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Insights from a pandemic: Drug trends during COVID-19
We were expecting drug costs to rise this year due to the increase in “specialty” drugs, the shift to more expensive treatments for common conditions, and the introduction of new, costly medications. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused drug costs to rise even more than expected. While this was partly due to increased claims for certain drug categories, the most significant factor was the increase in dispensing fees as the provinces imposed 30-day refill limits.
Costs and claimants surge, drop, then climb again
Initially, as COVID-19 started to spread, we saw an overall spike in the volume and paid amounts for drug claims in March as plan members rushed to stock up on their medications. On our block, the average amount paid per certificate increased 16% in March, compared with the previous year.
This spike was followed by a drop in April after most provinces put 30-day refill limits in place. This led to a decrease in both average paid amounts and quantity per claim as people were limited to smaller refills. But the dispensing fee portion of drug cost tripled for many plan members who had to refill their prescriptions every month instead of every 90 days.
The April plunge was short-lived. Drug claims started to climb again in May as some provinces removed their 30-day refill limits. We’ve seen a continued increase so far in June as all remaining provinces have lifted their 30-day limits.
Claims for “specialty” drugs increase
There were some notable exceptions to this trend. For example, both claimants and paid amounts for high-cost “specialty” drugs increased in March, April and May. Thirty-day refills are the norm for these drugs, so they weren’t impacted by the re-fill limits.
Claims for asthma drugs had the largest surge of any common disease category in March but had no subsequent drop in April. Not surprisingly, claims for mental health drugs increased throughout the pandemic, including a 33% increase in the number of claimants in May.
Going forward, we should see the average quantity per prescription stabilize in future months and return to normal, provided pharmacies return most patients to refills of more than 30 days.
The full impact of COVID-19 remains to be determined. We will continue to provide timely updates on any developments that impact our clients and their plan members or their benefits coverage. In the meantime, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager if you have questions.
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Insights from a pandemic: Long-term COVID-19 drug risks
For the remainder of 2020 and beyond, COVID-19 will continue to add to the existing pressures driving up drug costs. Examples of contributing factors include:
- Claims for acute drugs will likely increase as elective surgeries resume and plan members address non-emergency health issues that were left unattended during COVID-19.
- Plan members whose employers are facing financial strain due to COVID-19 may stock up on their prescriptions in anticipation of losing their job and/or their benefits.
- An ongoing increase in the prevalence and severity of mental health issues and chronic conditions. In May and June, we saw a dramatic increase in the number of claimants for depression, ulcers, blood pressure and diabetes, and depression was associated with 1 in 5 claimants.
All trends thus far suggest we can expect about a 10% increase in average paid amounts per certificate in 2020 compared with 2019. But the impact won’t be the same for all groups. There will be significant variations, particularly for smaller groups, and some may see much larger cost increases.
Unknown COVID-19-related risks
Another risk exposure may come from the costs associated with drugs used to treat or prevent COVID-19. There are currently numerous vaccines in development, and more than 300 clinical trials are underway for both new and existing drugs to determine their effectiveness in treating the virus.
The cost of any vaccine or whether government or private plans will pay for it is unknown. Regardless, there will likely be other drugs indicated for the treatment or prevention of COVID-19 that private plans will be expected to cover. The cost of this impact for private payers is unknown, but potentially high.
Another unknown is what will happen with dispensing fees. While most provinces have lifted their 30-day prescription refill limits, it remains to be seen whether pharmacies will resume dispensing 60- and 90-day refills at pre-COVID levels for private plans. If not, this would mean the dispensing fees will continue to drive up drug costs.
Advisor opportunity
Despite the increase in drug plan risk in recent years, little has changed in plan design trends. Very few plan sponsors have adopted managed plans or other plan design options that could help manage risk.
This presents an opportunity for advisors to educate their clients about the risks their drug plan may be exposed to and the options available to manage that risk.
A practical starting point for those conversations is our Drug Plan Design Tool. With two simple questions, it can help confirm your client’s objectives and identify some best-fit solutions for their plan. Ask your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager for a copy of the tool.