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EAMG market commentary
March 11, 2022
Since Russia first invaded the Ukraine, there’s been no shortage of headlines and commentaries trying to make sense of the situation. This is a tragedy that from a humanitarian standpoint that can’t be made sense of and our hearts go out to the people of Ukraine and those impacted. From a market standpoint, the common thinking is that geopolitical risks, aka war, historically haven’t been associated with significant corrections in the market. So far, the market reaction has been consistent with the historical experience, with the S&P 500 down only about 1% since the start of the conflict and the S&P/TSX Composite Index up close to 4%, despite the heightened daily volatility.
Given the obvious challenges of predicting how these types of conflicts play out, we look to financial market indicators to give us a better sense of the potential risks in the market. And in this respect, the most obvious indicator is oil. Since the start of the Russian invasion, oil has rallied roughly 18%, which is even more impressive considering it had already rallied 21% from the start of the year to the beginning of the conflict.
While we don’t know what will happen to energy markets over the coming weeks, we do know that oil shocks can result in higher inflation and sometimes lower growth. Inflation was already rising, although strategists generally viewed this as temporary on the expectation that the covid related supply chain disruptions and reopening pressures were the primary causes that would eventually self-correct. But as the Russian-Ukraine conflict intensifies, consensus views are moving towards inflation becoming more structural in nature. There are growing risks this will change consumer behaviour, causing inflation to be longer lasting than initially expected. Much of this has to do with the fact that as the world’s 3rd largest exporter of oil, Russia has taken a material amount of oil production capacity offline, resulting in significantly higher oil and gas prices. This also explains the significant outperformance of energy equities, and the broader S&P/TSX Composite Index vs US counterparts on a YTD basis.
While there are beneficiaries to higher oil prices, the consumer certainly isn’t one of them given gas prices reflect movements in the oil market. So far in 2022 prices paid at the pump have gone up 30%, one of the fastest paces on record. This, in addition to food price increases, will put strain on the consumer as higher bills divert dollars away from discretionary spending and potentially slow economic growth.
The other factor we’re closely watching is the overall health of the European economy, to which Russia supplies about 40% of Europe’s natural gas, 25% of their oil imports and 45% of their coal imports. While the European Commission has indicated plans to cuts their dependence on Russian energy well before 2030, the short-term impacts will be costly as Europe and other global markets see higher energy prices follow. As well, food prices will likely become an issue for the region given the interruption of supply out of the Black Sea which has driven grain and oilseed prices to levels not seen since 2008. Investors to date have priced in significant risk, evidenced by the performance of the Stoxx 50 which is down 17% YTD, one of the worst performing markets across the global universe.
While commodity prices are just one indicator, we are mindful that they could be telling us inflation may be more persistent than previously expected. From a long-term perspective this hasn’t changed our view of the equity market. As a result of potential near term impacts however, we have reduced our exposure to European markets in favour of the Canadian market and as well we have added inflation and risk hedges with sector allocations to energy, consumer staples and utilities, while still maintaining our overall long-term target levels to equities. There is no direct exposure to Russia in any of the three Equitable Life Active Balanced Portfolios which includes Equitable Life Active Balanced Growth Portfolio Select, Equitable Life Active Balanced Portfolio Select and Equitable Life Active Balanced Income Portfolio Select.
Downloadable CopyAny statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - November 2022
The importance of timely plan member eligibility updates*
Effective Dec. 1, 2022, we are implementing a revised process for managing plan member and dependent health and dental claims that have been incurred and paid after coverage has been terminated. This new process is consistent with industry practices.
If health or dental claims have been incurred and paid after a plan member’s termination date but before we received notice of the termination, we will align the plan member’s or dependent’s termination date with the service date of the last paid claim, retaining premiums up until that date.
If no claims have been incurred and paid after the termination date, Equitable Life will process the termination as requested and refund any excess premium, subject to a maximum premium refund credit of three months.
Currently, we process the termination as requested and attempt to recover any claim overpayments directly from the plan member. We then refund any excess premiums that have been paid, subject to the maximum refund credit amount.
To avoid claims being incurred and paid after a plan member’s termination date, it is important for your clients to update plan member and dependent eligibility dates on or before the effective date of the change.
If you have any questions about the process your clients should follow for updating plan member eligibility, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.QuickAssess®: Absence and accommodation request review services*
It can be difficult to navigate chronic or complex cases of absenteeism or accommodation requests. That’s where QuickAssess® can help.
QuickAssess is an optional, fee-per-use service that can provide your clients with an unbiased, timely assessment of complex plan member absences and workplace accommodation requests. Our disability experts can provide recommendations to help your clients manage:- Workplace absences
- Chronic or patterned absenteeism
- Requests to modify workplaces or duties
- Return-to-work coordination
- Employee Insurance sick leaves
For more information on using QuickAssess, including eligibility requirements, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
**Within two business days of receiving a completed QuickAssess Absence and Accommodation Review Referral Form and all required information. For more complex referrals, more time will be required.Finding a health care provider with TELUS eClaims direct billing*
By visiting TELUS’s Find a Provider page, your clients’ plan members can now easily search for paramedical and vision providers who are registered on the TELUS Health eClaims network and who can submit claims directly to us on behalf of their patients. Searches can be filtered by postal code to help plan members find the most convenient provider options.
As our direct billing provider for pharmacy, vision and paramedical claims, TELUS Health has an extensive network of 70,000 health care providers that provide direct billing to streamline the claims process.
Please note, plan members should always check Equitable Life’s list of de-listed providers before selecting a health care provider. The list is available for your clients and their plan members on EquitableHealth.ca, and is updated regularly.
For more information about TELUS eClaims, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.First phase of the Canada Dental Benefit proposed for Dec. 1, 2022*
The federal government’s new Canada Dental Benefit is proposed to take effect on Dec. 1, 2022, subject to Parliamentary approval. The program will cover eligible expenses retroactive to Oct. 1, 2022, and this first phase would apply to Canadians under 12 years of age.
If implemented, the Canada Dental Benefit will provide dental care to Canadian families with under $90,000 adjusted net income annually. By 2025, the federal government expects to extend the benefit to children under 18, senior citizens and Canadians with disabilities.
Parents or guardians will be required to apply for this coverage through the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) and must not have private dental coverage for the child(ren).
This new program will have no impact on your clients’ dental coverage and no action is required on their part.
* Indicates content that will be shared with your clients.
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EAMG Market Commentary January 2024
Rates & Credit – Interest rates decreased sharply in Q4 as the market priced in aggressive interest rate cuts by central banks in 2024. The prospect of lower interest rates also drove a strong risk-on tone to the market, with the risk premium on corporate bonds grinding tighter as prospects for a “soft landing” improved. The rally in interest rates resulted in the best quarter for bonds over the past 15 years, with the FTSE Canada Universe Index returning 8.3%. Corporate bonds modestly underperformed the Universe Index with a return of 7.3%. The lower return for corporate bonds was primarily driven by the fact that the corporate bond index is less sensitive to interest rate movements (as compared to the government index), partially offset by the risk-on tone to the market. Within corporate bonds, lower-rated BBBs outperformed higher-rated A bonds. Industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications outperformed those with less exposure (notably financials and securitization), consistent with the overall shift in the yield curve.
Santa Came to Town – Moving in sync with bonds, global equities jolted higher into the end of the year with cooling inflation data and dovish comments from central bankers. The U.S. market outperformed most regions last quarter with the S&P 500 returning 11.7% in USD terms, bringing the total return in 2023 to 26.3%. The TSX added 8.1% in Q4, boosting the total annual return to 11.8%. Meanwhile, major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) gained 5.0% in local currency terms over the quarter, helping the region produce a 16.8% return from the year prior. Prospects of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the Loonie rally into year-end and resultantly, investors of Canadian dollar securities witnessed enhanced returns. Strong domestic U.S. economic data helped value pockets of the market outperform. That said, this was not a synchronized trend as China’s economic disappointment weighed on the performance of EAFE.
U.S. Fundamentals – Our work shows that investors are shifting their focus away from operating margins and towards the ability to sustain debt levels ahead of renewing debt obligations. Corporate earnings beat modest expectations last quarter, contracting by less-than-expected on a year-over-year basis. Resilient operating margins continue to attract investors into equities. After three consecutive quarters of improving forward earnings guidance, we observed that the number of major companies expecting deteriorating financial performance grew to ~35%. We note that this is a sharp contrast relative to the optimistic run-up in equity valuations. In general, corporate pessimism has been underpinned by concerns for the health of the consumer, increasing wage pressures, and inflation.
U.S. Quant Factors – While mega-cap technology stocks gave back some ground in the second half, crowding into the magnificent 7 remains noticeable with the cap weighted S&P 500 outperforming the equal weighted index by 12.5% last year. That said, value areas of the market – which underperformed through the first three quarters of the year – were top performing companies last quarter as the prospects for an economic “soft-landing” improved with U.S. inflation continuing to ease without substantial deteriorations of employment or output data. Quality-growth businesses initially outperformed as the higher-for-longer narrative continued to drive investors toward large cash-rich companies with stable margins. That said, this basket of companies gave back relative returns into quarter-end as weakness in operating margins persisted, making fundamentals appear stretched. Low volatility stocks (i.e. stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement and lower price volatility) rallied to start the quarter before dovish comments from central bankers improved risk-sentiment and ultimately pushed this basket lower on a relative basis. Lastly, dividend growth companies, which include businesses with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, underperformed the broader index as market participants punished businesses that slowed capital growth projects during the rising interest rate environment. While operating margins have declined, the basket’s strong cash flow and low debt burden may be advantageous if the market’s anticipation of impending interest rate cuts proves to be incorrect or mistimed.
Canadian Fundamentals – Although Canadian companies exceeded bleak forecasts last quarter, earnings continue to contract on a year-over-year basis. Return on equity (ROE) – a gauge of how efficiently a corporation generates profits – continued to decline last quarter while corporate costs of capital remain elevated. In essence, Canadian companies are generating less value relative to their financing cost. Value creation underpins the sustainability of dividend payments, which are a unique and desirable attribute of the Canadian market. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada held its overnight interest rate unchanged with market participants forecasting a higher probability of interest rate cuts in 2024. On the expectations of easing monetary conditions, dividend yields compressed while earnings forecasts improved with analysts predicting that index aggregate earnings will grow 6% to 8% in 2024. At a sector level, the energy industry’s financial performance normalized – in line with expectations – as weakening oil demand expectations overshadowed geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, ultimately pushing crude prices ~21% lower last quarter. The industrials and financials sectors beat expectations, helping offset softer-than-expected results from the consumer staples and technology sectors.
Canadian Quant Factors – The Canadian banks underperformed for most of the year as they reported increasing provisions for nonperforming loans, reflecting forecasts of worsening economic conditions. That said, expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024 helped tame recession fears and eased concerns of slowing loan growth, propelling banks higher in the fourth quarter as they appeared more stable and therefore favourable than prior estimates. The high-quality basket underperformed last quarter as improving risk sentiment in the market reduced the attractiveness of secure companies with lower earnings variability. Furthermore, high dividend payers with solid growth prospects outperformed in the fourth quarter as market participants rewarded companies that demonstrated a strong ability to support future dividends and punished high yielding businesses with less certain financial capabilities.
Views From the Frontline Rates – Interest rates declined sharply in Q4 as inflation continued to trend lower, fears of excess bond supply declined, and the Federal Open Market Committee signaled that the next change to their overnight policy interest rate would likely be lower. Labour market and consumer spending data remain resilient however businesses have indicated slowing across industries, more price-sensitive consumers, rising delinquencies, and concerns about the high cost of debt. Central banks remain committed to achieving their 2% inflation target and most acknowledge that interest rates have likely peaked.
Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) tightened materially over the quarter, with a strong risk on tone to the market as investors priced in lower interest rates in 2024 and a “soft-landing” to economic concerns. Corporate bond supply was well received by the market. On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, and as such, we remain cautious on corporate bonds and have a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable.
Equity – In the U.S., we allocated exposure to value names which outperformed over the quarter as the macroeconomic outlook improved on the backdrop of rate cut expectations. Looking forward, we expect that margins will continue to normalize as Covid-induced pent up demand fades. While we do not forecast margins to compress at an alarming rate, we believe sticky wage and input costs will continue to pressure businesses while consumers exhibit further exhaustion. As such, we are shifting our focus toward the balance between company reinvestment in capital projects and upcoming debt refinancing requirements. In line with this view, we favour businesses with stable cash flows and decreased debt loads as we believe they present an attractive contrarian opportunity if soft-landing projections prove to be overstated. Within Canada, we remain attentive to the inverse movements of ROE relative to financing costs over 2023. With the excess between ROE and financing costs compressing, businesses’ ability to create value appears more stretched than earlier in 2023. Therefore, we continue to favour high quality companies in Canada, which is typically defined by high ROE, stable earnings variability, and low financial leverage. Geographically, the U.S. economy appears to be in healthier condition with inflation easing while employment and output data remain stable and hence, our focus will be on capital expenditures. EAFE – which is generally more economically linked to China than North America – contains a large bucket of stable, high-quality businesses that may benefit from any upside economic surprises out of China. Lastly, through the lens of a Canadian investor, the Loonie’s relative value versus other major currencies presents another resource in our investment mandate to derive excess return.Downloadable Copy
Mark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public Portfolio ManagementIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public Portfolio ManagementJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Portfolio ManagementJin Li
Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA
Senior Analyst, Equity
Andrew Vermeer
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - October 2022
Introducing new Gender Affirmation Coverage for group benefits plans
Providing an inclusive benefits plan can play a critical role in fostering a workplace culture that welcomes diversity and helps employees thrive. While most provinces cover the cost of gender-affirming surgery, each person has unique needs. Some may require procedures that are not publicly covered.
That’s why we’re pleased to introduce a new coverage option for gender affirmation surgical procedures that are not covered by provincial health plans. Gender Affirmation Coverage helps plan sponsors to close the gap where provincial health coverage ends.Coverage details and eligibility
Gender Affirmation Coverage can be added to any Equitable Life plan with an in-force Extended Health Care plan. It provides coverage for gender-affirming procedures that are not covered by provincial health plans. This might include tracheal (Adam’s apple) shaving and voice surgery. It will also cover some additional procedures to further align the plan member’s features to the transitioned gender, such as facial bone reduction and cheek augmentation. This makes a wider variety of gender-affirming surgeries accessible to plan members and helps minimize their out-of-pocket costs.
Plan members are eligible for coverage with a diagnosis of gender dysphoria from a qualified health care professional.Offering a more inclusive benefits plan
The coverage provides one more way for your clients to offer more inclusive coverage and to offer holistic support to their plan members undergoing a gender transition. We have developed this coverage as a complement to our existing coverage options, including Health Care Spending Accounts (HCSAs), Taxable Spending Accounts (TSAs), Extended Health Care and drug coverage, and Employee and Family Assistance Programs, all of which can provide support to plan members undergoing gender affirmation.
We regularly review our products to ensure that they’re meeting your clients’ needs, and we’re committed to offering products that support diversity, equity and inclusion.
We also continue to review our forms, documents and processes to make them more inclusive. This includes reviewing our online plan member enrolment (OPME) tool to allow for more flexibility with the way plan members identify their gender.Gender affirmation and mental well-being
Gender affirmation procedures can lead to improved mental health outcomes for those with gender dysphoria, as most report an improvement in their quality of life following the procedures. Gender dysphoria may occur when a person’s assigned sex at birth does not match their identity, and people experiencing gender dysphoria typically report psychological and emotional distress, including symptoms of depression or anxiety. By offering coverage where provincial health coverage ends, your clients can support plan members as they seek procedures that align their body presentation with their self-identified gender.
Advantages at a glance
Advantages for plan members include:- Reimbursement for some procedures and expenses, leading to fewer out-of-pocket costs
- May experience improved mental health outcomes after surgery
- A benefits plan that promotes a culture of diversity, equity and inclusion, which may build employee loyalty
- Support for plan member mental health to help those with gender dysphoria thrive
The Benefits Canada 2022 Health Care Survey results are in!
Equitable Life is proud to be a Platinum sponsor for The Benefits Canada 2022 Health Care Survey, Canada’s leading survey on workplace benefits plans. This year’s survey report highlights many fascinating insights across a wide variety of benefits topics, including:- A focus on mental health for both plan sponsors and plan members
- The repercussions of the "shadow" pandemic due to health care delays
- Trends in plan members' overall perceptions of their health benefits plans
- The types of benefits getting more attention from plan members
- The role of remote work in plan member satisfaction
We’re committed to helping you and your clients navigate the evolving landscape of employee benefits in Canada by contributing to this vibrant industry community. To read the full report, visit Benefits Canada.
HCSA and TSA manual allocation reminder
If your clients’ Health Care Spending Account (HCSA) and/or Taxable Spending Account (TSA) have manual allocations, they need to allocate these amounts to plan members each year. Clients should review their plan members’ profiles on EquitableHealth.ca to ensure they have received their allocation(s) for the current benefit year. Your clients may also order HCSA and TSA forfeiture reports on EquitableHealth.ca.
If your clients have Plan Administrator update access on EquitableHealth.ca, they can update these amounts online by doing the following:- Select View certificate
- Select Health Care Spending Account or Taxable Spending Account
- Select Update Allocation in Task Center
- Enter amount in Revised Allocation Amount
- Override Reason – Plan Administrator Request
- Select Save
- Select Reports
- Select New
- Select Next
- Select HCSA or TSA Totals by Plan Member
- Select Next
- Enter end date of 12/31/2022
- Select Next
- Select Finish
- View Report