dollar index adding over 7.6% in Q4.

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U.S. Equities: U.S. equities remain supported by resilient margins and strong corporate earnings growth with over 70% of businesses surpassing bottom-line expectations last quarter. We remain attentive to the broadening of earnings performance and note that this trend has continued, albeit at a normalized pace versus prior quarters. More specifically, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000, excluding the Magnificent 7, posted median earnings growth of 6% last quarter, down from nearly 9% in Q3 but comparable to Q2 (6%). Looking forward to 2025, analysts continue to forecast U.S. exceptionalism, with forecasts of ~12% earnings growth.

Following Trump’s presidential victory, stocks with greater sensitivity to the U.S. economy, such as small cap businesses, benefitted from expectations of domestically focused growth initiatives. However, stubborn inflation and expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the trend of broadening sources of returns pause into the end of the year. Instead, market concentration reaccelerated with investors rushing back towards mega-cap growth stocks. In fact, Tesla – which is approximately 2% of the S&P 500 Index by market cap – contributed approximately one-third of the total index return in Q4, while the Mag 7 as a group contributed over 100% of total returns. In other words, U.S. large cap companies excluding the Magnificent 7 declined in aggregate last quarter.

Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of cooling inflation and below-trend growth, the Bank of Canada continued to loosen monetary policy. As a result, Canadian companies
showed signs of improving efficiency with return on equity – a gauge of corporate profitability – improving versus prior quarters. Under these conditions, investors remained focused on higher quality, high-dividend paying companies – particularly within the financial sector. Relative to prior quarters, this group witnessed greater contribution out of non-bank financials (such as asset managers and insurance companies), as the premium investors were willing to pay for Canadian banks remained elevated. Across other sectors, the energy sector had a positive quarter as the price of oil stabilized, but falling prices for raw industrials pushed the materials sector lower.

Bottom line: U.S. political developments and subsequent growth expectations dominated market sentiment last quarter. As a result, investors dialed back rate cut expectations and bond yields moved higher. In equity markets, the potential for an era of higher-for-longer rates prompted a resumption of investors crowding into growth stocks. Going forward, we remain cautious of elevated valuations and continue to prioritize diversified sources of returns with a long-term outlook. Nonetheless, despite rich valuations, our base case remains that investors’ enthusiasm for equities will persist in the near-term and stocks should continue to outperform bonds.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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2025 Holiday hours Individual Insurance
Thank you for your trust and partnership with Equitable. Wishing you a joyful holiday season and a successful year ahead.

Client Care Centre holiday hours
Dec 24, 2025: 8:30 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. ET
Dec 25–26, 2025: CLOSED
Dec 29–31, 2025: 8:30 a.m. – 7:30 p.m. ET
Jan 1, 2026: CLOSED

Individual Insurance deadlines
• Underwriting evidence due: Dec 10, 2025
• Final settle documents due: Dec 22, 2025
• Policy settlement by: Dec 30, 2025

Field Payroll
• Second last pay period: Dec 17–23, 2025 (Statements Dec 24)
• Last pay period: Dec 24–31, 2025 (Statements Jan 2, 2026)
• First pay of 2026: Jan 1–6, 2026 (Statements Jan 7)

Note: All requirements must be received by Head Office by the above dates to guarantee year-end settlement. Late submissions will be processed as quickly as possible, but settlement by year-end cannot be guaranteed.

Looking for Individual Wealth holiday hours? Please click here.
[pdf] Thinking through the decision to purchase JLTD policies
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2023 Holiday Hours The Holiday season brings thoughts of gratitude, and there is no better time to express our thanks and sincere appreciation for your dedication and commitment to Equitable Life.

Thank you for your support this past year and for trusting Equitable Life with your Individual Insurance and Savings & Retirement business. Happy Holidays!

Client Care Centre Holiday Hours
Friday December 22, 2023 - 8:30 a.m. – 7:30 p.m. ET
Monday December 25, 2023 – CLOSED
Tuesday December 26, 2023 – CLOSED
December 27, 28 and 29, 2023 - 8:30 a.m. – 7:30 p.m. ET
Monday January 1, 2024 - CLOSED

Savings & Retirement
To settle on December 22, 2023, the transaction must be received that day by 11:00 a.m. ET
To settle on December 29, 2023, the transaction must be received that day by 11:00 a.m. ET

Individual Insurance
Underwriting
● Underwriting must receive all evidence and outstanding Underwriting requirements by December 15th- at the latest. Underwriting will then be able to decision these cases by December 21st. This will give the New Business team December 21st – December 29th to issue and settle policies.

New Business
● New Business will continue to process all issue and settle requirements every business day until the last working day of the year – December 29th. New Business needs to receive ALL final settle documents in Good Order within our posted service standards. We are currently operating at a 3 business day turn around time.

Field Payroll
● Second Last Pay Period for 2023 – December13, 2023 to December 19, 2023 (Transmission/Statement date December 20, 2023)
● Last Pay Period of 2023 – December 20, 2023 to December 29, 2023 (Transmission/Statement date January 2,2024)
● First Pay of 2024 – January 1, 2024 to January 9, 2024 (Transmission/Statement date on January 10,2024)

Daily Pay will run on business days.

Please note that all requirements must be received in Head Office by the above dates to guarantee settlement for year end.
Repositioned Wealth Accumulator available
Repositioned Equimax Wealth available now

As we continue to grow to meet the needs of various market segments, our product options for your high net worth (HNW) clients have also been improved. Equimax Wealth Accumulator^® has been repositioned to meet the needs of your high net worth clients by providing more deposit room and competitive early cash values.

Equimax Wealth is now repositioned for your high net worth clients

Equimax Wealth Accumulator is now targeted for clients ages 45 to 65 with an insurance need but also looking for tax advantaged growth as an alternative to traditional investments. It allows your clients to achieve both while diversifying their portfolio and saving taxes, particularly for corporations.

Highlights of the repositioned Equimax Wealth Accumulator:
- More deposit room - Allows for significantly more deposit room by reducing the initial death benefit. This means more money can be paid into the policy to promote the tax-advantaged investment growth.
- Higher early cash surrender values - We are more competitive on total cash value in years 1 to 10 in the target market ages of 45-65. The higher extra deposit room and early surrender cash value allows the illustration to show an earlier premium offset, which is key for the HNW market.
- More competitive on life pay - Improvements to life pay more notable than 20 pay. Reduced premiums for most male and female non-smokers in our target market (ages 45-65) as well as 2, 3, and 4 year improvement in illustration of premium offset.
- More competitive at older ages - A shift in the target market means you can support older clients in the HNW market. The Equimax Wealth Accumulator is now more competitive at ages 45-65.
Learn more

For full details on the transition, please see our transition rules.

For more information on this product, please visit the Equimax page on Equinet.
2023 is here and we are here for you! Equitable Life^®would like to wish everyone a Happy New Year and we are looking forward to doing more business together in 2023!
Just a reminder, we made some changes in 2022 to make doing business with Equitable Life easier. Some of the most recent enhancements include:

Opt in for text messages on new applications
● Upon submission of an application, you can opt-in to receive text message updates for your new business applications. That’s a text message when the application is received, when a decision is made, when it’s ready for delivery and when the commissions have been triggered.

Cloning pages on EZcomplete^®
● You now have the ability to clone an application on EZcomplete. A whole family or a spouse can have a lot of duplicate information and the ability to clone an application can save tremendous amounts of time and make for a much more pleasant client experience.

Jump around on EZcomplete
● Jump from one part of the application to another and back again. You no longer have to complete the application one section after another in order. This will allow a lot more flexibility when submitting a policy application.

To learn more about these great enhancements contact your local wholesaler.

Continue watching for news from Equitable Life for more great launches and enhancements in 2023!

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2024 Holiday hours
The Holiday season brings thoughts of gratitude, and there is no better time to express our thanks and sincere appreciation for your dedication and commitment to Equitable.

Thank you for your support this past year and for trusting Equitable with your Individual Insurance and Savings & Retirement business. Happy Holidays!

Client Care Centre Holiday Hours
Friday December 6, 2024 - CLOSED
Tuesday December 24, 2024 - 8:30 a.m. – 11:00 a.m. ET
Wednesday December 25, 2024 – CLOSED
Thursday December 26, 2024 – CLOSED
December 27, 30 and 31, 2024 - 8:30 a.m. – 7:30 p.m. ET
Wednesday January 1, 2025 - CLOSED

Savings & Retirement
All transaction requests to be handled same business day must be submitted in good order by:
● December 24, 2024, 11:00 a.m. ET
● December 31, 2024, 11:00 a.m. ET

FHSA applications to be considered for 2024 contribution year must be submitted in good order by:
● December 31, 2024, 11:59 p.m. ET

FHSA online banking deposit deadline for 2024 contribution receipt:
● December 24, 2024, 4:00 p.m. ET Note: Transaction requests submitted after 11:00 a.m. ET will be processed effective next business day

RRSP deposits to be considered for the 2024 tax year must be:
● Dated March 3, 2025, or before
● Must be submitted to Head Office in good order by March 7, 2025, by 4:00 p.m. ET

RRSP applications to be considered for 2024 contribution year must be submitted in good order by:
● March 3, 2025, 11:59 p.m. ET

RRSP B2B Loans:
● RRSP loan deposits must be received by March 14, 2025, by 4:00 p.m. ET
Note: Transactions submitted after these dates will not receive a 2024 contribution receipt

Individual Insurance
Underwriting
● Underwriting must receive all evidence and outstanding Underwriting requirements by December 9th at the latest. Underwriting will then be able to decision these cases by December 16th. This will give the New Business team December 13th – December 31st to issue and settle policies.

New Business
● New Business will continue to process all issue and settle requirements every business day until the last working day of the year – December 31st. New Business needs to receive ALL final settle documents in Good Order within our posted service standards. We are currently operating at a 3 business day turn around time.

Field Payroll
● Second Last Pay Period for 2024 – December 11, 2024 to December 17, 2024 (Transmission/Statement date December 18, 2024)
● Last Pay Period of 2024 – December 18, 2024 to December 31, 2024 (Transmission/Statement date January 2, 2025)
● First Pay of 2025 – January 1, 2025 to January 7, 2025 (Transmission/Statement date on January 8, 2025)

Daily Pay will run on business days.

Please note that all requirements must be received in Head Office by the above dates to guarantee settlement for year end.
Term vs permanent life insurance: helping clients choose the best solution for them Most people understand why life insurance matters. What they’re often unsure about is which type of coverage is right for them. As an advisor, you’re in a unique position to do more than present options, you can help clients feel confident they’re making an informed choice.

Start with the client, not the product
Before discussing insurance solutions, you can start by asking three important questions:
1. What do you need to protect today?
2. What are you trying to achieve for the future?
3. What is your budget?
By asking these questions you will get a better understanding of which solution fits the client’s needs.

Matching the solution to the client
Term life insurance may be ideal for clients who have budget considerations and need coverage for:
• Helping to replace income
• Helping cover a mortgage or other debts
• Business protection
• A specific period of time (10 – 30 years)
If a client wants lifetime coverage but can’t afford it right now, term insurance is a good option. It gives them affordable coverage today that they can later choose to convert to permanent insurance when their income increases.¹

Permanent life insurance (whole life and universal life) is an option for clients looking for lifelong coverage and added long-term value. It’s a good option for clients who want to:
• Build an inheritance
• Preserve their estate
• Build tax advantaged cash value growth

Permanent life insurance is also an excellent way for parents or grandparents to help give children or grandchildren some lasting financial security. It secures lifetime protection at a lower cost when the child is young and healthy. It also offers the potential for cash value growth that they can access if needed.

Helping clients make confident choices
By focusing on what the client needs now—and what they might need later—you can help them pick life insurance that fits their changing life and financial goals. Share this client‑friendly piece that outlines some of the things that clients should consider to make an informed decision:
Which life insurance solution is right for you?

Reminder: Clients’ needs can change; it’s a good idea to review their coverage regularly.

For any questions, contact your Equitable wholesaler.

¹See contract for details on conversion limitations and eligibility.

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Repositioned Equimax Wealth available now

Equimax Wealth is now repositioned for your high net worth clients

Highlights of the repositioned Equimax Wealth Accumulator:

Learn more