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EAMG Market Commentary July 2023

July 17, 2023

Rates & Credit - The rates market was volatile in Q2 as investors focused on inflation, central bank interest rate decisions, and recession probabilities. Persistent strength in U.S. consumer spending and labour markets have surprised investors and prompted further interest rate tightening from central banks. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index during the quarter, with a total return of 0.2%, versus a loss of 1.0% for government bonds and 0.7% for the overall Index. The corporate bond outperformance was driven by a broad risk-on tone to the market, most notably in April as the market recovered from the banking sector liquidity crisis that developed during March. That said, the market tone remained cautious, with the improved risk premium on corporate bonds tempered by lingering concerns around sticky inflation, high interest rates, and the potential for slower economic growth into the latter half of the year.

Dominance of U.S. Equities – U.S. equity markets posted another strong quarter with the S&P 500 returning 8.7%, outperforming Canada and other major international equity markets. The S&P/TSX Composite, returned 1.2% in CAD. Major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) returned 3.2% in local currency terms. The highly anticipated re-opening of the Chinese economy has failed to materialize with economic data indicating less strength than previously forecasted. Amid sluggish Chinese growth, closely interconnected economic partners such as the European Union, as well as commodity-driven markets like Canada, have all underperformed the U.S. on a relative basis.

U.S. Fundamentals – Earnings continued to contract versus prior year, albeit at a slower pace than forecasted. Forward earnings guidance improved quarter-over-quarter with corporate sentiment returning to neutral levels. Based on our analysis, we observed that 31% of major companies expect deteriorating financial performance, while 33% expect improved performance, with the remaining expecting no material change. Overall, major U.S. companies remain well capitalized with strong operating margins. However, company guidance indicates a prioritization of cost controls amid increased consumer indebtedness and concerns about the health of the consumer.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Mania – Despite concerns that the U.S. economy is at a late stage in its economic cycle, that monetary tightening by central banks could go too far, and the fact that earnings contracted on a year-over-year basis, equity markets became more expensive during the quarter with price-to-earnings multiples expanding. This expansion was driven by investors crowding into AI focused technology companies, with the seven largest AI/technology themed companies averaging a 26% return while the other 493 members gained only 3%. Investors rewarded businesses with contributions to AI development (hardware and software components), as well as those with the ability to implement synergies from leveraging the technology. A crowded market surge is not uncommon at this point in the economic cycle, where positive economic surprises, in this instance, strong employment and consumer spending can lead to an upswelling in investor confidence.

U.S. Quant Factors – Using our investment framework, we currently favour exposures to large cash-rich companies with innovative product offerings, which we believe offer the strongest risk-adjusted returns in the current market environment. While the valuation of AI companies seems to defy traditional rationales, the momentum has continued to push the group higher. Consequently, the Quality factor (companies with higher return-on-equity, strong operating performance, and healthy leverage levels) participated in the AI trend and consistently outperformed throughout the quarter. The Low Volatility factor (stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement, and lower price volatility) underperformed through the quarter. While the Low Volatility factor typically performs well at this stage of the economic cycle, the fact that a small number of stocks were responsible for much of the market’s return hurt this factor. Lastly, the Momentum factor (stocks with a recent history of price appreciation) initially underperformed during the quarter before rebounding in June. This factor’s recent outperformance suggests that the market is becoming complacent and possibly signals that rotations within the market are slowing as current trends remain in favour.

Canadian Fundamentals – Top line revenue missed forecasts while bottom line earnings were consistent with expectations. Softer-than-expected results out of Canadian financials, as well as underwhelming results from the materials sector, dragged on the aggregate index performance. Earnings forecasts for the rest of the year have been revised downward with analyst expecting index aggregate earnings to detract 2% to 3%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.75% on the backdrop of robust economic data releases including Q1 GDP and April CPI.

Canadian Quant Factors – The most notable dislocation in Canada was the convergence of the dividend yield of High-Dividend ETFs and Equal-Weight Bank ETFs. We believe that the drag from Canadian banks following the U.S. regional banking concerns in March resulted in a discount of the Quality factor as the performance of the group is sensitive to the movements of banks. While banks did recover around 35% of their SVB-induced underperformance, the nature of banking has attracted investor scrutiny given the view that we are in the late-stage of the economic cycle. That said, this environment is an attractive environment to add variants of the Quality factor, which would gain exposure to a rebounding industry that offers a similar dividend yield to the high dividend stocks.

Views From the Frontline

Rates – On an outright basis, bond yields across the curve continue to look attractive. Economic data remains strong however we are beginning to see the first signs of weakness in spending, jobs and inflation. Slower growth, a more balanced labour market, declining inflation, and tighter credit conditions will likely drive interest rates lower throughout 2023. Market participants remain focused on the extent of interest rate hikes and the duration of a pause required to bring inflation back to the 2% target. With inflation remaining more persistent than previously expected forecasts around the timing, pace and extent of the removal of monetary policy have been pushed into 2024.

Credit – The uncertain economic outlook and risks around slower economic growth later this year merit caution about corporate bonds and a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we think the risk / reward dynamic are more favourable. That said, the “soft-landing” narrative, now more pervasive in the market, could continue to provide support to risk assets, which we view as an opportunity to further pare down higher beta exposure.

Equities – Given the direction of the current economic and company fundamental data, we continue to favour high quality growth segments of the market with strong operating margins. As such, the late cycle conditions in the market reinforce our preference for large cap stocks over smaller, more U.S. domestically focused businesses. The U.S. Low Volatility factor’s underperformance is unlikely to reverse in the short term given the resilience of the U.S. economy. Furthermore, after a steep decline last quarter, we expect that cyclical value will find support in the near term, echoing the increased chance of slowing inflation without stalling economic growth. In Canada, equities are typically more cyclical in nature, which coupled with the potential for an earnings contraction, makes us view the Low Volatility factor as more likely to outperform. Like the U.S., we prefer Canadian high-quality companies to navigate through the late cycle environment. On the heels of poor Chinese economic data and underwhelming stimulus, we are maintaining our overweight to the U.S. relative to Canada and EAFE.

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ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
Posted July 27, 2023

EAMG Market Commentary April 2024 April 2024

Rates & Credit – Interest rates increased in Q1 2024, giving back half of the decline experienced in Q4 2023 amid consistently positive surprises in U.S. economic data. The positive economic news also drove a strong risk-on tone to the market, with the risk premium on corporate bonds tightening as economic prospects improved. In Canada, corporate bonds outperformed government bonds and the broader FTSE Canada Universe Index (FTSE) with a slightly positive 0.07% return, verses a loss of 1.66% in government bonds and a loss of 1.22% for the overall index. More interest rate sensitive long-term bonds experienced the largest decline, which was partially offset in corporate bonds by the risk-on tone to corporate bond spreads. On a 6-month and 1-year basis, the FTSE remained positive at 6.94% and 2.10%, respectively. Within corporate bonds, lower-rated BBBs outperformed higher-rated A bonds, while industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications underperformed those with less exposure (notably financials and securitization).

Equity Overview – Throughout Q1 2024, concerns about a recession gradually eased as central bankers adopted a more accommodative outlook on monetary policy. Their growing dovishness reflected confidence that the restrictive monetary measures were effectively curbing inflation as anticipated. Underpinned by prospects of an economic soft-landing, global equity markets rallied to start the year with most major North American indices soaring to new all-time highs during the quarter. U.S. equities continued to outperform other major international markets with the S&P 500 returning 10.6% in USD terms. Major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) gained 10.1% in local currency terms, while the TSX added 6.6%. Furthermore, the U.S. economy continued to prove more resilient than most major developed economies, with strong employment and robust output data. As such, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities achieved enhanced returns, benefitting from a stronger Greenback.

U.S. Fundamentals – Corporate earnings beat expectations in Q4 2023, triggering a wave of upward earnings revision. Stable operating margins, cash flows and debt loads continue to attract investors into equities. Investors appear focused on the company’s ability to sustain debt levels ahead of renewing debt obligations. We observed that the number of major companies that expect improving financial performance shrunk to ~19%. This suggests that concentration risks are likely brewing in the equity market, yet again.

U.S. Quant Factors
Optimistic run-up in equity valuations were mostly driven by the momentum factor. A basket of companies with positive price trends intensified concentration risk in the equity market. We note that momentum factor’ performance sharply contrasted fundamental factors, making us cautious on the market’s complacency. For context, high quality companies, which is typically defined by high Return on Equity (ROE), stable earnings variability, and low financial leverage, placed second in our risk-adjusted performance rankings, and is dwarfed by the ~ 17.9% return observed from the momentum factor.

Canadian Fundamentals – Against the backdrop of underwhelming financial results, ROE – a gauge of how efficiently a corporation generates profits – rebounded in Q4, 2023, after declining throughout most of the year. The improved efficiency metric provided a positive catalyst for dividend investors as the inverse movements of ROE relative to financing costs over 2023 kept investors on the sidelines. In addition, the CRB Raw Industrials Index, a measure of price changes of basic commodities, broke out of recent ranges, providing a tailwind for Canada’s energy and materials sector. Concerns with earnings contraction and macro-economic conditions have subsided.

Canadian Quant Factors – Crude prices soared higher in Q1 2024, with ongoing production cuts from OPEC+ and ramifications of geopolitical conflicts keeping oil markets undersupplied. As such, energy companies benefitted, surging higher and outperforming the broader index, while the low volatility basket – with lower exposure to cyclically sensitive business – underperformed into quarter end. Furthermore, Canadian banks underperformed to start the quarter, giving back some of the sharp outperformance witnessed into the end of Q4 2023. That said, soft inflation data increased expectations of impending rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and, as such, banks performed in line with the broader market throughout most of the quarter. Underpinned by expectations of a dovish switch in monetary policy, investors rewarded dividend payers with a history of increasing dividends, boosting confidence in their ability to support future dividend growth. It is important to note that investors should not let dividend growth’s outperformance overshadow high dividend paying companies’ underperformance; more specifically, investors remain attentive to the businesses’ ability to create value relative to financing costs.

Views From the Frontline

Rates – Interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. increased across all bond tenors in Q1 2024. U.S. inflation data surprised to the upside, remaining stubbornly higher than hoped, while labour market and consumer indicators underscored the economy's continued strength. In Canada, inflation data fell below forecasts, but early 2024 GDP readings exceeded expectations. The market now anticipates a 'soft landing' for the U.S. economy; however, the Canadian economy continues to slow. North American central banks have signaled that we are at the peak for policy rates. The market is currently pricing in approximately two-to-three, 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in the second half of 2024, much fewer than the six-to-seven 25 basis point interest rate cuts that the market had been anticipating even just three months ago. As the Swiss central bank led the way with the first rate cut among developed countries, central banks in major developed economies will closely monitor upcoming data and market developments to determine the timing and pace for rate cuts.

Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) continued to tighten over the quarter, with a strong risk-on tone to the market as investors priced in renewed economic growth in 2024 as compared to previous expectations. Corporate bond supply was robust, with $38.2bn in new issuance, the second strongest first quarter on record. On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable.

Equity – We favour a combination of the Dow Jones and the S&P500 for our broad market exposure. The Dow, a price-weighted index, should have some value and low volatility tilt as it tracks mature large companies. As explained above, concentration risks are brewing in the equity market, and during Q1 this risk was exacerbated by investors rushing into a basket of companies with positive price trends, thereby pushing valuation metrics further into the expensive territory. In our view, it is well-suited to use a combination of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 for broad U.S. market exposure given the heightened concentration risk. Looking forward, we expect companies to exhibit stable operating margins and therefore, we are shifting our focus toward the balance between upcoming corporate debt refinancing requirements and reinvestment in projects intended to drive future growth. In plain words, we are tactically adding to companies with stable cash flows and decreased debt loads outside of the mega-cap group. In Canada, we expect a modest earnings growth and remain attentive to how efficiently a corporation generates profits relative to their financing cost. We caution against the overly optimistic, commodity driven, “catch-up” trade vs. our southern neighbour. Therefore, we tweaked our investment strategy by rotating out of the low volatility factor and adding to higher yielding quality companies in Canada.

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Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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Market Commentary January 2025

Key Takeaways

Full year 2024:

Despite reductions of policy-setting interest rates by central banks, yields on longer-term bonds finished the year higher than they started the year.
Positive risk appetite helped corporate bonds perform well, led by lower-quality issuers.
Global equity markets posted robust returns, with U.S. equities outperforming other developed markets, driven by heavy concentration into the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks.

Fourth Quarter:

Central banks continued to ease monetary policy in Q4, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy interest rate more aggressively than did the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The Republican victory across both the executive and legislative branches in the U.S. ignited expectations of economic growth, pushing bond yields and stock prices higher.
Risk sentiment helped corporate bonds continue to outperform government bonds.
Markets remained volatile: while North American stock markets continued to outperform most international indices, Canadian stocks managed to outperform U.S. stocks in Q4, as sources of returns in the U.S. narrowed into year-end.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace in Q4. The rate of inflation continued to slow but remained above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, as the unemployment rate has remained low compared to historical norms. A decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party further boosted expectations for continued growth. The return of the President-elect’s old tactics of threatening tariffs to influence trade, security, and drug control re-introduced some economic uncertainty, particularly regarding the potential return of inflationary pressures. Those concerns prompted the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its policy easing, as it lowered rates by just 0.25% at each of its two meetings in Q4, following the 0.50% cut in September. Throughout 2024, the Fed reduced rates by a total of 100 basis points, from 5.50% to 4.50%. Nonetheless, bond yields were significantly higher for most maturity terms during the fourth quarter as the market priced in not just a stronger economy than had been the expectation during Q3, implying less interest rate cuts by the Fed, but also growing concerns about the government deficit.

In Canada, growth remained positive during 2024 and improved a bit to close the year, but continued to fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations. Similarly, inflation came in lower than expected and below the Bank’s 2% target. The labour market continued to soften for much of the year, with employment growth falling short of labour force growth. The weakness in the labour market and economy, along with tamed inflation, prompted the Central Bank to cut rates at the pace of 50 basis points at each of its two meetings in Q4. For the full year, the Bank of Canada ended up lowering its policy rate by a total of 175 basis points, from 5% to 3.25%. The market has been expecting the Bank of Canada to need to continue cutting rates due to slower economic growth in Canada, but the fear of a possible trade war with the U.S. has made the economic outlook somewhat murkier.

Bond Markets: During the quarter, yields on mid- to long-term bonds in Canada rose in sympathy with rising bond yields in the U.S. However, bond yields in Canada rose to a lesser extent, and yields on shorter-term bonds were actually little changed over the quarter. The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was basically flat during Q4 and posted a return of 4.2% for the full year. Although interest rates rose, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to grind lower, helping corporate bonds post positive overall returns in the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels similar to those experienced in 2021, when markets did quite well after the pandemic. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continued to be very robust in the quarter, with $30 billion in new issuance, resulting in a record-breaking year with $141 billion of new issuance in 2024. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.

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Stock Markets – Overview: Trump’s presidential victory and the Republican party’s ‘red sweep’ in the Senate and House of Representatives sparked optimism surrounding economic growth and a new era of U.S. exceptionalism. As a result, North American equity markets extended their rally in Q4, capping off a year of robust returns. The S&P 500 returned 2.4%, bringing its year-to-date return to 25%. Within the U.S., the broadening of returns paused during the quarter as the chase for growth intensified, with mega-cap growth names like Tesla driving performance. Canadian equities surprisingly outperformed the U.S. market over the quarter, returning 3.8% in Q4, despite threats of widespread tariff negotiations looming on the horizon that could negatively impact Canadian corporate fundamentals. At a sector level, strength in the technology, financials, and energy sectors more than offset weakness in telecommunication companies as well as in the materials sector. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) underperformed last quarter as deteriorating Chinese growth prospects and weak economic growth in the Eurozone weighed on equities. Notably, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities benefitted from a rebounding U.S. dollar with the dollar index adding over 7.6% in Q4.

Chart3-(1).png

U.S. Equities: U.S. equities remain supported by resilient margins and strong corporate earnings growth with over 70% of businesses surpassing bottom-line expectations last quarter. We remain attentive to the broadening of earnings performance and note that this trend has continued, albeit at a normalized pace versus prior quarters. More specifically, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000, excluding the Magnificent 7, posted median earnings growth of 6% last quarter, down from nearly 9% in Q3 but comparable to Q2 (6%). Looking forward to 2025, analysts continue to forecast U.S. exceptionalism, with forecasts of ~12% earnings growth.

Following Trump’s presidential victory, stocks with greater sensitivity to the U.S. economy, such as small cap businesses, benefitted from expectations of domestically focused growth initiatives. However, stubborn inflation and expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the trend of broadening sources of returns pause into the end of the year. Instead, market concentration reaccelerated with investors rushing back towards mega-cap growth stocks. In fact, Tesla – which is approximately 2% of the S&P 500 Index by market cap – contributed approximately one-third of the total index return in Q4, while the Mag 7 as a group contributed over 100% of total returns. In other words, U.S. large cap companies excluding the Magnificent 7 declined in aggregate last quarter.

Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of cooling inflation and below-trend growth, the Bank of Canada continued to loosen monetary policy. As a result, Canadian companies
showed signs of improving efficiency with return on equity – a gauge of corporate profitability – improving versus prior quarters. Under these conditions, investors remained focused on higher quality, high-dividend paying companies – particularly within the financial sector. Relative to prior quarters, this group witnessed greater contribution out of non-bank financials (such as asset managers and insurance companies), as the premium investors were willing to pay for Canadian banks remained elevated. Across other sectors, the energy sector had a positive quarter as the price of oil stabilized, but falling prices for raw industrials pushed the materials sector lower.

Bottom line: U.S. political developments and subsequent growth expectations dominated market sentiment last quarter. As a result, investors dialed back rate cut expectations and bond yields moved higher. In equity markets, the potential for an era of higher-for-longer rates prompted a resumption of investors crowding into growth stocks. Going forward, we remain cautious of elevated valuations and continue to prioritize diversified sources of returns with a long-term outlook. Nonetheless, despite rich valuations, our base case remains that investors’ enthusiasm for equities will persist in the near-term and stocks should continue to outperform bonds.

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Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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Market Commentary October 2025 Key Takeaways

• Market sentiment improved significantly in Q3 as economic uncertainties eased.
• Both U.S. and Canadian stock markets posted strong gains. The rally was supported by sector-specific earnings strength and structural growth drivers in AI and digital infrastructure. Equity valuations remain elevated, which could become a potential headwind for future performance.
• Canadian bond markets delivered positive returns in Q3. Returns were largely from underlying interest income, supported by modestly lower interest rates and continued strong performance from tighter credit spreads.
• Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve restarted easing in Q3. Each central bank cut rates by 25 basis points in September, responding to rising risks to labour markets.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity has remained relatively steady through 2025. However, while business investment remained robust, the pace of hiring slowed. Inflation has increased in recent months, but overall price pressures appear contained. Trade uncertainty eased in the third quarter as the U.S. reached agreements on tariffs with several key trading partners. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, as well as the European Union, negotiated compromise deals. These deals typically involved U.S. tariffs in the range of 15% to 20% in exchange for market access or investment commitments. However, other nations faced higher tariffs of 30-50% following failed negotiations. Mexico and China are currently in a 90-day pause on tariff hikes, which will expire on October 29 and November 10, respectively. At its September meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%– 4.25%. The Fed also signaled that additional interest rate cuts will likely be required to support the economy. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted increasing risks to the labour market and decreasing risks to inflation. He emphasized that the Fed remains data dependent and that interest rate decisions will be made “meeting-by-meeting”. The October 1 shutdown of the U.S. government added further uncertainty to the economic outlook. Key data releases are expected to be delayed, and the White House has warned of mass layoffs of federal workers.

The Canadian economy experienced a modest rebound in July following weak growth in the second quarter. However, U.S. tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty continue to present risks to the economy. The labour market continues to weaken while inflationary pressures have eased in recent months. On July 31, the U.S. increased tariffs on Canadian imports from 25% to 35% for those products not exempted under USMCA. In addition, the U.S. has expanded its list of sector-specific tariffs. This is expected to place further strain on Canadian exporters. In response to these developments, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% during its September meeting. Governor Tiff Macklem indicated that the Bank is prepared to take further action if the balance of risks shifts to weaker growth.

Bond Markets: During Q3, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned 1.5%. Yields on Canadian bonds with maturities of 10 years or less declined. That reflected increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Yields on bonds with maturities of greater than 10 years increased moderately, as investors continued to demand a higher risk premium for long-term debt.

Overall, corporate bonds saw a positive return for the quarter and outperformed government bonds. This outperformance was due to the higher interest rate on corporate bonds relative to government bonds, with an assist from modestly tighter credit spreads. Corporate issuance was robust during the quarter with strong investor demand, as investors were willing to look past U.S. tariffs and their potential impact to global growth. There were 99 corporate bond issuances during Q3 that combined to raise $45 billion for issuers, a new record. Indeed, the new issuance market is tracking ahead of last year, the previous high-water mark for issuance.

Notwithstanding the continued strong performance from corporate bonds, we have maintained a bias towards shorter corporate bonds where the risk and reward are better balanced. We remain ready to invest in longer corporate bonds as valuations become attractive.

Stock Markets: Equity markets posted strong gains in Q3. The S&P 500 returned 8.1% for the quarter, led by Information Technology and Communication Services. Investors focused on the expansion of AI infrastructure and a more favourable regulatory environment for blockchain technology. These themes supported risk appetite despite valuations remaining high relative to historical averages. The Canadian market returned 12.5% in Q3, outperforming the U.S. by more than 4%. This was driven mainly by strong returns in the Materials sector. Meanwhile, the Europe, Australasia, and Far East Index (EAFE) returned 5.4%, as international investors re-evaluated the “Sell America” trade trend.

U.S. Equities: In Q3, U.S. equities rose on strong momentum in AI infrastructure investment and growing interest in blockchain innovation. Mega-cap tech stocks led the rally. Major announcements such as NVIDIA’s $100 billion investment in OpenAI and Oracle’s $300 billion multi-year cloud deal highlighted the rapid growth of hyperscale data centers and the deepening commitment to AI development. A more supportive regulatory environment for blockchain technology also boosted investor interest in digital assets. This was reflected in robust IPO activity from crypto-focused companies such as Figure Technology and Gemini. Both stocks saw sharp gains following their public market debuts. That said, the S&P 500 continues to trade at nearly 23 times its forward earnings, roughly 20% above its 10-year average.

Canadian Equities: Canadian equities rose on better-than-expected economic data and sector-driven earnings, outperforming the U.S. by more than 4% in Q3. The Materials sector drove the rally, contributing nearly half of the gain for the TSX in Q3, as the price of gold surged past US$3850/oz (+45% YTD). The Technology sector also posted solid results, highlighted by Shopify’s continued strong performance. Shopify’s AI-driven product expansion and scalable digital commerce growth pushed the stock to trade around 85 times its forward earnings over the next twelve months. Positive sentiment extended to the Financials sector, where better-than-expected provisions for credit losses helped support a revaluation of bank stocks.

Overall, Q3 marked a risk-on environment across North American equities, underpinned by sector-specific earnings strength and structural growth drivers. In the U.S., enthusiasm around AI and digital infrastructure continued to dominate. In Canada, the rally was driven by surging gold prices and better-than-expected bank earnings. These catalysts helped sustain broad-based market strength across both markets.

Bottom line: Overall market sentiment improved in the third quarter following the volatility earlier in the year caused by tariffs. Investors benefited from resilient performance in North American equities and positive performance in fixed income. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve resumed its rate-cutting cycle, while strong consumer demand and continued capex-spending acted as key drivers for the market strength. In Canada, gold prices continued to surge amid persistent safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks. Looking ahead, we will continue to closely monitor valuation levels and underlying economic data for signals of inflection as the cycle progresses.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Investments	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Investments	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Public Investments	Jin Li Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM Sr. Quantitative Analyst	Andrew Vermeer, CFA Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Edward Ng Cheng Hin Analyst, Credit	Kate (Huyen) Vinh Analyst, Equity	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.