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1. Market Commentary January 2026
   
   Key Takeaways
   
   Full year 2025:
   • Government policy was very impactful for markets in 2025. U.S. trade policy unsettled markets in the first half of the year, as the U.S. implemented significant tariffs and engaged in tough negotiations with major trading partners. However, by mid-year, fiscal policy provided positive support for markets, particularly with the passing in the U.S. of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July.
   • Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) continued to attract investment, particularly in the United States. This investment provided strong support for equity market performance.
   • Global equity markets delivered strong performance, most notably Canadian equities, which returned an impressive 31.7%.
   • Positive risk appetite supported solid corporate bond performance, which outpaced government bonds.
   
   Fourth Quarter:
   • U.S. equities advanced at a slower pace in the fourth quarter after a strong surge in the prior two quarters. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities, fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors.
   • Canadian bond markets posted slightly negative returns during the quarter as higher interest rates weighed on performance. Strong corporate bond performance partially offset weakness in government bonds.
   • Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered policy interest rates during the quarter, with Canada dropping its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and the U.S. dropping its policy rate by 50 basis points. Both central banks signalled a cautious approach for further easing.
   
   Economic and Market Update

   Economic Summary: The U.S. economy continued to expand at a moderate pace, supported by strong consumer spending and AI investment. However, job growth slowed and the unemployment rate has edged higher. Inflation remains higher than the 2% target, despite easing trends. While some U.S. trading partners have made trade agreements, uncertainty remains regarding reciprocal tariffs, with a case before the U.S. Supreme Court as to their legality. The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate twice during the quarter, first in October and again in December, to reach a target rate of 3.50% to 3.75%. Chair Powell cited downside risks to employment as a key factor behind the rate cut decisions and emphasized that officials are “well positioned” to wait and assess how the economy evolves.
   
   In Canada, U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber have weighed heavily on these sectors. While most goods continue to enter the U.S. tariff-free due to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (“CUSMA”), broader  uncertainty around U.S. trade policy is dampening business investment. Third quarter GDP growth exceeded market expectations, but growth tracked weaker in the fourth quarter amid the trade disputes. The labour market showed signs of improvement in the fourth quarter after earlier weakness. Headline inflation has hovered near the 2% target, while core inflation remained persistent. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in October and made no changes in December. Going into 2026, trade uncertainty remains with the CUSMA up for renegotiation. The Bank of Canada reiterated its readiness to respond if new shocks or accumulating evidence materially alter the outlook.
    

   Bond Markets: During the quarter, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned -0.3% as interest rates on Canadian bonds rose (bond prices fall as interest rates go up). The increase reflected reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and a higher risk premium demanded by investors for long-term debt. Although interest rates increased, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to move lower. These lower credit spreads resulted in positive overall returns for corporate bonds in the quarter, despite the overall bond market recording a loss. Tightening credit spreads reflected the continued risk-on tone to the market. Despite some volatility, lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now rallied back to the tightest spreads since the 2008 financial crisis, nearing the tightest spreads in history. Despite expensive levels, investors remain buyers of corporate bonds, evidenced not just by falling  credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to set new records, with an impressive $37.5 billion in new issuance in the fourth quarter helping 2025 to exceed the prior year’s issuance. All told, 2025 saw an impressive $160 billion in new issuance via 358 new bonds, versus 2024’s prior record of $139 billion from 301 new bonds.
   
   
   Stock Markets: The fourth quarter marked a pivotal shift in the global equity market rally of 2025. After three quarters of a highly concentrated, tech-led rally in the U.S., cyclical and valueoriented sectors outperformed in Q4. The S&P 500 advanced at a slower 2.7% in the fourth quarter, reflecting a market that is recalibrating after an extended period of concentrated gains. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities as the S&P/TSX Composite returned 6.3% in the quarter, finishing the year with an impressive 31.7% return. That was its strongest annual gain since 2009. The strong returns in Canadian equities were fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials sector, supported by soaring gold and base metal prices, and reinforced by the resilience of the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors. Internationally, developed markets in Europe and Asia gained 6.2% for the quarter, bringing their annual return to 21.2%. This move signals a healthy rebalancing as global investors rotated into attractivelyvalued international equities to hedge against elevated U.S. valuations. Capital is now flowing toward regions and sectors offering stronger earnings visibility and defensive characteristics rather than purely speculative growth.
   
   
   U.S. Equities: U.S. equities entered the fourth quarter at elevated valuations. Despite fundamentally strong earnings growth, stock prices struggled to move higher because investor expectations were for even stronger growth. Technology remained the primary driver of earnings, but the sector faced intense pressure to prove its value. Specifically, investors questioned the pace at which companies could convert AI investments into actual revenue. Investors also worried that growth remained concentrated among too few companies rather than more broadly across the economy. Sector-wise, Communication Services emerged as the top performer for the full year due to significant margin expansion. This was driven by a wave of media-related merger activity and the successful use of AI to make digital advertising more efficient. Industrials also advanced as new tax incentives for domestic manufacturing boosted factory orders. Nevertheless, the market remains concentrated with the top ten stocks representing nearly 40% of the S&P 500 Index. This level of concentration makes the market vulnerable to sudden price swings. As inflation moderated and the Federal Reserve cut rates in December, investors shifted toward more defensive sectors and international equities. This rotation signals a preference for companies with stable cash flows over speculative growth.
   
   
   Canadian Equities: The Canadian market was a global standout during the quarter, supported by lower borrowing costs, a stable Financials sector, and rally in the prices of metals (including gold, but also base metals like nickel and copper). The Materials sector led the way as a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions pushed gold to a record of US$4,550 per ounce in late December. For major mining companies, these prices generated record cash flow allowing them to raise dividends and buy back shares. The Bank of Canada interest rate cut supported both the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors, reducing borrowing costs, and helping banks maintain stable net interest margins. The Big Six Canadian Banks delivered strong earnings results in Q4. These were driven by a surge in capital markets activity and better-than-expected provisions for credit losses, as the economy remained resilient. Trading at 17 times forward earnings, the Canadian market appears attractively valued, prompting investors to shift away from U.S. volatility toward more tangible assets and reliable dividends.
   
   
   Bottom line:  The final quarter of 2025 saw a notable shift in investor positioning. As recession fears receded, attention turned to navigating a period of moderate economic expansion. In Canada, capital flowed into profitable, cash flow-generating companies in the Financials and Material sectors. Momentum in U.S. equities slowed as investors reduced risk amid caution around AI developments. Although major indices remain highly valued, opportunities persist in sectors and regions with stable cash flows and pricing power.
   
   
   Downloadable Copy
    

   Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Investments	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Investments	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Public Investments	Jin Li Director, Equity Investments
   Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM Sr. Quantitative Analyst	Andrew Vermeer, CFA Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele  Analyst, Credit	Edward Ng Cheng Hin Analyst, Credit	Kate (Huyen) Vinh Analyst, Equity	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

   
   ADVISOR USE ONLY
   Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
2. Additions and Increases
3. [pdf] FeelingBetterNow
4. [pdf] We’re serious about saving you money
5. February 2023 eNews

   Responding to Nova Scotia’s biosimilar switch initiative

   We are changing coverage for some biologic drugs in Nova Scotia in response to the province’s biosimilar initiative. These changes will help protect your clients’ plans from additional drug costs that may result from this new government policy while providing access to equally safe and effective lower-cost biosimilars. 

   Nova Scotia’s provincial biosimilar initiative

   Announced in February 2022, the Nova Scotia Biosimilar Initiative ends coverage of seven biologic drugs for residents enrolled in Pharmacare programs.
   
   Pharmacare patients in the province using these drugs will be required to switch to biosimilar versions of these drugs by February 3, 2023, in order to maintain their Nova Scotia Pharmacare coverage. 

   Equitable Life’s response

   To ensure this provincial change doesn’t result in your clients’ plans paying additional and avoidable drug costs, we are changing coverage in Nova Scotia for most biologic drugs included in the provincial initiative.
   
   Beginning June 1, 2023, plan members in the province will no longer be eligible for most originator biologic drugs if they have a condition for which Health Canada has approved a lower cost biosimilar version of the drug.** These plan members will be required to switch to a biosimilar version of the drug to maintain coverage under their Equitable Life plan.  

   Can my client maintain coverage of these biologic drugs?

   Traditional groups who wish to opt out of this change and maintain coverage of these originator biologics for Nova Scotia plan members can submit a policy amendment. Amendments must be submitted no later than April 1, 2023. Advisors with myFlex Benefits clients who wish to maintain coverage of these originator biologics for Nova Scotia plan members should speak to their myFlex Sales Manager to confirm their eligibility to opt out of this change.
   
   Groups that choose to maintain coverage of these originator biologics for existing claimants will also maintain coverage for any originator biologics that we subsequently add to our Nova Scotia biosimilar initiative.  

   Will this change impact my clients’ rates?

   The rate impact of this change in coverage will be relatively insignificant. Any cost savings associated with the change will be factored in at renewal.
   
   If plan sponsors opt out of these changes and maintain coverage for the originator biologics, it may result in a rate increase. Any rate adjustment will be applied at renewal.

   Communicating this change to plan members

   We will inform any affected plan members in April of the need to switch their medications so that they have ample time to change their prescriptions and avoid any interruptions in treatment or coverage. 

   What is the difference between biologics and biosimilars?

   Biologics are drugs that are engineered using living organisms like yeast and bacteria. The first version of a biologic developed is known as the “originator” biologic. Biosimilars are highly similar to the drugs they are based on and Health Canada considers them to be equally safe and effective for approved conditions. 

   Questions?

   If you have any questions about this change, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
   
   **The list of affected drugs is dynamic and will change as Nova Scotia includes more biologic drugs in its biosimilar initiative, as new biosimilars come onto the market, and as we make changes in drug eligibility.
    

   Changes to New Brunswick drug interchangeability rules

   We are introducing changes to help ensure that your clients with voluntary or mandatory generic pricing for their drug plans will benefit more from the cost savings of these two features, regardless of the province where the drugs are dispensed.
   
   Currently, when determining whether a lower-cost alternative is available for a brand-name drug, most insurers only consider drugs that the provincial drug plan identifies as interchangeable.
   
   However, the public drug plan in New Brunswick does not identify a drug as interchangeable if the drug is not listed on its formulary – even if Health Canada has deemed the drug interchangeable.
   
   As a result, plans with mandatory or voluntary generic pricing have continued to reimburse some drugs in New Brunswick based on the cost of the brand-name drug, even if a lower-cost generic alternative is available.
   
   Effective March 20, 2023, if your clients have drug plans with mandatory or voluntary generic pricing, we will adjudicate any drug claims in New Brunswick using the lowest cost alternative that Health Canada approves as bioequivalent. This will occur even if the public drug plan has not identified the drug as interchangeable.
   
   To benefit from this more robust drug plan control, plan sponsors must have mandatory or voluntary generic pricing in place.
   
   For more information about this change or about implementing mandatory or voluntary generic pricing for your clients, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
    

   New template: plan members eligible for additional coverage

   Often, based on salary, some plan members may become eligible to apply for extra Life, Accidental Death & Dismemberment (AD&D), Short Term Disability or Long Term Disability coverage. If this occurs, your clients receive a notification from Group Benefits Administration. We have now developed a template that your clients can provide to applicable plan members if they become eligible for extra coverage. The template makes it simpler for your clients to pass on these details to their plan members efficiently.
   
   The new template is available for download under the Quick Links section of EquitableHealth.ca. It is a fillable PDF form that your clients can complete and provide to their plan members when necessary. The document is called Over the Non-Evidence Limit for Plan Members Notification.
   
   If you have any questions about the template, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
6. About
7. Segregated funds – a secure choice for small-business owners Canadian small-business owners may be gambling with their financial future by foregoing personal financial protection, especially during times of economic uncertainty. Small-business owners can potentially put their personal property, investments, and even their retirement savings in jeopardy, if they fail to protect these assets. One way to do that is through investing with segregated funds.
   
   Because segregated fund contracts are held outside of the estate, they offer privacy and discretion in passing assets to those you care about most. Segregated funds offer the potential for creditor protection on both registered and non-registered assets, which can be especially advantageous to small business owners and entrepreneurs.
   
   Segregated funds offer small-business protection:
   • 75% - 100% of your premiums (less withdrawals) are guaranteed when your contract matures or on your death.
   • Bypass probate and associated fees by naming a beneficiary.
   • No deferred sales charges at death.
   • Quick payment to beneficiaries after you pass away.
   • Private and confidential beneficiary designations.
   • Creditor protection may be available in the event of bankruptcy or lawsuit.
   Equitable’s Pivotal Select™ may offer protection from the claims of creditors. Self-employed professionals and business owners should consider protecting their personal assets from professional liability. In the event of bankruptcy or lawsuit, your personal assets may be protected from seizure if you have named your spouse, child, parent or grandchild as beneficiary. Having this added protection can help secure your financial future.  
   
   Learn more about Corporately Owned Segregated Funds and Pivotal Select. If you have any questions, please contact your Director, Investment Sales.
   
   Date posted: October 10, 2024
    
8. Additions and Increases
9. Reinstatements
10. Whole Life