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Market Comments - October 2024
Key Takeaways for Q3· Central banks eased monetary policy by reducing their target interest rates.
· Bond markets performed very well during the quarter as interest rates fell.
· Risk markets experienced some volatility, but stock markets had robust returns.
· Canadian stocks outperformed U.S. stocks in Q3, while the sources of returns in the U.S. market were more balanced and diversified than in the first half of the year.
Views From the Frontline
Bond Markets: During the third quarter, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. moved significantly lower as markets anticipated that the Bank of Canada would continue – and the Federal Reserve would start – cutting rates. Additionally, the expectation became that the central banks would end up lowering rates more aggressively than previously assumed. That’s because inflation data has softened sufficiently to give the central banks the scope to ease policy, and other economic data, especially from the labour market, indicated the need for them to ease policy in order to prevent economic activity from cooling too much. For instance, in Canada, inflation slowed to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, while the labour market showed warning signs with the unemployment rate rising to 6.6%. The Bank of Canada cut its target interest rate by 0.25% at each of its July and September meetings. Governor Macklem indicated that if growth does not materialize as expected, “it could be appropriate to move faster on interest rates”. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve kicked off its easing cycle by cutting its target rate by 0.50% in September. The growing signs of a cooling labour market amidst slowing inflation motivated the larger-than-typical move. That said, consumer spending in the U.S. continued to be strong, and GDP is still tracking a healthy growth rate.
While interest rates fell, bonds returns were also boosted by solid behaviour of corporate bonds. Credit spreads (i.e. the risk premium for corporate bonds versus government bonds) continued to grind lower over the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels that are largely consistent with the tight post-pandemic levels experienced in 2021. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to be very robust, with $29B (billion) in new issuance during the quarter, resulting in an impressive $119B issued year-to-date, a new record. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.
Stock Markets: In the U.S., we continue to caution against heavily concentrated sources of market returns and emphasize a diversified portfolio. Last quarter, diversification proved essential as a multitude of factors heightened market volatility. These factors – which included the unwind of the yen carry trade, investor reactions to mixed mega-cap earnings, and concerns of a slowing labour market – drove investors away from mega-cap technology names and into defensive areas of the market. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates by 0.5%, sources of investment returns continued to broaden as investors rotated into economically-sensitive baskets. Underpinned by decelerating inflation and easing monetary policy, we believe the rotation away from the mega-cap tech names is likely to persist and we continue to emphasize portfolio diversification. In Canada, high-quality, high-yielding businesses – composed of the financial sector and non-financial dividend payers – outperformed over the quarter as investors rewarded companies that demonstrated a strong ability to sustain dividends, as well as greater efficiency generating profits. While we continue to favour these businesses, we have taken profit on our financial sector dividend exposure after a sharp reversion in the premium between value creation and current yield. In addition, Chinese officials introduced a wave of stimulus to revitalize growth, bringing life back to the metals and luxury goods sectors. Accordingly, Canadian and European equities have benefitted recently.
Market Update
Rates & Credit: In Q3, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. decreased significantly, with front-end interest rates declining faster than long-end interest rates amid cooling inflation and a weakening labour market. As a result, the FTSE Canada Universe Index posted a positive return of 4.7%. Coincidentally, Canadian corporate bonds and government bonds each also generated returns of 4.7%, totally in-line with the Universe index. On the other hand, despite short-term interest rates falling much more than long-term interest rates, the higher price sensitivity of long-dated bonds had them outperform shorter-dated bonds, with the Long-Term bond index up 5.8% while the Short-Term bond index gained 3.4%. Similarly, within corporate bonds, industries that have longer-dated debt (e.g. energy and infrastructure) outperformed those that tend to have shorter-dated debt (e.g. real estate and financials).
Equity Overview: Underpinned by decelerating inflation data and easing monetary policy – including the outsize 50-basis cut from the Federal Reserve – prospects for an economic soft landing increased over the quarter. That favourable outlook spurred global equity markets to all-time highs, with previously lagging areas of the market narrowing the performance gap compared to the U.S. mega-cap technology names that had led returns in the first half of the year. Canadian equities outperformed their U.S. counterpart last quarter, rising 10.5% as strength in the banking and materials sectors pushed the index higher. Major developed markets from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) were more subdued, gaining 0.9% (in local currency terms) last quarter. That said, grand expectations for further interest rate cuts in the U.S. pushed the greenback to its lowest level in over a year, boosting EAFE returns to over 7% in U.S. dollar terms. Within the U.S., sources of market returns broadened as well, with investors rotating out of concentrated AI companies and into more economically sensitive businesses.
U.S. Fundamentals: Outside of the Magnificent 7, investors are interpreting downside earnings surprises as a normalization of financial performance rather than a deterioration. For example, McDonald’s share price rallied over 17% into quarter-end following its earnings release despite announcing declining sales and contracting earnings per share. Within the AI-ecosystem, investors are beginning to look for opportunities beyond chip manufacturers, such as nuclear energy providers. At an index level, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000 index, excluding the Mag-7, posted a median earnings growth of nearly 9% year-over-year, expanding from the ~6% witnessed in Q2. Furthermore, the number of companies from this group reporting positive earnings growth grew to approximately 67%, up from 60% in the prior quarter. In our view, the ongoing broadening of earnings strength outside of the Mag-7 can provide tailwinds to current market rotations into previously left-behind companies. Within the mega-cap tech space, investors have become more discriminant than in prior quarters, rewarding businesses with greater success monetizing their AI-investments. This trend was evident through the divergence of returns from IBM and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) following their quarterly earnings.
U.S. Quant Factors: Decelerating U.S. inflation data prompted a rotation out of highly concentrated areas of the market (growth) and into more economically-sensitive companies (value). Then, concerns of a slowing U.S. labour market and the unwind of the yen carry trade increased market volatility, leading investors to shelter their positions by reallocating to low volatility. As the quarter progressed, expectations of easing monetary policy and stabilizing employment data helped calm return to the market and the rotation from mega-cap tech sector resumed, albeit at a lesser pace. Notably, this “catch-up” trade also benefitted dividend-paying companies, particularly those with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, as investors favoured those more mature operations.
Canadian Fundamentals: Investors returned to the Canadian market after Canadian companies showed signs of recovery last quarter with earnings expanding by more than expected. With inflation showing clearer signs of deceleration and the outlook regarding the path of monetary policy increasingly implying lower interest rates going forward, investors are allocating toward high-quality, dividend-paying companies. From a sector level, surging gold prices provided a tailwind for Canadian miners, helping the materials sector outperform over the quarter. More recently, the materials sector has benefitted from elevated base metal prices following the arrival of Chinese stimulus. In contrast, oil prices declined over 16% last quarter as fears of an oversupplied market swelled following speculation that OPEC+ would look to dial back production cuts. As a result, investors looked past lingering geopolitical risks and the energy sector underperformed.
Canadian Quant Factors: Amid an improving Canadian macroeconomic backdrop and clearer outlook on the trajectory of monetary policy, dividend-yielding businesses became sought after. More specifically, investors continued to emphasize dividend sustainability last quarter, rewarding dividend-paying businesses that demonstrated strong financial performance and the ability to support future payouts. For example, the major Canadian banks sharply outperformed in Q3 after reporting earnings growth that mostly exceeded expectations. In essence, investors have become more constructive on this high-yielding group as their ability to create value relative to financing costs improves.
Downloadable Copy
ADVISOR USE ONLYMark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public Portfolio ManagementIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public Portfolio ManagementJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Portfolio ManagementJin Li
Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA
Senior Analyst, Equity
Andrew Vermeer
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
Francie Chen
Analyst, Rates
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - July 2021
In this issue:
- Fabien Jeudy takes over as President and CEO*
- Reminder: Equitable Life’s Guide to Accessing Virtual Healthcare*
- Mental health resources for plan members*
- Recall of Philips CPAP machines*
Fabien Jeudy takes over as President and CEO*
In March, we announced that Fabien Jeudy was appointed as Equitable Life’s next President and CEO. Jeudy officially took over on July 5th, succeeding Ronald Beettam, who is retiring after 16 years with the company.
Jeudy is a collaborative leader with more than 30 years of experience in the insurance industry, leading actuarial, finance, risk management, distribution, marketing teams and operational teams in the Life & Health Insurance, Wealth Management and Group Benefits markets in Canada, the US, and Asia.
Reminder: Equitable Life’s Guide to Accessing Virtual Healthcare*
The demand for virtual healthcare services has increased as the pandemic is driving more people to access their health care providers from home.
Thankfully, many virtual healthcare services are available for free to Canadians with provincial health care coverage. We have created a Guide to Accessing Virtual Healthcare for plan members to easily access a variety of virtual healthcare services. Our guide includes information and links to both free and paid virtual medical care options, including video appointments, health advice over the phone, emergency dental services, and more.
You can find the guide on our website. It’s also available on our plan member website at EquitableHealth.ca.Mental health resources for plan members*
Many Canadians have been experiencing increased levels of stress, anxiety, and depression since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Through our partnership with Homewood Health®, all of our clients and their plan members have access to a number of health and wellness resources designed to provide guidance and support.
Homewood’s Online Cognitive Behavioural Therapy tool, i-Volve, can help plan members identify, challenge and overcome anxious thoughts, behaviours and emotions. Learn more about Online CBT or access i-Volve at Homeweb.ca/Equitable.
As well, Homewood has a number of resources available to help support plan members dealing with increased anxiety during these uncertain times:- Quelling COVID-19 Anxiety
- Managing stress and anxiety
- How to speak to children
- How to stay productive and motivated when working from home
- The COVID-19 Pandemic: Managing the Impact
- Support for First Responders, Front Line Workers and Public Facing Employees
- Financial tips for your financial health
- Increases in Domestic Violence
- Those with family members in long-term care facilities
- COVID-19: Employee Fatigue, Isolation and Loneliness
Recall of Philips CPAP machines*
Last month, electronics company, Philips, issued a recall with Health Canada of some of its Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP), BiLevel Positive Airway Pressure (BiLevel PAP) devices and Mechanical Ventilators. The recall was issued due to a foam abatement within the machines that can become loose and cause potential health risks.
To qualify for repair or replacement of these devices, users must register their machine on the Philips website.
CPAP, BiLevel PAP devices and Mechanical Ventilators are eligible for coverage under an HCSA and under some Extended Health Care plans. Plan administrators may want to inform plan members of this recall if the devices are eligible for coverage under their plan.
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This year’s RSP contribution deadline is March 1, 2022
Does your client want to contribute or open a new policy this Retirement Savings Plan (RSP) season? Whether using paper or our recent EZtransact online platform, here are some important things to remember.
Issuing New Policy with EZcomplete®
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All online applications must be digitally signed and submitted and have a date stamp no later than March 1, 2022.
Issuing New Policy using Paper Application-
For contributions to qualify for the first 60 days, all paperwork must be completed and signed by March 1, 2022. Equitable Life must receive all paperwork by March 7, 2022.
Deposits to Existing Policy
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Advisors can setup a one-time or recurring deposit or edit an existing pre-authorized debit already in place using EZtransact. Online deposits must be made and have a date stamp by March 1, 2022, to qualify for a 2021 tax receipt. New to EZtransact? Try our EZtransact Practice Site to see how EZ it is to use.
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Clients can make online deposits to Equitable Life® through their financial institution’s online banking service. Online deposits must be made and have a date stamp by March 1, 2022, to qualify for a 2021 tax receipt.
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Clients can also make a new deposit to an existing policy by cheque. The cheque must be dated and signed by March 1, 2022. Equitable Life must receive the cheque no later than March 7, 2022.
If online banking is being used to fund the policy – either topping up an existing policy or opening a new policy – the online banking transaction must be completed by March 1, 2022, to receive a 2021 tax receipt.
Do not miss your opportunity to have your contributions count for 2021!
Please note that cheques and other paperwork cannot be backdated. They must be completed and signed by March 1, 2022, to qualify for a 2021 tax receipt.
® denotes a trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
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- About
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Joe Galbraith recognized as Wealth Professional Magazine 2025 5-Star Wholesaler of the Year
Joe Galbraith, Director, Investment Sales at Equitable®, has been named one of Wealth Professional Magazine’s 2025 5-Star wholesalers. This award highlights his significant contributions to the financial services industry. The 50 individuals, chosen from a large pool of nominees, represent some of the best in the wholesaling business.
Encouraged by his wife to pursue his passion for helping people, Joe transitioned into financial services, spending 12 years as an advisor. He began his current role as Director, Investment Sales with Equitable six years ago. Known for his empathetic service mindset, Joe is deeply committed to understanding and addressing the unique needs of everyone he works with. His collaborative approach and knack for problem-solving make him a valued team member.
Joe's recognition as one of Wealth Professional's top 50 wholesalers underscores his commitment to clients and the industry. In response to this recognition, Joe expressed he is “humbled that advisors value our relationship enough to take the time to nominate me for this recognition. Their support and belief in me mean a great deal, and I’m grateful for the trust and collaboration we share.”
Join us in congratulating Joe on this achievement!
Date posted: May 1, 2025
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Tax impacts of the Canadian Dental Care Plan for your clients
Tax impacts of the Canadian Dental Care Plan for your clients*
Earlier this year, the government shared its progress on the Canadian Dental Care Plan (CDCP).
The CDCP will be available to Canadians with an annual family income of less than $90,000 who do not have dental benefits. Co-pays will be waived for eligible Canadians with a family income of less than $70,000.
Canadians who have access to private dental coverage are not eligible for the CDCP. This means that your clients must now report on T4s/T4As if dental coverage** was available on December 31 of the reporting tax year for:- Employees,
- Employees’ spouses and/or dependents,
- Former employees, and
- Spouses of deceased employees.
This new tax reporting requirement is mandatory starting with the 2023 tax year. Employee tax slips will include new boxes for employers to complete:- Box 45 (T4): Employer Offered Dental Benefits. This new box will be mandatory.
- Box 015 (T4A): Payer Offered Dental Benefits. This new box will be mandatory if plan sponsors report in Box 016, Pension or Superannuation. The box will otherwise be optional.
- Code 1: The plan member has no access to dental care insurance or coverage of dental services of any kind.
- Code 2: Only the plan member has access to any dental care insurance, or coverage of dental services of any kind.
- Code 3: The plan member, their spouse and their dependents have access to any dental care insurance, or coverage of dental services of any kind.
- Code 4: Only the plan member and their spouse have access to any dental care insurance, or coverage of dental services of any kind.
- Code 5: Only the plan member and their dependents have access to any dental care insurance, or coverage of dental services of any kind.
Reports for dependents
We have a report available for plan members who have enrolled their dependents in benefits coverage. Your clients can contact their local service team representative to receive a copy of the report. We are working to make it available on our Advisor and PA websites.
Questions
For guidance on your tax slips and reporting obligations, please encourage your clients to contact their accountant, payroll provider or tax advisor.
Supporting plan members affected by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict*
Traumatic events continue to unfold in the Middle East. Enduring ongoing news of conflict and suffering could challenge many Canadians. During this difficult time, Equitable encourages affected clients and plan members to access the mental health support they need.
Large-scale traumatic news events can cause people to experience intense reactions. This puts a lot of strain on their mental health. Having coping mechanisms to deal with the current crisis can be a huge help. Any Equitable Life plan member who needs mental health support can visit Homeweb.ca/equitable to access online resources or contact Homewood at 1.888.707.2115.
Support available to all Equitable plan members
Support available to plan members with the Homewood Health EFAP
For your clients that have purchased Homewood Health’s Employee and Family Assistance Program (EFAP), remind them that their plan members also have access to confidential counselling services. The EFAP provides plan members with 24/7 access to confidential counselling through a national network of mental health professionals. Whether it’s face-to-face, by phone, email, chat or video, plan members and their dependent family members will receive appropriate, timely support for the issue they’re dealing with.
Questions?
If you need more information, contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex account executive.
*Indicates content that will be shared with your clients. -
EZcomplete now displays Critical Illness insurance premiums
We have exciting news about EquiLiving® Critical Illness EZcomplete® applications. Effective April 22, 2023, EZcomplete will calculate and display critical illness insurance premiums automatically! This will save you time during the application process.
EZcomplete will calculate and show both the yearly and monthly premium amounts as you complete the application – this is similar to other Equitable Life insurance products. This means you do not need to run a separate illustration to determine and input the premium amount into EZcomplete anymore.
To learn more about Critical Illness, the Equitable way, visit our Critical Illness page on EquiNet or contact your local wholesaler.
® and TM denote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
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New illustration software now available!
We have updated our illustration software. Please be sure to download the latest version:
2023-3 (August 2023).
- Web-based illustration software on secure EquiNet® (log in required)
- Desktop illustration software
We have new rates for our Equimax® Wealth Accumulator and Estate Builder plans. Please refer to our Transition Rules for all the details on processing your applications.
Need more information?
For information on these changes, please contact your Equitable Life wholesaler.
® denotes a trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada. - [pdf] Limited Trading Authorization
- [pdf] GIA versus GIC