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EAMG Market Commentary August 2022
August 2022
The S&P 500 fell into bear market territory over the first half of 2022 with the index down -20.6%. This represented a top 10 ranking amongst the most dismal back-to-back quarterly performances going back to 1928. While comparisons have been made to the inflation driven bear market of 1973-74, the economic backdrop today has some significant differences including greater production capacity (factory utilization rates are running about 20% lower vs the 70’s) and a meaningful decline in raw industrial prices which have fallen -11% over the quarter. While these economic anecdotes are potential positives for the future, it’s important to remain cognizant that prices remain elevated.
As such, the US Federal Reserve seems to be taking every opportunity to telegraph their intentions of raising interest rates at the expense of both market and economic performance, so long as inflation remains a threat. Given this hawkish tone, the market narrative has morphed from fears of inflation to a fed driven recession. As a result, the move in the bond market has been swift with the 10-year treasury yield peaking at approximately 3.5% in June to today’s level of 2.7% (lower rates = higher bond prices). This positive bond performance reflects the consensus view that inflation is temporary (2023 CPI forecasts are approximately 3.6% vs the second quarter’s 8.7% CPI reading) and could allow the Fed to adjust their higher interest rate trajectory downward. The Fed also remains confident that a soft landing is achievable, and a recession avoidable.
Investors seem less convinced however, given the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing before, and so it’s no surprise equity markets entered a bear market over the quarter, and currently remain in a technical correction (defined as losses greater than -10%). To better assess future performance, we closely monitor earnings results to understand how companies are navigating these economic trends. With nearly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, the results have been better than expected, but still the EPS beat rate and magnitude of beats (actual vs expectation) remain below 5-year averages. This tells us companies are finding today’s economic conditions more challenging than the recent past. Consumer sectors including marketing, retail, autos and textiles posted the 2nd worst performance vs other sectors while the Financials sector saw the greatest challenges with aggregate EPS falling by -15% year-over-year. Wall Street analysts have started to revise S&P 500 forward growth estimates lower, a trend which we expect will continue for several quarters ahead. The forward (12-month blended) P/E ratio of 17.5 times remains 1.5 multiple points above the long-term average which potentially suggests risks may not be fully priced in.
In terms of the S&P/TSX Composite, after declining nearly -14% in Q2 as recession fears around the world jeopardized the global demand outlook, its’ since rebounded over 4.0%. Still, valuation remains below longer-term averages at 11.8x forward earnings with the heavier weighted Financials and Energy sectors trading at 9.5x and 7.9x, respectively. TSX earnings expectations have stalled as of late but downward revisions are lagging US and European counterparts. Additionally, the domestic labour market remains tight which has allowed the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive rate hike path to curb soaring inflation. For most of 2022 the TSX has benefitted from surging commodity prices but an economic slowdown in China resulting from its commitment to a zero-Covid policy and a potential global recession could prove to be a challenge for the Canadian market.
Equity markets on average lose 30% of their value in recession led bear markets. If we use this as a potential road map, it suggests the S&P 500 could have further to fall. Using past performance as a forward-looking tool however is an imperfect technique and used in isolation of what’s happening today can often mislead.
Accounting for today’s backdrop, we come up with three scenarios of varying probabilities. The first is the most optimistic and includes an engineered soft landing by the Fed, meaning no recession and inflation cools. A less optimistic view is the fed tames inflation with higher interest rates but tips the economy into a mild-to-moderate recession. The outcome would be consumer spending and corporate hiring slow as a result of tighter financial conditions, and therefore financial results are negatively impacted. The least optimistic scenario is one where stagflationary conditions emerge as inflation continues to accelerate at the expense of growth despite higher interest rates, in other words the Fed loses control. The net result would be similar to our second scenario but with much more dire results in terms of unemployment, household spending and impacts to corporate profitability. While we don’t rule out any of the above scenarios completely, we assign the highest probability to the second one where macro economic issues get resolved at some point in the future, but the full effects of inflation and a possible recession have yet to be priced into the market. Currently, this view translates into a slight underweight equity position versus our benchmark with a tilt towards low volatility and defensive strategies along with an overlay of value and dividend paying securities. In other words, we’ve de-risked the portfolios relative to our benchmark to manage potential downside risks but remain meaningfully invested an on absolute basis. As always, time in the market tends to overcome trying to time the market, and so employing a strategic and diversified strategy is often the most prudent approach.
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ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. - [pdf] Payout Annuity Rate Guarantees
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - September 2020
In this issue:
Enhancements to Equitable EZClaim Mobile
New reports available on EquitableHealth.ca* Indicates content that will be shared with your clients.
Enhancements to Equitable EZClaim® Mobile*
We’ve updated our Equitable EZClaim mobile app to process vision claims faster, to provide a new option for submitting documents and to increase password security.
Faster vision claims processing and payment
Equitable Life now provides faster processing of vision claims submitted via EZClaim Mobile.
This means plan members can find out the status of their vision claim almost instantaneously. And, for approved claims, they will receive payment even sooner – often in as little as 24 hours.
In order to allow for instant processing and faster payment, plan members will be prompted to enter some additional information, including their practitioner’s name, the date of the expense, the type of expense and amount of the expense when submitting their claims for these services.
Equitable Life plan members can submit all vision claims via Equitable EZClaim, including coordination of benefits and Health Care Spending Account claims.
Submit documents from a mobile device
We have added our Document Submission tool to EZClaim Mobile so plan members can conveniently submit documents directly from their mobile device. Applications, change forms, statement of health forms and more can all be easily uploaded whenever and wherever they are.
Improved security with stronger passwords
To help you, your clients and plan members better protect personal information, we have increased the maximum length of passwords for both EZClaim Online and EZClaim Mobile from 12 to 32 characters. This longer character limit makes it easier to create stronger and more secure passwords.
There is no change for plan members, plan administrators or advisors. All existing passwords will continue to function. However, if you choose to update your password you will now be able to choose longer passwords or passphrases.
Why should I change my password?
Changing your password frequently helps keep your information safe. The longer and more random the password, the more secure it is. To improve security even more, a passphrase is recommended.
A passphrase is a series of words or other text used like a password. Because it is much longer, a passphrase is more secure. Although the words in the phrase may be meaningful to you and easy to remember, they can be random enough that the full phrase is difficult for someone else to guess. It’s even better if you use numbers or other characters in your passphrase.
Your passphrase should be:
- Long enough to be hard to guess;
- Not a famous quotation;
- Easy to remember and type; and
- Not used in multiple places.
To change your password:
- Log in to EquitableHealth.ca
- Click on My Information > User Profile
- Click Edit
- Confirm your information and enter your new password
- Click Save
We will be announcing this enhancement to plan members on EquitableHealth.ca.
New reports available on EquitableHealth.ca*
Plan administrators and advisors with reporting access can now download three additional reports any time via the plan administrator and advisor websites on EquitableHealth.ca:
- Premium and Tax – This report provides a breakdown of premiums and taxes paid per plan member for any specific time period for all applicable benefits.
- Occupation and Earnings – This report provides current plan member earnings and occupation information and gives plan administrators an efficient way to report updates to us.
- Employee listing – This report lists all plan members’ information, including name, certificate number, date of birth, province, occupation and salary, as well as benefit coverage currently in place and HCSA allocations.
These reports can be downloaded in Excel format for easy updating, filtering or sorting.
For more information, please contact your Client Relationship Specialist.
*Indicates content that will be shared with your clients
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Special 5% rate for clients until Pivotal Select FHSA is available
Great news for clients saving for their first home! For a limited time, clients who intend on setting up a First Home Savings Account (FHSA) with Equitable Life® can deposit money to a Guaranteed Interest Account (GIA) now and enjoy a special rate of 5.00%.1
The special rate applies only if the client transfers the funds to an FHSA by December 28, 2023; otherwise, the standard Daily Interest Account (DIA) rate will be applied to those funds.
Here’s how to take advantage of this special rate:
For New Clients:- Complete an application for a non-registered GIA. On the application select “Daily Interest Account” as the investment instructions and write the amount to be deposited (minimum $500, maximum $8,000).
- In the Special Instructions section of the application, write “FHSA”.
- The GIA application form (799) can be found here
For Existing Clients - must have a GIA (Compound Interest Only) policy:- Submit a letter of direction or complete the Investment Direction form requesting to deposit funds to the DIA for the FHSA promotion (minimum $500, maximum $8,000)
- Complete sections 1, 3, 4, 12 and 13 of the Investment Direction form, and in the Special Instructions area, write “FHSA”.
- The Investment Direction form (693ANN) can be found here
The GDA will be a non-registered account and any interest earned will be taxable.
Once the Equitable Life FHSA is available:- Submit a Pivotal Select™ FHSA application, and request to transfer the funds from the GDA to the Pivotal Select policy.2 No Market Value Adjustment fees will be charged.
- In the Special Instructions section, indicate the source of funds to be “FHSA promotion funds” and provide instructions on where to direct any excess funds in the GIA if applicable.
- The funds will be transferred to the FHSA.3
- Any excess funds over $8,000 will be returned to the client as a direct deposit, a cheque, or the client can keep the GIA open.
This is a great opportunity for clients to start saving for their first home today while earning an excellent rate. The advisor receives a reduced upfront commission4 for the pre-FHSA deposit to the GDA, in addition to the commission that will be earned by moving the funds to the Pivotal Select FHSA.
This special savings rate promotion is available until the launch date of Equitable Life’s FHSA unless the promotion is ended on an earlier date at Equitable Life’s discretion. The maximum amount on which a client can receive the special savings rate is $8,000.
Clients who do not transfer funds to the FHSA on or before December 28, 2023 will not receive the promotional rate. We will transfer the funds from the special GDA to the DIA account effective as of the date of deposit. As a result, the interest received by the client from the date of deposit to December 28, 2023 will be the DIA rate rather than the promotional rate.
Questions? Please see our FAQ
For more information, please contact your Regional Investment Sales Manager. Additional details about the FHSA can be found on the Government of Canada’s website.
® denotes a trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
1 The pre-FHSA special saving rate of 5.00% per year compounds daily and takes effect from the date Equitable Life receives the deposit and will end on the date the FHSA Pivotal Select segregated fund product is launched later this year (December 28, 2023 at the latest). In the unlikely event Equitable Life’s Pivotal Select FHSA is unavailable in 2023, the funds subject to the promotion will earn the 5.00% rate for 1 year from the date of deposit through maturity in 2024.
2 The FHSA promotion will only be available as a Pivotal Select Segregated Fund policy. Clients can open a FHSA only if they meet the eligibility criteria when they sign the application.
3The funds in the Guaranteed Interest Account will be transferred to the FHSA in the form of a contribution of up to $8,000 on or after the date the client signs the FHSA application form. Clients must open a FHSA to receive the special bonus interest.
4 Commission of 0.20% paid upfront for money received and deposited to the policy by September 29, 2023. 0.05% paid upfront for money received and deposited after September 29, 2023, and the earlier of the promotion termination or December 28, 2023. Commissions are paid through an adjustment to our current 40bps commission on our one-year GDA by way of a chargeback reducing the commission to the rate stated in this note.
Posted June 1, 2023 - [pdf] Policy summary premium error
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