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Equitable Life presents a conversation with Equitable Asset Management Group

Did you miss our recent webcast with Equitable Asset Management Group’s Dave Irwin? Did you want to watch it again? Click here to access the On Demand presentation.

Summary

After a record-breaking descent into bear market territory, equity markets have since undergone an unprecedented recovery despite the continued negative economic impacts of COVID-19. With market performance seemingly at odds with the outlook for corporate profits and recessionary calls from economists, what can possibly explain the optimistic tone of the market and is it justified? Please join us to hear David Irwin, Director, Portfolio Management and Client Relations share some insight into the current environment, key market drivers and policy responses to help put market performance in context.

Don’t miss your opportunity to also hear about Equitable’s Active Portfolios and recent No Load CB sales charge option.

Please note that this webcast is open to advisors only. Be advised this webcast is available in English only. We will not be seeking any Continuing Education credits for this webcast.
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Market Commentary January 2025

Key Takeaways

Full year 2024:

Despite reductions of policy-setting interest rates by central banks, yields on longer-term bonds finished the year higher than they started the year.
Positive risk appetite helped corporate bonds perform well, led by lower-quality issuers.
Global equity markets posted robust returns, with U.S. equities outperforming other developed markets, driven by heavy concentration into the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks.

Fourth Quarter:

Central banks continued to ease monetary policy in Q4, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy interest rate more aggressively than did the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The Republican victory across both the executive and legislative branches in the U.S. ignited expectations of economic growth, pushing bond yields and stock prices higher.
Risk sentiment helped corporate bonds continue to outperform government bonds.
Markets remained volatile: while North American stock markets continued to outperform most international indices, Canadian stocks managed to outperform U.S. stocks in Q4, as sources of returns in the U.S. narrowed into year-end.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace in Q4. The rate of inflation continued to slow but remained above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, as the unemployment rate has remained low compared to historical norms. A decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party further boosted expectations for continued growth. The return of the President-elect’s old tactics of threatening tariffs to influence trade, security, and drug control re-introduced some economic uncertainty, particularly regarding the potential return of inflationary pressures. Those concerns prompted the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its policy easing, as it lowered rates by just 0.25% at each of its two meetings in Q4, following the 0.50% cut in September. Throughout 2024, the Fed reduced rates by a total of 100 basis points, from 5.50% to 4.50%. Nonetheless, bond yields were significantly higher for most maturity terms during the fourth quarter as the market priced in not just a stronger economy than had been the expectation during Q3, implying less interest rate cuts by the Fed, but also growing concerns about the government deficit.

In Canada, growth remained positive during 2024 and improved a bit to close the year, but continued to fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations. Similarly, inflation came in lower than expected and below the Bank’s 2% target. The labour market continued to soften for much of the year, with employment growth falling short of labour force growth. The weakness in the labour market and economy, along with tamed inflation, prompted the Central Bank to cut rates at the pace of 50 basis points at each of its two meetings in Q4. For the full year, the Bank of Canada ended up lowering its policy rate by a total of 175 basis points, from 5% to 3.25%. The market has been expecting the Bank of Canada to need to continue cutting rates due to slower economic growth in Canada, but the fear of a possible trade war with the U.S. has made the economic outlook somewhat murkier.

Bond Markets: During the quarter, yields on mid- to long-term bonds in Canada rose in sympathy with rising bond yields in the U.S. However, bond yields in Canada rose to a lesser extent, and yields on shorter-term bonds were actually little changed over the quarter. The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was basically flat during Q4 and posted a return of 4.2% for the full year. Although interest rates rose, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to grind lower, helping corporate bonds post positive overall returns in the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels similar to those experienced in 2021, when markets did quite well after the pandemic. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continued to be very robust in the quarter, with $30 billion in new issuance, resulting in a record-breaking year with $141 billion of new issuance in 2024. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.

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Stock Markets – Overview: Trump’s presidential victory and the Republican party’s ‘red sweep’ in the Senate and House of Representatives sparked optimism surrounding economic growth and a new era of U.S. exceptionalism. As a result, North American equity markets extended their rally in Q4, capping off a year of robust returns. The S&P 500 returned 2.4%, bringing its year-to-date return to 25%. Within the U.S., the broadening of returns paused during the quarter as the chase for growth intensified, with mega-cap growth names like Tesla driving performance. Canadian equities surprisingly outperformed the U.S. market over the quarter, returning 3.8% in Q4, despite threats of widespread tariff negotiations looming on the horizon that could negatively impact Canadian corporate fundamentals. At a sector level, strength in the technology, financials, and energy sectors more than offset weakness in telecommunication companies as well as in the materials sector. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) underperformed last quarter as deteriorating Chinese growth prospects and weak economic growth in the Eurozone weighed on equities. Notably, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities benefitted from a rebounding U.S. dollar with the dollar index adding over 7.6% in Q4.

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U.S. Equities: U.S. equities remain supported by resilient margins and strong corporate earnings growth with over 70% of businesses surpassing bottom-line expectations last quarter. We remain attentive to the broadening of earnings performance and note that this trend has continued, albeit at a normalized pace versus prior quarters. More specifically, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000, excluding the Magnificent 7, posted median earnings growth of 6% last quarter, down from nearly 9% in Q3 but comparable to Q2 (6%). Looking forward to 2025, analysts continue to forecast U.S. exceptionalism, with forecasts of ~12% earnings growth.

Following Trump’s presidential victory, stocks with greater sensitivity to the U.S. economy, such as small cap businesses, benefitted from expectations of domestically focused growth initiatives. However, stubborn inflation and expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the trend of broadening sources of returns pause into the end of the year. Instead, market concentration reaccelerated with investors rushing back towards mega-cap growth stocks. In fact, Tesla – which is approximately 2% of the S&P 500 Index by market cap – contributed approximately one-third of the total index return in Q4, while the Mag 7 as a group contributed over 100% of total returns. In other words, U.S. large cap companies excluding the Magnificent 7 declined in aggregate last quarter.

Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of cooling inflation and below-trend growth, the Bank of Canada continued to loosen monetary policy. As a result, Canadian companies
showed signs of improving efficiency with return on equity – a gauge of corporate profitability – improving versus prior quarters. Under these conditions, investors remained focused on higher quality, high-dividend paying companies – particularly within the financial sector. Relative to prior quarters, this group witnessed greater contribution out of non-bank financials (such as asset managers and insurance companies), as the premium investors were willing to pay for Canadian banks remained elevated. Across other sectors, the energy sector had a positive quarter as the price of oil stabilized, but falling prices for raw industrials pushed the materials sector lower.

Bottom line: U.S. political developments and subsequent growth expectations dominated market sentiment last quarter. As a result, investors dialed back rate cut expectations and bond yields moved higher. In equity markets, the potential for an era of higher-for-longer rates prompted a resumption of investors crowding into growth stocks. Going forward, we remain cautious of elevated valuations and continue to prioritize diversified sources of returns with a long-term outlook. Nonetheless, despite rich valuations, our base case remains that investors’ enthusiasm for equities will persist in the near-term and stocks should continue to outperform bonds.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

Update on our service levels during the COVID-19 pandemic

Supporting your clients and their plan members is more important than ever during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic

So, we’re providing an update on our service levels.

We acted quickly to ensure there were no disruptions in service – most of our staff were working remotely from home and fully functional within a few days. We’ve reallocated resources from functions where volumes are down, such as dental claims, to those experiencing higher volumes. We also created a separate queue for COVID-19-related STD claims.

As a result, we’ve been able to maintain the industry-leading service levels you have come to expect from us, and our turnaround times continue to be well within our targets.

Here’s a summary of what you and your clients can currently expect in terms of average turnaround times:

Service category	Average Turnaround Time (as of April 26^th)
Customer Care Centre wait times	89% of calls answered within 20 seconds
Responses to emails to our Service Team	Within 24 hours
Health claims	2 days
Dental claims	2 days
Life claims	1 day
STD claims	4 days
LTD claims	4 days
Plan member updates	2 days
New customer implementations	16 days
COVID-19-related plan amendments	4 days
Other plan amendments	8 days
Quotes	2 days ahead of deadline

We will closely monitor the situation and continue to adapt to ensure we maintain our service levels. And we will do our best to resolve any service issues that arise as quickly as possible.

Please feel free to contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager and let us know how we’re doing.

An important announcement about our Travel Assist provider Allianz Global Assistance, our Travel Assist emergency medical assistance provider, has informed us that it is exiting the Canadian group travel insurance market.

Allianz will continue to accept and support new claims up to June 30, 2023, and they will support ongoing claims until Dec. 31, 2023.

We are already meeting with potential new Travel Assist partners and plan to have a provider in place before June 30, 2023.

In the meantime, we are working closely with Allianz to help ensure a smooth and seamless transition for your clients and their plan members. Allianz is committed to maintaining its staff to meet and exceed service levels throughout the transition, as follows:

Before July 1, 2023:
Allianz will continue to accept calls and open new claims up to June 30, 2023. Any claims opened on or prior to June 30, 2023, will continue to be processed by Allianz until Dec. 31, 2023.

After July 1, 2023:
New cases will be directed to our new service provider. Allianz will work alongside us and our new provider to make this transition as simple as possible.

After Dec. 31, 2023:
For any cases still open as of Dec. 31, 2023, Allianz will work with our new service provider to responsibly transfer these cases while ensuring a seamless client experience.

We will communicate this news next week to your clients who have Travel Assist coverage on their plan. And we will continue to communicate more details to you about this transition in the coming weeks.

If you have any questions, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
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238 results for MAKEMUR.com pay for extra phone calls in prison Virginia

Please note that this webcast is open to advisors only. Be advised this webcast is available in English only. We will not be seeking any Continuing Education credits for this webcast.