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Are your clients looking for more Tax-Free Savings Account contribution room?
Good news! With the start of the new year comes new additional contribution room.

A Tax-Free Savings Account is a great option for clients to grow their savings with the flexibility to access their money when they need it, before or during retirement. Encourage your clients to start saving today!

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Message from Ron Beettam
As COVID-19 continues to spread, we want to reassure you that we remain ready and committed to support you and your clients.

We have a robust and well-tested business continuity plan in place and our business is almost 100% digital. Almost 90% of our employees are now working remotely from home and are maintaining the high level of service you have come to expect from us. We still have a fully functioning Document Services Centre that is managing our incoming and outgoing mail. Our sales and customer service teams remain open to support you and your clients.

Equitable Life’s online application process, EZcomplete®, offers non face-to-face capability and continues to be your go-to resource for managing your business virtually. We are receiving a record number of online applications and are committed to helping you maintain a certain degree of daily activity. EZcomplete® non-face-to-face works for all life, critical illness and segregated fund applications.

Advisors will be pleased to know that we have increased non-medical limits for life insurance. We are also looking at other underwriting changes, digital delivery of life insurance contracts and additional digital payment options.

Our Savings & Retirement advisors will find our new Transaction Authorization Requirements table a valuable resource for submitting forms and documents. Can’t meet with your client in person to get a signature? Not to worry. You can have your client sign a letter of direction and take a picture to authorize a number of transactions.

Transacting in a non face-to-face environment can be a challenge but we will continue to revisit existing processes and look for ways to modify requirements to help you to continue managing your business. All of us are facing an unprecedented number of urgent situations where there is no established protocol. Our commitment to you and your clients is to respond quickly, and to be flexible where we can, tailoring solutions to specific needs.

To stay up-to-date, please refer to Equitable Life’s COVID-19 information page. There you will find the latest information for all lines of business.

As the global situation continues to evolve rapidly, we ask for your patience as our solutions also evolve quickly and accordingly. Rest assured that Equitable Life is unwavering in our support, and we will be here to help you protect what matters most to Canadians.

Ron Beettam, President and CEO

Market Commentary January 2026

Key Takeaways

Full year 2025:
• Government policy was very impactful for markets in 2025. U.S. trade policy unsettled markets in the first half of the year, as the U.S. implemented significant tariffs and engaged in tough negotiations with major trading partners. However, by mid-year, fiscal policy provided positive support for markets, particularly with the passing in the U.S. of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July.
• Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) continued to attract investment, particularly in the United States. This investment provided strong support for equity market performance.
• Global equity markets delivered strong performance, most notably Canadian equities, which returned an impressive 31.7%.
• Positive risk appetite supported solid corporate bond performance, which outpaced government bonds.

Fourth Quarter:
• U.S. equities advanced at a slower pace in the fourth quarter after a strong surge in the prior two quarters. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities, fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors.
• Canadian bond markets posted slightly negative returns during the quarter as higher interest rates weighed on performance. Strong corporate bond performance partially offset weakness in government bonds.
• Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered policy interest rates during the quarter, with Canada dropping its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and the U.S. dropping its policy rate by 50 basis points. Both central banks signalled a cautious approach for further easing.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: The U.S. economy continued to expand at a moderate pace, supported by strong consumer spending and AI investment. However, job growth slowed and the unemployment rate has edged higher. Inflation remains higher than the 2% target, despite easing trends. While some U.S. trading partners have made trade agreements, uncertainty remains regarding reciprocal tariffs, with a case before the U.S. Supreme Court as to their legality. The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate twice during the quarter, first in October and again in December, to reach a target rate of 3.50% to 3.75%. Chair Powell cited downside risks to employment as a key factor behind the rate cut decisions and emphasized that officials are “well positioned” to wait and assess how the economy evolves.

In Canada, U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber have weighed heavily on these sectors. While most goods continue to enter the U.S. tariff-free due to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (“CUSMA”), broader uncertainty around U.S. trade policy is dampening business investment. Third quarter GDP growth exceeded market expectations, but growth tracked weaker in the fourth quarter amid the trade disputes. The labour market showed signs of improvement in the fourth quarter after earlier weakness. Headline inflation has hovered near the 2% target, while core inflation remained persistent. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in October and made no changes in December. Going into 2026, trade uncertainty remains with the CUSMA up for renegotiation. The Bank of Canada reiterated its readiness to respond if new shocks or accumulating evidence materially alter the outlook.

Bond Markets: During the quarter, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned -0.3% as interest rates on Canadian bonds rose (bond prices fall as interest rates go up). The increase reflected reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and a higher risk premium demanded by investors for long-term debt. Although interest rates increased, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to move lower. These lower credit spreads resulted in positive overall returns for corporate bonds in the quarter, despite the overall bond market recording a loss. Tightening credit spreads reflected the continued risk-on tone to the market. Despite some volatility, lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now rallied back to the tightest spreads since the 2008 financial crisis, nearing the tightest spreads in history. Despite expensive levels, investors remain buyers of corporate bonds, evidenced not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to set new records, with an impressive $37.5 billion in new issuance in the fourth quarter helping 2025 to exceed the prior year’s issuance. All told, 2025 saw an impressive $160 billion in new issuance via 358 new bonds, versus 2024’s prior record of $139 billion from 301 new bonds.

Stock Markets: The fourth quarter marked a pivotal shift in the global equity market rally of 2025. After three quarters of a highly concentrated, tech-led rally in the U.S., cyclical and valueoriented sectors outperformed in Q4. The S&P 500 advanced at a slower 2.7% in the fourth quarter, reflecting a market that is recalibrating after an extended period of concentrated gains. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities as the S&P/TSX Composite returned 6.3% in the quarter, finishing the year with an impressive 31.7% return. That was its strongest annual gain since 2009. The strong returns in Canadian equities were fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials sector, supported by soaring gold and base metal prices, and reinforced by the resilience of the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors. Internationally, developed markets in Europe and Asia gained 6.2% for the quarter, bringing their annual return to 21.2%. This move signals a healthy rebalancing as global investors rotated into attractivelyvalued international equities to hedge against elevated U.S. valuations. Capital is now flowing toward regions and sectors offering stronger earnings visibility and defensive characteristics rather than purely speculative growth.

U.S. Equities: U.S. equities entered the fourth quarter at elevated valuations. Despite fundamentally strong earnings growth, stock prices struggled to move higher because investor expectations were for even stronger growth. Technology remained the primary driver of earnings, but the sector faced intense pressure to prove its value. Specifically, investors questioned the pace at which companies could convert AI investments into actual revenue. Investors also worried that growth remained concentrated among too few companies rather than more broadly across the economy. Sector-wise, Communication Services emerged as the top performer for the full year due to significant margin expansion. This was driven by a wave of media-related merger activity and the successful use of AI to make digital advertising more efficient. Industrials also advanced as new tax incentives for domestic manufacturing boosted factory orders. Nevertheless, the market remains concentrated with the top ten stocks representing nearly 40% of the S&P 500 Index. This level of concentration makes the market vulnerable to sudden price swings. As inflation moderated and the Federal Reserve cut rates in December, investors shifted toward more defensive sectors and international equities. This rotation signals a preference for companies with stable cash flows over speculative growth.

Canadian Equities: The Canadian market was a global standout during the quarter, supported by lower borrowing costs, a stable Financials sector, and rally in the prices of metals (including gold, but also base metals like nickel and copper). The Materials sector led the way as a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions pushed gold to a record of US$4,550 per ounce in late December. For major mining companies, these prices generated record cash flow allowing them to raise dividends and buy back shares. The Bank of Canada interest rate cut supported both the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors, reducing borrowing costs, and helping banks maintain stable net interest margins. The Big Six Canadian Banks delivered strong earnings results in Q4. These were driven by a surge in capital markets activity and better-than-expected provisions for credit losses, as the economy remained resilient. Trading at 17 times forward earnings, the Canadian market appears attractively valued, prompting investors to shift away from U.S. volatility toward more tangible assets and reliable dividends.

Bottom line: The final quarter of 2025 saw a notable shift in investor positioning. As recession fears receded, attention turned to navigating a period of moderate economic expansion. In Canada, capital flowed into profitable, cash flow-generating companies in the Financials and Material sectors. Momentum in U.S. equities slowed as investors reduced risk amid caution around AI developments. Although major indices remain highly valued, opportunities persist in sectors and regions with stable cash flows and pricing power.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Investments	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Investments	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Public Investments	Jin Li Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM Sr. Quantitative Analyst	Andrew Vermeer, CFA Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Edward Ng Cheng Hin Analyst, Credit	Kate (Huyen) Vinh Analyst, Equity	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

Market Commentary January 2025

Key Takeaways

Full year 2024:

Despite reductions of policy-setting interest rates by central banks, yields on longer-term bonds finished the year higher than they started the year.
Positive risk appetite helped corporate bonds perform well, led by lower-quality issuers.
Global equity markets posted robust returns, with U.S. equities outperforming other developed markets, driven by heavy concentration into the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks.

Fourth Quarter:

Central banks continued to ease monetary policy in Q4, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy interest rate more aggressively than did the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The Republican victory across both the executive and legislative branches in the U.S. ignited expectations of economic growth, pushing bond yields and stock prices higher.
Risk sentiment helped corporate bonds continue to outperform government bonds.
Markets remained volatile: while North American stock markets continued to outperform most international indices, Canadian stocks managed to outperform U.S. stocks in Q4, as sources of returns in the U.S. narrowed into year-end.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace in Q4. The rate of inflation continued to slow but remained above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, as the unemployment rate has remained low compared to historical norms. A decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party further boosted expectations for continued growth. The return of the President-elect’s old tactics of threatening tariffs to influence trade, security, and drug control re-introduced some economic uncertainty, particularly regarding the potential return of inflationary pressures. Those concerns prompted the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its policy easing, as it lowered rates by just 0.25% at each of its two meetings in Q4, following the 0.50% cut in September. Throughout 2024, the Fed reduced rates by a total of 100 basis points, from 5.50% to 4.50%. Nonetheless, bond yields were significantly higher for most maturity terms during the fourth quarter as the market priced in not just a stronger economy than had been the expectation during Q3, implying less interest rate cuts by the Fed, but also growing concerns about the government deficit.

In Canada, growth remained positive during 2024 and improved a bit to close the year, but continued to fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations. Similarly, inflation came in lower than expected and below the Bank’s 2% target. The labour market continued to soften for much of the year, with employment growth falling short of labour force growth. The weakness in the labour market and economy, along with tamed inflation, prompted the Central Bank to cut rates at the pace of 50 basis points at each of its two meetings in Q4. For the full year, the Bank of Canada ended up lowering its policy rate by a total of 175 basis points, from 5% to 3.25%. The market has been expecting the Bank of Canada to need to continue cutting rates due to slower economic growth in Canada, but the fear of a possible trade war with the U.S. has made the economic outlook somewhat murkier.

Bond Markets: During the quarter, yields on mid- to long-term bonds in Canada rose in sympathy with rising bond yields in the U.S. However, bond yields in Canada rose to a lesser extent, and yields on shorter-term bonds were actually little changed over the quarter. The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was basically flat during Q4 and posted a return of 4.2% for the full year. Although interest rates rose, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to grind lower, helping corporate bonds post positive overall returns in the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels similar to those experienced in 2021, when markets did quite well after the pandemic. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continued to be very robust in the quarter, with $30 billion in new issuance, resulting in a record-breaking year with $141 billion of new issuance in 2024. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.

Chart2-(1).png

Stock Markets – Overview: Trump’s presidential victory and the Republican party’s ‘red sweep’ in the Senate and House of Representatives sparked optimism surrounding economic growth and a new era of U.S. exceptionalism. As a result, North American equity markets extended their rally in Q4, capping off a year of robust returns. The S&P 500 returned 2.4%, bringing its year-to-date return to 25%. Within the U.S., the broadening of returns paused during the quarter as the chase for growth intensified, with mega-cap growth names like Tesla driving performance. Canadian equities surprisingly outperformed the U.S. market over the quarter, returning 3.8% in Q4, despite threats of widespread tariff negotiations looming on the horizon that could negatively impact Canadian corporate fundamentals. At a sector level, strength in the technology, financials, and energy sectors more than offset weakness in telecommunication companies as well as in the materials sector. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) underperformed last quarter as deteriorating Chinese growth prospects and weak economic growth in the Eurozone weighed on equities. Notably, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities benefitted from a rebounding U.S. dollar with the dollar index adding over 7.6% in Q4.

Chart3-(1).png

U.S. Equities: U.S. equities remain supported by resilient margins and strong corporate earnings growth with over 70% of businesses surpassing bottom-line expectations last quarter. We remain attentive to the broadening of earnings performance and note that this trend has continued, albeit at a normalized pace versus prior quarters. More specifically, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000, excluding the Magnificent 7, posted median earnings growth of 6% last quarter, down from nearly 9% in Q3 but comparable to Q2 (6%). Looking forward to 2025, analysts continue to forecast U.S. exceptionalism, with forecasts of ~12% earnings growth.

Following Trump’s presidential victory, stocks with greater sensitivity to the U.S. economy, such as small cap businesses, benefitted from expectations of domestically focused growth initiatives. However, stubborn inflation and expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the trend of broadening sources of returns pause into the end of the year. Instead, market concentration reaccelerated with investors rushing back towards mega-cap growth stocks. In fact, Tesla – which is approximately 2% of the S&P 500 Index by market cap – contributed approximately one-third of the total index return in Q4, while the Mag 7 as a group contributed over 100% of total returns. In other words, U.S. large cap companies excluding the Magnificent 7 declined in aggregate last quarter.

Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of cooling inflation and below-trend growth, the Bank of Canada continued to loosen monetary policy. As a result, Canadian companies
showed signs of improving efficiency with return on equity – a gauge of corporate profitability – improving versus prior quarters. Under these conditions, investors remained focused on higher quality, high-dividend paying companies – particularly within the financial sector. Relative to prior quarters, this group witnessed greater contribution out of non-bank financials (such as asset managers and insurance companies), as the premium investors were willing to pay for Canadian banks remained elevated. Across other sectors, the energy sector had a positive quarter as the price of oil stabilized, but falling prices for raw industrials pushed the materials sector lower.

Bottom line: U.S. political developments and subsequent growth expectations dominated market sentiment last quarter. As a result, investors dialed back rate cut expectations and bond yields moved higher. In equity markets, the potential for an era of higher-for-longer rates prompted a resumption of investors crowding into growth stocks. Going forward, we remain cautious of elevated valuations and continue to prioritize diversified sources of returns with a long-term outlook. Nonetheless, despite rich valuations, our base case remains that investors’ enthusiasm for equities will persist in the near-term and stocks should continue to outperform bonds.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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