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Market Commentary October 2025
Key Takeaways
• Market sentiment improved significantly in Q3 as economic uncertainties eased.
• Both U.S. and Canadian stock markets posted strong gains. The rally was supported by sector-specific earnings strength and structural growth drivers in AI and digital infrastructure. Equity valuations remain elevated, which could become a potential headwind for future performance.
• Canadian bond markets delivered positive returns in Q3. Returns were largely from underlying interest income, supported by modestly lower interest rates and continued strong performance from tighter credit spreads.
• Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve restarted easing in Q3. Each central bank cut rates by 25 basis points in September, responding to rising risks to labour markets.
Economic and Market UpdateEconomic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity has remained relatively steady through 2025. However, while business investment remained robust, the pace of hiring slowed. Inflation has increased in recent months, but overall price pressures appear contained. Trade uncertainty eased in the third quarter as the U.S. reached agreements on tariffs with several key trading partners. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, as well as the European Union, negotiated compromise deals. These deals typically involved U.S. tariffs in the range of 15% to 20% in exchange for market access or investment commitments. However, other nations faced higher tariffs of 30-50% following failed negotiations. Mexico and China are currently in a 90-day pause on tariff hikes, which will expire on October 29 and November 10, respectively. At its September meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%– 4.25%. The Fed also signaled that additional interest rate cuts will likely be required to support the economy. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted increasing risks to the labour market and decreasing risks to inflation. He emphasized that the Fed remains data dependent and that interest rate decisions will be made “meeting-by-meeting”. The October 1 shutdown of the U.S. government added further uncertainty to the economic outlook. Key data releases are expected to be delayed, and the White House has warned of mass layoffs of federal workers.
The Canadian economy experienced a modest rebound in July following weak growth in the second quarter. However, U.S. tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty continue to present risks to the economy. The labour market continues to weaken while inflationary pressures have eased in recent months. On July 31, the U.S. increased tariffs on Canadian imports from 25% to 35% for those products not exempted under USMCA. In addition, the U.S. has expanded its list of sector-specific tariffs. This is expected to place further strain on Canadian exporters. In response to these developments, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% during its September meeting. Governor Tiff Macklem indicated that the Bank is prepared to take further action if the balance of risks shifts to weaker growth.

Bond Markets: During Q3, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned 1.5%. Yields on Canadian bonds with maturities of 10 years or less declined. That reflected increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Yields on bonds with maturities of greater than 10 years increased moderately, as investors continued to demand a higher risk premium for long-term debt.
Overall, corporate bonds saw a positive return for the quarter and outperformed government bonds. This outperformance was due to the higher interest rate on corporate bonds relative to government bonds, with an assist from modestly tighter credit spreads. Corporate issuance was robust during the quarter with strong investor demand, as investors were willing to look past U.S. tariffs and their potential impact to global growth. There were 99 corporate bond issuances during Q3 that combined to raise $45 billion for issuers, a new record. Indeed, the new issuance market is tracking ahead of last year, the previous high-water mark for issuance.
Notwithstanding the continued strong performance from corporate bonds, we have maintained a bias towards shorter corporate bonds where the risk and reward are better balanced. We remain ready to invest in longer corporate bonds as valuations become attractive.
Stock Markets: Equity markets posted strong gains in Q3. The S&P 500 returned 8.1% for the quarter, led by Information Technology and Communication Services. Investors focused on the expansion of AI infrastructure and a more favourable regulatory environment for blockchain technology. These themes supported risk appetite despite valuations remaining high relative to historical averages. The Canadian market returned 12.5% in Q3, outperforming the U.S. by more than 4%. This was driven mainly by strong returns in the Materials sector. Meanwhile, the Europe, Australasia, and Far East Index (EAFE) returned 5.4%, as international investors re-evaluated the “Sell America” trade trend.

U.S. Equities: In Q3, U.S. equities rose on strong momentum in AI infrastructure investment and growing interest in blockchain innovation. Mega-cap tech stocks led the rally. Major announcements such as NVIDIA’s $100 billion investment in OpenAI and Oracle’s $300 billion multi-year cloud deal highlighted the rapid growth of hyperscale data centers and the deepening commitment to AI development. A more supportive regulatory environment for blockchain technology also boosted investor interest in digital assets. This was reflected in robust IPO activity from crypto-focused companies such as Figure Technology and Gemini. Both stocks saw sharp gains following their public market debuts. That said, the S&P 500 continues to trade at nearly 23 times its forward earnings, roughly 20% above its 10-year average.
Canadian Equities: Canadian equities rose on better-than-expected economic data and sector-driven earnings, outperforming the U.S. by more than 4% in Q3. The Materials sector drove the rally, contributing nearly half of the gain for the TSX in Q3, as the price of gold surged past US$3850/oz (+45% YTD). The Technology sector also posted solid results, highlighted by Shopify’s continued strong performance. Shopify’s AI-driven product expansion and scalable digital commerce growth pushed the stock to trade around 85 times its forward earnings over the next twelve months. Positive sentiment extended to the Financials sector, where better-than-expected provisions for credit losses helped support a revaluation of bank stocks.
Overall, Q3 marked a risk-on environment across North American equities, underpinned by sector-specific earnings strength and structural growth drivers. In the U.S., enthusiasm around AI and digital infrastructure continued to dominate. In Canada, the rally was driven by surging gold prices and better-than-expected bank earnings. These catalysts helped sustain broad-based market strength across both markets.
Bottom line: Overall market sentiment improved in the third quarter following the volatility earlier in the year caused by tariffs. Investors benefited from resilient performance in North American equities and positive performance in fixed income. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve resumed its rate-cutting cycle, while strong consumer demand and continued capex-spending acted as key drivers for the market strength. In Canada, gold prices continued to surge amid persistent safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks. Looking ahead, we will continue to closely monitor valuation levels and underlying economic data for signals of inflection as the cycle progresses.
Downloadable Copy
Mark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public InvestmentsIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public InvestmentsJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Public InvestmentsJin Li
Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM
Sr. Quantitative Analyst
Andrew Vermeer, CFA
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
Edward Ng Cheng Hin
Analyst, Credit
Kate (Huyen) Vinh
Analyst, Equity
Francie Chen
Analyst, Rates
ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. - [pdf] Large case insurance solutions
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Equitable Life Group Benefits COVID-19 Update
The test of a great partner is one who stands tall when you and your clients need to rely on them most. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, we thought you might find it helpful to have a summary of where we are during this crisis.
You can download this PDF version to refer to when meeting with your clients.
We are here with you and for you
We’ve taken several steps to support you, your clients and their plan members during this crisis, including:
- Providing premium refunds for insured, non-refund Health and Dental benefits;
- Waiving the waiting period for short-term disability claimants who tested positive for COVID-19;
- Extending out-of-country travel coverage for plan members who were unable to return to Canada;
- Providing increased flexibility for premium payments; and
- Keeping you and your clients informed with timely Q&As and announcements, webinars, and insights into the impact of COVID-19 on benefits plans.
As well, to commemorate our 100th Anniversary this year, we donated $4.5 million to purchase and install a new MRI for Grand River Hospital. And we donated $50,000 – $10,000 each – to five charities in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. For more information about our celebrations, check out our website at www.equitable100.ca.
We have adjusted our business to become digital
Our business is near 100% digital, so the vast majority of our employees are now working remotely from home and are fully functional. Since the pandemic began, our IT and operations teams have digitally enhanced more than 20 different processes and services to make it easier for us to integrate with our distribution partners in this new reality.
We pride ourselves on our customer service
In 2019, our dedication to customer service was recognized with outstanding survey results.
- In a 2019 survey of customers from 15 life insurance companies,1 Equitable Life ranked #1 on the Net Promoter Score, a measure used across industries to gauge the loyalty of a firm's customer relationships; and
- A survey of Group consultants, brokers and third-party administrators 2 ranked Equitable Life in the top two insurers across all categories.
For 2020, we continue to deliver service at the same level with no disruptions during this crisis. Our Customer Care Centre remains open to support plan members and can be reached at 1.800.265.4556. And our Client Relationship Specialists are available for Plan Administrator questions and support.
We are financially strong and stable
We remain financially strong and continue to focus on meeting the needs of Canadians. At the end of the first quarter, our Life Insurance Capital Adequacy Test (LICAT) ratio is at 152.5%, well above our goal and the regulatory requirement.
As the global situation continues to evolve, rest assured that Equitable Life is unwavering in our commitments to you and the communities we serve. We are here with you and for you. Please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager if you have questions or need assistance.
1 LIMRA CxP Customer Experience Benchmarking Program, Life Insurance In-Force Experience 2019
2 NMG Consulting’s Canadian Group Benefits Survey 2019
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2024 Holiday hours
The Holiday season brings thoughts of gratitude, and there is no better time to express our thanks and sincere appreciation for your dedication and commitment to Equitable.
Thank you for your support this past year and for trusting Equitable with your Individual Insurance and Savings & Retirement business. Happy Holidays!
Client Care Centre Holiday Hours
Friday December 6, 2024 - CLOSED
Tuesday December 24, 2024 - 8:30 a.m. – 11:00 a.m. ET
Wednesday December 25, 2024 – CLOSED
Thursday December 26, 2024 – CLOSED
December 27, 30 and 31, 2024 - 8:30 a.m. – 7:30 p.m. ET
Wednesday January 1, 2025 - CLOSED
Savings & Retirement
All transaction requests to be handled same business day must be submitted in good order by:
● December 24, 2024, 11:00 a.m. ET
● December 31, 2024, 11:00 a.m. ET
FHSA applications to be considered for 2024 contribution year must be submitted in good order by:
● December 31, 2024, 11:59 p.m. ET
FHSA online banking deposit deadline for 2024 contribution receipt:
● December 24, 2024, 4:00 p.m. ET Note: Transaction requests submitted after 11:00 a.m. ET will be processed effective next business day
RRSP deposits to be considered for the 2024 tax year must be:
● Dated March 3, 2025, or before
● Must be submitted to Head Office in good order by March 7, 2025, by 4:00 p.m. ET
RRSP applications to be considered for 2024 contribution year must be submitted in good order by:
● March 3, 2025, 11:59 p.m. ET
RRSP B2B Loans:
● RRSP loan deposits must be received by March 14, 2025, by 4:00 p.m. ET
Note: Transactions submitted after these dates will not receive a 2024 contribution receipt
Individual Insurance
Underwriting
● Underwriting must receive all evidence and outstanding Underwriting requirements by December 9th at the latest. Underwriting will then be able to decision these cases by December 16th. This will give the New Business team December 13th – December 31st to issue and settle policies.
New Business
● New Business will continue to process all issue and settle requirements every business day until the last working day of the year – December 31st. New Business needs to receive ALL final settle documents in Good Order within our posted service standards. We are currently operating at a 3 business day turn around time.
Field Payroll
● Second Last Pay Period for 2024 – December 11, 2024 to December 17, 2024 (Transmission/Statement date December 18, 2024)
● Last Pay Period of 2024 – December 18, 2024 to December 31, 2024 (Transmission/Statement date January 2, 2025)
● First Pay of 2025 – January 1, 2025 to January 7, 2025 (Transmission/Statement date on January 8, 2025)
Daily Pay will run on business days.
Please note that all requirements must be received in Head Office by the above dates to guarantee settlement for year end.
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