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Market Commentary January 2026
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Key Takeaways
Full year 2025:
• Government policy was very impactful for markets in 2025. U.S. trade policy unsettled markets in the first half of the year, as the U.S. implemented significant tariffs and engaged in tough negotiations with major trading partners. However, by mid-year, fiscal policy provided positive support for markets, particularly with the passing in the U.S. of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July.
• Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) continued to attract investment, particularly in the United States. This investment provided strong support for equity market performance.
• Global equity markets delivered strong performance, most notably Canadian equities, which returned an impressive 31.7%.
• Positive risk appetite supported solid corporate bond performance, which outpaced government bonds.
Fourth Quarter:
• U.S. equities advanced at a slower pace in the fourth quarter after a strong surge in the prior two quarters. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities, fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors.
• Canadian bond markets posted slightly negative returns during the quarter as higher interest rates weighed on performance. Strong corporate bond performance partially offset weakness in government bonds.
• Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered policy interest rates during the quarter, with Canada dropping its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and the U.S. dropping its policy rate by 50 basis points. Both central banks signalled a cautious approach for further easing.
Economic and Market UpdateEconomic Summary: The U.S. economy continued to expand at a moderate pace, supported by strong consumer spending and AI investment. However, job growth slowed and the unemployment rate has edged higher. Inflation remains higher than the 2% target, despite easing trends. While some U.S. trading partners have made trade agreements, uncertainty remains regarding reciprocal tariffs, with a case before the U.S. Supreme Court as to their legality. The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate twice during the quarter, first in October and again in December, to reach a target rate of 3.50% to 3.75%. Chair Powell cited downside risks to employment as a key factor behind the rate cut decisions and emphasized that officials are “well positioned” to wait and assess how the economy evolves.
In Canada, U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber have weighed heavily on these sectors. While most goods continue to enter the U.S. tariff-free due to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (“CUSMA”), broader uncertainty around U.S. trade policy is dampening business investment. Third quarter GDP growth exceeded market expectations, but growth tracked weaker in the fourth quarter amid the trade disputes. The labour market showed signs of improvement in the fourth quarter after earlier weakness. Headline inflation has hovered near the 2% target, while core inflation remained persistent. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in October and made no changes in December. Going into 2026, trade uncertainty remains with the CUSMA up for renegotiation. The Bank of Canada reiterated its readiness to respond if new shocks or accumulating evidence materially alter the outlook.
Bond Markets: During the quarter, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned -0.3% as interest rates on Canadian bonds rose (bond prices fall as interest rates go up). The increase reflected reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and a higher risk premium demanded by investors for long-term debt. Although interest rates increased, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to move lower. These lower credit spreads resulted in positive overall returns for corporate bonds in the quarter, despite the overall bond market recording a loss. Tightening credit spreads reflected the continued risk-on tone to the market. Despite some volatility, lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now rallied back to the tightest spreads since the 2008 financial crisis, nearing the tightest spreads in history. Despite expensive levels, investors remain buyers of corporate bonds, evidenced not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to set new records, with an impressive $37.5 billion in new issuance in the fourth quarter helping 2025 to exceed the prior year’s issuance. All told, 2025 saw an impressive $160 billion in new issuance via 358 new bonds, versus 2024’s prior record of $139 billion from 301 new bonds.
Stock Markets: The fourth quarter marked a pivotal shift in the global equity market rally of 2025. After three quarters of a highly concentrated, tech-led rally in the U.S., cyclical and valueoriented sectors outperformed in Q4. The S&P 500 advanced at a slower 2.7% in the fourth quarter, reflecting a market that is recalibrating after an extended period of concentrated gains. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities as the S&P/TSX Composite returned 6.3% in the quarter, finishing the year with an impressive 31.7% return. That was its strongest annual gain since 2009. The strong returns in Canadian equities were fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials sector, supported by soaring gold and base metal prices, and reinforced by the resilience of the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors. Internationally, developed markets in Europe and Asia gained 6.2% for the quarter, bringing their annual return to 21.2%. This move signals a healthy rebalancing as global investors rotated into attractivelyvalued international equities to hedge against elevated U.S. valuations. Capital is now flowing toward regions and sectors offering stronger earnings visibility and defensive characteristics rather than purely speculative growth.
U.S. Equities: U.S. equities entered the fourth quarter at elevated valuations. Despite fundamentally strong earnings growth, stock prices struggled to move higher because investor expectations were for even stronger growth. Technology remained the primary driver of earnings, but the sector faced intense pressure to prove its value. Specifically, investors questioned the pace at which companies could convert AI investments into actual revenue. Investors also worried that growth remained concentrated among too few companies rather than more broadly across the economy. Sector-wise, Communication Services emerged as the top performer for the full year due to significant margin expansion. This was driven by a wave of media-related merger activity and the successful use of AI to make digital advertising more efficient. Industrials also advanced as new tax incentives for domestic manufacturing boosted factory orders. Nevertheless, the market remains concentrated with the top ten stocks representing nearly 40% of the S&P 500 Index. This level of concentration makes the market vulnerable to sudden price swings. As inflation moderated and the Federal Reserve cut rates in December, investors shifted toward more defensive sectors and international equities. This rotation signals a preference for companies with stable cash flows over speculative growth.
Canadian Equities: The Canadian market was a global standout during the quarter, supported by lower borrowing costs, a stable Financials sector, and rally in the prices of metals (including gold, but also base metals like nickel and copper). The Materials sector led the way as a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions pushed gold to a record of US$4,550 per ounce in late December. For major mining companies, these prices generated record cash flow allowing them to raise dividends and buy back shares. The Bank of Canada interest rate cut supported both the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors, reducing borrowing costs, and helping banks maintain stable net interest margins. The Big Six Canadian Banks delivered strong earnings results in Q4. These were driven by a surge in capital markets activity and better-than-expected provisions for credit losses, as the economy remained resilient. Trading at 17 times forward earnings, the Canadian market appears attractively valued, prompting investors to shift away from U.S. volatility toward more tangible assets and reliable dividends.
Bottom line: The final quarter of 2025 saw a notable shift in investor positioning. As recession fears receded, attention turned to navigating a period of moderate economic expansion. In Canada, capital flowed into profitable, cash flow-generating companies in the Financials and Material sectors. Momentum in U.S. equities slowed as investors reduced risk amid caution around AI developments. Although major indices remain highly valued, opportunities persist in sectors and regions with stable cash flows and pricing power.
Downloadable Copy
Mark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public InvestmentsIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public InvestmentsJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Public InvestmentsJin Li
Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM
Sr. Quantitative Analyst
Andrew Vermeer, CFA
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
Edward Ng Cheng Hin
Analyst, Credit
Kate (Huyen) Vinh
Analyst, Equity
Francie Chen
Analyst, Rates
ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. -
Delegation Requests Now Available on EquiNet
We are excited to announce a new feature that will help make it easier for you to do business with Equitable Life.
This new feature allows you, to submit a delegation request through the “Access” tab under your EquiNet profile.
Once the delegation request has been completed, the specified people will be able to view and manage the policies of the Advisor who submitted the request, as long as they have codes of their own within the system.
Please contact the customer service team at customerservice@equitable.ca for more information. -
New illustration software now available!
We have updated our illustration software. Please be sure to download the latest version:
2023-3 (August 2023).
- Web-based illustration software on secure EquiNet® (log in required)
- Desktop illustration software
We have new rates for our Equimax® Wealth Accumulator and Estate Builder plans. Please refer to our Transition Rules for all the details on processing your applications.
Need more information?
For information on these changes, please contact your Equitable Life wholesaler.
® denotes a trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada. -
Claims payments and notifications will go fully digital on July 1, 2023
We are committed to providing a better benefits experience. We have secure and convenient digital options to make it easier for plan members to access and use their benefits plan, including EquitableHealth.ca and the EZClaim Mobile app.
Most plan members are already using these tools to set up email claim notifications and direct deposit. They get their claim updates faster and their claims paid more quickly, right into their bank account.
To help ensure that all plan members benefit from faster claim payments and notifications, we are making these services fully digital as of July 1, 2023. That means, in most cases, we will no longer mail paper claim cheques or explanation of benefits (EOB) notifications.**
Plan members who haven’t already activated direct deposit and email notifications will need to activate these services via their plan member account on EquitableHealth.ca.How we’ll help plan members get set up
Fortunately, it’s simple for plan members to set up these features. And it only takes a few minutes. To make it even easier, we’ve created a Plan Member Guide to Getting Started Online. It includes simple instructions to help plan members use our digital features and get the most from their benefits plan.
We have also created a toolkit that plan administrators can email to their plan members to walk them through the simple steps. Access the toolkit here.
And we’re available to guide plan members who may need help. They can call us at 1.800.265.4556 and select “Plan Member Web Support”. Our Client Care Centre Team is happy to help them activate these services.How we’ll communicate with plan members
We will start communicating this change to plan members in April. For plan members who aren’t taking advantage of these convenient features, we will send them an email to let them know about the change, with instructions and support on getting set up.
We will also include an insert with all mailings of paper cheques and EOB notifications sent out. And we will post an announcement and banner on EquitableHealth.ca to let plan members know about the change.
How we’ll support plan members who need extra help or accommodations
After July 1, 2023, we will follow up with plan members who have not yet activated direct deposit or email notifications for their claims and provide any extra help and support they may need. And, of course, we’ll make exceptions for plan members who aren’t willing or reasonably able to use these features.Questions?
If you have any questions, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
** Disability claimants will continue to receive paper Explanation of Benefits notifications in the mail. Some pay-direct drug claims will also continue to be paid by cheque. - [pdf] Pay Instruction Changes
- [pdf] Application for Agency Contract to Sell Insurance Products - MGA, AGA and National
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Extending Homeweb to plan members who are losing coverage
We know these are difficult times for Canadian employers and their employees.
As businesses temporarily suspend operations to help stop the spread of COVID-19, some employers have had to make the difficult decision to temporarily lay off employees or put their benefits coverage on hold.
So we are pleased to announce that Homewood Health® and Equitable Life® will extend access to Homeweb, a personalized online mental health and wellness portal, for up to 120 days for plan members who have temporarily lost their benefits coverage due to COVID-19.
Employees and their family members will continue to have access to the Homeweb website and mobile app, including:
- iVolve, Homewood’s online self-directed Cognitive Behavioural Therapy treatment tool to help manage mild to moderate anxiety and depression;
- Resources and information to support themselves and their family members through the COVID-19 pandemic;
- An interactive online Health Risk Assessment to help identify and address health risks; and
- An online library of interactive tools, assessments and 20 different e-courses that allow each user to learn at his/her own pace.
This will allow businesses undergoing financial hardship to provide some support to employees who are temporarily without benefits coverage.
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Digital tools for your clients and their plan members
In this issue:
- Digital tools for your clients and their plan members*
- QDIPC updates terms and conditions for 2024*
Digital tools for your clients and their plan members*
Do your clients know how to use all the available digital tools in their Equitable® benefits plans? With useful features for both plan administrators and their members, it’s even easier for your clients to access their plans online.Tools for plan administrators
- Our online plan member enrolment tool lets groups and administrators add new plan members online without completing paper forms
- The EquitableHealth.ca plan administrator portal makes it easy for plan administrators to manage their plan anytime and anywhere. Helpful features include:
- A premium calculator to calculate monthly costs for plan members
- A simple process for updating plan member information
- Digital welcome kits provide personalized information directly to plan members through email
- Easy, automated payment options help plan administrators avoid missed payments by offering pre-authorized debit or electronic funds transfer
Tools for plan members
- Our plan member portal at EquitableHealth.ca provides secure, 24/7 access to claims history and coverage details. It also lets members submit claims, and includes health and wellness resources
- Electronic notifications and claims payments give plan members claim updates via email and deposit payments directly into their bank account
- The Equitable EZClaim® mobile app lets plan members submit claims quickly and securely on-the-go from their mobile device
- Digital benefits cards give plan members the convenience to access their benefits cards easily from a mobile device
Help with digital benefits tools
We’ve created a brochure and video guide to help plan members use digital tools for a smoother, more convenient benefits experience.
Plan members can contact us at 1.800.265.4556 and select the option for Web Support if they need further assistance.
QDIPC updates terms and conditions for 2024*
Every year, the Quebec Drug Insurance Pooling Corporation (QDIPC) reviews the terms and conditions for the high-cost pooling system in the province.
Based on its latest review, QDIPC is revising its pooling levels and fees for 2024 to reflect trends in the volume of claims submitted to the pool, particularly catastrophic claims. These updates take effect January 1, 2024. You can view the updates here.
We will apply the new pooling levels and fees to future renewal calculations that involve Quebec plan members.
If you have any questions, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Account Executive.
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Repositioned Wealth Accumulator available
Repositioned Equimax Wealth available now
As we continue to grow to meet the needs of various market segments, our product options for your high net worth (HNW) clients have also been improved. Equimax Wealth Accumulator® has been repositioned to meet the needs of your high net worth clients by providing more deposit room and competitive early cash values.
Equimax Wealth is now repositioned for your high net worth clients
Equimax Wealth Accumulator is now targeted for clients ages 45 to 65 with an insurance need but also looking for tax advantaged growth as an alternative to traditional investments. It allows your clients to achieve both while diversifying their portfolio and saving taxes, particularly for corporations.

Highlights of the repositioned Equimax Wealth Accumulator:
- More deposit room - Allows for significantly more deposit room by reducing the initial death benefit. This means more money can be paid into the policy to promote the tax-advantaged investment growth.
- Higher early cash surrender values - We are more competitive on total cash value in years 1 to 10 in the target market ages of 45-65. The higher extra deposit room and early surrender cash value allows the illustration to show an earlier premium offset, which is key for the HNW market.
- More competitive on life pay - Improvements to life pay more notable than 20 pay. Reduced premiums for most male and female non-smokers in our target market (ages 45-65) as well as 2, 3, and 4 year improvement in illustration of premium offset.
- More competitive at older ages - A shift in the target market means you can support older clients in the HNW market. The Equimax Wealth Accumulator is now more competitive at ages 45-65.
Learn more
For full details on the transition, please see our transition rules.
For more information on this product, please visit the Equimax page on Equinet.
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A strong close to 2024 for our participating account
Equitable takes pride in its mutual structure. Our participating clients benefit from the wide range of assets we invest in. We also work to ensure these investments support and strengthen communities across Canada. Thanks to our investment team, participating clients enter 2025 with a strong long-term outlook.
The December 2024 Participating Account Asset Mix Quarterly Update has now been posted.
View the #1360 piece here.
For more information, please contact your local wholesaler.