Site Search

445 results for PROBLEMGO.com Paying cash to bond someone out of jail quickly Hamilton

[pdf] Mackenzie Global Tactical Bond Fund
NEW MARKETING MATERIAL! Flexibility for supplemental income with Equimax Equitable has created a new piece to help you understand our new Equimax^® illustration feature, Paid-Up Additions (PUA) to Cash Dividends, now available!

Did you know Equimax clients can switch from the PUA dividend option to the cash dividend option by simply requesting a dividend option change?^1,2

You can illustrate this for paid-up 10 pay and 20 pay Equimax plans! Show clients how they can build in added flexibility and use their policy to create a source of future supplemental income by simply changing the dividend option to cash.³

Illustration Considerations:
● Works with Equimax Estate Builder^® or Equimax Wealth Accumulator^®.
● Illustrate the Excelerator Deposit Option (EDO) to help build the policy values while the PUA dividend option is in effect. EDO payments can’t be made once the policy is switched to the cash dividend option.
● If a client needs temporary insurance coverage – like mortgage protection - illustrate term riders for how long they are needed to meet the specific goal.³
● If critical illness coverage is needed our competitively priced 20 pay critical illness riders are a great fit to provide paid-up critical illness coverage.³

Clients should apply for the coverage they need. This concept is about flexibility to create a future source of supplemental income.

Want to learn more? Check out our new marketing piece: Flexibility for supplemental income with Equimax (2077).

For more information, reach out to your local wholesaler.

^®and ^TMdenote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
¹ Dividends are not guaranteed and are paid at the sole discretion of the Board of Directors. Dividends may be subject to taxation. Dividends will vary based on the actual investment returns in the participating account as well as mortality, expenses, lapse, claims experience, taxes, and other experience of the participating block of policies.
² To request a change to the dividend option complete and submit form 558 (Request for Withdrawal of Dividends, Change in Option, or Premium Offset). A client can request a change to the cash dividend option from any other dividend option regardless of the premium type or whether premiums continue to be payable, subject to our current administration rules and guidelines. Some dividend option changes are subject to underwriting. Underwriting is not required to change from the PUA to cash dividend option, however, underwriting is required to change from the cash dividend option to the PUA dividend option.
³ This concept is intended to illustrate a one-time switch to cash dividends once premiums are no longer payable for the policy (including premiums for riders). Premiums are paid with after-tax dollars and dividends paid in cash are subject to taxation. If premiums are payable there will be tax savings for the client to use the before-tax cash dividend to reduce the premium instead of taking it entirely as a cash payment. This concept is intended for longer term planning, not to meet short term cash needs by switching back and forth between the PUA and cash options. Clients should consider a policy loan or a cash withdrawal to meet short-term cash needs; policy loans and cash withdrawals may be subject to taxation.

Market Commentary January 2025

Key Takeaways

Full year 2024:

Despite reductions of policy-setting interest rates by central banks, yields on longer-term bonds finished the year higher than they started the year.
Positive risk appetite helped corporate bonds perform well, led by lower-quality issuers.
Global equity markets posted robust returns, with U.S. equities outperforming other developed markets, driven by heavy concentration into the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks.

Fourth Quarter:

Central banks continued to ease monetary policy in Q4, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy interest rate more aggressively than did the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The Republican victory across both the executive and legislative branches in the U.S. ignited expectations of economic growth, pushing bond yields and stock prices higher.
Risk sentiment helped corporate bonds continue to outperform government bonds.
Markets remained volatile: while North American stock markets continued to outperform most international indices, Canadian stocks managed to outperform U.S. stocks in Q4, as sources of returns in the U.S. narrowed into year-end.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace in Q4. The rate of inflation continued to slow but remained above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, as the unemployment rate has remained low compared to historical norms. A decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party further boosted expectations for continued growth. The return of the President-elect’s old tactics of threatening tariffs to influence trade, security, and drug control re-introduced some economic uncertainty, particularly regarding the potential return of inflationary pressures. Those concerns prompted the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its policy easing, as it lowered rates by just 0.25% at each of its two meetings in Q4, following the 0.50% cut in September. Throughout 2024, the Fed reduced rates by a total of 100 basis points, from 5.50% to 4.50%. Nonetheless, bond yields were significantly higher for most maturity terms during the fourth quarter as the market priced in not just a stronger economy than had been the expectation during Q3, implying less interest rate cuts by the Fed, but also growing concerns about the government deficit.

In Canada, growth remained positive during 2024 and improved a bit to close the year, but continued to fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations. Similarly, inflation came in lower than expected and below the Bank’s 2% target. The labour market continued to soften for much of the year, with employment growth falling short of labour force growth. The weakness in the labour market and economy, along with tamed inflation, prompted the Central Bank to cut rates at the pace of 50 basis points at each of its two meetings in Q4. For the full year, the Bank of Canada ended up lowering its policy rate by a total of 175 basis points, from 5% to 3.25%. The market has been expecting the Bank of Canada to need to continue cutting rates due to slower economic growth in Canada, but the fear of a possible trade war with the U.S. has made the economic outlook somewhat murkier.

Bond Markets: During the quarter, yields on mid- to long-term bonds in Canada rose in sympathy with rising bond yields in the U.S. However, bond yields in Canada rose to a lesser extent, and yields on shorter-term bonds were actually little changed over the quarter. The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was basically flat during Q4 and posted a return of 4.2% for the full year. Although interest rates rose, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to grind lower, helping corporate bonds post positive overall returns in the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels similar to those experienced in 2021, when markets did quite well after the pandemic. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continued to be very robust in the quarter, with $30 billion in new issuance, resulting in a record-breaking year with $141 billion of new issuance in 2024. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.

Chart2-(1).png

Stock Markets – Overview: Trump’s presidential victory and the Republican party’s ‘red sweep’ in the Senate and House of Representatives sparked optimism surrounding economic growth and a new era of U.S. exceptionalism. As a result, North American equity markets extended their rally in Q4, capping off a year of robust returns. The S&P 500 returned 2.4%, bringing its year-to-date return to 25%. Within the U.S., the broadening of returns paused during the quarter as the chase for growth intensified, with mega-cap growth names like Tesla driving performance. Canadian equities surprisingly outperformed the U.S. market over the quarter, returning 3.8% in Q4, despite threats of widespread tariff negotiations looming on the horizon that could negatively impact Canadian corporate fundamentals. At a sector level, strength in the technology, financials, and energy sectors more than offset weakness in telecommunication companies as well as in the materials sector. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) underperformed last quarter as deteriorating Chinese growth prospects and weak economic growth in the Eurozone weighed on equities. Notably, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities benefitted from a rebounding U.S. dollar with the dollar index adding over 7.6% in Q4.

Chart3-(1).png

U.S. Equities: U.S. equities remain supported by resilient margins and strong corporate earnings growth with over 70% of businesses surpassing bottom-line expectations last quarter. We remain attentive to the broadening of earnings performance and note that this trend has continued, albeit at a normalized pace versus prior quarters. More specifically, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000, excluding the Magnificent 7, posted median earnings growth of 6% last quarter, down from nearly 9% in Q3 but comparable to Q2 (6%). Looking forward to 2025, analysts continue to forecast U.S. exceptionalism, with forecasts of ~12% earnings growth.

Following Trump’s presidential victory, stocks with greater sensitivity to the U.S. economy, such as small cap businesses, benefitted from expectations of domestically focused growth initiatives. However, stubborn inflation and expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the trend of broadening sources of returns pause into the end of the year. Instead, market concentration reaccelerated with investors rushing back towards mega-cap growth stocks. In fact, Tesla – which is approximately 2% of the S&P 500 Index by market cap – contributed approximately one-third of the total index return in Q4, while the Mag 7 as a group contributed over 100% of total returns. In other words, U.S. large cap companies excluding the Magnificent 7 declined in aggregate last quarter.

Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of cooling inflation and below-trend growth, the Bank of Canada continued to loosen monetary policy. As a result, Canadian companies
showed signs of improving efficiency with return on equity – a gauge of corporate profitability – improving versus prior quarters. Under these conditions, investors remained focused on higher quality, high-dividend paying companies – particularly within the financial sector. Relative to prior quarters, this group witnessed greater contribution out of non-bank financials (such as asset managers and insurance companies), as the premium investors were willing to pay for Canadian banks remained elevated. Across other sectors, the energy sector had a positive quarter as the price of oil stabilized, but falling prices for raw industrials pushed the materials sector lower.

Bottom line: U.S. political developments and subsequent growth expectations dominated market sentiment last quarter. As a result, investors dialed back rate cut expectations and bond yields moved higher. In equity markets, the potential for an era of higher-for-longer rates prompted a resumption of investors crowding into growth stocks. Going forward, we remain cautious of elevated valuations and continue to prioritize diversified sources of returns with a long-term outlook. Nonetheless, despite rich valuations, our base case remains that investors’ enthusiasm for equities will persist in the near-term and stocks should continue to outperform bonds.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

Market Comments - October 2024

Key Takeaways for Q3

· Central banks eased monetary policy by reducing their target interest rates.
· Bond markets performed very well during the quarter as interest rates fell.
· Risk markets experienced some volatility, but stock markets had robust returns.
· Canadian stocks outperformed U.S. stocks in Q3, while the sources of returns in the U.S. market were more balanced and diversified than in the first half of the year.

Views From the Frontline

Bond Markets: During the third quarter, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. moved significantly lower as markets anticipated that the Bank of Canada would continue – and the Federal Reserve would start – cutting rates. Additionally, the expectation became that the central banks would end up lowering rates more aggressively than previously assumed. That’s because inflation data has softened sufficiently to give the central banks the scope to ease policy, and other economic data, especially from the labour market, indicated the need for them to ease policy in order to prevent economic activity from cooling too much. For instance, in Canada, inflation slowed to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, while the labour market showed warning signs with the unemployment rate rising to 6.6%. The Bank of Canada cut its target interest rate by 0.25% at each of its July and September meetings. Governor Macklem indicated that if growth does not materialize as expected, “it could be appropriate to move faster on interest rates”. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve kicked off its easing cycle by cutting its target rate by 0.50% in September. The growing signs of a cooling labour market amidst slowing inflation motivated the larger-than-typical move. That said, consumer spending in the U.S. continued to be strong, and GDP is still tracking a healthy growth rate.

While interest rates fell, bonds returns were also boosted by solid behaviour of corporate bonds. Credit spreads (i.e. the risk premium for corporate bonds versus government bonds) continued to grind lower over the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels that are largely consistent with the tight post-pandemic levels experienced in 2021. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to be very robust, with $29B (billion) in new issuance during the quarter, resulting in an impressive $119B issued year-to-date, a new record. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.

Stock Markets: In the U.S., we continue to caution against heavily concentrated sources of market returns and emphasize a diversified portfolio. Last quarter, diversification proved essential as a multitude of factors heightened market volatility. These factors – which included the unwind of the yen carry trade, investor reactions to mixed mega-cap earnings, and concerns of a slowing labour market – drove investors away from mega-cap technology names and into defensive areas of the market. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates by 0.5%, sources of investment returns continued to broaden as investors rotated into economically-sensitive baskets. Underpinned by decelerating inflation and easing monetary policy, we believe the rotation away from the mega-cap tech names is likely to persist and we continue to emphasize portfolio diversification. In Canada, high-quality, high-yielding businesses – composed of the financial sector and non-financial dividend payers – outperformed over the quarter as investors rewarded companies that demonstrated a strong ability to sustain dividends, as well as greater efficiency generating profits. While we continue to favour these businesses, we have taken profit on our financial sector dividend exposure after a sharp reversion in the premium between value creation and current yield. In addition, Chinese officials introduced a wave of stimulus to revitalize growth, bringing life back to the metals and luxury goods sectors. Accordingly, Canadian and European equities have benefitted recently.

Market Update

Rates & Credit: In Q3, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. decreased significantly, with front-end interest rates declining faster than long-end interest rates amid cooling inflation and a weakening labour market. As a result, the FTSE Canada Universe Index posted a positive return of 4.7%. Coincidentally, Canadian corporate bonds and government bonds each also generated returns of 4.7%, totally in-line with the Universe index. On the other hand, despite short-term interest rates falling much more than long-term interest rates, the higher price sensitivity of long-dated bonds had them outperform shorter-dated bonds, with the Long-Term bond index up 5.8% while the Short-Term bond index gained 3.4%. Similarly, within corporate bonds, industries that have longer-dated debt (e.g. energy and infrastructure) outperformed those that tend to have shorter-dated debt (e.g. real estate and financials).

Equity Overview: Underpinned by decelerating inflation data and easing monetary policy – including the outsize 50-basis cut from the Federal Reserve – prospects for an economic soft landing increased over the quarter. That favourable outlook spurred global equity markets to all-time highs, with previously lagging areas of the market narrowing the performance gap compared to the U.S. mega-cap technology names that had led returns in the first half of the year. Canadian equities outperformed their U.S. counterpart last quarter, rising 10.5% as strength in the banking and materials sectors pushed the index higher. Major developed markets from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) were more subdued, gaining 0.9% (in local currency terms) last quarter. That said, grand expectations for further interest rate cuts in the U.S. pushed the greenback to its lowest level in over a year, boosting EAFE returns to over 7% in U.S. dollar terms. Within the U.S., sources of market returns broadened as well, with investors rotating out of concentrated AI companies and into more economically sensitive businesses.

U.S. Fundamentals: Outside of the Magnificent 7, investors are interpreting downside earnings surprises as a normalization of financial performance rather than a deterioration. For example, McDonald’s share price rallied over 17% into quarter-end following its earnings release despite announcing declining sales and contracting earnings per share. Within the AI-ecosystem, investors are beginning to look for opportunities beyond chip manufacturers, such as nuclear energy providers. At an index level, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000 index, excluding the Mag-7, posted a median earnings growth of nearly 9% year-over-year, expanding from the ~6% witnessed in Q2. Furthermore, the number of companies from this group reporting positive earnings growth grew to approximately 67%, up from 60% in the prior quarter. In our view, the ongoing broadening of earnings strength outside of the Mag-7 can provide tailwinds to current market rotations into previously left-behind companies. Within the mega-cap tech space, investors have become more discriminant than in prior quarters, rewarding businesses with greater success monetizing their AI-investments. This trend was evident through the divergence of returns from IBM and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) following their quarterly earnings.

U.S. Quant Factors: Decelerating U.S. inflation data prompted a rotation out of highly concentrated areas of the market (growth) and into more economically-sensitive companies (value). Then, concerns of a slowing U.S. labour market and the unwind of the yen carry trade increased market volatility, leading investors to shelter their positions by reallocating to low volatility. As the quarter progressed, expectations of easing monetary policy and stabilizing employment data helped calm return to the market and the rotation from mega-cap tech sector resumed, albeit at a lesser pace. Notably, this “catch-up” trade also benefitted dividend-paying companies, particularly those with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, as investors favoured those more mature operations.

Canadian Fundamentals: Investors returned to the Canadian market after Canadian companies showed signs of recovery last quarter with earnings expanding by more than expected. With inflation showing clearer signs of deceleration and the outlook regarding the path of monetary policy increasingly implying lower interest rates going forward, investors are allocating toward high-quality, dividend-paying companies. From a sector level, surging gold prices provided a tailwind for Canadian miners, helping the materials sector outperform over the quarter. More recently, the materials sector has benefitted from elevated base metal prices following the arrival of Chinese stimulus. In contrast, oil prices declined over 16% last quarter as fears of an oversupplied market swelled following speculation that OPEC+ would look to dial back production cuts. As a result, investors looked past lingering geopolitical risks and the energy sector underperformed.

Canadian Quant Factors: Amid an improving Canadian macroeconomic backdrop and clearer outlook on the trajectory of monetary policy, dividend-yielding businesses became sought after. More specifically, investors continued to emphasize dividend sustainability last quarter, rewarding dividend-paying businesses that demonstrated strong financial performance and the ability to support future payouts. For example, the major Canadian banks sharply outperformed in Q3 after reporting earnings growth that mostly exceeded expectations. In essence, investors have become more constructive on this high-yielding group as their ability to create value relative to financing costs improves.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

[pdf] Pivotal Select Fund Facts

EAMG Market Commentary January 2024

Rates & Credit – Interest rates decreased sharply in Q4 as the market priced in aggressive interest rate cuts by central banks in 2024. The prospect of lower interest rates also drove a strong risk-on tone to the market, with the risk premium on corporate bonds grinding tighter as prospects for a “soft landing” improved. The rally in interest rates resulted in the best quarter for bonds over the past 15 years, with the FTSE Canada Universe Index returning 8.3%. Corporate bonds modestly underperformed the Universe Index with a return of 7.3%. The lower return for corporate bonds was primarily driven by the fact that the corporate bond index is less sensitive to interest rate movements (as compared to the government index), partially offset by the risk-on tone to the market. Within corporate bonds, lower-rated BBBs outperformed higher-rated A bonds. Industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications outperformed those with less exposure (notably financials and securitization), consistent with the overall shift in the yield curve.

Santa Came to Town – Moving in sync with bonds, global equities jolted higher into the end of the year with cooling inflation data and dovish comments from central bankers. The U.S. market outperformed most regions last quarter with the S&P 500 returning 11.7% in USD terms, bringing the total return in 2023 to 26.3%. The TSX added 8.1% in Q4, boosting the total annual return to 11.8%. Meanwhile, major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) gained 5.0% in local currency terms over the quarter, helping the region produce a 16.8% return from the year prior. Prospects of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the Loonie rally into year-end and resultantly, investors of Canadian dollar securities witnessed enhanced returns. Strong domestic U.S. economic data helped value pockets of the market outperform. That said, this was not a synchronized trend as China’s economic disappointment weighed on the performance of EAFE.

U.S. Fundamentals – Our work shows that investors are shifting their focus away from operating margins and towards the ability to sustain debt levels ahead of renewing debt obligations. Corporate earnings beat modest expectations last quarter, contracting by less-than-expected on a year-over-year basis. Resilient operating margins continue to attract investors into equities. After three consecutive quarters of improving forward earnings guidance, we observed that the number of major companies expecting deteriorating financial performance grew to ~35%. We note that this is a sharp contrast relative to the optimistic run-up in equity valuations. In general, corporate pessimism has been underpinned by concerns for the health of the consumer, increasing wage pressures, and inflation.

U.S. Quant Factors – While mega-cap technology stocks gave back some ground in the second half, crowding into the magnificent 7 remains noticeable with the cap weighted S&P 500 outperforming the equal weighted index by 12.5% last year. That said, value areas of the market – which underperformed through the first three quarters of the year – were top performing companies last quarter as the prospects for an economic “soft-landing” improved with U.S. inflation continuing to ease without substantial deteriorations of employment or output data. Quality-growth businesses initially outperformed as the higher-for-longer narrative continued to drive investors toward large cash-rich companies with stable margins. That said, this basket of companies gave back relative returns into quarter-end as weakness in operating margins persisted, making fundamentals appear stretched. Low volatility stocks (i.e. stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement and lower price volatility) rallied to start the quarter before dovish comments from central bankers improved risk-sentiment and ultimately pushed this basket lower on a relative basis. Lastly, dividend growth companies, which include businesses with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, underperformed the broader index as market participants punished businesses that slowed capital growth projects during the rising interest rate environment. While operating margins have declined, the basket’s strong cash flow and low debt burden may be advantageous if the market’s anticipation of impending interest rate cuts proves to be incorrect or mistimed.

Canadian Fundamentals – Although Canadian companies exceeded bleak forecasts last quarter, earnings continue to contract on a year-over-year basis. Return on equity (ROE) – a gauge of how efficiently a corporation generates profits – continued to decline last quarter while corporate costs of capital remain elevated. In essence, Canadian companies are generating less value relative to their financing cost. Value creation underpins the sustainability of dividend payments, which are a unique and desirable attribute of the Canadian market. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada held its overnight interest rate unchanged with market participants forecasting a higher probability of interest rate cuts in 2024. On the expectations of easing monetary conditions, dividend yields compressed while earnings forecasts improved with analysts predicting that index aggregate earnings will grow 6% to 8% in 2024. At a sector level, the energy industry’s financial performance normalized – in line with expectations – as weakening oil demand expectations overshadowed geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, ultimately pushing crude prices ~21% lower last quarter. The industrials and financials sectors beat expectations, helping offset softer-than-expected results from the consumer staples and technology sectors.

Canadian Quant Factors – The Canadian banks underperformed for most of the year as they reported increasing provisions for nonperforming loans, reflecting forecasts of worsening economic conditions. That said, expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024 helped tame recession fears and eased concerns of slowing loan growth, propelling banks higher in the fourth quarter as they appeared more stable and therefore favourable than prior estimates. The high-quality basket underperformed last quarter as improving risk sentiment in the market reduced the attractiveness of secure companies with lower earnings variability. Furthermore, high dividend payers with solid growth prospects outperformed in the fourth quarter as market participants rewarded companies that demonstrated a strong ability to support future dividends and punished high yielding businesses with less certain financial capabilities.

Views From the Frontline Rates – Interest rates declined sharply in Q4 as inflation continued to trend lower, fears of excess bond supply declined, and the Federal Open Market Committee signaled that the next change to their overnight policy interest rate would likely be lower. Labour market and consumer spending data remain resilient however businesses have indicated slowing across industries, more price-sensitive consumers, rising delinquencies, and concerns about the high cost of debt. Central banks remain committed to achieving their 2% inflation target and most acknowledge that interest rates have likely peaked.

Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) tightened materially over the quarter, with a strong risk on tone to the market as investors priced in lower interest rates in 2024 and a “soft-landing” to economic concerns. Corporate bond supply was well received by the market. On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, and as such, we remain cautious on corporate bonds and have a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable.

Equity – In the U.S., we allocated exposure to value names which outperformed over the quarter as the macroeconomic outlook improved on the backdrop of rate cut expectations. Looking forward, we expect that margins will continue to normalize as Covid-induced pent up demand fades. While we do not forecast margins to compress at an alarming rate, we believe sticky wage and input costs will continue to pressure businesses while consumers exhibit further exhaustion. As such, we are shifting our focus toward the balance between company reinvestment in capital projects and upcoming debt refinancing requirements. In line with this view, we favour businesses with stable cash flows and decreased debt loads as we believe they present an attractive contrarian opportunity if soft-landing projections prove to be overstated. Within Canada, we remain attentive to the inverse movements of ROE relative to financing costs over 2023. With the excess between ROE and financing costs compressing, businesses’ ability to create value appears more stretched than earlier in 2023. Therefore, we continue to favour high quality companies in Canada, which is typically defined by high ROE, stable earnings variability, and low financial leverage. Geographically, the U.S. economy appears to be in healthier condition with inflation easing while employment and output data remain stable and hence, our focus will be on capital expenditures. EAFE – which is generally more economically linked to China than North America – contains a large bucket of stable, high-quality businesses that may benefit from any upside economic surprises out of China. Lastly, through the lens of a Canadian investor, the Loonie’s relative value versus other major currencies presents another resource in our investment mandate to derive excess return.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

EAMG Market Commentary August 2022

August 2022

The S&P 500 fell into bear market territory over the first half of 2022 with the index down -20.6%. This represented a top 10 ranking amongst the most dismal back-to-back quarterly performances going back to 1928. While comparisons have been made to the inflation driven bear market of 1973-74, the economic backdrop today has some significant differences including greater production capacity (factory utilization rates are running about 20% lower vs the 70’s) and a meaningful decline in raw industrial prices which have fallen -11% over the quarter. While these economic anecdotes are potential positives for the future, it’s important to remain cognizant that prices remain elevated.

As such, the US Federal Reserve seems to be taking every opportunity to telegraph their intentions of raising interest rates at the expense of both market and economic performance, so long as inflation remains a threat. Given this hawkish tone, the market narrative has morphed from fears of inflation to a fed driven recession. As a result, the move in the bond market has been swift with the 10-year treasury yield peaking at approximately 3.5% in June to today’s level of 2.7% (lower rates = higher bond prices). This positive bond performance reflects the consensus view that inflation is temporary (2023 CPI forecasts are approximately 3.6% vs the second quarter’s 8.7% CPI reading) and could allow the Fed to adjust their higher interest rate trajectory downward. The Fed also remains confident that a soft landing is achievable, and a recession avoidable.

Investors seem less convinced however, given the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing before, and so it’s no surprise equity markets entered a bear market over the quarter, and currently remain in a technical correction (defined as losses greater than -10%). To better assess future performance, we closely monitor earnings results to understand how companies are navigating these economic trends. With nearly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, the results have been better than expected, but still the EPS beat rate and magnitude of beats (actual vs expectation) remain below 5-year averages. This tells us companies are finding today’s economic conditions more challenging than the recent past. Consumer sectors including marketing, retail, autos and textiles posted the 2nd worst performance vs other sectors while the Financials sector saw the greatest challenges with aggregate EPS falling by -15% year-over-year. Wall Street analysts have started to revise S&P 500 forward growth estimates lower, a trend which we expect will continue for several quarters ahead. The forward (12-month blended) P/E ratio of 17.5 times remains 1.5 multiple points above the long-term average which potentially suggests risks may not be fully priced in.

In terms of the S&P/TSX Composite, after declining nearly -14% in Q2 as recession fears around the world jeopardized the global demand outlook, its’ since rebounded over 4.0%. Still, valuation remains below longer-term averages at 11.8x forward earnings with the heavier weighted Financials and Energy sectors trading at 9.5x and 7.9x, respectively. TSX earnings expectations have stalled as of late but downward revisions are lagging US and European counterparts. Additionally, the domestic labour market remains tight which has allowed the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive rate hike path to curb soaring inflation. For most of 2022 the TSX has benefitted from surging commodity prices but an economic slowdown in China resulting from its commitment to a zero-Covid policy and a potential global recession could prove to be a challenge for the Canadian market.

Equity markets on average lose 30% of their value in recession led bear markets. If we use this as a potential road map, it suggests the S&P 500 could have further to fall. Using past performance as a forward-looking tool however is an imperfect technique and used in isolation of what’s happening today can often mislead.

Accounting for today’s backdrop, we come up with three scenarios of varying probabilities. The first is the most optimistic and includes an engineered soft landing by the Fed, meaning no recession and inflation cools. A less optimistic view is the fed tames inflation with higher interest rates but tips the economy into a mild-to-moderate recession. The outcome would be consumer spending and corporate hiring slow as a result of tighter financial conditions, and therefore financial results are negatively impacted. The least optimistic scenario is one where stagflationary conditions emerge as inflation continues to accelerate at the expense of growth despite higher interest rates, in other words the Fed loses control. The net result would be similar to our second scenario but with much more dire results in terms of unemployment, household spending and impacts to corporate profitability. While we don’t rule out any of the above scenarios completely, we assign the highest probability to the second one where macro economic issues get resolved at some point in the future, but the full effects of inflation and a possible recession have yet to be priced into the market. Currently, this view translates into a slight underweight equity position versus our benchmark with a tilt towards low volatility and defensive strategies along with an overlay of value and dividend paying securities. In other words, we’ve de-risked the portfolios relative to our benchmark to manage potential downside risks but remain meaningfully invested an on absolute basis. As always, time in the market tends to overcome trying to time the market, and so employing a strategic and diversified strategy is often the most prudent approach.

Downloadable Copy

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
[pdf] Segregated Fund Annual Report - December 31, 2025
[pdf] Managing a Retirement Savings Plan tax refund
[pdf] Segregated Fund Semi-annual Report - June 30, 2025