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EAMG Market Commentary August 2022

August 2022

The S&P 500 fell into bear market territory over the first half of 2022 with the index down -20.6%. This represented a top 10 ranking amongst the most dismal back-to-back quarterly performances going back to 1928. While comparisons have been made to the inflation driven bear market of 1973-74, the economic backdrop today has some significant differences including greater production capacity (factory utilization rates are running about 20% lower vs the 70’s) and a meaningful decline in raw industrial prices which have fallen -11% over the quarter. While these economic anecdotes are potential positives for the future, it’s important to remain cognizant that prices remain elevated.

As such, the US Federal Reserve seems to be taking every opportunity to telegraph their intentions of raising interest rates at the expense of both market and economic performance, so long as inflation remains a threat. Given this hawkish tone, the market narrative has morphed from fears of inflation to a fed driven recession. As a result, the move in the bond market has been swift with the 10-year treasury yield peaking at approximately 3.5% in June to today’s level of 2.7% (lower rates = higher bond prices). This positive bond performance reflects the consensus view that inflation is temporary (2023 CPI forecasts are approximately 3.6% vs the second quarter’s 8.7% CPI reading) and could allow the Fed to adjust their higher interest rate trajectory downward. The Fed also remains confident that a soft landing is achievable, and a recession avoidable.

Investors seem less convinced however, given the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing before, and so it’s no surprise equity markets entered a bear market over the quarter, and currently remain in a technical correction (defined as losses greater than -10%). To better assess future performance, we closely monitor earnings results to understand how companies are navigating these economic trends. With nearly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, the results have been better than expected, but still the EPS beat rate and magnitude of beats (actual vs expectation) remain below 5-year averages. This tells us companies are finding today’s economic conditions more challenging than the recent past. Consumer sectors including marketing, retail, autos and textiles posted the 2nd worst performance vs other sectors while the Financials sector saw the greatest challenges with aggregate EPS falling by -15% year-over-year. Wall Street analysts have started to revise S&P 500 forward growth estimates lower, a trend which we expect will continue for several quarters ahead. The forward (12-month blended) P/E ratio of 17.5 times remains 1.5 multiple points above the long-term average which potentially suggests risks may not be fully priced in.

In terms of the S&P/TSX Composite, after declining nearly -14% in Q2 as recession fears around the world jeopardized the global demand outlook, its’ since rebounded over 4.0%. Still, valuation remains below longer-term averages at 11.8x forward earnings with the heavier weighted Financials and Energy sectors trading at 9.5x and 7.9x, respectively. TSX earnings expectations have stalled as of late but downward revisions are lagging US and European counterparts. Additionally, the domestic labour market remains tight which has allowed the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive rate hike path to curb soaring inflation. For most of 2022 the TSX has benefitted from surging commodity prices but an economic slowdown in China resulting from its commitment to a zero-Covid policy and a potential global recession could prove to be a challenge for the Canadian market.

Equity markets on average lose 30% of their value in recession led bear markets. If we use this as a potential road map, it suggests the S&P 500 could have further to fall. Using past performance as a forward-looking tool however is an imperfect technique and used in isolation of what’s happening today can often mislead.

Accounting for today’s backdrop, we come up with three scenarios of varying probabilities. The first is the most optimistic and includes an engineered soft landing by the Fed, meaning no recession and inflation cools. A less optimistic view is the fed tames inflation with higher interest rates but tips the economy into a mild-to-moderate recession. The outcome would be consumer spending and corporate hiring slow as a result of tighter financial conditions, and therefore financial results are negatively impacted. The least optimistic scenario is one where stagflationary conditions emerge as inflation continues to accelerate at the expense of growth despite higher interest rates, in other words the Fed loses control. The net result would be similar to our second scenario but with much more dire results in terms of unemployment, household spending and impacts to corporate profitability. While we don’t rule out any of the above scenarios completely, we assign the highest probability to the second one where macro economic issues get resolved at some point in the future, but the full effects of inflation and a possible recession have yet to be priced into the market. Currently, this view translates into a slight underweight equity position versus our benchmark with a tilt towards low volatility and defensive strategies along with an overlay of value and dividend paying securities. In other words, we’ve de-risked the portfolios relative to our benchmark to manage potential downside risks but remain meaningfully invested an on absolute basis. As always, time in the market tends to overcome trying to time the market, and so employing a strategic and diversified strategy is often the most prudent approach.

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Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
Here is what our advisors are saying about Equitable’s EZtransact
You asked US to make EZtransact™ even easier, so we did. We asked YOU to tell us what you think, and you are! Here is what our advisors are saying about Equitable’s EZtransact:

“EZtransact puts Equitable above all our product partners! This was so easy! Thank you!” - Michelle Rolston

“You've done an amazing job with the forms that are so easy to deal with now! Thank you”. - Jane Hanson

“You've got this thing running brilliant” - Gerald Kottke

“Love the ease of this!” - Bradley Radke

In case you missed the most recent updates to EZtransact, advisors can now help clients make segregated fund withdrawals for all account types, and transfer from one fund to another digitally using our self-serve tool. Comments from our advisors since these enhancements were made have been overwhelmingly positive. Thank you!

Get to know EZtransact and fast-forward your sales process. If you have any questions, please contact your Director, Investment Sales, or Advisor Services Team Monday to Friday, 8:30 a.m. – 7:30 p.m. ET at 1-866-884-7427, or email savingsretirement@equitable.ca.

Date posted: August 22, 2024
Your year-end momentum starts today! Just 79 days left to go in 2025!

As the air turns crisp and the leaves change color, we hope you’re enjoying our beautiful Canadian fall season. But before you get too swept up in the season's fun, remember that the final quarter is also a great time of year to boost your business.

Harvest season for success
Many clients are reviewing their financial goals and plans now. According to LIMRA, nearly 30% of life insurance applications are submitted between October and December¹. This means you have a huge sales opportunity.

Why choose Equitable^® ?
Clients expect competitive solutions that fit their unique needs well. Equitable offers great products, digital tools, and outstanding service and support. Learn more here.

Act now to finish 2025 on a strong note:
• Review your client list: Identify who needs a check-in before the year ends.
• Spot the opportunities: Year-end financial planning opens doors—don't miss out.
• Leverage our resources: From our e-apps to marketing materials and digital tools, we're here for you.

So, grab your client list (and your pumpkin spiced latte) and make the most of this final quarter. Your Equitable team is here to support you all the way to 2026 — let's finish 2025 strong!

¹LIMRA, "Life Insurance Applications by Month," 2025.
Earth Day: A simple way to talk about sustainable investing Earth Day is a great time to talk with clients about investing with purpose. This year’s theme—Our Power, Our Planet—highlights the impact of individual and collective choices, including how we invest.

Many Canadians are interested in sustainable investing, which looks at environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors alongside long term returns. Clients want to understand how the power of their money can support positive change—without sacrificing performance. Sustainable investing can look at things like reducing carbon impact, supporting fair workplaces, and encouraging strong company leadership.

Watch out for greenwashing
Not all investments labeled “sustainable” are the same. Some products may use the term without real environmental efforts or strategies. This is known as greenwashing.
That’s where advisors can add value. By understanding how funds are built and what they hold, you can help clients make informed choices they feel confident about.

How Equitable can help
Equitable^® offers sustainable investing fund options that include ESG considerations as part of a disciplined investment approach. Take this opportunity to review available options and fund details.

You can also support sustainability through how you work with clients. Equitable’s paperless tools help reduce paper consumption and improve efficiency:
•   Equitable Client Access^® for online account viewing
•   EZtransact^® for fast, digital transactions
•   EZcomplete^® for easy, paper free applications

Take action
Earth Day is a great time to:
•   Start simple conversations about sustainable investing
•   Share Equitable’s sustainable fund options with clients
•   Promote paperless tools that are better for clients and the environment

Small steps—done consistently—can make a meaningful difference for clients and the planet. If you have questions, speak with your Director, Investment Sales.

Date posted: April 22, 2026
New Online Policy Loan Form
Advisors will now have access to a new digital policy loan form on EquiNet™.

On eligible policies, you can launch a customized policy loan form through the Values tab in Policy Inquiry. (login required)

This form is quick and intuitive. You tell us the loan amount, how your client wants to receive the funds, then confirm your client’s contact info and submit! Once your client signs, it is sent for review and processing within our current service standards.

This is the first form to be digitalized and we plan to continue this work with more forms later this year.

® and ™ denotes trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
FHSA tips for new homeowners Clients have a 30-day window after moving into their new home to withdraw funds from their First Home Savings Account (FHSA) tax-free for expenses. Beyond this period, they have until December 31 of the following year to either transfer any remaining funds to a Registered Retirement Savings Plan or Registered Retirement Income Fund without incurring tax penalties, or withdraw the remaining funds as taxable income, which will be subject to withholding tax.

Do you know clients dreaming of homeownership? We are here to assist! Clients who contribute to an Equitable^® FHSA between May 1 and September 30, 2025, will be entered into our Close to Home contest, for a chance to win one of two $8,000 prizes. Whether opening a new Equitable FHSA or making an annual contribution, this is a fantastic opportunity to help clients get closer to owning a home.

Advisors, your efforts matter too! You have a chance to win a $1,000 prize if the client you are assisting, in alignment with their unique homeownership needs, is selected as a winner. At Equitable, we believe that when we grow together, success is mutual.

Don’t forget about Equitable’s user-friendly online application platform, EZcomplete^®, or process an online transaction with ease using Equitable’s EZtransact^®. These tools are fast, simple, and could bring clients closer to achieving their goals.

Want to learn more? Speak to your Director, Investment Sales.

Equitable’s Close to Home Contest: No purchase necessary. Contest period May 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025.  Clients enter by making a deposit to an Equitable FHSA during the contest period or by submitting a no-purchase entry. Two prizes of $8,000 CAD each to be drawn on October 15, 2025 will be awarded. The servicing advisor for the policy to which the selected entrant made the deposit is also an eligible winner and will receive a $1,000 CAD prize. For example, if an Equitable client is a winner of the $8,000 prize, the client’s servicing advisor wins a $1,000 prize.  Open to legal residents of Canada of the age of majority. Odds of winning depend on number of eligible entries received during the Contest Period.  For full contest rules, including no-purchase method of entry, see the full contest rules. 

Date posted: July 23, 2025
Sometimes plans change when you least expect After saving for several years, clients might choose not to buy a home, and that's okay. One of the advantages of a First Home Savings Account (FHSA) is the flexibility to transfer funds to any registered account that accepts contributions. Transfers to Registered Retirement Savings Plans, Registered Retirement Income Funds, or other FHSAs are tax-free and do not impact contribution limits. However, be aware transfers to other accounts are considered withdrawals and are considered taxable income and subject to withholding tax.

Do you know clients dreaming of homeownership? We are here to assist! Clients who contribute to an Equitable FHSA between May 1 and September 30, 2025 will be entered into our Close to Home contest, for a chance to win one of two $8,000 prizes. Whether opening a new Equitable FHSA or making an annual contribution, this is a fantastic opportunity to help clients get closer to owning a home.

Advisors, your efforts matter too! You have a chance to win a $1,000 prize if the client you are assisting, in alignment with their unique homeownership needs, is selected as a winner. At Equitable, we believe that when we grow together, success is mutual.

Don’t forget about Equitable’s user-friendly online application platform, EZcomplete^®, or process an online transaction with ease using Equitable’s EZtransact^®. These tools are fast, simple, and could bring clients closer to achieving their goals.

Want to learn more? Speak to your Director, Investment Sales.

Equitable’s Close to Home Contest: No purchase necessary. Contest period May 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025.  Clients enter by making a deposit to an Equitable FHSA during the contest period or by submitting a no-purchase entry. Two prizes of $8,000 CAD each to be drawn on October 15, 2025 will be awarded. The servicing advisor for the policy to which the selected entrant made the deposit is also an eligible winner and will receive a $1,000 CAD prize. For example, if an Equitable client is a winner of the $8,000 prize, the client’s servicing advisor wins a $1,000 prize.  Open to legal residents of Canada of the age of majority. Odds of winning depend on number of eligible entries received during the Contest Period.  For full contest rules, including no-purchase method of entry, see the full contest rules. 

Date posted: August 7, 2025