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EAMG Market Commentary January 2024

Rates & Credit – Interest rates decreased sharply in Q4 as the market priced in aggressive interest rate cuts by central banks in 2024. The prospect of lower interest rates also drove a strong risk-on tone to the market, with the risk premium on corporate bonds grinding tighter as prospects for a “soft landing” improved. The rally in interest rates resulted in the best quarter for bonds over the past 15 years, with the FTSE Canada Universe Index returning 8.3%. Corporate bonds modestly underperformed the Universe Index with a return of 7.3%. The lower return for corporate bonds was primarily driven by the fact that the corporate bond index is less sensitive to interest rate movements (as compared to the government index), partially offset by the risk-on tone to the market. Within corporate bonds, lower-rated BBBs outperformed higher-rated A bonds. Industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications outperformed those with less exposure (notably financials and securitization), consistent with the overall shift in the yield curve.

Santa Came to Town – Moving in sync with bonds, global equities jolted higher into the end of the year with cooling inflation data and dovish comments from central bankers. The U.S. market outperformed most regions last quarter with the S&P 500 returning 11.7% in USD terms, bringing the total return in 2023 to 26.3%. The TSX added 8.1% in Q4, boosting the total annual return to 11.8%. Meanwhile, major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) gained 5.0% in local currency terms over the quarter, helping the region produce a 16.8% return from the year prior. Prospects of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the Loonie rally into year-end and resultantly, investors of Canadian dollar securities witnessed enhanced returns. Strong domestic U.S. economic data helped value pockets of the market outperform. That said, this was not a synchronized trend as China’s economic disappointment weighed on the performance of EAFE.

U.S. Fundamentals – Our work shows that investors are shifting their focus away from operating margins and towards the ability to sustain debt levels ahead of renewing debt obligations. Corporate earnings beat modest expectations last quarter, contracting by less-than-expected on a year-over-year basis. Resilient operating margins continue to attract investors into equities. After three consecutive quarters of improving forward earnings guidance, we observed that the number of major companies expecting deteriorating financial performance grew to ~35%. We note that this is a sharp contrast relative to the optimistic run-up in equity valuations. In general, corporate pessimism has been underpinned by concerns for the health of the consumer, increasing wage pressures, and inflation.

U.S. Quant Factors – While mega-cap technology stocks gave back some ground in the second half, crowding into the magnificent 7 remains noticeable with the cap weighted S&P 500 outperforming the equal weighted index by 12.5% last year. That said, value areas of the market – which underperformed through the first three quarters of the year – were top performing companies last quarter as the prospects for an economic “soft-landing” improved with U.S. inflation continuing to ease without substantial deteriorations of employment or output data. Quality-growth businesses initially outperformed as the higher-for-longer narrative continued to drive investors toward large cash-rich companies with stable margins. That said, this basket of companies gave back relative returns into quarter-end as weakness in operating margins persisted, making fundamentals appear stretched. Low volatility stocks (i.e. stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement and lower price volatility) rallied to start the quarter before dovish comments from central bankers improved risk-sentiment and ultimately pushed this basket lower on a relative basis. Lastly, dividend growth companies, which include businesses with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, underperformed the broader index as market participants punished businesses that slowed capital growth projects during the rising interest rate environment. While operating margins have declined, the basket’s strong cash flow and low debt burden may be advantageous if the market’s anticipation of impending interest rate cuts proves to be incorrect or mistimed.

Canadian Fundamentals – Although Canadian companies exceeded bleak forecasts last quarter, earnings continue to contract on a year-over-year basis. Return on equity (ROE) – a gauge of how efficiently a corporation generates profits – continued to decline last quarter while corporate costs of capital remain elevated. In essence, Canadian companies are generating less value relative to their financing cost. Value creation underpins the sustainability of dividend payments, which are a unique and desirable attribute of the Canadian market. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada held its overnight interest rate unchanged with market participants forecasting a higher probability of interest rate cuts in 2024. On the expectations of easing monetary conditions, dividend yields compressed while earnings forecasts improved with analysts predicting that index aggregate earnings will grow 6% to 8% in 2024. At a sector level, the energy industry’s financial performance normalized – in line with expectations – as weakening oil demand expectations overshadowed geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, ultimately pushing crude prices ~21% lower last quarter. The industrials and financials sectors beat expectations, helping offset softer-than-expected results from the consumer staples and technology sectors.

Canadian Quant Factors – The Canadian banks underperformed for most of the year as they reported increasing provisions for nonperforming loans, reflecting forecasts of worsening economic conditions. That said, expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024 helped tame recession fears and eased concerns of slowing loan growth, propelling banks higher in the fourth quarter as they appeared more stable and therefore favourable than prior estimates. The high-quality basket underperformed last quarter as improving risk sentiment in the market reduced the attractiveness of secure companies with lower earnings variability. Furthermore, high dividend payers with solid growth prospects outperformed in the fourth quarter as market participants rewarded companies that demonstrated a strong ability to support future dividends and punished high yielding businesses with less certain financial capabilities.

Views From the Frontline Rates – Interest rates declined sharply in Q4 as inflation continued to trend lower, fears of excess bond supply declined, and the Federal Open Market Committee signaled that the next change to their overnight policy interest rate would likely be lower. Labour market and consumer spending data remain resilient however businesses have indicated slowing across industries, more price-sensitive consumers, rising delinquencies, and concerns about the high cost of debt. Central banks remain committed to achieving their 2% inflation target and most acknowledge that interest rates have likely peaked.

Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) tightened materially over the quarter, with a strong risk on tone to the market as investors priced in lower interest rates in 2024 and a “soft-landing” to economic concerns. Corporate bond supply was well received by the market. On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, and as such, we remain cautious on corporate bonds and have a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable.

Equity – In the U.S., we allocated exposure to value names which outperformed over the quarter as the macroeconomic outlook improved on the backdrop of rate cut expectations. Looking forward, we expect that margins will continue to normalize as Covid-induced pent up demand fades. While we do not forecast margins to compress at an alarming rate, we believe sticky wage and input costs will continue to pressure businesses while consumers exhibit further exhaustion. As such, we are shifting our focus toward the balance between company reinvestment in capital projects and upcoming debt refinancing requirements. In line with this view, we favour businesses with stable cash flows and decreased debt loads as we believe they present an attractive contrarian opportunity if soft-landing projections prove to be overstated. Within Canada, we remain attentive to the inverse movements of ROE relative to financing costs over 2023. With the excess between ROE and financing costs compressing, businesses’ ability to create value appears more stretched than earlier in 2023. Therefore, we continue to favour high quality companies in Canada, which is typically defined by high ROE, stable earnings variability, and low financial leverage. Geographically, the U.S. economy appears to be in healthier condition with inflation easing while employment and output data remain stable and hence, our focus will be on capital expenditures. EAFE – which is generally more economically linked to China than North America – contains a large bucket of stable, high-quality businesses that may benefit from any upside economic surprises out of China. Lastly, through the lens of a Canadian investor, the Loonie’s relative value versus other major currencies presents another resource in our investment mandate to derive excess return.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

Individual Insurance
Short-term disability coverage for plan members in quarantine or self-isolation*
Please note: This announcement applies only to groups with short-term disability coverage through Equitable Life

With the spread of COVID-19, many people have been instructed to self-isolate or quarantine themselves or are doing so voluntarily. We realize this is a stressful situation for people and they may be wondering if they are eligible for disability benefits. Short-term disability is designed to replace a plan member’s earnings if they are unable to work due to illness and injury. As a result, only plan members who meet the following criteria are eligible for benefits:
- Plan members who have tested positive for COVID-19 and are unable to work from home are eligible for coverage from Day 1 of their self-isolation period.
- Plan members who have not been tested but have symptoms consistent with COVID-19 and are unable to work from home, are eligible for coverage. Claims will be assessed according to the terms of the plan.
Plan members who are in quarantine for any other reason, but do not have symptoms consistent with COVID-19, are not eligible for coverage. These plan members should consider applying for Employment Insurance (EI) benefits, if they do not have an option to work from home.

Submitting COVID-19-related STD claims

To make things easier for plan members who need to submit claims related to COVID-19, we will not require a physician’s statement. Instead plan members should submit our simplified Short Term Disability Plan Member COVID-19 Claim Form.

Plan Administrators need to complete their portion of the regular Short Term Disability Form (Form #421).

This is a temporary process that will remain in effect through the current coronavirus situation. We will update on changes and share them on EquitableHealth.ca.

Applying for the Employment Insurance sickness benefit

Canadians quarantined due to COVID-19, who are not receiving Short Term Disability benefits, can apply for Employment Insurance (EI) sickness benefits. The one-week waiting period for EI sickness benefits has been waived. Service Canada’s dedicated toll-free support number is 1-833-381-2725 or (TTY) 1-800-529-3742.

*Indicates content that will be shared with your clients
[pdf] Pivotal Solutions Fund Facts

Responding to Alberta's Biosimilar Initiative

Beginning March 15, 2021, we are changing coverage for some biologic drugs in Alberta in response to the province’s Biosimilar Initiative. These changes will help protect your clients from additional drug costs that may result from this new government policy while still providing access to equally safe and effective biosimilars.

What is Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative?

Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative will end provincial coverage of several originator biologic drugs for some or all conditions beginning on Jan. 15, 2021. Patients 18 and over who are using these drugs for the affected conditions will be required to switch to biosimilar versions of the drugs to maintain coverage under the province’s government drug plan.

What is the impact on private drug plans?

Industry response to Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative has the potential to significantly impact your clients’ drug plan costs. If other insurance carriers follow suit with the province and delist the originator biologics, it could expose a plan that doesn’t delist them to significant coordination of benefits risk. (See Case Study below.)

How is Equitable Life responding?

To protect your clients’ plans from paying additional and avoidable drug costs, we are changing coverage in Alberta for most biologic drugs included in the provincial initiative.

As of March 15, 2021, several originator biologic drugs will no longer be covered for plan members of all ages in Alberta. Plan members taking these biologics will be required to switch to the biosimilar versions of these drugs to maintain eligibility under their Equitable Life plan.

What drugs and conditions are affected?

The following table outlines the drugs and conditions that will be affected by this change. The list of affected drugs or conditions is dynamic and will change as Alberta includes more biologic drugs in its Biosimilar Initiative, as new biosimilars come onto the market, and as we make changes in drug eligibility.

Drug name	Originator biologic These drugs will no longer be covered in Alberta for the conditions listed in this table.	Biosimilar Plan members will need to switch to these medications to maintain coverage under their Equitable Life plan.	Affected health conditions The changes in coverage apply to these conditions.
Etanercept	Enbrel	Brenzys Erelzi	Ankylosing Spondylitis Rheumatoid Arthritis Polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) Psoriatic Arthritis Plaque Psoriasis (adults and children)
Infliximab	Remicade	Inflectra Renflexis Avsola	Ankylosing Spondylitis Plaque Psoriasis Psoriatic Arthritis Rheumatoid Arthritis Crohn's Disease (adults and children) Ulcerative Colitis (adults and children)
Insulin glargine	Lantus	Basaglar	Diabetes (Type 1 and 2)
Filgrastim	Neupogen	Grastofil Nivestym	Neutropenia
Pegfilgrastim	Neulasta	Lapelga Fulphila Ziextenzo	Neutropenia
Glatiramer*	Copaxone	Glatect TEVA-Glatiramer Acetate	Multiple Sclerosis

*Glatiramer is a non-biologic complex drug.

How will Equitable Life communicate this change to plan members?

We will be communicating with affected claimants in January 2021 to allow them ample time to change their prescriptions and avoid any interruptions in their treatment or their coverage.

Can my client maintain coverage of these biologic drugs?

Traditional groups who wish to opt out of this change and maintain coverage of these originator biologics for Alberta plan members can submit a policy amendment. Amendments must be submitted no later than January 15, 2021. Advisors with myFlex Benefits clients who wish to maintain coverage of these originator biologics for Alberta plan members should speak to their myFlex Sales Manager to confirm their eligibility to opt out of this change.

Will this change impact my clients’ rates?

The rate impact of this change in coverage will be relatively insignificant. Any cost savings associated with the change will be factored in at renewal.

If plan sponsors opt out of these changes and maintain coverage for the originator biologics, it may result in a rate increase. Any rate adjustment will be applied at renewal.

What is the difference between biologics and biosimilars?

Biologics are drugs that are engineered using living organisms like yeast and bacteria. The first version of a biologic developed is also known as the “originator” biologic. Biosimilars are also biologics. They are highly similar to the originator drug they are based on and have been shown to have no clinically meaningful differences in safety or efficacy.

Questions?

If you have any questions about this change, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.

CASE STUDY: The Alberta Biosimilar Initiative and Coordination of Benefits (CoB) risk

CoB risk is real and can be significant, even if a pharmaceutical savings program exists.

The industry response to Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative has the potential to significantly impact your clients’ drug plan costs. Some insurers may follow the province’s lead and delist these originator biologics. Others may cut back coverage to the cost of the biosimilars or maintain coverage of the originators. These differences could expose a plan that doesn’t delist the originator biologics to significant coordination of benefits risk. Here’s how:

Let’s assume there are two private drug plans – Plan A and Plan B. Both plans are open plans with no deductible. Plan A has 80% co-insurance and Plan B has 100% co-insurance.

BEFORE Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative

Before Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative, both plans cover the originator biologics listed above.

Plan A is the first private payer for an Alberta plan member taking an originator biologic drug for Rheumatoid Arthritis. Plan B is the second private payer. The cost of the originator biologic for the plan member is $30,000 annually. Here’s how the coordination of benefits would look before Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative.

AFTER Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative

In response to Alberta’s Biosimilar Initiative, the insurer for Plan A delists the originator biologic and requires plan members to switch to the biosimilar. The insurer for Plan B maintains coverage of the originator biologic. Under this scenario, if the plan member doesn’t switch, Plan B essentially becomes the first payer and sees their annual cost increase by 400% (from $6,000 to $30,000).

Even if the insurer for Plan B cuts back coverage to the cost of the biosimilar or adjusts the paid amount because they have a savings program in place with the drug manufacturer, the impact could be significant. For example, if the insurer cuts back coverage to 50% (or $15,000 annually), Plan B would see a 150% annual cost increase (from $6,000 to $15,000):

Taking the guess work out of market volatility with Equitable Life

Investing during market highs and market lows can leave even the most seasoned investors scratching their heads. Knowing when to buy and when to sell is not easy, but disciplined investing can be.

Dollar cost averaging with Equitable Life® is designed to provide a long-term investment solution. This strategy helps take the guesswork out of knowing when to get into the market. It can also provide consistency for a long-term financial plan regardless of whether there is a lot or a little to invest.

And for a limited time only, we’ve increased the initial commission for the CB5 sales option from 5.6% to 7.0% on Pivotal Select™ segregated funds*, effective from May 20 to August 31, 2022.** During this time, advisors earn the increased full initial commission even if funds are placed into Equitable Life Money Market Fund to start the PAC.

For more information on dollar cost averaging, please contact your Equitable Life Regional Investment Sales Manager .

* Applies to FundSERV trades occurring between May 20 and August 31, 2022. Initial commission on non-FundSERV trades occurring between May 20 to August 31, 2022 increases from 4% to 5%. Initial commission is subject to a chargeback.
** Equitable Life reserves the right to end the campaign at any time and without notice.

™or ® denotes a registered trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
5 great reasons to work with Equitable There are plenty of reasons to work with Equitable^®. We’ve rounded up the top 5 in our popular marketing piece 5 great reasons to make Equitable your first choice.

1. We’re committed to our policyholders.
At Equitable, our mutual status gives us the advantage of focusing exclusively on our policyholders and our commitments to them. We have a DBRS Morningstar rating of A (high) and a strong LICAT ratio. This means that we are well-positioned to continue meeting our commitments to our clients.

2. We have a broad, competitive product shelf.
We offer a diversified and competitive product portfolio, with some of the most competitive solutions on the market. Our broad range of insurance and savings products provide you with competitive, flexible solutions to meet clients’ financial needs.

3. We make underwriting easy.
Are you working on a large case? We have a specialized team of experts and dedicated underwriters to help you with larger and more complex cases.

4. We offer regional wholesaler support.
Our regional wholesalers are here to provide personalized sales support in the field, from coast-to-coast. They take the time to understand your business needs and help develop solutions.

5. We have great online advisor tools.
EquiNet^®, Equitable’s advisor site, is bilingual and mobile-friendly. It puts the tools and information you need right at your fingertips. Check out our EZcomplete^® online applications, administrative forms and processes, sales illustrations, marketing materials, and more.

Contact your Equitable wholesaler today to learn more!
5 great reasons to work with Equitable
There are plenty of reasons to work with Equitable. We’ve rounded up the top 5 in our popular marketing piece 5 great reasons to make Equitable your first choice.

1. We’re committed to our policyholders.
At Equitable, our mutual status gives us the advantage of focusing exclusively on our policyholders and our commitments to them. We have a DBRS Morningstar rating of A (high) and a strong LICAT ratio. This means that we are well-positioned to continue meeting our commitments to our clients.

2. We have a broad, competitive product shelf.
We offer a diversified and competitive product portfolio, with some of the most competitive solutions on the market. Our broad range of insurance and savings products provide you with competitive, flexible solutions to meet clients’ financial needs.

3. We make underwriting easy.
Are you working on a large case? We have a specialized team of experts and dedicated underwriters to help you with larger and more complex cases.

4. We offer regional wholesaler support.
Our regional wholesalers are here to provide personalized sales support in the field, from coast-to-coast. They take the time to understand your business needs and help develop solutions.

5. We have great online advisor tools.
EquiNet, Equitable’s advisor site, is bilingual and mobile-friendly. It puts the tools and information you need right at your fingertips. Check out our EZcomplete^® online applications, administrative forms and processes, sales illustrations, marketing materials, and more.

Contact your Equitable wholesaler today to learn more!
[pdf] Homewood Health Online
New Applications & Transaction Authorization Requirements