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Market Commentary January 2026

Key Takeaways

Full year 2025:
• Government policy was very impactful for markets in 2025. U.S. trade policy unsettled markets in the first half of the year, as the U.S. implemented significant tariffs and engaged in tough negotiations with major trading partners. However, by mid-year, fiscal policy provided positive support for markets, particularly with the passing in the U.S. of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July.
• Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) continued to attract investment, particularly in the United States. This investment provided strong support for equity market performance.
• Global equity markets delivered strong performance, most notably Canadian equities, which returned an impressive 31.7%.
• Positive risk appetite supported solid corporate bond performance, which outpaced government bonds.

Fourth Quarter:
• U.S. equities advanced at a slower pace in the fourth quarter after a strong surge in the prior two quarters. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities, fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors.
• Canadian bond markets posted slightly negative returns during the quarter as higher interest rates weighed on performance. Strong corporate bond performance partially offset weakness in government bonds.
• Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered policy interest rates during the quarter, with Canada dropping its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and the U.S. dropping its policy rate by 50 basis points. Both central banks signalled a cautious approach for further easing.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: The U.S. economy continued to expand at a moderate pace, supported by strong consumer spending and AI investment. However, job growth slowed and the unemployment rate has edged higher. Inflation remains higher than the 2% target, despite easing trends. While some U.S. trading partners have made trade agreements, uncertainty remains regarding reciprocal tariffs, with a case before the U.S. Supreme Court as to their legality. The Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate twice during the quarter, first in October and again in December, to reach a target rate of 3.50% to 3.75%. Chair Powell cited downside risks to employment as a key factor behind the rate cut decisions and emphasized that officials are “well positioned” to wait and assess how the economy evolves.

In Canada, U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber have weighed heavily on these sectors. While most goods continue to enter the U.S. tariff-free due to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (“CUSMA”), broader uncertainty around U.S. trade policy is dampening business investment. Third quarter GDP growth exceeded market expectations, but growth tracked weaker in the fourth quarter amid the trade disputes. The labour market showed signs of improvement in the fourth quarter after earlier weakness. Headline inflation has hovered near the 2% target, while core inflation remained persistent. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in October and made no changes in December. Going into 2026, trade uncertainty remains with the CUSMA up for renegotiation. The Bank of Canada reiterated its readiness to respond if new shocks or accumulating evidence materially alter the outlook.

Bond Markets: During the quarter, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned -0.3% as interest rates on Canadian bonds rose (bond prices fall as interest rates go up). The increase reflected reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and a higher risk premium demanded by investors for long-term debt. Although interest rates increased, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to move lower. These lower credit spreads resulted in positive overall returns for corporate bonds in the quarter, despite the overall bond market recording a loss. Tightening credit spreads reflected the continued risk-on tone to the market. Despite some volatility, lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now rallied back to the tightest spreads since the 2008 financial crisis, nearing the tightest spreads in history. Despite expensive levels, investors remain buyers of corporate bonds, evidenced not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to set new records, with an impressive $37.5 billion in new issuance in the fourth quarter helping 2025 to exceed the prior year’s issuance. All told, 2025 saw an impressive $160 billion in new issuance via 358 new bonds, versus 2024’s prior record of $139 billion from 301 new bonds.

Stock Markets: The fourth quarter marked a pivotal shift in the global equity market rally of 2025. After three quarters of a highly concentrated, tech-led rally in the U.S., cyclical and valueoriented sectors outperformed in Q4. The S&P 500 advanced at a slower 2.7% in the fourth quarter, reflecting a market that is recalibrating after an extended period of concentrated gains. Canadian equities outperformed U.S. equities as the S&P/TSX Composite returned 6.3% in the quarter, finishing the year with an impressive 31.7% return. That was its strongest annual gain since 2009. The strong returns in Canadian equities were fueled by a powerful rally in the Materials sector, supported by soaring gold and base metal prices, and reinforced by the resilience of the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors. Internationally, developed markets in Europe and Asia gained 6.2% for the quarter, bringing their annual return to 21.2%. This move signals a healthy rebalancing as global investors rotated into attractivelyvalued international equities to hedge against elevated U.S. valuations. Capital is now flowing toward regions and sectors offering stronger earnings visibility and defensive characteristics rather than purely speculative growth.

U.S. Equities: U.S. equities entered the fourth quarter at elevated valuations. Despite fundamentally strong earnings growth, stock prices struggled to move higher because investor expectations were for even stronger growth. Technology remained the primary driver of earnings, but the sector faced intense pressure to prove its value. Specifically, investors questioned the pace at which companies could convert AI investments into actual revenue. Investors also worried that growth remained concentrated among too few companies rather than more broadly across the economy. Sector-wise, Communication Services emerged as the top performer for the full year due to significant margin expansion. This was driven by a wave of media-related merger activity and the successful use of AI to make digital advertising more efficient. Industrials also advanced as new tax incentives for domestic manufacturing boosted factory orders. Nevertheless, the market remains concentrated with the top ten stocks representing nearly 40% of the S&P 500 Index. This level of concentration makes the market vulnerable to sudden price swings. As inflation moderated and the Federal Reserve cut rates in December, investors shifted toward more defensive sectors and international equities. This rotation signals a preference for companies with stable cash flows over speculative growth.

Canadian Equities: The Canadian market was a global standout during the quarter, supported by lower borrowing costs, a stable Financials sector, and rally in the prices of metals (including gold, but also base metals like nickel and copper). The Materials sector led the way as a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical tensions pushed gold to a record of US$4,550 per ounce in late December. For major mining companies, these prices generated record cash flow allowing them to raise dividends and buy back shares. The Bank of Canada interest rate cut supported both the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors, reducing borrowing costs, and helping banks maintain stable net interest margins. The Big Six Canadian Banks delivered strong earnings results in Q4. These were driven by a surge in capital markets activity and better-than-expected provisions for credit losses, as the economy remained resilient. Trading at 17 times forward earnings, the Canadian market appears attractively valued, prompting investors to shift away from U.S. volatility toward more tangible assets and reliable dividends.

Bottom line: The final quarter of 2025 saw a notable shift in investor positioning. As recession fears receded, attention turned to navigating a period of moderate economic expansion. In Canada, capital flowed into profitable, cash flow-generating companies in the Financials and Material sectors. Momentum in U.S. equities slowed as investors reduced risk amid caution around AI developments. Although major indices remain highly valued, opportunities persist in sectors and regions with stable cash flows and pricing power.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Investments	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Investments	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Public Investments	Jin Li Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM Sr. Quantitative Analyst	Andrew Vermeer, CFA Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Edward Ng Cheng Hin Analyst, Credit	Kate (Huyen) Vinh Analyst, Equity	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - Group Advisor Bonus Enhancement Announcing our Enhanced Group Advisor Bonus Program

We have enhanced our Group Advisor Bonus program to make it more competitive and to help support you in building your business with Equitable Life in 2022. We have updated the structure of the bonus program to make it easier for you to qualify, as well as increased the amounts we pay.

Beginning for sales effective in 2022 we have:

Decreased the minimum premium required to qualify for the Sales Bonus to $35,000 from $150,000.
Moved away from using Graded Annualized Premium for both the Sales and Persistency Bonus and are using actual Annualized Premium instead, up to a maximum of $500,000 per policy. This simplifies the program and aligns us with the rest of the industry.
Increased the Sales Bonus payout to up to 5% of Annualized Premium for Traditional Sales and up to 3% of Annualized Premium for myFlex sales.
Changed the minimum annual premium threshold for the Persistency bonus to $500,000 of capped Annualized Premium from $500,000 of Graded Annualized Premium to make it easier for you to qualify.

Premiums associated with benefits on retention accounting or Administrative Services Only (ASO), Equitable HealthConnector® services, Group Critical Illness and Health Care Spending Accounts will no longer be counted towards the Sales Bonus.

These enhancements do not apply to advisors who are not part of our standard Advisor Bonus program and who have special bonus arrangements in place. If you have a special bonus arrangement in place and would like to switch to the standard program, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.

Below is a table comparing the current Sales Bonus structure and payout. For full details, please refer to the Group Advisor Compensation and Recognition brochure.

Enhanced Sales Bonus
For the new Sales Bonus, the Payout Band is based on total combined Traditional and myFlex Benefits new annualized premium (capped at $500,000 per policy). The Sales Bonus Rates for both Traditional sales and myFlex sales are shown in the table below:

New Sales Bonus Rates
Payout Band	Capped Annualized Premium*	Sales Bonus Rate (from first dollar)
Payout Band	Capped Annualized Premium*	Traditional Sales	myFlex Sales
1	$34,999 and under	0%	0%
2	$35,000 to $99,999	3.5%	1.5%
3	$100,000 and over	5%	3%
*Total Traditional and myFlex new business sales combined, capped at $500,000 per policy.

If you have any questions about the Advisor Bonus enhancements, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.

2025 Holiday hours Individual Wealth As the holiday season draws near, we want to express our heartfelt gratitude for your trust and partnership with Equitable. Your dedication and commitment truly make a difference.

Thank you for choosing Equitable for your insurance and wealth solutions and for your continued support throughout the year. Wishing you and your loved ones a joyful holiday season and a successful year ahead!

Client Care Centre holiday hours
Wednesday December 24, 2025 - 8:30 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. ET
Thursday December 25, 2025 – CLOSED
Friday December 26, 2025 – CLOSED
December 29, 30 and 31, 2025 - 8:30 a.m. – 7:30 p.m. ET
Thursday January 1, 2026 - CLOSED

Individual Wealth

All transaction requests to be handled same business day must be submitted in good order by:
• December 24, 2025, 11:00 a.m. ET
• December 31, 2025, 11:00 a.m. ET

FHSA applications must be submitted, in good order by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 p.m. ET to be considered opened in 2025

FHSA deposits to be considered for the 2025 tax year must be:
• Submitted to head office in good order by 11:00 a.m. ET on December 31, 2025

RRSP deposits to be considered for the 2025 tax year must be:
• Dated March 2, 2026, or before
• Must be submitted to Head Office in good order by March 6, 2026, by 4:00 p.m. ET

RRSP applications to be considered for 2025 contribution year must be submitted in good order by:
• March 2, 2026, 11:59 p.m. ET

RRSP B2B Loans:
• RRSP loan deposits must be received by March 13, 2026, by 4:00 p.m. ET
Note: Transactions submitted after these dates will not receive a 2025 contribution receipt

If applications or files come in after the posted cut-off dates, we’ll do our very best to help and aim to settle the policy by year-end. Although we can’t promise the timeline, we’ll work together to make it happen wherever possible.

Thank you for your business and support. We look forward to working together to make this a great year end!

Please note that all requirements must be received in Head Office by the above dates to guarantee settlement for year end.

Looking for Individual Insurance holiday hours? Please click here.
2022 brings a new year of retirement savings opportunities
As a new year begins, you will start to reach out to your clients about the upcoming Retirement Savings Plan deadline, March 1, 2022. This year, connect with your clients through social media, video chats, emails or even in-person. Try Equitable’s Case Studies, Prospecting Letters, Video and Equitable Blog on EquiNet® to make the most of your meetings. Designed for each specific target group, these sales strategies can help initiate a conversation about retirement savings goals.

To learn more about Retirement Savings Plans, click here.
EQUIMAX PARTICIPATING WHOLE LIFE – your whole life solution Recently, we made some exciting changes for Equimax Estate Builder^® and Equimax Wealth Accumulator^®.

These exciting enhancements launched in February make Equimax even more robust, simpler and cost effective, to ensure it continues to be the preferred participating whole life solution for clients and advisors alike.

Visit our splash page and watch our informative video to learn more and start selling the enhanced Equimax today.

Plus, visit our Equimax product page on EquiNet^®, then click on the Marketing Materials tab for the latest Equimax marketing materials.

Need more information? Please contact your local wholesaler.

^®and^TM denote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
A message from Cam Crosbie, EVP, Savings and Retirement, Equitable Life
The first half of 2023 has been an exciting and busy year for us at Equitable Life^®.

In this short video, I share with you some of the things we’ve done to show our commitment to you and some of the great things we’ve got planned for the remainder of the year.

I want to thank you again for your continued support and trust in us. We value our partnership and are always working hard to make things better.

Please take a few minutes to watch the video.

Thank you,

Cam Crosbie, Executive Vice-President, Savings and Retirement Division
Equitable Life of Canada

Posted: July 6, 2023

® denotes a trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
A new look and feel for EZtransact, our digital self-serve tool We’re excited to introduce a new look and feel for EZtransact™, our digital self-serve tool. EZtransact allows you to:
- • Help a client set up a one-time or recurring deposit or edit an existing pre-authorized debit.
- • Manage client segregated fund policies conveniently and eliminate the hassle of filling out forms and facilitating signatures.
EZtransact now has a simplified and modern design that will make managing pre-authorized debit requests even easier!

Check out EZtransact. And stay tuned for more exciting digital enhancements coming soon!

If you have any questions, please contact your Regional Investment Sales Manager. 

Posted November 27, 2023

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