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EAMG Market Commentary July 2023
Posted July 27, 2023
July 17, 2023
Rates & Credit - The rates market was volatile in Q2 as investors focused on inflation, central bank interest rate decisions, and recession probabilities. Persistent strength in U.S. consumer spending and labour markets have surprised investors and prompted further interest rate tightening from central banks. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index during the quarter, with a total return of 0.2%, versus a loss of 1.0% for government bonds and 0.7% for the overall Index. The corporate bond outperformance was driven by a broad risk-on tone to the market, most notably in April as the market recovered from the banking sector liquidity crisis that developed during March. That said, the market tone remained cautious, with the improved risk premium on corporate bonds tempered by lingering concerns around sticky inflation, high interest rates, and the potential for slower economic growth into the latter half of the year.
Dominance of U.S. Equities – U.S. equity markets posted another strong quarter with the S&P 500 returning 8.7%, outperforming Canada and other major international equity markets. The S&P/TSX Composite, returned 1.2% in CAD. Major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) returned 3.2% in local currency terms. The highly anticipated re-opening of the Chinese economy has failed to materialize with economic data indicating less strength than previously forecasted. Amid sluggish Chinese growth, closely interconnected economic partners such as the European Union, as well as commodity-driven markets like Canada, have all underperformed the U.S. on a relative basis.
U.S. Fundamentals – Earnings continued to contract versus prior year, albeit at a slower pace than forecasted. Forward earnings guidance improved quarter-over-quarter with corporate sentiment returning to neutral levels. Based on our analysis, we observed that 31% of major companies expect deteriorating financial performance, while 33% expect improved performance, with the remaining expecting no material change. Overall, major U.S. companies remain well capitalized with strong operating margins. However, company guidance indicates a prioritization of cost controls amid increased consumer indebtedness and concerns about the health of the consumer.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) Mania – Despite concerns that the U.S. economy is at a late stage in its economic cycle, that monetary tightening by central banks could go too far, and the fact that earnings contracted on a year-over-year basis, equity markets became more expensive during the quarter with price-to-earnings multiples expanding. This expansion was driven by investors crowding into AI focused technology companies, with the seven largest AI/technology themed companies averaging a 26% return while the other 493 members gained only 3%. Investors rewarded businesses with contributions to AI development (hardware and software components), as well as those with the ability to implement synergies from leveraging the technology. A crowded market surge is not uncommon at this point in the economic cycle, where positive economic surprises, in this instance, strong employment and consumer spending can lead to an upswelling in investor confidence.
U.S. Quant Factors – Using our investment framework, we currently favour exposures to large cash-rich companies with innovative product offerings, which we believe offer the strongest risk-adjusted returns in the current market environment. While the valuation of AI companies seems to defy traditional rationales, the momentum has continued to push the group higher. Consequently, the Quality factor (companies with higher return-on-equity, strong operating performance, and healthy leverage levels) participated in the AI trend and consistently outperformed throughout the quarter. The Low Volatility factor (stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement, and lower price volatility) underperformed through the quarter. While the Low Volatility factor typically performs well at this stage of the economic cycle, the fact that a small number of stocks were responsible for much of the market’s return hurt this factor. Lastly, the Momentum factor (stocks with a recent history of price appreciation) initially underperformed during the quarter before rebounding in June. This factor’s recent outperformance suggests that the market is becoming complacent and possibly signals that rotations within the market are slowing as current trends remain in favour.
Canadian Fundamentals – Top line revenue missed forecasts while bottom line earnings were consistent with expectations. Softer-than-expected results out of Canadian financials, as well as underwhelming results from the materials sector, dragged on the aggregate index performance. Earnings forecasts for the rest of the year have been revised downward with analyst expecting index aggregate earnings to detract 2% to 3%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.75% on the backdrop of robust economic data releases including Q1 GDP and April CPI.
Canadian Quant Factors – The most notable dislocation in Canada was the convergence of the dividend yield of High-Dividend ETFs and Equal-Weight Bank ETFs. We believe that the drag from Canadian banks following the U.S. regional banking concerns in March resulted in a discount of the Quality factor as the performance of the group is sensitive to the movements of banks. While banks did recover around 35% of their SVB-induced underperformance, the nature of banking has attracted investor scrutiny given the view that we are in the late-stage of the economic cycle. That said, this environment is an attractive environment to add variants of the Quality factor, which would gain exposure to a rebounding industry that offers a similar dividend yield to the high dividend stocks.
Views From the Frontline
Rates – On an outright basis, bond yields across the curve continue to look attractive. Economic data remains strong however we are beginning to see the first signs of weakness in spending, jobs and inflation. Slower growth, a more balanced labour market, declining inflation, and tighter credit conditions will likely drive interest rates lower throughout 2023. Market participants remain focused on the extent of interest rate hikes and the duration of a pause required to bring inflation back to the 2% target. With inflation remaining more persistent than previously expected forecasts around the timing, pace and extent of the removal of monetary policy have been pushed into 2024.
Credit – The uncertain economic outlook and risks around slower economic growth later this year merit caution about corporate bonds and a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we think the risk / reward dynamic are more favourable. That said, the “soft-landing” narrative, now more pervasive in the market, could continue to provide support to risk assets, which we view as an opportunity to further pare down higher beta exposure.
Equities – Given the direction of the current economic and company fundamental data, we continue to favour high quality growth segments of the market with strong operating margins. As such, the late cycle conditions in the market reinforce our preference for large cap stocks over smaller, more U.S. domestically focused businesses. The U.S. Low Volatility factor’s underperformance is unlikely to reverse in the short term given the resilience of the U.S. economy. Furthermore, after a steep decline last quarter, we expect that cyclical value will find support in the near term, echoing the increased chance of slowing inflation without stalling economic growth. In Canada, equities are typically more cyclical in nature, which coupled with the potential for an earnings contraction, makes us view the Low Volatility factor as more likely to outperform. Like the U.S., we prefer Canadian high-quality companies to navigate through the late cycle environment. On the heels of poor Chinese economic data and underwhelming stimulus, we are maintaining our overweight to the U.S. relative to Canada and EAFE.
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Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. - [pdf] DSC/Transfer Fee Recovery Program – FAQ
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - October 2022
Introducing new Gender Affirmation Coverage for group benefits plans
Providing an inclusive benefits plan can play a critical role in fostering a workplace culture that welcomes diversity and helps employees thrive. While most provinces cover the cost of gender-affirming surgery, each person has unique needs. Some may require procedures that are not publicly covered.
That’s why we’re pleased to introduce a new coverage option for gender affirmation surgical procedures that are not covered by provincial health plans. Gender Affirmation Coverage helps plan sponsors to close the gap where provincial health coverage ends.Coverage details and eligibility
Gender Affirmation Coverage can be added to any Equitable Life plan with an in-force Extended Health Care plan. It provides coverage for gender-affirming procedures that are not covered by provincial health plans. This might include tracheal (Adam’s apple) shaving and voice surgery. It will also cover some additional procedures to further align the plan member’s features to the transitioned gender, such as facial bone reduction and cheek augmentation. This makes a wider variety of gender-affirming surgeries accessible to plan members and helps minimize their out-of-pocket costs.
Plan members are eligible for coverage with a diagnosis of gender dysphoria from a qualified health care professional.Offering a more inclusive benefits plan
The coverage provides one more way for your clients to offer more inclusive coverage and to offer holistic support to their plan members undergoing a gender transition. We have developed this coverage as a complement to our existing coverage options, including Health Care Spending Accounts (HCSAs), Taxable Spending Accounts (TSAs), Extended Health Care and drug coverage, and Employee and Family Assistance Programs, all of which can provide support to plan members undergoing gender affirmation.
We regularly review our products to ensure that they’re meeting your clients’ needs, and we’re committed to offering products that support diversity, equity and inclusion.
We also continue to review our forms, documents and processes to make them more inclusive. This includes reviewing our online plan member enrolment (OPME) tool to allow for more flexibility with the way plan members identify their gender.Gender affirmation and mental well-being
Gender affirmation procedures can lead to improved mental health outcomes for those with gender dysphoria, as most report an improvement in their quality of life following the procedures. Gender dysphoria may occur when a person’s assigned sex at birth does not match their identity, and people experiencing gender dysphoria typically report psychological and emotional distress, including symptoms of depression or anxiety. By offering coverage where provincial health coverage ends, your clients can support plan members as they seek procedures that align their body presentation with their self-identified gender.
Advantages at a glance
Advantages for plan members include:- Reimbursement for some procedures and expenses, leading to fewer out-of-pocket costs
- May experience improved mental health outcomes after surgery
- A benefits plan that promotes a culture of diversity, equity and inclusion, which may build employee loyalty
- Support for plan member mental health to help those with gender dysphoria thrive
The Benefits Canada 2022 Health Care Survey results are in!
Equitable Life is proud to be a Platinum sponsor for The Benefits Canada 2022 Health Care Survey, Canada’s leading survey on workplace benefits plans. This year’s survey report highlights many fascinating insights across a wide variety of benefits topics, including:- A focus on mental health for both plan sponsors and plan members
- The repercussions of the "shadow" pandemic due to health care delays
- Trends in plan members' overall perceptions of their health benefits plans
- The types of benefits getting more attention from plan members
- The role of remote work in plan member satisfaction
We’re committed to helping you and your clients navigate the evolving landscape of employee benefits in Canada by contributing to this vibrant industry community. To read the full report, visit Benefits Canada.
HCSA and TSA manual allocation reminder
If your clients’ Health Care Spending Account (HCSA) and/or Taxable Spending Account (TSA) have manual allocations, they need to allocate these amounts to plan members each year. Clients should review their plan members’ profiles on EquitableHealth.ca to ensure they have received their allocation(s) for the current benefit year. Your clients may also order HCSA and TSA forfeiture reports on EquitableHealth.ca.
If your clients have Plan Administrator update access on EquitableHealth.ca, they can update these amounts online by doing the following:- Select View certificate
- Select Health Care Spending Account or Taxable Spending Account
- Select Update Allocation in Task Center
- Enter amount in Revised Allocation Amount
- Override Reason – Plan Administrator Request
- Select Save
- Select Reports
- Select New
- Select Next
- Select HCSA or TSA Totals by Plan Member
- Select Next
- Enter end date of 12/31/2022
- Select Next
- Select Finish
- View Report
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February 2023 eNews
Responding to Nova Scotia’s biosimilar switch initiative
We are changing coverage for some biologic drugs in Nova Scotia in response to the province’s biosimilar initiative. These changes will help protect your clients’ plans from additional drug costs that may result from this new government policy while providing access to equally safe and effective lower-cost biosimilars.Nova Scotia’s provincial biosimilar initiative
Announced in February 2022, the Nova Scotia Biosimilar Initiative ends coverage of seven biologic drugs for residents enrolled in Pharmacare programs.
Pharmacare patients in the province using these drugs will be required to switch to biosimilar versions of these drugs by February 3, 2023, in order to maintain their Nova Scotia Pharmacare coverage.Equitable Life’s response
To ensure this provincial change doesn’t result in your clients’ plans paying additional and avoidable drug costs, we are changing coverage in Nova Scotia for most biologic drugs included in the provincial initiative.
Beginning June 1, 2023, plan members in the province will no longer be eligible for most originator biologic drugs if they have a condition for which Health Canada has approved a lower cost biosimilar version of the drug.** These plan members will be required to switch to a biosimilar version of the drug to maintain coverage under their Equitable Life plan.Can my client maintain coverage of these biologic drugs?
Traditional groups who wish to opt out of this change and maintain coverage of these originator biologics for Nova Scotia plan members can submit a policy amendment. Amendments must be submitted no later than April 1, 2023. Advisors with myFlex Benefits clients who wish to maintain coverage of these originator biologics for Nova Scotia plan members should speak to their myFlex Sales Manager to confirm their eligibility to opt out of this change.
Groups that choose to maintain coverage of these originator biologics for existing claimants will also maintain coverage for any originator biologics that we subsequently add to our Nova Scotia biosimilar initiative.Will this change impact my clients’ rates?
The rate impact of this change in coverage will be relatively insignificant. Any cost savings associated with the change will be factored in at renewal.
If plan sponsors opt out of these changes and maintain coverage for the originator biologics, it may result in a rate increase. Any rate adjustment will be applied at renewal.Communicating this change to plan members
We will inform any affected plan members in April of the need to switch their medications so that they have ample time to change their prescriptions and avoid any interruptions in treatment or coverage.What is the difference between biologics and biosimilars?
Biologics are drugs that are engineered using living organisms like yeast and bacteria. The first version of a biologic developed is known as the “originator” biologic. Biosimilars are highly similar to the drugs they are based on and Health Canada considers them to be equally safe and effective for approved conditions.Questions?
If you have any questions about this change, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
**The list of affected drugs is dynamic and will change as Nova Scotia includes more biologic drugs in its biosimilar initiative, as new biosimilars come onto the market, and as we make changes in drug eligibility.
Changes to New Brunswick drug interchangeability rules
We are introducing changes to help ensure that your clients with voluntary or mandatory generic pricing for their drug plans will benefit more from the cost savings of these two features, regardless of the province where the drugs are dispensed.
Currently, when determining whether a lower-cost alternative is available for a brand-name drug, most insurers only consider drugs that the provincial drug plan identifies as interchangeable.
However, the public drug plan in New Brunswick does not identify a drug as interchangeable if the drug is not listed on its formulary – even if Health Canada has deemed the drug interchangeable.
As a result, plans with mandatory or voluntary generic pricing have continued to reimburse some drugs in New Brunswick based on the cost of the brand-name drug, even if a lower-cost generic alternative is available.
Effective March 20, 2023, if your clients have drug plans with mandatory or voluntary generic pricing, we will adjudicate any drug claims in New Brunswick using the lowest cost alternative that Health Canada approves as bioequivalent. This will occur even if the public drug plan has not identified the drug as interchangeable.
To benefit from this more robust drug plan control, plan sponsors must have mandatory or voluntary generic pricing in place.
For more information about this change or about implementing mandatory or voluntary generic pricing for your clients, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
New template: plan members eligible for additional coverage
Often, based on salary, some plan members may become eligible to apply for extra Life, Accidental Death & Dismemberment (AD&D), Short Term Disability or Long Term Disability coverage. If this occurs, your clients receive a notification from Group Benefits Administration. We have now developed a template that your clients can provide to applicable plan members if they become eligible for extra coverage. The template makes it simpler for your clients to pass on these details to their plan members efficiently.
The new template is available for download under the Quick Links section of EquitableHealth.ca. It is a fillable PDF form that your clients can complete and provide to their plan members when necessary. The document is called Over the Non-Evidence Limit for Plan Members Notification.
If you have any questions about the template, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager. - [pdf] Payout Annuity Interest Rate Guarantees (Advisor)