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Market Commentary July 2025 Key Takeaways

• Markets were very volatile in April to start Q2 but calmed as the quarter progressed. Volatility was driven mostly by headlines about tariffs, but other fiscal policy developments also had an impact.
• Equity markets sold off sharply at the start of the quarter, continuing Q1’s weakness. Markets rebounded sharply once worst-case fears over tariffs eased. The markets continued to rally through the quarter as trade negotiations progressed. Stronger-thanexpected corporate earnings also boosted markets. Despite the shaky start to the quarter, most global equity markets set new all-time highs in Q2.
• Canadian bond markets delivered slightly negative returns in Q2. Weak performance was driven by rising interest rates, which outweighed the impact of tighter credit spreads. Higher interest rates hurt the performance of longer-term bonds most.
• Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted a wait-and-see approach. They each held rates steady during Q2, awaiting greater clarity on the impacts of tariffs on both growth and inflation before considering further cuts.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: Most indicators of economic activity in the U.S. continued to expand at a decent pace. However, GDP data for the first quarter came in weaker than expected, as higher imports ahead of anticipated tariffs and weaker spending by consumers weighed on Q1 GDP. That said, GDP growth is expected to bounce back in Q2. Tariffs will likely continue to be an evolving story, with potential impacts on both economic growth and inflation. Those impacts will remain uncertain until trade agreements have been finalized.

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In early April, President Trump announced larger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs, with the impact most notable on trade with China. However, progress followed with a 90-day pause in tariff implementation. The U.S. then reached trade agreements with the UK, China, and Vietnam. Negotiations with other major trade partners are ongoing. The conflict between Israel and Iran raised inflation concerns, due mostly to the possibility of higher oil prices. Those concerns eased following a ceasefire. Congress passed Trump’s tax cut and spending bill, raising concerns about its potential impact on the U.S. fiscal burden. Meanwhile, U.S. labour market conditions remain resilient, with the unemployment rate remaining low. Inflation has eased slightly but remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. Amid heightened uncertainty, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% at both of its meetings in Q2. Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

In Canada, tariffs and trade-related uncertainty continue to weigh on the economy. A pullforward of exports and inventory accumulation ahead of tariffs helped keep first-quarter GDP firm, but growth is expected to slow in the second quarter. The labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors. Inflation remains within the Bank of Canada’s 1–3% preferred range. However, core CPI remains above the Bank’s preferred 2% target. Canada’s fiscal deficit is expected to widen as Prime Minister Mark Carney aims to fast-track infrastructure development and increase defense spending. Amid ongoing trade uncertainty, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75% during its April and June meetings. Governor Tiff Macklem signaled the Bank’s readiness to cut rates further if economic conditions deteriorate.

Fig-Two-(1).jpg

Bond Markets: During Q2, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned -0.6%. Yields for Canadian bonds rose across all maturities over the quarter. That reflected reduced expectations for rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and a higher risk premium on long-term debt. The impact of higher yields on government bonds was offset in part by tightening of credit spreads on provincial and corporate bonds. Overall corporate bonds saw a positive return for the quarter and outperformed government bonds, in part due to the strong recovery in credit spreads that started in late
April. While corporate issuance slowed considerably in April due to increased trade policy uncertainty, issuance in the Canadian bond markets during May and June were robust. There were 83 deals during Q2 that combined to raise $37 billion for issuers. June 2025 was the 3rd busiest month for issuance on record. We continue to expect higher credit spreads as the U.S. tariffs impact global growth. As such, we have maintained our conservative view with a bias towards shorter corporate bonds but remain ready to invest in longer corporate bonds as valuations become
attractive.

Stock Markets – Overview: Having done a round-trip following April tariff announcements, technology, consumer discretionary and industrial companies propelled the U.S. equity market to another record high. The S&P 500 ended the quarter up about 11%, outperforming Canadian and international markets. Canadian equities gained 8.5% in Q2, buoyed by front-loaded demand that benefited the Materials sector, while Financials recovered from a poor Q1. Meanwhile, as risk sentiment stabilized following the 90-day tariff pause and U.S. equities regained momentum, the appeal of the “Sell America” trade diminished. As a result, Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) markets finished the quarter with a more modest gain of just over 5%, lagging the sharper
recovery seen in North America.

Fig-Four-(1).jpg

U.S. Equities: The U.S. equity market staged a V-shaped recovery on strong company earnings data in the second quarter. A stable job market and muted inflation reinforced the view of a resilient U.S. economy. At a company level, we observed positive corporate earnings surprises, steady profit margins and better-than-expected forward earnings guidance. Together they underpinned the equity market’s sharp reversal to the upside. Market breadth also improved over the quarter, with strength extending beyond Technology to include Industrials and Financials. That signalled that the market rally was supported by investors’ confidence in the U.S. economy. Furthermore, structural investment trends in artificial intelligence (AI) continued to accelerate, highlighted by rising enterprise capex in data centres. Beyond AI, Circle, a blockchain-based platform that supports stablecoin issuance, tokenized assets, and digital payment infrastructure, conducted a successful IPO. Its share price jumped 485% from its listing price as of quarter-end. On June 17, the U.S. Senate passed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, a regulatory framework for use of tokenized assets. While investors wait for the House’s decision, equity price actions suggest that the policy environment is increasingly supportive of blockchain innovation and digital efficiency.

Canadian Equities: Canadian equities posted solid gains in Q2, with Financials overtaking Materials to lead the market higher. Momentum from the Materials sector, which benefited from the pull-forward demand related to U.S. tariff uncertainty, faded toward quarter-end. Meanwhile, cooling inflation and muted domestic growth pushed investors towards highquality, high-dividend-paying companies. Notably, banks significantly outperformed the broader market, as investors favoured their stable corporate fundamentals. Energy surged briefly amid escalating geopolitical tensions, but those gains proved short-lived. In recap, investors in the Canadian market faced slowing resource demand and a stalling domestic economy, which fueled increased interest in high-quality, high-dividend-paying companies. That is a trend we expect to continue going forward.

Bottom line: Markets remain heavily influenced by sentiment, with U.S. policy developments and ongoing tariff negotiations continuing to cause periodic volatility. However, there is little
evidence of deterioration in the hard data to date. As such, we continue to anchor our positioning on underlying data rather than market narratives. Looking ahead, the combination of a structurally higher-for-longer interest rate environment and increasingly pro-growth policy backdrop presents selective opportunities. In the U.S., this favours highquality growth stocks, particularly within Technology, where strong balance sheets and long-term thematic tailwinds remain intact. In Canada, Financials, especially the relatively inexpensive banks, present a more compelling opportunity as earlier tailwinds from pullforward demand are beginning to wane. While we remain constructive, we are mindful of elevated equity valuations and continue to closely monitor macro conditions and policy developments for signs of inflection.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Investments	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Investments	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Public Investments	Jin Li Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM Sr. Quantitative Analyst	Andrew Vermeer, CFA Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Edward Ng Cheng Hi Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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Market Comments - October 2024

Key Takeaways for Q3

· Central banks eased monetary policy by reducing their target interest rates.
· Bond markets performed very well during the quarter as interest rates fell.
· Risk markets experienced some volatility, but stock markets had robust returns.
· Canadian stocks outperformed U.S. stocks in Q3, while the sources of returns in the U.S. market were more balanced and diversified than in the first half of the year.

Views From the Frontline

Bond Markets: During the third quarter, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. moved significantly lower as markets anticipated that the Bank of Canada would continue – and the Federal Reserve would start – cutting rates. Additionally, the expectation became that the central banks would end up lowering rates more aggressively than previously assumed. That’s because inflation data has softened sufficiently to give the central banks the scope to ease policy, and other economic data, especially from the labour market, indicated the need for them to ease policy in order to prevent economic activity from cooling too much. For instance, in Canada, inflation slowed to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, while the labour market showed warning signs with the unemployment rate rising to 6.6%. The Bank of Canada cut its target interest rate by 0.25% at each of its July and September meetings. Governor Macklem indicated that if growth does not materialize as expected, “it could be appropriate to move faster on interest rates”. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve kicked off its easing cycle by cutting its target rate by 0.50% in September. The growing signs of a cooling labour market amidst slowing inflation motivated the larger-than-typical move. That said, consumer spending in the U.S. continued to be strong, and GDP is still tracking a healthy growth rate.

While interest rates fell, bonds returns were also boosted by solid behaviour of corporate bonds. Credit spreads (i.e. the risk premium for corporate bonds versus government bonds) continued to grind lower over the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels that are largely consistent with the tight post-pandemic levels experienced in 2021. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to be very robust, with $29B (billion) in new issuance during the quarter, resulting in an impressive $119B issued year-to-date, a new record. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.

Stock Markets: In the U.S., we continue to caution against heavily concentrated sources of market returns and emphasize a diversified portfolio. Last quarter, diversification proved essential as a multitude of factors heightened market volatility. These factors – which included the unwind of the yen carry trade, investor reactions to mixed mega-cap earnings, and concerns of a slowing labour market – drove investors away from mega-cap technology names and into defensive areas of the market. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates by 0.5%, sources of investment returns continued to broaden as investors rotated into economically-sensitive baskets. Underpinned by decelerating inflation and easing monetary policy, we believe the rotation away from the mega-cap tech names is likely to persist and we continue to emphasize portfolio diversification. In Canada, high-quality, high-yielding businesses – composed of the financial sector and non-financial dividend payers – outperformed over the quarter as investors rewarded companies that demonstrated a strong ability to sustain dividends, as well as greater efficiency generating profits. While we continue to favour these businesses, we have taken profit on our financial sector dividend exposure after a sharp reversion in the premium between value creation and current yield. In addition, Chinese officials introduced a wave of stimulus to revitalize growth, bringing life back to the metals and luxury goods sectors. Accordingly, Canadian and European equities have benefitted recently.

Market Update

Rates & Credit: In Q3, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. decreased significantly, with front-end interest rates declining faster than long-end interest rates amid cooling inflation and a weakening labour market. As a result, the FTSE Canada Universe Index posted a positive return of 4.7%. Coincidentally, Canadian corporate bonds and government bonds each also generated returns of 4.7%, totally in-line with the Universe index. On the other hand, despite short-term interest rates falling much more than long-term interest rates, the higher price sensitivity of long-dated bonds had them outperform shorter-dated bonds, with the Long-Term bond index up 5.8% while the Short-Term bond index gained 3.4%. Similarly, within corporate bonds, industries that have longer-dated debt (e.g. energy and infrastructure) outperformed those that tend to have shorter-dated debt (e.g. real estate and financials).

Equity Overview: Underpinned by decelerating inflation data and easing monetary policy – including the outsize 50-basis cut from the Federal Reserve – prospects for an economic soft landing increased over the quarter. That favourable outlook spurred global equity markets to all-time highs, with previously lagging areas of the market narrowing the performance gap compared to the U.S. mega-cap technology names that had led returns in the first half of the year. Canadian equities outperformed their U.S. counterpart last quarter, rising 10.5% as strength in the banking and materials sectors pushed the index higher. Major developed markets from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) were more subdued, gaining 0.9% (in local currency terms) last quarter. That said, grand expectations for further interest rate cuts in the U.S. pushed the greenback to its lowest level in over a year, boosting EAFE returns to over 7% in U.S. dollar terms. Within the U.S., sources of market returns broadened as well, with investors rotating out of concentrated AI companies and into more economically sensitive businesses.

U.S. Fundamentals: Outside of the Magnificent 7, investors are interpreting downside earnings surprises as a normalization of financial performance rather than a deterioration. For example, McDonald’s share price rallied over 17% into quarter-end following its earnings release despite announcing declining sales and contracting earnings per share. Within the AI-ecosystem, investors are beginning to look for opportunities beyond chip manufacturers, such as nuclear energy providers. At an index level, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000 index, excluding the Mag-7, posted a median earnings growth of nearly 9% year-over-year, expanding from the ~6% witnessed in Q2. Furthermore, the number of companies from this group reporting positive earnings growth grew to approximately 67%, up from 60% in the prior quarter. In our view, the ongoing broadening of earnings strength outside of the Mag-7 can provide tailwinds to current market rotations into previously left-behind companies. Within the mega-cap tech space, investors have become more discriminant than in prior quarters, rewarding businesses with greater success monetizing their AI-investments. This trend was evident through the divergence of returns from IBM and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) following their quarterly earnings.

U.S. Quant Factors: Decelerating U.S. inflation data prompted a rotation out of highly concentrated areas of the market (growth) and into more economically-sensitive companies (value). Then, concerns of a slowing U.S. labour market and the unwind of the yen carry trade increased market volatility, leading investors to shelter their positions by reallocating to low volatility. As the quarter progressed, expectations of easing monetary policy and stabilizing employment data helped calm return to the market and the rotation from mega-cap tech sector resumed, albeit at a lesser pace. Notably, this “catch-up” trade also benefitted dividend-paying companies, particularly those with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, as investors favoured those more mature operations.

Canadian Fundamentals: Investors returned to the Canadian market after Canadian companies showed signs of recovery last quarter with earnings expanding by more than expected. With inflation showing clearer signs of deceleration and the outlook regarding the path of monetary policy increasingly implying lower interest rates going forward, investors are allocating toward high-quality, dividend-paying companies. From a sector level, surging gold prices provided a tailwind for Canadian miners, helping the materials sector outperform over the quarter. More recently, the materials sector has benefitted from elevated base metal prices following the arrival of Chinese stimulus. In contrast, oil prices declined over 16% last quarter as fears of an oversupplied market swelled following speculation that OPEC+ would look to dial back production cuts. As a result, investors looked past lingering geopolitical risks and the energy sector underperformed.

Canadian Quant Factors: Amid an improving Canadian macroeconomic backdrop and clearer outlook on the trajectory of monetary policy, dividend-yielding businesses became sought after. More specifically, investors continued to emphasize dividend sustainability last quarter, rewarding dividend-paying businesses that demonstrated strong financial performance and the ability to support future payouts. For example, the major Canadian banks sharply outperformed in Q3 after reporting earnings growth that mostly exceeded expectations. In essence, investors have become more constructive on this high-yielding group as their ability to create value relative to financing costs improves.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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EAMG Market Commentary October 2023

October 20, 2023

Rates & Credit - Interest rates increased steadily in Q3 against the backdrop of sticky inflation, strong economic growth, and a tight labour market. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index during the quarter, with a loss of 2.2%, versus a loss of 4.4% for government bonds and a loss of 3.9% for the overall index. The outperformance was primarily driven by the fact that the corporate bond index is less sensitive to interest rates movements (as compared to the government index), all else being equal. The outperformance was also driven by an improvement in risk-appetite, with lower-rated BBBs slightly outperforming higher-rated A bonds. Industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications underperformed those with less (notably financials and securitization), consistent with the overall shift in the yield curve.

Equities Lose Traction – Global equity markets lost momentum last quarter with the TSX declining 2.2% while major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) fell 1.3% in local currency terms. U.S. equity markets, while falling approximately 3.3%, were cushioned by a strong greenback, with the index declining only 1% in Canadian dollar terms. With inflation prints continuing to be stubbornly high and employment data remaining strong, central bankers emphasized their commitment to a higher-for-longer approach to monetary policy. The hawkish tones out of the Federal Reserve pushed bond yields higher and consequently, pressured equities lower. Furthermore, mixed economic data out of China rattled investor sentiment over the quarter as global growth forecasts came under scrutiny.

U.S. Fundamentals – Although U.S. earnings continue to contract on a year-over-year basis, companies surpassed expectations with investors remaining highly focused on signs of deteriorating operating margins. After bouncing off Q1 2022 lows, forward earnings guidance continues to improve on a quarterly basis. Based on our analysis, ~35% of major companies revised earnings forecasts higher (+2% versus Q2) while ~33% held expectations constant, with the balance expecting deteriorating financial performance. Overall, improved efficiencies through cost-cutting measures and stronger-than-expected pricing power have contributed to resilience in operating margins, and therefore renewed optimism about forecasted financial performance.

Equal Weight S&P 500 versus S&P 500 – Persistent crowding into mega-cap technology stocks – which has driven the majority of market returns year-to-date in the U.S. – slowed at the beginning of the summer before reaccelerating into quarter end. The persistence of this trend has resulted in the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 index returning a mere 1.8% over the first three quarters of the year, markedly lower than the 13.1% return observed from the S&P 500. We continue to emphasize that a crowded market surge is not uncommon during late stages of the economic cycle, and we remain focused on delivering optimal risk-adjusted returns with quantitative factors.

U.S. Quant Factors – The quality-growth areas of the market continued to outperform last quarter with market participants seeking large cash-rich companies with innovative product offerings and stable operating margins. That said, the pricing power of these companies has weakened more recently with consumers having depleted pandemic-era savings and stimulus. As such, fundamentals are beginning to appear overvalued. Low volatility stocks (i.e. stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement and lower price volatility) performed in-line with the overall market for most of the summer before underperforming into quarter-end when crowding into big-tech returned. While top-line projections are forecasted to post stable growth, the basket’s relatively lower operating margins remain a headwind amid surging interest rates. Dividend growth companies, which include businesses with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, performed approximately in-line with the broader index over the quarter. With the market forecasting overly-negative fundamental performance, this factor is positioned as a contrarian opportunity in the market.

Canadian Fundamentals – Unlike those in the U.S., Canadian companies reported shrinking operating margins in general, pressuring equity pricing. Like in the U.S., Canadian corporate earnings were mostly consistent with expectations but continue to contract on a year-over-year basis. The energy sector benefitted from a ~30% increase in oil prices during the quarter, as OPEC’s restrictive oil production schedule pushed crude markets deeper into under-supplied territory. Those higher energy prices buoyed performance of stocks in the energy sector, one of only two sectors with positive performance during the quarter, helping partially offset softer-than-expected results out of the financials and communications sectors. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada continued with its hawkish monetary policy by raising its overnight interest rate by another 25 basis points, bringing it to 5%. Their efforts to slow economic growth are beginning to cause some deterioration in fundamentals and, with one quarter remaining, analysts are expecting Canadian earnings to contract ~9% for the year.

Canadian Quant Factors – With central banks around the world continuing to hike interest rates and uncertainty surrounding China’s economic health, global growth prospects fluttered over the quarter. The cyclical nature of the Canadian market, and therefore its reliance on global partners, saw equity prices put under pressure by growth concerns. As a result, the quality bucket benefitted from defensive positioning by investors and thus resumed its climb in Canada. Investors continue to prefer mature, large businesses that are better positioned in a restrictive economic environment due to their more stable operating margins. The value factor – which was beaten down in Q2 – rebounded last quarter with supply-driven energy strength helping to propel energy stocks higher. Low volatility initially displayed similar performance to the TSX, but energy’s rapid surge into the end of summer pressured the group lower. Given higher risk-free rates, the dividend factor also underperformed over the quarter, with dividend yields becoming less attractive on risk adjusted basis.

Views From the Frontline

Rates – Both nominal and real – rose sharply in Q3 to levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. A healthy labour market, strong consumer spending, persistent inflation and excess supply concerns drove the interest rate increase. Although the economy is starting to witness a deceleration in consumer spending and tighter credit conditions, central banks remain committed to maintaining a higher policy rate for longer to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) has been range-
bound over the past quarter as investors’ evaluations of a variety of scenarios have evolved: soft-landing versus a recession, geopolitical uncertainty, further central bank increases, among other things. On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, and as such, we remain cautious on corporate bonds and have a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable.

Equities – Geographically, we began the quarter with a preference for U.S. equities relative to Canada and EAFE. In-line with our expectations, U.S. stocks outperformed the two regions in Canadian dollar terms. That said, weakness in the Euro versus the Canadian dollar was a headwind for our EAFE exposure. With earnings yield – which is the percentage of earnings relative to price – becoming less attractive compared to risk-free rates in the U.S., and the greenback strength becoming overstretched from a technical perspective, we have pared back our overweight U.S. position. Moreover, with Chinese officials focusing efforts on the introduction of new stimulus packages, we believe that more cyclical markets like Canada and EAFE will retrace some of their losses in the near term. Within the U.S., we entered Q3 with a constructive view on high quality growth segments of the market that provide strong operating margins during the current late economic cycle conditions. The factor moved in-line with our expectations, as highlighted in the “U.S. Quant Factor” section, and we are tactically decreasing our exposure amid stretched fundamentals. In Canada, we continue to prefer high-quality companies due to their strong fundamentals, with the group currently displaying momentum versus the broader TSX. Tactically, we are participating in the oil supply shock through the value factor.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Mohamed Bouhadi, CFA Senior Analyst, Rates	Tyler Farrow Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

Posted November 3, 2023

Market Commentary January 2025

Key Takeaways

Full year 2024:

Despite reductions of policy-setting interest rates by central banks, yields on longer-term bonds finished the year higher than they started the year.
Positive risk appetite helped corporate bonds perform well, led by lower-quality issuers.
Global equity markets posted robust returns, with U.S. equities outperforming other developed markets, driven by heavy concentration into the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks.

Fourth Quarter:

Central banks continued to ease monetary policy in Q4, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy interest rate more aggressively than did the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The Republican victory across both the executive and legislative branches in the U.S. ignited expectations of economic growth, pushing bond yields and stock prices higher.
Risk sentiment helped corporate bonds continue to outperform government bonds.
Markets remained volatile: while North American stock markets continued to outperform most international indices, Canadian stocks managed to outperform U.S. stocks in Q4, as sources of returns in the U.S. narrowed into year-end.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace in Q4. The rate of inflation continued to slow but remained above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, as the unemployment rate has remained low compared to historical norms. A decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party further boosted expectations for continued growth. The return of the President-elect’s old tactics of threatening tariffs to influence trade, security, and drug control re-introduced some economic uncertainty, particularly regarding the potential return of inflationary pressures. Those concerns prompted the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its policy easing, as it lowered rates by just 0.25% at each of its two meetings in Q4, following the 0.50% cut in September. Throughout 2024, the Fed reduced rates by a total of 100 basis points, from 5.50% to 4.50%. Nonetheless, bond yields were significantly higher for most maturity terms during the fourth quarter as the market priced in not just a stronger economy than had been the expectation during Q3, implying less interest rate cuts by the Fed, but also growing concerns about the government deficit.

In Canada, growth remained positive during 2024 and improved a bit to close the year, but continued to fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations. Similarly, inflation came in lower than expected and below the Bank’s 2% target. The labour market continued to soften for much of the year, with employment growth falling short of labour force growth. The weakness in the labour market and economy, along with tamed inflation, prompted the Central Bank to cut rates at the pace of 50 basis points at each of its two meetings in Q4. For the full year, the Bank of Canada ended up lowering its policy rate by a total of 175 basis points, from 5% to 3.25%. The market has been expecting the Bank of Canada to need to continue cutting rates due to slower economic growth in Canada, but the fear of a possible trade war with the U.S. has made the economic outlook somewhat murkier.

Bond Markets: During the quarter, yields on mid- to long-term bonds in Canada rose in sympathy with rising bond yields in the U.S. However, bond yields in Canada rose to a lesser extent, and yields on shorter-term bonds were actually little changed over the quarter. The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was basically flat during Q4 and posted a return of 4.2% for the full year. Although interest rates rose, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to grind lower, helping corporate bonds post positive overall returns in the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels similar to those experienced in 2021, when markets did quite well after the pandemic. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continued to be very robust in the quarter, with $30 billion in new issuance, resulting in a record-breaking year with $141 billion of new issuance in 2024. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.

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Stock Markets – Overview: Trump’s presidential victory and the Republican party’s ‘red sweep’ in the Senate and House of Representatives sparked optimism surrounding economic growth and a new era of U.S. exceptionalism. As a result, North American equity markets extended their rally in Q4, capping off a year of robust returns. The S&P 500 returned 2.4%, bringing its year-to-date return to 25%. Within the U.S., the broadening of returns paused during the quarter as the chase for growth intensified, with mega-cap growth names like Tesla driving performance. Canadian equities surprisingly outperformed the U.S. market over the quarter, returning 3.8% in Q4, despite threats of widespread tariff negotiations looming on the horizon that could negatively impact Canadian corporate fundamentals. At a sector level, strength in the technology, financials, and energy sectors more than offset weakness in telecommunication companies as well as in the materials sector. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) underperformed last quarter as deteriorating Chinese growth prospects and weak economic growth in the Eurozone weighed on equities. Notably, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities benefitted from a rebounding U.S. dollar with the dollar index adding over 7.6% in Q4.

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U.S. Equities: U.S. equities remain supported by resilient margins and strong corporate earnings growth with over 70% of businesses surpassing bottom-line expectations last quarter. We remain attentive to the broadening of earnings performance and note that this trend has continued, albeit at a normalized pace versus prior quarters. More specifically, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000, excluding the Magnificent 7, posted median earnings growth of 6% last quarter, down from nearly 9% in Q3 but comparable to Q2 (6%). Looking forward to 2025, analysts continue to forecast U.S. exceptionalism, with forecasts of ~12% earnings growth.

Following Trump’s presidential victory, stocks with greater sensitivity to the U.S. economy, such as small cap businesses, benefitted from expectations of domestically focused growth initiatives. However, stubborn inflation and expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the trend of broadening sources of returns pause into the end of the year. Instead, market concentration reaccelerated with investors rushing back towards mega-cap growth stocks. In fact, Tesla – which is approximately 2% of the S&P 500 Index by market cap – contributed approximately one-third of the total index return in Q4, while the Mag 7 as a group contributed over 100% of total returns. In other words, U.S. large cap companies excluding the Magnificent 7 declined in aggregate last quarter.

Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of cooling inflation and below-trend growth, the Bank of Canada continued to loosen monetary policy. As a result, Canadian companies
showed signs of improving efficiency with return on equity – a gauge of corporate profitability – improving versus prior quarters. Under these conditions, investors remained focused on higher quality, high-dividend paying companies – particularly within the financial sector. Relative to prior quarters, this group witnessed greater contribution out of non-bank financials (such as asset managers and insurance companies), as the premium investors were willing to pay for Canadian banks remained elevated. Across other sectors, the energy sector had a positive quarter as the price of oil stabilized, but falling prices for raw industrials pushed the materials sector lower.

Bottom line: U.S. political developments and subsequent growth expectations dominated market sentiment last quarter. As a result, investors dialed back rate cut expectations and bond yields moved higher. In equity markets, the potential for an era of higher-for-longer rates prompted a resumption of investors crowding into growth stocks. Going forward, we remain cautious of elevated valuations and continue to prioritize diversified sources of returns with a long-term outlook. Nonetheless, despite rich valuations, our base case remains that investors’ enthusiasm for equities will persist in the near-term and stocks should continue to outperform bonds.

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Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

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