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All about the changes to the capital gains inclusion rate Disclaimer: The following content is provided by and is the opinion of Invesco Canada Ltd. Equitable does not guarantee the adequacy, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of the information. Equitable shall not be liable for any errors or omissions in the information provided by Invesco.

What has changed?
One noteworthy measure to come from Budget 2024 is the proposed change to the capital gains inclusion rate, which was previously held steady at 50% since 2001.

For individuals, capital gains more than $250,000 annually will be subject to an increased 66.67% inclusion rate as of June 25, 2024, while the capital gains up to $250,000 will continue to be subject to the existing 50% inclusion rate. As a transitional measure for 2024, only the capital gains realized by individuals on or after the effective date of June 25 that are above the $250,000 threshold will be subject to the increased inclusion rate.

For trusts and corporations, the inclusion rate on all capital gains will increase from 50% to 66.67% starting on June 25, 2024.

Who is affected?

Impact to individuals
Budget 2024 proposed to add transitional rules which would specifically identify capital gains and losses realized before the effective date (Period 1) and those realized on or after the effective date (Period 2). The effective date is June 25, 2024. Capital gains realized on or after that date will have an inclusion rate of 50% on the amount up to $250,000, and an inclusion rate of 66.67% on the amount above $250,000. All capital gains realized prior to the effective date will have an inclusion rate of 50%.
Take Ontario as an example, the proposed higher inclusion rate on capital gains would effectively increase the average federal-provincial marginal tax rate for Ontario residents on capital gains above $250,000 at the top marginal tax rate from 26.76% to 35.69%. A more detailed analysis on the impact of these changes to an individual’s tax rate is discussed below.
For net capital gains realized in Period 2, the annual $250,000 threshold would be fully available in 2024 (i.e., it would not be prorated) and it would apply only in respect of net capital gains realized in Period 2.
The $250,000 threshold would effectively apply to capital gains realized by an individual, either directly or indirectly via a partnership or trust, net of any: current-year capital losses, capital losses of other years applied to reduce current-year capital gains, and capital gains in respect of which the Lifetime Capital Gains Exemption, the proposed employee Ownership Trust Exemption or the proposed Canadian Entrepreneurs’ Incentive claimed.
Two common scenarios of reaching the $250,000 capital gain threshold are the deemed disposition of capital property at death, and the emigration from Canada (i.e., becoming a non-resident for income tax purposes). We have provided additional details on these topics below.

Deemed disposition upon death
When an individual passes away, they are deemed to have sold their capital property (e.g., units or shares of mutual funds, shares of corporations, and real property) at its fair market value (FMV) immediately before their death. If a capital gain arises because of this deemed disposition, that capital gain is reportable on the deceased’s final (terminal) tax return and the taxes owing as a result, if any, would be payable by the estate of the deceased. However, there are provisions that allow taxes to be deferred when the property is transferred to a spouse. For example, if a capital property is transferred to a surviving spouse or common-law partner, subsection 70(6) of the Income Tax Act (Canada) automatically deems the deceased to have disposed of that property and the spouse or common-law partner immediately acquires the same property at the deceased transferor’s adjusted cost base (ACB). This is commonly referred to as the “spousal rollover”. Another potential strategy to manage potential large capital gains taxes at death is life insurance, since the death benefit is typically paid out tax-free.
Without careful planning, the estate value could be substantially reduced by the changes to the capital gains inclusion rate. Furthermore, it would be prudent to ensure there are liquid assets or cash available in the estate to cover the associated tax liabilities.

Non-resident of Canada – Departure tax
Residency in Canada for income tax purposes is a question of fact, which primarily depends on the individual’s residential and social ties in Canada. When an individual becomes a non-resident of Canada, they are deemed to have disposed of and immediately reacquired certain types of property at FMV. The tax incurred because of this deemed disposition and reacquisition is also known as the departure tax. Some examples of properties subject to departure tax include securities inside a non-registered investment portfolio, shares of Canadian private corporations, and real estate situated outside of Canada. Note that there are some properties that are exempted from the departure tax, including: pensions and similar rights (including registered retirement savings plans (RRSPs), registered retirement income funds (RRIFs), and tax-free savings accounts (TFSAs)) and Canadian real property.
The departure tax rules coupled with the increased capital gain inclusion rate above the $250,000 threshold may incur additional tax payable for emigrants. However, there is an option to defer the payment of departure tax on income associated with the deemed disposition upon emigration. By making an election, the individual would pay the tax later, without interest, when the property is disposed of. This election can be done by completing CRA Form T1244, “Election Under Subsection 220(4.5) of the Income Tax Act, to Defer the Payment of Tax on Income Relating to the Deemed Disposition of Property," on or before April 30 of the year following their departure from Canada.

Impact to Entities
Corporations and trusts will also be impacted by the increased inclusion rate as of June 25, 2024. Unlike individuals, corporations and trusts will not have access to the old inclusion rate on the first $250,000 of capital gains: they will be subject to the new 66.67% inclusion rate from the very first dollar.
With the above in mind, there will be options available to shelter corporate and trust capital gains from the new inclusion rate.

For corporations:
The lifetime capital gains exemption (LCGE) can be used to eliminate capital gains taxes on the sale of qualified small business corporation shares (generally, these are shares of a Canadian-controlled private corporation that carries on an active business). The LCGE is also available on the sale of qualified farm or fishing property. The current lifetime limit for the LCGE is $1,016,836. Budget 2024 proposed to increase that limit to $1,250,000 starting on June 25, 2024, so certain business owners will be able to reduce or eliminate their exposure to the new inclusion rate if they are able to make use of the increased LCGE limit.

For trusts:
Budget 2024 suggests that capital gains allocated by a trust to its beneficiaries on or after June 25, 2024, will be included in the beneficiaries’ income at the old 50% rate up to the beneficiaries’ first $250,000 of capital gains for the year. While the specifics are not yet available, this opportunity will likely create further planning considerations surrounding the allocation of capital gains from a trust to its beneficiaries to reduce taxes. Capital gains can generally be allocated to a beneficiary for tax purposes when they are actually paid to the beneficiary, or when they are payable to a beneficiary (i.e., the beneficiary hasn’t received it, but has a right to demand payment of the capital gain). The option of making income paid (or payable) to its beneficiaries and allocating such income to be taxed in their hands will largely depend on the trust terms.

Historical reference: capital gains inclusion rate
Those of us around long enough, understand that this recent change was not the only time the capital gains inclusion rate has deviated from the 50% inclusion rate. Over the years, capital gains tax rate has ranged from nil to as high as 75% as indicated in the table below. In fact, the first instance of capital gain tax was introduced in 1972!

Excluding the 2024 tax year, we have given a rough estimate on the percentage of time spent at each of the various capital gains inclusion rates over the last 42 years. As we can see, for most of the time, the capital gains inclusion rate has remained at the 50 % inclusion rate. In fact, for the last 23 consecutive years, the inclusion rate has remained untouched with the last change being back in tax year 2000 with various changes introduced that year.

Tax impact by province/jurisdiction
With the increase in the capital gains inclusion rate, we want to demonstrate the potential tax impact of those changes across jurisdictions in Canada. The table below shows the 2024 marginal tax rate for the highest individual income earners in each jurisdiction at both the 50% and 66.67% capital gains inclusion rate, respectively. The average difference is an increase in taxes payable by 8.45%.

Next, we look at the additional taxes payable because of the inclusion increase, assuming varying capital gains income levels. Of course, this assumes that the capital gains do not otherwise benefit from a reduced inclusion rate or an outright exemption such as eligible in-kind donations of securities to registered charities, or shares that qualify for the lifetime capital gains exemption, to name a few.

Understanding the tax implications of investing is an essential part of financial planning and reinforces the importance of working with a knowledgeable financial advisor to understand the long-term impact of these changes as it applies to personal situations. No doubt, tax rates influence capital allocation decisions. Canadians who take more inherent risk with their capital have traditionally been afforded preferred taxation rates promoting innovation through capital investment, something the government can do with good tax policy to encourage business growth and spur economic expansion. This is evident in the breakdown of the tax rates depending on the characterization of the income as noted in the table below.

Clearly the tax rates reflect the added capital risk investors and business owners take. We can clearly see the preferred taxation rates afforded on small business income and at the general corporate tax rates on income over the small business limit, compared to the tax rate on interest income or that of employment income. That tax-preference also extends to investors of “riskier” allocations of capital in marketable securities such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and exchange traded funds, to name a few. The tax rates of less-risky investments (such as money market instruments) do not benefit from the capital gains tax-preferred inclusion rates. With the latest move, there is not much difference in earning eligible dividend income from Canadian resident corporations and from dispositions resulting in capital gains.
Some pundits have declared the move as a disincentive to capital and business investment and may encourage businesses to move into more tax-favoured jurisdictions outside Canada. The Federal government has promoted the change as impacting a very small overall percentage of investors, estimated at 0.13% of Canadian individuals and 12.6% of corporations. Further, the move has been argued by the Liberals as necessary to work towards “intergenerational fairness”.

How to prepare for the changes?
For now, advisors may want to start educating their clients about the basics of the changes, which starts with comparing the current inclusion rates with the new inclusion rates.
Individual investors with large unrealized capital gains will also likely ask if they should crystallize their capital gains before June 25th to save money on taxes in the long run. The assumption that selling now will result in overall savings will not be correct in all cases, however. There is an opportunity cost to paying taxes upfront, rather than deferring those taxes to a later year.
For example, let’s assume an Ontario client owns a $2.5 million non-registered equity portfolio with $2,000,000 in unrealized capital gains. They had no intention of selling those investments for another 5 yeas, but in light of the upcoming changes, they are considering selling immediately, paying the capital gains taxes now, then reinvesting the net amount after taxes back into those same investments for the 5-year investment period. They are currently in the top marginal tax bracket in Ontario (53.53%) and expect to continue to be in 5 years’ time. The assumed average rate of return on their investments is 6% annually over the next 5 years.

As can be seen in this example, at 6% annual compound growth rate, the option to realize much of the capital gains now resulted in a higher overall return in the amount of $61,992.66 over the 5-year period due to the lower inclusion rate. Alternatively stated, if the investor does not crystallize the gains today, the equivalent rate of return needed to have the exact net after tax amount at the end of the 5-year period (the “breakeven return”) would be a 6.60% compound annual return. While this certainly will not be true in all cases, this is the sort of analysis that will have to be conducted when assessing whether it makes sense to realize capital gains in 2024. The rate of return on investment and the investment horizon, among other things, are important determining factors.

Although we used securities investment in our example, a similar analysis can be done for other kinds of property held, such as a vacation property that is unlikely to benefit from the principal residence exemption. In addition, taxes often take a back seat to other planning considerations. These conversations should be had with the primary goals of the client in mind, which may supersede tax planning considerations.

For corporate investors, it will be important to emphasize the impact the capital gains inclusion increase will have on small business owners. As a refresher, a corporation is a separate legal entity from the shareholders who own it and is subject to tax on the income it generates. Income is first taxed within the corporation before it can be passed to the shareholders in the form of dividends out of its retained earnings. To avoid double tax on income that passes through a corporation to shareholders (and to prevent any unintended tax advantages), a dividend gross-up and tax credit model is applied at the individual level, along with a tax refund mechanism to the corporation on passive investment income. This is designed to integrate the tax system between the two entities: individual and corporation. Ideally, perfect integration is achieved when after-tax income is equal, whether it is earned individually or through a corporation. In reality, depending on the province and type of income earned, there could be a tax cost in earning passive investment income through a corporation, including earning passive investment capital gains income. Currently there is a tax cost of earning capital gains income through a corporation across all Canadian provinces/jurisdictions.

The latest change further increases the cost of earning passive investment income inside a corporation, though we do not yet know what changes will be made to the corporate tax refund mechanisms. As noted in the table below, the increase averages approximately 8.43% and closely equates the rate on eligible dividends. This rate reflects the initial tax rate on passive investment income earned within an active business.

For many small businesses, and perhaps to long-term individual investors, this increase in the tax rate will feel unfair as the accumulation of earning a pool of assets for retirement is often done within their small business corporation, and in many cases the sole source of retirement funds.
If an immediate crystallization of accumulated capital gains is not desired, what should investors consider in the longer run? Although many details of the new proposed rules are yet to be clarified, here are some general considerations.
For individuals, it may be helpful to plan the timing of future dispositions to stay below the annual $250,000 threshold. Also, it may seem obvious but maximizing investments within registered plans, including the new first home savings plan (FHSA) where eligible, can reduce exposure to future capital gains tax. Moreover, estate planning becomes even more important as the potential tax payable on the deemed disposition of capital property at death rises. On that front, strategies to reduce capital gains at death could be considered, such as inter-vivos gifting, charitable donation, spousal rollover, and acquiring life insurance to provide sufficient liquidity to the estate.
For business owners, some strategies to limit future capital gain exposure may include contributing to an individual pension plan (IPP), conducting an estate freeze to pass on future capital gains to succession owners, and ensuring the small business shares qualify for the LCGE. The suitable strategies are highly dependent on the business needs and personal situation of the business owner.

Acting too soon or not fast enough?
Finally, there is what many in the industry have been calling a “change of law” risk. That is, within the next year and a half, a federal election is scheduled, and this capital gains inclusion tax policy will surely be a primary election issue. As part of that election platform, parties may promise to repeal it outright or alter its scope and application. Consider also that any changes in the capital gains inclusion rate could be retroactive or simply not apply in all cases.

The information provided is general in nature and may not be relied upon nor considered to be the rendering of tax, legal, accounting or professional advice. Invesco Canada is not providing advice. Readers should consult with their own accountants, lawyers and/or other professionals for advice on their specific circumstances before taking any action. The information contained herein is from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses may all be associated with mutual fund investments. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Please read the simplified prospectus before investing. Copies are available from your advisor or from Invesco Canada Ltd

Date posted: May 23, 2024

Market Commentary January 2025

Key Takeaways

Full year 2024:

Despite reductions of policy-setting interest rates by central banks, yields on longer-term bonds finished the year higher than they started the year.
Positive risk appetite helped corporate bonds perform well, led by lower-quality issuers.
Global equity markets posted robust returns, with U.S. equities outperforming other developed markets, driven by heavy concentration into the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks.

Fourth Quarter:

Central banks continued to ease monetary policy in Q4, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy interest rate more aggressively than did the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The Republican victory across both the executive and legislative branches in the U.S. ignited expectations of economic growth, pushing bond yields and stock prices higher.
Risk sentiment helped corporate bonds continue to outperform government bonds.
Markets remained volatile: while North American stock markets continued to outperform most international indices, Canadian stocks managed to outperform U.S. stocks in Q4, as sources of returns in the U.S. narrowed into year-end.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace in Q4. The rate of inflation continued to slow but remained above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, as the unemployment rate has remained low compared to historical norms. A decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party further boosted expectations for continued growth. The return of the President-elect’s old tactics of threatening tariffs to influence trade, security, and drug control re-introduced some economic uncertainty, particularly regarding the potential return of inflationary pressures. Those concerns prompted the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its policy easing, as it lowered rates by just 0.25% at each of its two meetings in Q4, following the 0.50% cut in September. Throughout 2024, the Fed reduced rates by a total of 100 basis points, from 5.50% to 4.50%. Nonetheless, bond yields were significantly higher for most maturity terms during the fourth quarter as the market priced in not just a stronger economy than had been the expectation during Q3, implying less interest rate cuts by the Fed, but also growing concerns about the government deficit.

In Canada, growth remained positive during 2024 and improved a bit to close the year, but continued to fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations. Similarly, inflation came in lower than expected and below the Bank’s 2% target. The labour market continued to soften for much of the year, with employment growth falling short of labour force growth. The weakness in the labour market and economy, along with tamed inflation, prompted the Central Bank to cut rates at the pace of 50 basis points at each of its two meetings in Q4. For the full year, the Bank of Canada ended up lowering its policy rate by a total of 175 basis points, from 5% to 3.25%. The market has been expecting the Bank of Canada to need to continue cutting rates due to slower economic growth in Canada, but the fear of a possible trade war with the U.S. has made the economic outlook somewhat murkier.

Bond Markets: During the quarter, yields on mid- to long-term bonds in Canada rose in sympathy with rising bond yields in the U.S. However, bond yields in Canada rose to a lesser extent, and yields on shorter-term bonds were actually little changed over the quarter. The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was basically flat during Q4 and posted a return of 4.2% for the full year. Although interest rates rose, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to grind lower, helping corporate bonds post positive overall returns in the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels similar to those experienced in 2021, when markets did quite well after the pandemic. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continued to be very robust in the quarter, with $30 billion in new issuance, resulting in a record-breaking year with $141 billion of new issuance in 2024. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.

Chart2-(1).png

Stock Markets – Overview: Trump’s presidential victory and the Republican party’s ‘red sweep’ in the Senate and House of Representatives sparked optimism surrounding economic growth and a new era of U.S. exceptionalism. As a result, North American equity markets extended their rally in Q4, capping off a year of robust returns. The S&P 500 returned 2.4%, bringing its year-to-date return to 25%. Within the U.S., the broadening of returns paused during the quarter as the chase for growth intensified, with mega-cap growth names like Tesla driving performance. Canadian equities surprisingly outperformed the U.S. market over the quarter, returning 3.8% in Q4, despite threats of widespread tariff negotiations looming on the horizon that could negatively impact Canadian corporate fundamentals. At a sector level, strength in the technology, financials, and energy sectors more than offset weakness in telecommunication companies as well as in the materials sector. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) underperformed last quarter as deteriorating Chinese growth prospects and weak economic growth in the Eurozone weighed on equities. Notably, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities benefitted from a rebounding U.S. dollar with the dollar index adding over 7.6% in Q4.

Chart3-(1).png

U.S. Equities: U.S. equities remain supported by resilient margins and strong corporate earnings growth with over 70% of businesses surpassing bottom-line expectations last quarter. We remain attentive to the broadening of earnings performance and note that this trend has continued, albeit at a normalized pace versus prior quarters. More specifically, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000, excluding the Magnificent 7, posted median earnings growth of 6% last quarter, down from nearly 9% in Q3 but comparable to Q2 (6%). Looking forward to 2025, analysts continue to forecast U.S. exceptionalism, with forecasts of ~12% earnings growth.

Following Trump’s presidential victory, stocks with greater sensitivity to the U.S. economy, such as small cap businesses, benefitted from expectations of domestically focused growth initiatives. However, stubborn inflation and expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the trend of broadening sources of returns pause into the end of the year. Instead, market concentration reaccelerated with investors rushing back towards mega-cap growth stocks. In fact, Tesla – which is approximately 2% of the S&P 500 Index by market cap – contributed approximately one-third of the total index return in Q4, while the Mag 7 as a group contributed over 100% of total returns. In other words, U.S. large cap companies excluding the Magnificent 7 declined in aggregate last quarter.

Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of cooling inflation and below-trend growth, the Bank of Canada continued to loosen monetary policy. As a result, Canadian companies
showed signs of improving efficiency with return on equity – a gauge of corporate profitability – improving versus prior quarters. Under these conditions, investors remained focused on higher quality, high-dividend paying companies – particularly within the financial sector. Relative to prior quarters, this group witnessed greater contribution out of non-bank financials (such as asset managers and insurance companies), as the premium investors were willing to pay for Canadian banks remained elevated. Across other sectors, the energy sector had a positive quarter as the price of oil stabilized, but falling prices for raw industrials pushed the materials sector lower.

Bottom line: U.S. political developments and subsequent growth expectations dominated market sentiment last quarter. As a result, investors dialed back rate cut expectations and bond yields moved higher. In equity markets, the potential for an era of higher-for-longer rates prompted a resumption of investors crowding into growth stocks. Going forward, we remain cautious of elevated valuations and continue to prioritize diversified sources of returns with a long-term outlook. Nonetheless, despite rich valuations, our base case remains that investors’ enthusiasm for equities will persist in the near-term and stocks should continue to outperform bonds.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

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