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EAMG - Macro Tear Sheet – Recent Market Volatility Summary
By separating the noise from the signals, we believe the rotation away from the mega-cap technology names is likely to continue. Recent market volatility, triggered by a multitude of factors that include the unwind of the carry trade, investor reactions to mixed mega-cap earnings, and U.S. economic data, may present more investment opportunities for long-term outperformance. Recall over the past year that the majority of U.S. stock market performance came from a limited number of mega-cap technology companies and, in our view, moving forward it will be prudent to analyze the source of returns as rapid market rotations may punish overly-concentrated portfolios.
Inflation Slows (July 11) – Headline U.S. inflation readings increased 3.0% year-over-year in June, decelerating from May (3.3%). With prices slowing ahead of forecasts but economic growth remaining strong, investors became more confident regarding the prospects of an economic soft landing.
Outcome: market strength broadened with traders rotating out of highly concentrated areas of the market (“Fabulous 5”) and into more economically sensitive stocks that had been left behind.
• Big Tech Earnings (July 23 – Aug 1) – High profile mega-cap technology companies – including many members of the Magnificent 7 – reported earnings growth that generally surpassed expectations as margins remained healthy. That said, investors were more focused on spending towards AI-initiatives, rewarding businesses with greater success translating their AI investments into higher sales.
Outcome: this trend is evident through the divergence of returns from IBM and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) after releasing their quarterly earnings. The limited number of companies that contributed to the returns of the S&P 500 failed to impress investors, extending the rotation into other areas of the market.
• Caution is Brewing – Following a strong rally of economically sensitive pockets of the market, notably a breakout of returns from U.S. small cap companies, the low volatility factor, which tends to outperform during times of stress, moved in sync with the small caps’ strength.
Outcome: with a lack of fundamental justification supporting small cap performance, markets showed signs of caution.
• Central Bank Decisions (July 31)– The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged during its July meeting, in line with market expectations, reiterating committee members’ need for greater confidence that inflation would continue to subside. That said, policymakers signaled a reduction in policy rates could be a possibility in the coming meetings. In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased its key interest rate while also announcing plans to scale back bond purchases – restrictive monetary policy maneuvers aimed at backstopping the depreciating Japanese currency.
Outcome: the bifurcation between the BoJ and most other major central banks sparked a sharp appreciation of the yen and a rapid unwind of the yen carry trade (see below for explanation).
• Growth Scare (August 2)– In early August, a downside surprise in U.S. nonfarm payrolls (114k actual versus 175k expected) and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, higher than the 4.1% that was expected and up from 3.5% a year ago triggered concerns of a cooling labor market.
Outcome: speculation swelled surrounding the pace of rate cuts with market participants expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates as much as 125bps over the next 3 policy meetings, up from 50-75bps as of the end of July. Against this backdrop, the ongoing unwind of the yen carry trade accelerated.
Yen Carry Trade Explained
• Simply put, investors have been borrowing Japanese yen – a low yielding currency – to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets. The primary risks in a carry trade can include the uncertainty of foreign exchange rates (if unhedged), as well as changes to expectations of the underlying yields, among other risks. Over the last 2 decades, the BoJ has implemented an ultra-low interest rate monetary policy to combat deflation and stimulate growth. Furthermore, investors were emboldened by the Japanese yen’s ~53% depreciation versus the U.S. dollar over the last 10 years. With the BoJ hiking its key interest rate while also announcing plans to scale back bond purchases, the yen rallied abruptly. Consequently, highly leveraged investors have had to exit their long positions in riskier assets to repay their borrowed yen exposure.
Peak Carry Trade Unwind – Buying Opportunity
• Peak carry trade unwind, which implies heightened panic levels, has historically created an attractive buying environment. That said, we are focused on companies that have demonstrated robust earnings growth and healthy leverage. Given the unprecedented level of market concentration over the last year, we view the unwind of the carry trade as another catalyst for investors to rotate out of the “Fabulous 5”.
Our Findings:
We found that the peak unwind of the carry trade may be a buying opportunity. At present, the current level of the unwind is similar to many notable market bottoms, including the Great Financial Crisis (2008), the European debt crisis (2010), the oil crash (2014), the subsequent emerging market crisis (2015), the Covid-19 crash (2020), and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (2023). We assessed the degree of the unwind by looking at the one-month implied volatility between three currency pairs, U.S. Dollar/Yen, Australian Dollar/Yen, and Euro/Yen. Implied volatility is a measure of the expected future volatility of the underlying assets over a given time period. Amid strong earnings growth and steady margins from quality businesses within the U.S. market, the fundamental backdrop suggests that businesses outside the concentrated AI-darlings may drive the next leg of market returns.
Downloadable Copy
Mark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public Portfolio ManagementIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public Portfolio ManagementJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Portfolio ManagementJin Li
Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA
Senior Analyst, Equity
Andrew Vermeer
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
Francie Chen
Analyst, Rates
ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. - [pdf] EquiNet Quick Tips
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin – May 2021
In this issue:
- Graduating dependents losing coverage?*
- New Brunswick expands the use of biosimilars*
- Proposed changes to federal recovery and EI benefits*
- Removal of plan administrator access to update plan member banking*
- BioScript recognized as one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies*
Graduating dependents losing coverage?
Let plan members know about Coverage2go
As we reach the end of spring, some of your clients’ plan members may have dependents who are graduating from university or college and will no longer be eligible for coverage under the benefits plan.
Fortunately, we offer Coverage2go®. It allows individuals who are losing their group coverage to purchase personal month-to-month health and dental coverage that is affordable, reliable and works like their previous group benefits plan. They can choose the level of coverage and protection that suits their personal situation.
There are no medical questions – they simply need to apply within 60 days of losing their health coverage under their group benefits plan.*
Help your plan members and their dependents who are losing coverage by letting them know about Coverage2go. They can visit our website to learn more about Coverage2go and to get a quote.
*Quebec residents are not eligible for Coverage2goNew Brunswick expands the use of biosimilars
The New Brunswick government recently announced that it will be implementing a biosimilar transition program.
Patients using originator biologic drugs for diseases such as inflammatory arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, diabetes and psoriasis, will have until November 30, 2021 to switch to the biosimilar version of their medications in order to maintain coverage under the province’s public drug plans. This process will be completed in consultation with the patients’ physicians.
Biosimilars are highly similar to the drugs they are based on and Health Canada considers them to be equally safe and effective for approved conditions.
Equitable Life® actively monitors and investigates all biosimilar policy changes and the ongoing evolution of biosimilar drugs entering Canada. We will keep you informed of any impact on private drug plans and how we are responding.Proposed changes to federal recovery and EI benefits
In its recent 2021 budget, the federal government proposed a variety of changes to its benefit programs.
The proposed changes include providing up to 12 additional weeks of the Canada Recovery Benefit to a maximum of 50 weeks. The first 12 weeks of this benefit would be paid at $500 per week and the remaining eight weeks at $300 per week.
Multiple changes have also been proposed to make Employment Insurance (EI) more accessible to Canadians. The changes include: maintaining uniform access to EI benefits across all regions, supporting multiple job holders and those who switch jobs by ensuring that all insurable hours and employment count towards their eligibility, and simplifying many rules around EI to ensure Canadians can receive benefits sooner. It has also been proposed that the regular EI benefits be extended to no later than November 20, 2021, if needed.
We are analyzing the impact these changes may have to disability benefits. We will provide more details later in the year.Removal of plan administrator access to update plan member banking
In early June, plan administrators will no longer be able to update banking information for their plan members on EquitableHealth.ca after their initial enrolment. This change has been made to allow plan members to have full control over where they want their claim payments deposited.
Plan members can update their banking information online through their plan member web portal or through the EZClaim mobile app. They will continue to be notified via email if and when they make any changes.BioScript Solutions recognized as one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies
Congratulations to our partner, BioScript Solutions, for being recognized as one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies of 2021 by Deloitte.
We have partnered with BioScript since 2016 for our Specialty Drug Preferred Pharmacy Network (PPN). This partnership offers cost savings while providing comprehensive, best-in-class patient care.
BioScript is one of Canada’s leading specialty pharmacies and recently celebrated its 20th anniversary.
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