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EAMG Market Commentary August 2022

August 2022
The S&P 500 fell into bear market territory over the first half of 2022 with the index down -20.6%. This represented a top 10 ranking amongst the most dismal back-to-back quarterly performances going back to 1928. While comparisons have been made to the inflation driven bear market of 1973-74, the economic backdrop today has some significant differences including greater production capacity (factory utilization rates are running about 20% lower vs the 70’s) and a meaningful decline in raw industrial prices which have fallen -11% over the quarter. While these economic anecdotes are potential positives for the future, it’s important to remain cognizant that prices remain elevated.
As such, the US Federal Reserve seems to be taking every opportunity to telegraph their intentions of raising interest rates at the expense of both market and economic performance, so long as inflation remains a threat. Given this hawkish tone, the market narrative has morphed from fears of inflation to a fed driven recession. As a result, the move in the bond market has been swift with the 10-year treasury yield peaking at approximately 3.5% in June to today’s level of 2.7% (lower rates = higher bond prices). This positive bond performance reflects the consensus view that inflation is temporary (2023 CPI forecasts are approximately 3.6% vs the second quarter’s 8.7% CPI reading) and could allow the Fed to adjust their higher interest rate trajectory downward. The Fed also remains confident that a soft landing is achievable, and a recession avoidable.
Investors seem less convinced however, given the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing before, and so it’s no surprise equity markets entered a bear market over the quarter, and currently remain in a technical correction (defined as losses greater than -10%). To better assess future performance, we closely monitor earnings results to understand how companies are navigating these economic trends. With nearly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, the results have been better than expected, but still the EPS beat rate and magnitude of beats (actual vs expectation) remain below 5-year averages. This tells us companies are finding today’s economic conditions more challenging than the recent past. Consumer sectors including marketing, retail, autos and textiles posted the 2nd worst performance vs other sectors while the Financials sector saw the greatest challenges with aggregate EPS falling by -15% year-over-year. Wall Street analysts have started to revise S&P 500 forward growth estimates lower, a trend which we expect will continue for several quarters ahead. The forward (12-month blended) P/E ratio of 17.5 times remains 1.5 multiple points above the long-term average which potentially suggests risks may not be fully priced in.
In terms of the S&P/TSX Composite, after declining nearly -14% in Q2 as recession fears around the world jeopardized the global demand outlook, its’ since rebounded over 4.0%. Still, valuation remains below longer-term averages at 11.8x forward earnings with the heavier weighted Financials and Energy sectors trading at 9.5x and 7.9x, respectively. TSX earnings expectations have stalled as of late but downward revisions are lagging US and European counterparts. Additionally, the domestic labour market remains tight which has allowed the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive rate hike path to curb soaring inflation. For most of 2022 the TSX has benefitted from surging commodity prices but an economic slowdown in China resulting from its commitment to a zero-Covid policy and a potential global recession could prove to be a challenge for the Canadian market.
Equity markets on average lose 30% of their value in recession led bear markets. If we use this as a potential road map, it suggests the S&P 500 could have further to fall. Using past performance as a forward-looking tool however is an imperfect technique and used in isolation of what’s happening today can often mislead.
Accounting for today’s backdrop, we come up with three scenarios of varying probabilities. The first is the most optimistic and includes an engineered soft landing by the Fed, meaning no recession and inflation cools. A less optimistic view is the fed tames inflation with higher interest rates but tips the economy into a mild-to-moderate recession. The outcome would be consumer spending and corporate hiring slow as a result of tighter financial conditions, and therefore financial results are negatively impacted. The least optimistic scenario is one where stagflationary conditions emerge as inflation continues to accelerate at the expense of growth despite higher interest rates, in other words the Fed loses control. The net result would be similar to our second scenario but with much more dire results in terms of unemployment, household spending and impacts to corporate profitability. While we don’t rule out any of the above scenarios completely, we assign the highest probability to the second one where macro economic issues get resolved at some point in the future, but the full effects of inflation and a possible recession have yet to be priced into the market. Currently, this view translates into a slight underweight equity position versus our benchmark with a tilt towards low volatility and defensive strategies along with an overlay of value and dividend paying securities. In other words, we’ve de-risked the portfolios relative to our benchmark to manage potential downside risks but remain meaningfully invested an on absolute basis. As always, time in the market tends to overcome trying to time the market, and so employing a strategic and diversified strategy is often the most prudent approach.
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ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. -
Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - September 2020
In this issue:
Enhancements to Equitable EZClaim Mobile
New reports available on EquitableHealth.ca* Indicates content that will be shared with your clients.
Enhancements to Equitable EZClaim® Mobile*
We’ve updated our Equitable EZClaim mobile app to process vision claims faster, to provide a new option for submitting documents and to increase password security.
Faster vision claims processing and payment
Equitable Life now provides faster processing of vision claims submitted via EZClaim Mobile.
This means plan members can find out the status of their vision claim almost instantaneously. And, for approved claims, they will receive payment even sooner – often in as little as 24 hours.
In order to allow for instant processing and faster payment, plan members will be prompted to enter some additional information, including their practitioner’s name, the date of the expense, the type of expense and amount of the expense when submitting their claims for these services.
Equitable Life plan members can submit all vision claims via Equitable EZClaim, including coordination of benefits and Health Care Spending Account claims.
Submit documents from a mobile device
We have added our Document Submission tool to EZClaim Mobile so plan members can conveniently submit documents directly from their mobile device. Applications, change forms, statement of health forms and more can all be easily uploaded whenever and wherever they are.
Improved security with stronger passwords
To help you, your clients and plan members better protect personal information, we have increased the maximum length of passwords for both EZClaim Online and EZClaim Mobile from 12 to 32 characters. This longer character limit makes it easier to create stronger and more secure passwords.
There is no change for plan members, plan administrators or advisors. All existing passwords will continue to function. However, if you choose to update your password you will now be able to choose longer passwords or passphrases.
Why should I change my password?
Changing your password frequently helps keep your information safe. The longer and more random the password, the more secure it is. To improve security even more, a passphrase is recommended.
A passphrase is a series of words or other text used like a password. Because it is much longer, a passphrase is more secure. Although the words in the phrase may be meaningful to you and easy to remember, they can be random enough that the full phrase is difficult for someone else to guess. It’s even better if you use numbers or other characters in your passphrase.
Your passphrase should be:
- Long enough to be hard to guess;
- Not a famous quotation;
- Easy to remember and type; and
- Not used in multiple places.
To change your password:
- Log in to EquitableHealth.ca
- Click on My Information > User Profile
- Click Edit
- Confirm your information and enter your new password
- Click Save
We will be announcing this enhancement to plan members on EquitableHealth.ca.
New reports available on EquitableHealth.ca*
Plan administrators and advisors with reporting access can now download three additional reports any time via the plan administrator and advisor websites on EquitableHealth.ca:
- Premium and Tax – This report provides a breakdown of premiums and taxes paid per plan member for any specific time period for all applicable benefits.
- Occupation and Earnings – This report provides current plan member earnings and occupation information and gives plan administrators an efficient way to report updates to us.
- Employee listing – This report lists all plan members’ information, including name, certificate number, date of birth, province, occupation and salary, as well as benefit coverage currently in place and HCSA allocations.
These reports can be downloaded in Excel format for easy updating, filtering or sorting.
For more information, please contact your Client Relationship Specialist.
*Indicates content that will be shared with your clients
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin – May 2021
In this issue:
- Graduating dependents losing coverage?*
- New Brunswick expands the use of biosimilars*
- Proposed changes to federal recovery and EI benefits*
- Removal of plan administrator access to update plan member banking*
- BioScript recognized as one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies*
Graduating dependents losing coverage?
Let plan members know about Coverage2go
As we reach the end of spring, some of your clients’ plan members may have dependents who are graduating from university or college and will no longer be eligible for coverage under the benefits plan.
Fortunately, we offer Coverage2go®. It allows individuals who are losing their group coverage to purchase personal month-to-month health and dental coverage that is affordable, reliable and works like their previous group benefits plan. They can choose the level of coverage and protection that suits their personal situation.
There are no medical questions – they simply need to apply within 60 days of losing their health coverage under their group benefits plan.*
Help your plan members and their dependents who are losing coverage by letting them know about Coverage2go. They can visit our website to learn more about Coverage2go and to get a quote.
*Quebec residents are not eligible for Coverage2goNew Brunswick expands the use of biosimilars
The New Brunswick government recently announced that it will be implementing a biosimilar transition program.
Patients using originator biologic drugs for diseases such as inflammatory arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, diabetes and psoriasis, will have until November 30, 2021 to switch to the biosimilar version of their medications in order to maintain coverage under the province’s public drug plans. This process will be completed in consultation with the patients’ physicians.
Biosimilars are highly similar to the drugs they are based on and Health Canada considers them to be equally safe and effective for approved conditions.
Equitable Life® actively monitors and investigates all biosimilar policy changes and the ongoing evolution of biosimilar drugs entering Canada. We will keep you informed of any impact on private drug plans and how we are responding.Proposed changes to federal recovery and EI benefits
In its recent 2021 budget, the federal government proposed a variety of changes to its benefit programs.
The proposed changes include providing up to 12 additional weeks of the Canada Recovery Benefit to a maximum of 50 weeks. The first 12 weeks of this benefit would be paid at $500 per week and the remaining eight weeks at $300 per week.
Multiple changes have also been proposed to make Employment Insurance (EI) more accessible to Canadians. The changes include: maintaining uniform access to EI benefits across all regions, supporting multiple job holders and those who switch jobs by ensuring that all insurable hours and employment count towards their eligibility, and simplifying many rules around EI to ensure Canadians can receive benefits sooner. It has also been proposed that the regular EI benefits be extended to no later than November 20, 2021, if needed.
We are analyzing the impact these changes may have to disability benefits. We will provide more details later in the year.Removal of plan administrator access to update plan member banking
In early June, plan administrators will no longer be able to update banking information for their plan members on EquitableHealth.ca after their initial enrolment. This change has been made to allow plan members to have full control over where they want their claim payments deposited.
Plan members can update their banking information online through their plan member web portal or through the EZClaim mobile app. They will continue to be notified via email if and when they make any changes.BioScript Solutions recognized as one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies
Congratulations to our partner, BioScript Solutions, for being recognized as one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies of 2021 by Deloitte.
We have partnered with BioScript since 2016 for our Specialty Drug Preferred Pharmacy Network (PPN). This partnership offers cost savings while providing comprehensive, best-in-class patient care.
BioScript is one of Canada’s leading specialty pharmacies and recently celebrated its 20th anniversary.
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin – January 2022
Short-term disability coverage for plan members with COVID-19*
Please note: This announcement applies only to groups with short-term disability coverage through Equitable Life
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, and the situation evolves, we continue to adjust our practices to ensure ongoing support for our plan members.
PCR tests no longer required for COVID-related STD claims
Some provinces have recently restricted access to COVID-19 PCR testing to only high-risk individuals. To ensure your clients' eligible plan members receive their short-term disability benefits in a timely manner, we no longer require a positive PCR test for plan members submitting COVID-19-related STD claims.
Plan members who are experiencing symptoms of COVID-19 or who have tested positive for the virus (either with a PCR test or with an at-home rapid test) and are unable to work from home should complete the Short Term Disability Plan Member COVID-19 Claim Form (#421A).
They should indicate the date of the onset of symptoms or date of their positive test result. Where applicable, they should also indicate the date they have been cleared by public health to end their self-isolation. The form includes an attestation that the information they have provided is accurate.
The employer needs to complete the Short Term Disability Employer COVID-19 Claim Form (#421B). They should indicate the expected return-to-work date according to their provincial health guidelines, or using the date provided by a public health official.
Waiting periods for COVID-related STD claims
To support your clients' plan members during the initial stages of the pandemic, we waived the STD waiting period if a plan member’s absence was due to symptoms or a diagnosis of COVID-19. Now that COVID-19 has become the “new normal,” we are returning to our standard practices and treating the virus as we would any other illness.
Effective Jan. 1, 2022, standard waiting periods will apply for COVID-related STD claims, according to the terms of the Group policy. This ensures that all plan members submitting a STD claim are treated fairly, no matter what the cause of the claim.
Eligible plan members will receive STD benefits up to a maximum of 10 days from the date of the onset of symptoms or a positive COVID-19 test result, minus the waiting period.
For example, if the plan has a five-day waiting period, and the plan member returns to work nine days after a positive test result, they would be eligible for four days of benefits payments.
If the claimant is still unwell after 10 days, then the standard Short Term Disability Claim Form (#421) needs to be completed.
If a plan member is admitted to hospital, benefits will be paid following the waiting period applicable to hospital claims. -
Make room for more EDO room
Effective June 26, 2021, a term rider added to an Equimax Estate Builder® or Equimax Wealth Accumulator® policy may allow for an increase to the maximum Excelerator Deposit Option (EDO) payment limit.
Highlights:
● This enhancement will apply to adult single life Equimax Estate Builder and Wealth Accumulator policies where the Owner Signature Date on the application for insurance is June 26, 2021 or after.
● For the term rider to increase the EDO payment limit, it must be issued at the same time as the Equimax coverage.
● Term rider EDO payment limit assumes the term rider is held at least 10 years.
● The illustration system and EZcomplete application will calculate the maximum EDO payment including any increase from a term rider.
● Policies already issued do not qualify.
Full details about the changes can be found in the transition rules.
Who can benefit from this product enhancement?
Your clients who have a temporary insurance need and add a term rider to their Equimax plan may be able to take advantage of the additional exempt room and higher EDO payment limits to build the policy values. Make Equimax® your first choice for your clients’ whole life insurance needs.
New Illustration software is now available
The updated illustration software will be available for download after 9 a.m. ET on Friday, June 25, 2021.
Want more information?
● Learn more about the changes and transition rules
● Contact your Regional Sales Manager for more information on these changes and other sales ideas
® denotes a registered trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada. -
EquiLiving offers more options to clients facing a covered Critical Illness condition
Consider these statistics…1 in 2 Canadians will develop cancer in their lifetimes1. They’re just numbers…until the day someone you know is diagnosed, someone who didn’t see it coming. Then it becomes very real - no longer incidence statistics, but costs. Today more people than ever are surviving and living with not only just the physical, but also the financial effects of their illness.
We’re there to help when illness strikes
NEW! EquiLiving® plans and riders have recently been enhanced including:
● 20 pay options with coverage to age 75 or coverage for life
● Support from Cloud DX to help monitor a client’s well-being from treatment to recovery.
● Added Acquired Brain Injury as a covered critical condition
● 30-day survival period removed for all non-cardiovascular covered conditions
● No age restriction to claim for Loss of Independent Existence (LOIE)
● EquiLiving Benefit now pays the higher of the EquiLiving Benefit or the Return of Premium Rider Benefit (not including Return of Premium on Death)
● And so much more …
Learn more
● CI product enhancement video
● Visit our launch event page with product change details and more
● Marketing Materials
Please contact your Regional Sales Manager for more information.
1 www.cancer.ca
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The value of Equitable Life’s EZcomplete online application for Pivotal Select
Necessity is the mother of invention. And COVID-19 has taken Equitable Life’s® EZcomplete® online application to the next level. Prior to the pandemic, EZcomplete was touted as being convenient and easy to use. Well, it is. But now…it is so much more.
Whether secure in an office or safe at home, EZcomplete’s non face-to-face capabilities include an alternative to physical verification. EZcomplete simply requires verification of ID using a third-party service provider. The third-party service provider completes the verification behind the scenes using information that was already required to complete an application. By removing the physical ID requirements, the ID verification process has been automated and simplified.
EZcomplete’s electronic signature functionality is also easy and secure. To enable a remote signature, your client just provides an e-mail address. Your client will receive a link and security code that you provide. The client enters the code, reviews the application and e-signs the documents.
Step by step directions ensure you have the right details without any confusing or unnecessary questions. Highlighted fields alert you to any missing information, eliminating any extra work or effort. The immediate processing also helps make it an attractive resource.
Whether selling segregated funds face to face or from the comfort of home, Equitable Life’s EZcomplete online application and Pivotal Select™ segregated fund line up provide the solution for even the most rattled and weary investor. Learn more, visit EquiNet or contact your Regional Investment Sales Manager.
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Updated Temporary Resident Guidelines
We are excited to announce that we have liberalized our Temporary Resident Guidelines.
● The validity period requirement of the supporting documentation for all Temporary Residents has been lowered to three months
● Student Visa holders attending post secondary educational institutions may qualify for a total coverage of $500,000, and – if employed – even for $1,000,000
We will now ask for the following information:
● Information regarding the educational institution and programme for all amounts over $250,000 (typically includes online validation)
● A maximum of $500,000 may be available for students enrolled in professional programmes, as defined in our Student Financial Guidelines (e.g., medical, law, etc.)
● A maximum of $1,000,000 may be available for students who are legally and gainfully employed. For this, we require proof of current employment and the CRA Notice of Assessment for the previous year. Should both be satisfactory, the allowable face amount will be calculated according to the published Work Permit guidelines. If applying for over $500,000, a minimum one-year period after arrival to Canada is required.
● Students enrolled in elementary or secondary school are eligible for a total coverage of $250,000. Exceptions may apply if the parents are insured or applying for minimum $1,000,000. We will confirm the parents’ respective occupations, incomes, and residency statuses
Read more about the details of the changes in the updated Residency Guidelines form 1530.
Please contact your Regional Sales Manager for more information. -
SMS is Available for Individual Insurance Application Updates
If you haven’t opted in to receive your client's application status via text message, give it a try on your next application.
When you submit a client’s application, you can opt-in to receive text message updates for your new business applications. No need to log in to your advisor portal to know exactly what is going on with a case.
Once you opt-in to receive text messages, you will receive short text updates for your new business applications. That’s a text message when:- The application is received,
- Equitable Life has made a decision,
- The policy is ready for delivery, and
- The commissions have been triggered.
In addition to these messages, Equitable Life will continue to send proactive emails detailing outstanding requirements.
Be sure to opt-in to text messages when you complete your next application on EZComplete®.
We’ve recently made a number of changes to make doing business with us easy. Learn more about SMS and other ways we are making it easy to do business with us.
® denotes a registered trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.