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  1. Market Commentary July 2025 Key Takeaways

    • Markets were very volatile in April to start Q2 but calmed as the quarter progressed. Volatility was driven mostly by headlines about tariffs, but other fiscal policy developments also had an impact.
    • Equity markets sold off sharply at the start of the quarter, continuing Q1’s weakness. Markets rebounded sharply once worst-case fears over tariffs eased. The markets continued to rally through the quarter as trade negotiations progressed. Stronger-thanexpected corporate earnings also boosted markets. Despite the shaky start to the quarter, most global equity markets set new all-time highs in Q2.
    • Canadian bond markets delivered slightly negative returns in Q2. Weak performance was driven by rising interest rates, which outweighed the impact of tighter credit spreads. Higher interest rates hurt the performance of longer-term bonds most. 
    • Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted a wait-and-see approach. They each held rates steady during Q2, awaiting greater clarity on the impacts of tariffs on both growth and inflation before considering further cuts.


    Economic and Market Update

    Economic Summary: Most indicators of economic activity in the U.S. continued to expand at a decent pace. However, GDP data for the first quarter came in weaker than expected, as higher imports ahead of anticipated tariffs and weaker spending by consumers weighed on Q1 GDP. That said, GDP growth is expected to bounce back in Q2. Tariffs will likely continue to be an evolving story, with potential impacts on both economic growth and inflation. Those impacts will remain uncertain until trade agreements have been finalized.

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    In early April, President Trump announced larger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs, with the impact most notable on trade with China. However, progress followed with a 90-day pause in tariff implementation. The U.S. then reached trade agreements with the UK, China, and Vietnam. Negotiations with other major trade partners are ongoing. The conflict between Israel and Iran raised inflation concerns, due mostly to the possibility of higher oil prices. Those concerns eased following a ceasefire. Congress passed Trump’s tax cut and spending bill, raising concerns about its potential impact on the U.S. fiscal burden. Meanwhile, U.S. labour market conditions remain resilient, with the unemployment rate remaining low. Inflation has eased slightly but remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. Amid heightened uncertainty, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% at both of its meetings in Q2. Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

    In Canada, tariffs and trade-related uncertainty continue to weigh on the economy. A pullforward of exports and inventory accumulation ahead of tariffs helped keep first-quarter GDP firm, but growth is expected to slow in the second quarter. The labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors. Inflation remains within the Bank of Canada’s 1–3% preferred range. However, core CPI remains above the Bank’s preferred 2% target. Canada’s fiscal deficit is expected to widen as Prime Minister Mark Carney aims to fast-track infrastructure development and increase defense spending. Amid ongoing trade uncertainty, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75% during its April and June meetings. Governor Tiff Macklem signaled the Bank’s readiness to cut rates further if economic conditions deteriorate.

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    Bond Markets: During Q2, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned -0.6%. Yields for Canadian bonds rose across all maturities over the quarter. That reflected reduced expectations for rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and a higher risk premium on long-term debt. The impact of higher yields on government bonds was offset in part by tightening of credit spreads on provincial and corporate bonds. Overall corporate bonds saw a positive return for the quarter and outperformed government bonds, in part due to the strong recovery in credit spreads that started in late
    April. While corporate issuance slowed considerably in April due to increased trade policy uncertainty, issuance in the Canadian bond markets during May and June were robust. There were 83 deals during Q2 that combined to raise $37 billion for issuers. June 2025 was the 3rd busiest month for issuance on record. We continue to expect higher credit spreads as the U.S. tariffs impact global growth. 
    As such, we have maintained our conservative view with a bias towards shorter corporate bonds but remain ready to invest in longer corporate bonds as valuations become
    attractive.

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    Stock Markets – Overview:
    Having done a round-trip following April tariff announcements, technology, consumer discretionary and industrial companies propelled the U.S. equity market to another record high. The S&P 500 ended the quarter up about 11%, outperforming Canadian and international markets. Canadian equities gained 8.5% in Q2, buoyed by front-loaded demand that benefited the Materials sector, while Financials recovered from a poor Q1. Meanwhile, as risk sentiment stabilized following the 90-day tariff pause and U.S. equities regained momentum, the appeal of the “Sell America” trade diminished. As a result, Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) markets finished the quarter with a more modest gain of just over 5%, lagging the sharper
    recovery seen in North America.

    Fig-Four-(1).jpg


    U.S. Equities: The U.S. equity market staged a V-shaped recovery on strong company earnings data in the second quarter. A stable job market and muted inflation reinforced the view of a resilient U.S. economy. At a company level, we observed positive corporate earnings surprises, steady profit margins and better-than-expected forward earnings guidance. Together they underpinned the equity market’s sharp reversal to the upside. Market breadth also improved over the quarter, with strength extending beyond Technology to include Industrials and Financials. That signalled that the market rally was supported by investors’ confidence in the U.S. economy. Furthermore, structural investment trends in artificial intelligence (AI) continued to accelerate, highlighted by rising enterprise capex in data centres. Beyond AI, Circle, a blockchain-based platform that supports stablecoin issuance, tokenized assets, and digital payment infrastructure, conducted a successful IPO. Its share price jumped 485% from its listing price as of quarter-end. On June 17, the U.S. Senate passed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, a regulatory framework for use of tokenized assets. While investors wait for the House’s decision, equity price actions suggest that the policy environment is increasingly supportive of blockchain innovation and digital efficiency.

    Canadian Equities: Canadian equities posted solid gains in Q2, with Financials overtaking Materials to lead the market higher. Momentum from the Materials sector, which benefited from the pull-forward demand related to U.S. tariff uncertainty, faded toward quarter-end. Meanwhile, cooling inflation and muted domestic growth pushed investors towards highquality, high-dividend-paying companies. Notably, banks significantly outperformed the broader market, as investors favoured their stable corporate fundamentals. Energy surged briefly amid escalating geopolitical tensions, but those gains proved short-lived. In recap, investors in the Canadian market faced slowing resource demand and a stalling domestic economy, which fueled increased interest in high-quality, high-dividend-paying companies. That is a trend we expect to continue going forward.


    Bottom line:  Markets remain heavily influenced by sentiment, with U.S. policy developments and ongoing tariff negotiations continuing to cause periodic volatility. However, there is little
    evidence of deterioration in the hard data to date. As such, we continue to anchor our positioning on underlying data rather than market narratives. Looking ahead, the combination of a structurally higher-for-longer interest rate environment and increasingly pro-growth policy backdrop presents selective opportunities. In the U.S., this favours highquality growth stocks, particularly within Technology, where strong balance sheets and long-term thematic tailwinds remain intact. In Canada, Financials, especially the relatively inexpensive banks, present a more compelling opportunity as earlier tailwinds from pullforward demand are beginning to wane. While we remain constructive, we are mindful of elevated equity valuations and continue to closely monitor macro conditions and policy developments for signs of inflection.


    Downloadable Copy

     
    Mark Warywoda, CFA
    VP, Public Investments
    Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA
    AVP, Public Investments
    Johanna Shaw, CFA
    Director, Public Investments
    Jin Li
    Director, Equity Investments
     
     
    Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM
    Sr. Quantitative Analyst
     
    Andrew Vermeer, CFA
    Senior Analyst, Credit
     
    Elizabeth Ayodele 
    Analyst, Credit
     
    Edward Ng Cheng Hi

    Analyst, Credit

    Francie Chen
    Analyst, Rates

    ADVISOR USE ONLY
    Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
  2. [pdf] Take emotions out of investing
  3. Anti-money Laundering Legislation Requirements Summary
  4. About
  5. Supporting you and your group clients during the COVID-19 pandemic

    We know these are challenging times.

    As COVID-19 continues to spread, we want to reassure you that we remain ready and committed to support you, your group clients and their plan members.

    We have a robust and well-tested business continuity plan in place and have taken the necessary steps to maintain the high level of service you have come to expect from us. Our business is near 100% digital, so the vast majority of our employees are now working remotely from home and are fully functional. Our Customer Care Centre remains open to support plan members and can be reached at 1.800.265.4556. And our Client Relationship Specialists are available for Plan Administrator questions and support.

    As the situation continues to develop, we know you will have questions about what it means for your clients and their plan members. We have already issued announcements related to Travel Assist coverage for plan members who are outside of the country, and about short-term disability coverage for plan members who are in quarantine or self-isolation. We will continue to provide timely updates as developments unfold.

    All of us are facing an unprecedented number of urgent situations where there is no established protocol. Our commitment to you and your clients is to respond quickly, and to be flexible where we can, tailoring solutions to specific needs. The global situation is evolving rapidly; we ask for your patience as our solutions also evolve quickly and accordingly. Your Group Account Executive and myFlex Sales Manager are well equipped to navigate Equitable Life’s experts and to resolve difficulties.

    These are extraordinary times and history is in the making. Rest assured that Equitable Life is unwavering in our support, and we will be here to help you when it matters most.

  6. Mental health support for all plan members

    As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, many Canadians are dealing with increased stress and anxiety. Now, more than ever, plan members need easy to access resources to help them cope with these uncertain times.

    Through our partnership with Homewood Health®, the Canadian leader in mental health and addiction services, all of our clients and their plan members have access to tools designed to provide guidance and support, including i-Volve, Homewood’s Online Cognitive Behavioural Therapy tool.

    Proven therapy, at your own pace

    Included with Homewood Online resources in every Equitable Life® plan, i-Volve can help plan members identify, challenge and overcome anxious thoughts, behaviours and emotions. It encourages incremental changes in behaviour and is proven to be an effective therapeutic approach for dealing with mild to moderate anxiety or depression. Plan members work at their own pace through a series of web-based exercises, ultimately helping to change the ways in which they think, feel and react in various situations.

    Free for all Equitable Life plan members

    All Equitable Life clients and their plan members have access to i-Volve. It’s available 24 hours a day, seven days a week, wherever you choose to access it.

    Contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager to learn more about Homewood Health and i-Volve Online CBT.

     

  7. Make room for more EDO room

    Effective June 26, 2021, a term rider added to an Equimax Estate Builder® or Equimax Wealth Accumulator® policy may allow for an increase to the maximum Excelerator Deposit Option (EDO) payment limit.
     
    Highlights:

    ● This enhancement will apply to adult single life Equimax Estate Builder and Wealth Accumulator policies where the Owner Signature Date on the application for insurance is June 26, 2021 or after.
    ● For the term rider to increase the EDO payment limit, it must be issued at the same time as the Equimax coverage.
    ● Term rider EDO payment limit assumes the term rider is held at least 10 years.
    ● The illustration system and EZcomplete application will calculate the maximum EDO payment including any increase from a term rider.
    ● Policies already issued do not qualify.  

    Full details about the changes can be found in the transition rules.
     
    Who can benefit from this product enhancement?
    Your clients who have a temporary insurance need and add a term rider to their Equimax plan may be able to take advantage of the additional exempt room and higher EDO payment limits to build the policy values. Make Equimax® your first choice for your clients’ whole life insurance needs.
     
    New Illustration software is now available
    The updated illustration software will be available for download after 9 a.m. ET on Friday, June 25, 2021. 
     
    Want more information?

    ● Learn more about the changes and transition rules
    ● Contact your Regional Sales Manager for more information on these changes and other sales ideas  


    ® denotes a registered trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.

  8. Enhancements to ID Verification and Business Forms

    We have made enhancements to some of our forms and created an additional form to help make it easier for you to do business with Equitable Life®.
     
    The first enhancement is an update to the ID Verification section to allow for Third Party ID Verification when a client doesn’t want to provide ID documents to an Advisor. They are now given additional options to either use the Alternative Identification requirements, or consent to Equitable Life verifying their identity through a third party service provider. We’ve also clarified in the Advisor declaration that they can’t sign for their own policies as they aren’t able to validate their own ID.

    The above changes have been made to the following forms:

     
    The second enhancement is an update to Business forms. We’ve created a new form, 2004 Signing Authorities Certificate, to help Businesses provide the Signing Authority information needed more easily!  Forms 594 and 682ENT have been updated to point to the new Form 2004 and also have new “Ownership structure” requirements added in section 2.

    View the below forms for details on these changes:
    ® denotes a registered trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
     
  9. Equitable Life and Cloud DX

    We have partnered with Cloud DX to provide remote monitoring for all our EquiLiving® Critical Illness Insurance eligible claimants.*

     A Canadian first. Equitable Life’s Critical Illness eligible claimants, will now be supported beyond diagnosis and through treatment and recovery. Equitable Life is proud to announce that it has partnered with Canadian digital health innovator, Cloud DX, to provide a Virtual Monitoring Care service as part of its Critical Illness packages. We are pleased to offer this service on all new and existing EquiLiving coverages. 

    View our press release announcing Cloud DX and Equitable Life’s partnership, and watch our video featuring Donna Carbell, Senior Vice President, Individual Insurance.

    *Cloud DX is a non-contractual benefit and may be withdrawn or changed by Equitable Life® at any time. To be eligible for the Cloud DX offering, a claimant must be age 12 or older and have received payment on or after February 12, 2022 for a covered critical condition benefit under an individual critical illness insurance policy issued by Equitable Life. An early detection benefit payment does not qualify.   Equitable Life pays for 6 months of Cloud DX subscription fees.  If the claimant wishes to continue the Cloud DX service after 6 months, they will be responsible for the cost.
  10. The value of Equitable Life’s EZcomplete online application for Pivotal Select
    Necessity is the mother of invention. And COVID-19 has taken Equitable Life’s® EZcomplete® online application to the next level. Prior to the pandemic, EZcomplete was touted as being convenient and easy to use. Well, it is. But now…it is so much more.

    Whether secure in an office or safe at home, EZcomplete’s non face-to-face capabilities include an alternative to physical verification. EZcomplete simply requires verification of ID using a third-party service provider. The third-party service provider completes the verification behind the scenes using information that was already required to complete an application. By removing the physical ID requirements, the ID verification process has been automated and simplified.

    EZcomplete’s electronic signature functionality is also easy and secure. To enable a remote signature, your client just provides an e-mail address. Your client will receive a link and security code that you provide. The client enters the code, reviews the application and e-signs the documents.

    Step by step directions ensure you have the right details without any confusing or unnecessary questions. Highlighted fields alert you to any missing information, eliminating any extra work or effort. The immediate processing also helps make it an attractive resource.



    Whether selling segregated funds face to face or from the comfort of home, Equitable Life’s EZcomplete online application and Pivotal Select™ segregated fund line up provide the solution for even the most rattled and weary investor. Learn more, visit EquiNet or contact your Regional Investment Sales Manager.