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EAMG Market Commentary July 2023

July 17, 2023

Rates & Credit - The rates market was volatile in Q2 as investors focused on inflation, central bank interest rate decisions, and recession probabilities. Persistent strength in U.S. consumer spending and labour markets have surprised investors and prompted further interest rate tightening from central banks. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index during the quarter, with a total return of 0.2%, versus a loss of 1.0% for government bonds and 0.7% for the overall Index. The corporate bond outperformance was driven by a broad risk-on tone to the market, most notably in April as the market recovered from the banking sector liquidity crisis that developed during March. That said, the market tone remained cautious, with the improved risk premium on corporate bonds tempered by lingering concerns around sticky inflation, high interest rates, and the potential for slower economic growth into the latter half of the year.

Dominance of U.S. Equities – U.S. equity markets posted another strong quarter with the S&P 500 returning 8.7%, outperforming Canada and other major international equity markets. The S&P/TSX Composite, returned 1.2% in CAD. Major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) returned 3.2% in local currency terms. The highly anticipated re-opening of the Chinese economy has failed to materialize with economic data indicating less strength than previously forecasted. Amid sluggish Chinese growth, closely interconnected economic partners such as the European Union, as well as commodity-driven markets like Canada, have all underperformed the U.S. on a relative basis.

U.S. Fundamentals – Earnings continued to contract versus prior year, albeit at a slower pace than forecasted. Forward earnings guidance improved quarter-over-quarter with corporate sentiment returning to neutral levels. Based on our analysis, we observed that 31% of major companies expect deteriorating financial performance, while 33% expect improved performance, with the remaining expecting no material change. Overall, major U.S. companies remain well capitalized with strong operating margins. However, company guidance indicates a prioritization of cost controls amid increased consumer indebtedness and concerns about the health of the consumer.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Mania – Despite concerns that the U.S. economy is at a late stage in its economic cycle, that monetary tightening by central banks could go too far, and the fact that earnings contracted on a year-over-year basis, equity markets became more expensive during the quarter with price-to-earnings multiples expanding. This expansion was driven by investors crowding into AI focused technology companies, with the seven largest AI/technology themed companies averaging a 26% return while the other 493 members gained only 3%. Investors rewarded businesses with contributions to AI development (hardware and software components), as well as those with the ability to implement synergies from leveraging the technology. A crowded market surge is not uncommon at this point in the economic cycle, where positive economic surprises, in this instance, strong employment and consumer spending can lead to an upswelling in investor confidence.

U.S. Quant Factors – Using our investment framework, we currently favour exposures to large cash-rich companies with innovative product offerings, which we believe offer the strongest risk-adjusted returns in the current market environment. While the valuation of AI companies seems to defy traditional rationales, the momentum has continued to push the group higher. Consequently, the Quality factor (companies with higher return-on-equity, strong operating performance, and healthy leverage levels) participated in the AI trend and consistently outperformed throughout the quarter. The Low Volatility factor (stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement, and lower price volatility) underperformed through the quarter. While the Low Volatility factor typically performs well at this stage of the economic cycle, the fact that a small number of stocks were responsible for much of the market’s return hurt this factor. Lastly, the Momentum factor (stocks with a recent history of price appreciation) initially underperformed during the quarter before rebounding in June. This factor’s recent outperformance suggests that the market is becoming complacent and possibly signals that rotations within the market are slowing as current trends remain in favour.

Canadian Fundamentals – Top line revenue missed forecasts while bottom line earnings were consistent with expectations. Softer-than-expected results out of Canadian financials, as well as underwhelming results from the materials sector, dragged on the aggregate index performance. Earnings forecasts for the rest of the year have been revised downward with analyst expecting index aggregate earnings to detract 2% to 3%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.75% on the backdrop of robust economic data releases including Q1 GDP and April CPI.

Canadian Quant Factors – The most notable dislocation in Canada was the convergence of the dividend yield of High-Dividend ETFs and Equal-Weight Bank ETFs. We believe that the drag from Canadian banks following the U.S. regional banking concerns in March resulted in a discount of the Quality factor as the performance of the group is sensitive to the movements of banks. While banks did recover around 35% of their SVB-induced underperformance, the nature of banking has attracted investor scrutiny given the view that we are in the late-stage of the economic cycle. That said, this environment is an attractive environment to add variants of the Quality factor, which would gain exposure to a rebounding industry that offers a similar dividend yield to the high dividend stocks.

Views From the Frontline

Rates – On an outright basis, bond yields across the curve continue to look attractive. Economic data remains strong however we are beginning to see the first signs of weakness in spending, jobs and inflation. Slower growth, a more balanced labour market, declining inflation, and tighter credit conditions will likely drive interest rates lower throughout 2023. Market participants remain focused on the extent of interest rate hikes and the duration of a pause required to bring inflation back to the 2% target. With inflation remaining more persistent than previously expected forecasts around the timing, pace and extent of the removal of monetary policy have been pushed into 2024.

Credit – The uncertain economic outlook and risks around slower economic growth later this year merit caution about corporate bonds and a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we think the risk / reward dynamic are more favourable. That said, the “soft-landing” narrative, now more pervasive in the market, could continue to provide support to risk assets, which we view as an opportunity to further pare down higher beta exposure.

Equities – Given the direction of the current economic and company fundamental data, we continue to favour high quality growth segments of the market with strong operating margins. As such, the late cycle conditions in the market reinforce our preference for large cap stocks over smaller, more U.S. domestically focused businesses. The U.S. Low Volatility factor’s underperformance is unlikely to reverse in the short term given the resilience of the U.S. economy. Furthermore, after a steep decline last quarter, we expect that cyclical value will find support in the near term, echoing the increased chance of slowing inflation without stalling economic growth. In Canada, equities are typically more cyclical in nature, which coupled with the potential for an earnings contraction, makes us view the Low Volatility factor as more likely to outperform. Like the U.S., we prefer Canadian high-quality companies to navigate through the late cycle environment. On the heels of poor Chinese economic data and underwhelming stimulus, we are maintaining our overweight to the U.S. relative to Canada and EAFE.

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ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
Posted July 27, 2023

EAMG Market Commentary April 2024 April 2024

Rates & Credit – Interest rates increased in Q1 2024, giving back half of the decline experienced in Q4 2023 amid consistently positive surprises in U.S. economic data. The positive economic news also drove a strong risk-on tone to the market, with the risk premium on corporate bonds tightening as economic prospects improved. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index (FTSE) with a slightly positive 0.07% return, verses a loss of 1.66% in government bonds and a loss of 1.22% for the overall index. More interest rate sensitive long-term bonds experienced the largest decline, which was partially offset in corporate bonds by the risk-on tone to corporate bond spreads. On a 6-month and 1-year basis, the FTSE remained positive at 6.94% and 2.10%, respectively. Within corporate bonds, lower-rated BBBs outperformed higher-rated A bonds, while industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications underperformed those with less exposure (notably financials and securitization).

Equity Overview – Throughout Q1 2024, concerns about a recession gradually eased as central bankers adopted a more accommodative outlook on monetary policy. Their growing dovishness reflected confidence that the restrictive monetary measures were effectively curbing inflation as anticipated. Underpinned by prospects of an economic soft-landing, global equity markets rallied to start the year with most major North American indices soaring to new all-time highs during the quarter. U.S. equities continued to outperform other major international markets with the S&P 500 returning 10.6% in USD terms. Major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) gained 10.1% in local currency terms, while the TSX added 6.6%. Furthermore, the U.S. economy continued to prove more resilient than most major developed economies, with strong employment and robust output data. As such, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities achieved enhanced returns, benefitting from a stronger Greenback.

U.S. Fundamentals – Corporate earnings beat expectations in Q4 2023, triggering a wave of upward earnings revision. Stable operating margins, cash flows and debt loads continue to attract investors into equities. Investors appear focused on the company’s ability to sustain debt levels ahead of renewing debt obligations. We observed that the number of major companies that expect improving financial performance shrunk to ~19%. This suggests that concentration risks are likely brewing in the equity market, yet again.

U.S. Quant Factors
Optimistic run-up in equity valuations were mostly driven by the momentum factor. A basket of companies with positive price trends intensified concentration risk in the equity market. We note that momentum factor’ performance sharply contrasted fundamental factors, making us cautious on the market’s complacency. For context, high quality companies, which is typically defined by high Return on Equity (ROE), stable earnings variability, and low financial leverage, placed second in our risk-adjusted performance rankings, and is dwarfed by the ~ 17.9% return observed from the momentum factor.

Canadian Fundamentals – Against the backdrop of underwhelming financial results, ROE – a gauge of how efficiently a corporation generates profits – rebounded in Q4, 2023, after declining throughout most of the year. The improved efficiency metric provided a positive catalyst for dividend investors as the inverse movements of ROE relative to financing costs over 2023 kept investors on the sidelines. In addition, the CRB Raw Industrials Index, a measure of price changes of basic commodities, broke out of recent ranges, providing a tailwind for Canada’s energy and materials sector. Concerns with earnings contraction and macro-economic conditions have subsided.

Canadian Quant Factors – Crude prices soared higher in Q1 2024, with ongoing production cuts from OPEC+ and ramifications of geopolitical conflicts keeping oil markets undersupplied. As such, energy companies benefitted, surging higher and outperforming the broader index, while the low volatility basket – with lower exposure to cyclically sensitive business – underperformed into quarter end. Furthermore, Canadian banks underperformed to start the quarter, giving back some of the sharp outperformance witnessed into the end of Q4 2023. That said, soft inflation data increased expectations of impending rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and, as such, banks performed in line with the broader market throughout most of the quarter. Underpinned by expectations of a dovish switch in monetary policy, investors rewarded dividend payers with a history of increasing dividends, boosting confidence in their ability to support future dividend growth. It is important to note that investors should not let dividend growth’s outperformance overshadow high dividend paying companies’ underperformance; more specifically, investors remain attentive to the businesses’ ability to create value relative to financing costs.

Views From the Frontline

Rates – Interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. increased across all bond tenors in Q1 2024. U.S. inflation data surprised to the upside, remaining stubbornly higher than hoped, while labour market and consumer indicators underscored the economy's continued strength. In Canada, inflation data fell below forecasts, but early 2024 GDP readings exceeded expectations. The market now anticipates a 'soft landing' for the U.S. economy; however, the Canadian economy continues to slow. North American central banks have signaled that we are at the peak for policy rates. The market is currently pricing in approximately two-to-three, 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in the second half of 2024, much fewer than the six-to-seven 25 basis point interest rate cuts that the market had been anticipating even just three months ago. As the Swiss central bank led the way with the first rate cut among developed countries, central banks in major developed economies will closely monitor upcoming data and market developments to determine the timing and pace for rate cuts.

Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) continued to tighten over the quarter, with a strong risk-on tone to the market as investors priced in renewed economic growth in 2024 as compared to previous expectations. Corporate bond supply was robust, with $38.2bn in new issuance, the second strongest first quarter on record. On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable.

Equity – We favour a combination of the Dow Jones and the S&P500 for our broad market exposure. The Dow, a price-weighted index, should have some value and low volatility tilt as it tracks mature large companies. As explained above, concentration risks are brewing in the equity market, and during Q1 this risk was exacerbated by investors rushing into a basket of companies with positive price trends, thereby pushing valuation metrics further into the expensive territory. In our view, it is well-suited to use a combination of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 for broad U.S. market exposure given the heightened concentration risk. Looking forward, we expect companies to exhibit stable operating margins and therefore, we are shifting our focus toward the balance between upcoming corporate debt refinancing requirements and reinvestment in projects intended to drive future growth. In plain words, we are tactically adding to companies with stable cash flows and decreased debt loads outside of the mega-cap group. In Canada, we expect a modest earnings growth and remain attentive to how efficiently a corporation generates profits relative to their financing cost. We caution against the overly optimistic, commodity driven, “catch-up” trade vs. our southern neighbour. Therefore, we tweaked our investment strategy by rotating out of the low volatility factor and adding to higher yielding quality companies in Canada.

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Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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EAMG - Macro Tear Sheet – Recent Market Volatility Summary By separating the noise from the signals, we believe the rotation away from the mega-cap technology names is likely to continue. Recent market volatility, triggered by a multitude of factors that include the unwind of the carry trade, investor reactions to mixed mega-cap earnings, and U.S. economic data, may present more investment opportunities for long-term outperformance. Recall over the past year that the majority of U.S. stock market performance came from a limited number of mega-cap technology companies and, in our view, moving forward it will be prudent to analyze the source of returns as rapid market rotations may punish overly-concentrated portfolios.

Inflation Slows (July 11) – Headline U.S. inflation readings increased 3.0% year-over-year in June, decelerating from May (3.3%). With prices slowing ahead of forecasts but economic growth remaining strong, investors became more confident regarding the prospects of an economic soft landing.
Outcome: market strength broadened with traders rotating out of highly concentrated areas of the market (“Fabulous 5”) and into more economically sensitive stocks that had been left behind.

• Big Tech Earnings (July 23 – Aug 1) – High profile mega-cap technology companies – including many members of the Magnificent 7 – reported earnings growth that generally surpassed expectations as margins remained healthy. That said, investors were more focused on spending towards AI-initiatives, rewarding businesses with greater success translating their AI investments into higher sales.
Outcome: this trend is evident through the divergence of returns from IBM and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) after releasing their quarterly earnings. The limited number of companies that contributed to the returns of the S&P 500 failed to impress investors, extending the rotation into other areas of the market.

• Caution is Brewing – Following a strong rally of economically sensitive pockets of the market, notably a breakout of returns from U.S. small cap companies, the low volatility factor, which tends to outperform during times of stress, moved in sync with the small caps’ strength.
Outcome: with a lack of fundamental justification supporting small cap performance, markets showed signs of caution.

• Central Bank Decisions (July 31)– The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged during its July meeting, in line with market expectations, reiterating committee members’ need for greater confidence that inflation would continue to subside. That said, policymakers signaled a reduction in policy rates could be a possibility in the coming meetings. In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased its key interest rate while also announcing plans to scale back bond purchases – restrictive monetary policy maneuvers aimed at backstopping the depreciating Japanese currency.
Outcome: the bifurcation between the BoJ and most other major central banks sparked a sharp appreciation of the yen and a rapid unwind of the yen carry trade (see below for explanation).

• Growth Scare (August 2)– In early August, a downside surprise in U.S. nonfarm payrolls (114k actual versus 175k expected) and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, higher than the 4.1% that was expected and up from 3.5% a year ago triggered concerns of a cooling labor market.
Outcome: speculation swelled surrounding the pace of rate cuts with market participants expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates as much as 125bps over the next 3 policy meetings, up from 50-75bps as of the end of July. Against this backdrop, the ongoing unwind of the yen carry trade accelerated.

Yen Carry Trade Explained
• Simply put, investors have been borrowing Japanese yen – a low yielding currency – to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets. The primary risks in a carry trade can include the uncertainty of foreign exchange rates (if unhedged), as well as changes to expectations of the underlying yields, among other risks. Over the last 2 decades, the BoJ has implemented an ultra-low interest rate monetary policy to combat deflation and stimulate growth. Furthermore, investors were emboldened by the Japanese yen’s ~53% depreciation versus the U.S. dollar over the last 10 years. With the BoJ hiking its key interest rate while also announcing plans to scale back bond purchases, the yen rallied abruptly. Consequently, highly leveraged investors have had to exit their long positions in riskier assets to repay their borrowed yen exposure.

Peak Carry Trade Unwind – Buying Opportunity
• Peak carry trade unwind, which implies heightened panic levels, has historically created an attractive buying environment. That said, we are focused on companies that have demonstrated robust earnings growth and healthy leverage. Given the unprecedented level of market concentration over the last year, we view the unwind of the carry trade as another catalyst for investors to rotate out of the “Fabulous 5”.

Our Findings:
We found that the peak unwind of the carry trade may be a buying opportunity. At present, the current level of the unwind is similar to many notable market bottoms, including the Great Financial Crisis (2008), the European debt crisis (2010), the oil crash (2014), the subsequent emerging market crisis (2015), the Covid-19 crash (2020), and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (2023). We assessed the degree of the unwind by looking at the one-month implied volatility between three currency pairs, U.S. Dollar/Yen, Australian Dollar/Yen, and Euro/Yen. Implied volatility is a measure of the expected future volatility of the underlying assets over a given time period. Amid strong earnings growth and steady margins from quality businesses within the U.S. market, the fundamental backdrop suggests that businesses outside the concentrated AI-darlings may drive the next leg of market returns.

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Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

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EAMG Market Commentary July 2024
Rates & Credit – In Q2 2024, U.S. inflation and economic growth data was mixed, leading to moderately higher interest rates in the U.S. Meanwhile, in Canada, long-end interest rates were little changed during the quarter, but short-term interest rates fell. That was due to the weaker economic outlook, as well as the Bank of Canada’s decision to reduce its overnight interest rate in June, with anticipation of further monetary policy easing to come. Canadian corporate bonds returned 1.1%, outperforming the 0.8% return of government bonds as well as the 0.9% return for the overall FTSE Canada Universe Bond index. Shorter-dated bonds outperformed longer-dated bonds. Within corporate bonds, lower-rated BBBs outperformed higher-rated A bonds, while industries that have shorter-dated debt (e.g. real estate and financials) outperformed those that tend to have longer-dated debt (e.g. communications and infrastructure).

Equity Overview – Against the backdrop of volatile inflation data and a lack of indication from the Federal Reserve that it was prepared to start cutting interest rates yet, U.S. equity markets decoupled from other regions. Crowding into AI-focused, mega-cap names accelerated in Q2. More specifically, investors defaulted toward the Magnificent 7 to navigate the current period, overlooking broadening earnings breadth and less expensive valuations from the remaining S&P 493. Outside the U.S., equity returns were generally mundane in dollar terms. That said, emerging markets proved to be a bright spot for investors seeking value, as the rebound in heavily discounted Chinese equities helped push frontier markets higher.

U.S. Fundamentals – Corporate earnings continued to surpass expectations last quarter with stable operating margins helping businesses report better-than-expected bottom line results. Investors remain focused on the ability of companies to sustain debt levels ahead of renewing debt obligations, rewarding businesses with a strong ability to generate stable cash flows. Moreover, while prior quarters have witnessed earnings growth that was largely driven by highly profitable mega-cap technology stocks, U.S. markets are witnessing a broadening trend in earnings strength, with previously stunted segments of the market recovering. Our work shows that members of the Russell 1000 index, excluding the Magnificent 7, posted a median earnings growth of about 6% last quarter, with nearly 60% of companies increasing earnings versus the year prior. Furthermore, we observed an increase in the number of major companies that expect improving financial performance to approximately 27%, suggesting that the recovery in earnings breadth may persist.

U.S. Quant Factors – As mentioned, concentration in the equity market drove a surge in valuations as investors continued to chase specific mega-cap technology stocks. In fact, within the Russell 1000 growth factor – which screens for companies whose earnings are expected to grow at an above-average rate relative to the market – the Magnificent 7 totaled nearly 55% of the entire index by quarter-end. In addition, the Nasdaq 100 – which is generally viewed as a technology-biased index – saw the weight of the Magnificent 7 rise to almost 43% of the entire index by the end of the quarter. Furthermore, the equal-weighted S&P 500 underperformed the cap-weighted index by nearly 7% last quarter, bringing the year-to-date divergence to about 10%. With concentration accelerating, the cap-weighted index outperformance has soared past Covid-era levels, a period that saw investors rapidly crowd into profitable technology names due to panic and economic uncertainty. We remain cautious of a severely crowded market that trades near all-time highs as strong performance from 5-7 names distorts the overall stature of market conditions.

Canadian Fundamentals – Although Canadian companies exceeded bleak forecasts, earnings continue to contract on a year-over-year basis. Furthermore, earnings revisions have grinded lower with easing monetary conditions unable to offset concerns of a slowing economic environment. We note the sharp contrast versus the U.S. as the bifurcation of earnings performance widens. The CRB Raw Industrials Index, a measure of price changes of basic commodities, broke out of recent ranges as metals rallied higher despite a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated interest rates. The mining industry benefited from a sustained elevation in prices, helping the materials sector outperform over the quarter. Returns from the heavily-weighted Canadian banks were constrained last quarter with company-specific drivers – including regulatory challenges from TD, and underwhelming U.S. results from BMO – limiting performance. More broadly, the banks continue to build prudent credit provisions to mitigate uncertain economic forecasts and remain well capitalized.

Canadian Quant Factors – With investors remaining attentive to businesses’ ability to create value relative to financing costs, we see value in high quality, dividend-paying companies with strong earnings sustainability and a healthy degree of leverage. Based on our work, investors of the Canadian banks appear well compensated, with the current premium between value creation and current yield remaining compressed. In our opinion, the market has modest expectations regarding prospects for value generation from the banks and, therefore, we believe the industry stands to benefit if the premium reverts closer to historical norms. We also continue to see sources of quality dividend opportunities within certain areas of the energy sector. More specifically, we believe companies that have taken steps to improve their balance sheets through deleveraging efforts, and with improved operating leverage, offer attractive prospects given their stable and high-yielding composition.

Views From the Frontline

Rates – During the first half of the second quarter, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. increased, continuing the upward momentum from Q1. Higher-than-expected inflation data in the U.S. along with mixed economic growth data caused investors to push out expectations for when the U.S. Federal Reserve would start lowering its interest rate. This trend shifted in the second half of Q2, as positive economic momentum slowed in the U.S. economy and inflation data began to soften. Interest rates in Canada declined more rapidly than in the U.S. due to more benign inflation, a weaker job market, and economic growth remaining below population growth. This economic weakening provided the confidence required for the Bank of Canada to cut rates by 25 basis points in June to 4.75%. The Bank also signaled that if inflation continues to ease and the Bank’s confidence grows that inflation would continue to trend toward its 2% inflation target, it is reasonable to expect further cuts. The second quarter marked a pivotal point for the global policy easing cycle. Sweden, Canada, and the European Central Bank all began lowering their policy rates, and Switzerland made a second rate cut, following one in Q1. The market continues to speculate on the timing of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. Interest rate cut expectations are largely unchanged in Canada since last quarter, with a total of three rate cuts expected throughout 2024. Expectations for the rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve declined slightly, however, to two cuts in 2024.

Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) was largely flat over the quarter, with spreads approaching the tight post-pandemic levels experienced in 2021. Corporate bond supply continues to be very robust, with $41bn in new issuance. Year-to-date, corporate issuance has set a new record, with an impressive $80bn in issuance. On balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.

Equity – On the backdrop of a heavily concentrated U.S. market rally, we remain cautious of the distortion to market returns from high-flying technology stocks. As a result, we continue to favour a combination of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 for our broad U.S. market exposure. The Dow provides a more diversified exposure to 30 prominent large-cap companies and less concentration in technology relative to the S&P. Broadening earnings strength presents an opportunity for previously out-of-favour names to “catch-up”. In our view, companies outside the Magnificent 7 that have demonstrated robust earnings growth, strong cash flow generation, along with decreased debt loads, are well-positioned to benefit from internal market rotations. As such, we gain exposure to these companies through the quality factor – companies with higher return-on-equity, strong operating performance, and healthy leverage levels – and the dividend growth factor – businesses with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends.

In Canada, we remain attentive to how efficiently corporations are generating profits relative to financing costs. Looking forward, we continue to monitor the ability of businesses to generate profits given a decline in capital spending. More specifically, we are focused on businesses’ ability to grow and sustain dividends amid the lag between easing monetary conditions and consumption. Due to this, we observe value in higher yielding companies that are higher on the spectrum of quality. Geographically, we maintain our overweight U.S. exposure, underpinned by encouraging U.S. inflation data trends, broadening corporate earnings growth, and normalizing consumption. In addition, sluggish Chinese data and the lack of positive earnings revisions from EAFE tilt the risk-adjusted return profile in favour of the U.S. Lastly, as a Canadian investor, fluctuations in the Loonie’s relative value versus other major currencies continues to present tactical trading opportunities within our investment mandate.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

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