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Market Commentary April 2025

Key Takeaways for Q1

Economic policy became more uncertain with fluctuating tariff announcements from the U.S. and its trading partners.
Global stocks markets experienced heightened volatility year-to-date, reflecting the negative repercussions of tariffs for highly integrated global economies.
Within U.S. markets, investors rotated out of growth stocks into value and defensive areas of the market.
Bond markets performed well during the quarter as interest rates moved lower.
Most central banks continued to ease monetary policy by reducing their target interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve was a notable exception, electing to wait for greater clarity before lowering rates further.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., the latest GDP data confirmed solid economic growth in 2024. However, as President Trump pushes forward his economic agenda, uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and global trade have dampened market sentiment. Inflation pressures persisted, with the rate of inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, with unemployment rate staying low compared to historical norms. The Federal Reserve shifted to a more cautious approach, holding the policy rate steady through Q1 at the range 4.25% - 4.5%. The central bank raised its inflation forecast, lowered growth projections, and warned that “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.” U.S. bond yields were lower for most maturity dates during the first quarter, as the market priced in more growth concerns and anticipated more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

In Canada, recent GDP data showed stronger-than-expected growth. The inflation rate remained close to the 2% target but rose more than expected in February, and the labour market showed signs of improvement. U.S. tariffs continued to be a significant concern, and it is prompting businesses and consumers to become more cautious and slow their spending. The Bank of Canada warned that the economic impact of the tariffs could be “severe” and expected weaker growth in the coming quarters. For those reasons the Bank of Canada continued its easing cycle, cutting rates by 25 basis points at each of the January and March meetings, bringing the policy rate to 2.75%. Bond yields in Canada were also lower, with short-term interest rates decreasing faster than long-term interest rates as the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts outpaced market expectations.

Bond Markets: During Q1 2025, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned 2.0% as interest rates declined across all tenors. Although interest rates fell, this was partially offset by higher credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk). Consequently, while corporate bonds still generated a positive return on the quarter, they underperformed government bonds. Widening credit spreads reflected the risk-off tone to the market, with on-off-on-off-on(?) tariffs contributing to the uncertainty. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed worse than higher-quality A-rated bonds. While credit spreads are higher than they were in December and January, they are still expensive compared to longer term averages. Corporate bond issuance remained robust up until the last week of March, as investor demand kept deals well supported. Overall, the market took in $40 billion in new issuance, the second highest on record, spread over 82 bonds. While corporate bonds are more attractive than in January 2025, we believe the more likely path is towards higher credit spreads as U.S. tariffs impact global growth. We have maintained our conservative view with a bias towards shorter-dated credit but remain ready to invest in longer dated corporate bonds as valuations become more attractive.

Stock Markets – Overview:
Uncertainty surrounding the scope and severity of new tariffs led investors to reassess global economic growth prospects and weighed on risk sentiment. As a result, the S&P 500 declined 4.3% over the quarter, underperforming Canadian and international markets. Within the U.S., investors rotated out of previously favoured growth stocks with loftier valuations – including members of the Magnificent 7 – into less volatile and value-cyclical companies. Meanwhile, Canadian equities returned 1.5% in Q1 despite ongoing trade negotiations and uncertain economic growth forecasts. Surging commodity prices helped the materials and energy sectors outperform, offsetting weakness in the technology and industrials sectors. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) were supported over the quarter by the introduction of a new German fiscal stimulus package and signs of improving Chinese economic growth. Following the quarter end, President Trump announced global tariffs on April 2^nd, prompting some trading partners to hit back with retaliatory tariffs. The S&P 500 lost a record $5.2 trillion over two trading sessions and re-entered correction territory, with other global equity markets moving in tandem.

U.S. Equities: While the impact of tariffs has made investors more apprehensive, we have yet to witness a deterioration in financial performance. In fact, U.S. earnings continued to exceed forecasts last quarter, with approximately 70% of companies beating expectations. Furthermore, our bottom-up analysis shows that the skew of corporate earnings surprises continues to tilt positive. That said, we note that companies are providing more cautious guidance amid the increased economic uncertainty and that these earnings largely reflect conditions in 2024, not 2025. Notably, consumer stocks like Walmart have lowered growth forecasts for 2025, citing concerns surrounding consumer confidence and macroeconomic conditions. In addition to clouding the outlook, geopolitical shocks like sweeping tariffs may risk changing how companies choose to operate, including the structure of supply chains and sources of revenue. At this stage, it is still unclear how long these trade tensions will last, as that depends on how other countries choose to respond. If the tariffs are rolled back quickly, many companies may be able to absorb the temporary extra costs without serious damage to profits, and the broader economy could avoid lasting harm. But if the tariffs remain in place for a long time, the consequences could be much more serious; companies might have to change how they operate, restructure supply chains, and raise prices to deal with long-term pressure on profits.

Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of worrisome trade developments, the Bank of Canada continued to ease monetary policy. While lower rates have helped Canadian companies report better-than-expected profit growth, consensus earnings expectations for 2025 have been revised 2% lower since the beginning of the year, reflecting the expectations for tariff headwinds. Falling bond yields made high quality, high dividend paying companies more attractive, helping this group outperform. Furthermore, the price of raw industrials – a basket of commodities – surged higher over the quarter and as a result, commodity-oriented companies benefitted. More specifically, the materials sector performed strongly with gold prices reaching new all-time highs throughout the quarter. However, if trade frictions continue to escalate and weaker growth projections materialize into a real economic slowdown, the Canadian market, given its cyclical nature and heavy reliance on commodity-driven businesses, remains particularly vulnerable to external headwinds. Moreover, given Canada’s weaker fundamental backdrop, we caution that the recent outperformance of Canadian equities relative to the U.S. may prove short-lived, particularly if trade tension persists.

Bottom line:
Heightened uncertainty surrounding global trade policies, coupled with deteriorating economic growth projections, continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Bond prices benefited from the flight to less-risky assets, with lower interest rates in anticipation of weaker economic conditions. In equity markets, the introduction of broad-based tariffs increased market volatility and drove major indices sharply lower year-to-date. Looking forward, we remain cautious of the recent outperformance of Canadian and international markets relative to the U.S. While tariffs began as a U.S. policy move, the ripple effects extend far beyond American borders, reflecting the systemic fragility that underpins global trade. If trade barriers persist, businesses may be forced to make structural shifts in their operations and review their current business models. Until markets achieve greater clarity on global trade policies, we continue to prioritize exposure to diversified large-cap stocks in the U.S., over defensive or growth-heavy positions. Within Canada, we continue to favour high quality, high dividend paying names with less sensitivity to downgrades in global growth.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

Market Commentary October 2025 Key Takeaways

• Market sentiment improved significantly in Q3 as economic uncertainties eased.
• Both U.S. and Canadian stock markets posted strong gains. The rally was supported by sector-specific earnings strength and structural growth drivers in AI and digital infrastructure. Equity valuations remain elevated, which could become a potential headwind for future performance.
• Canadian bond markets delivered positive returns in Q3. Returns were largely from underlying interest income, supported by modestly lower interest rates and continued strong performance from tighter credit spreads.
• Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve restarted easing in Q3. Each central bank cut rates by 25 basis points in September, responding to rising risks to labour markets.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity has remained relatively steady through 2025. However, while business investment remained robust, the pace of hiring slowed. Inflation has increased in recent months, but overall price pressures appear contained. Trade uncertainty eased in the third quarter as the U.S. reached agreements on tariffs with several key trading partners. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, as well as the European Union, negotiated compromise deals. These deals typically involved U.S. tariffs in the range of 15% to 20% in exchange for market access or investment commitments. However, other nations faced higher tariffs of 30-50% following failed negotiations. Mexico and China are currently in a 90-day pause on tariff hikes, which will expire on October 29 and November 10, respectively. At its September meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%– 4.25%. The Fed also signaled that additional interest rate cuts will likely be required to support the economy. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted increasing risks to the labour market and decreasing risks to inflation. He emphasized that the Fed remains data dependent and that interest rate decisions will be made “meeting-by-meeting”. The October 1 shutdown of the U.S. government added further uncertainty to the economic outlook. Key data releases are expected to be delayed, and the White House has warned of mass layoffs of federal workers.

The Canadian economy experienced a modest rebound in July following weak growth in the second quarter. However, U.S. tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty continue to present risks to the economy. The labour market continues to weaken while inflationary pressures have eased in recent months. On July 31, the U.S. increased tariffs on Canadian imports from 25% to 35% for those products not exempted under USMCA. In addition, the U.S. has expanded its list of sector-specific tariffs. This is expected to place further strain on Canadian exporters. In response to these developments, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% during its September meeting. Governor Tiff Macklem indicated that the Bank is prepared to take further action if the balance of risks shifts to weaker growth.

Bond Markets: During Q3, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned 1.5%. Yields on Canadian bonds with maturities of 10 years or less declined. That reflected increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Yields on bonds with maturities of greater than 10 years increased moderately, as investors continued to demand a higher risk premium for long-term debt.

Overall, corporate bonds saw a positive return for the quarter and outperformed government bonds. This outperformance was due to the higher interest rate on corporate bonds relative to government bonds, with an assist from modestly tighter credit spreads. Corporate issuance was robust during the quarter with strong investor demand, as investors were willing to look past U.S. tariffs and their potential impact to global growth. There were 99 corporate bond issuances during Q3 that combined to raise $45 billion for issuers, a new record. Indeed, the new issuance market is tracking ahead of last year, the previous high-water mark for issuance.

Notwithstanding the continued strong performance from corporate bonds, we have maintained a bias towards shorter corporate bonds where the risk and reward are better balanced. We remain ready to invest in longer corporate bonds as valuations become attractive.

Stock Markets: Equity markets posted strong gains in Q3. The S&P 500 returned 8.1% for the quarter, led by Information Technology and Communication Services. Investors focused on the expansion of AI infrastructure and a more favourable regulatory environment for blockchain technology. These themes supported risk appetite despite valuations remaining high relative to historical averages. The Canadian market returned 12.5% in Q3, outperforming the U.S. by more than 4%. This was driven mainly by strong returns in the Materials sector. Meanwhile, the Europe, Australasia, and Far East Index (EAFE) returned 5.4%, as international investors re-evaluated the “Sell America” trade trend.

U.S. Equities: In Q3, U.S. equities rose on strong momentum in AI infrastructure investment and growing interest in blockchain innovation. Mega-cap tech stocks led the rally. Major announcements such as NVIDIA’s $100 billion investment in OpenAI and Oracle’s $300 billion multi-year cloud deal highlighted the rapid growth of hyperscale data centers and the deepening commitment to AI development. A more supportive regulatory environment for blockchain technology also boosted investor interest in digital assets. This was reflected in robust IPO activity from crypto-focused companies such as Figure Technology and Gemini. Both stocks saw sharp gains following their public market debuts. That said, the S&P 500 continues to trade at nearly 23 times its forward earnings, roughly 20% above its 10-year average.

Canadian Equities: Canadian equities rose on better-than-expected economic data and sector-driven earnings, outperforming the U.S. by more than 4% in Q3. The Materials sector drove the rally, contributing nearly half of the gain for the TSX in Q3, as the price of gold surged past US$3850/oz (+45% YTD). The Technology sector also posted solid results, highlighted by Shopify’s continued strong performance. Shopify’s AI-driven product expansion and scalable digital commerce growth pushed the stock to trade around 85 times its forward earnings over the next twelve months. Positive sentiment extended to the Financials sector, where better-than-expected provisions for credit losses helped support a revaluation of bank stocks.

Overall, Q3 marked a risk-on environment across North American equities, underpinned by sector-specific earnings strength and structural growth drivers. In the U.S., enthusiasm around AI and digital infrastructure continued to dominate. In Canada, the rally was driven by surging gold prices and better-than-expected bank earnings. These catalysts helped sustain broad-based market strength across both markets.

Bottom line: Overall market sentiment improved in the third quarter following the volatility earlier in the year caused by tariffs. Investors benefited from resilient performance in North American equities and positive performance in fixed income. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve resumed its rate-cutting cycle, while strong consumer demand and continued capex-spending acted as key drivers for the market strength. In Canada, gold prices continued to surge amid persistent safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks. Looking ahead, we will continue to closely monitor valuation levels and underlying economic data for signals of inflection as the cycle progresses.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Investments	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Investments	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Public Investments	Jin Li Director, Equity Investments
Wanyi Chen, CFA, FRM Sr. Quantitative Analyst	Andrew Vermeer, CFA Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Edward Ng Cheng Hin Analyst, Credit	Kate (Huyen) Vinh Analyst, Equity	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

Navigating the current market
[pdf] G3NU-Application for Non-Underwriting Change
[pdf] G2 - Application for Non-Underwriting change
NEW MARKETING MATERIAL! Flexibility for supplemental income with Equimax Equitable has created a new piece to help you understand our new Equimax^® illustration feature, Paid-Up Additions (PUA) to Cash Dividends, now available!

Did you know Equimax clients can switch from the PUA dividend option to the cash dividend option by simply requesting a dividend option change?^1,2

You can illustrate this for paid-up 10 pay and 20 pay Equimax plans! Show clients how they can build in added flexibility and use their policy to create a source of future supplemental income by simply changing the dividend option to cash.³

Illustration Considerations:
● Works with Equimax Estate Builder^® or Equimax Wealth Accumulator^®.
● Illustrate the Excelerator Deposit Option (EDO) to help build the policy values while the PUA dividend option is in effect. EDO payments can’t be made once the policy is switched to the cash dividend option.
● If a client needs temporary insurance coverage – like mortgage protection - illustrate term riders for how long they are needed to meet the specific goal.³
● If critical illness coverage is needed our competitively priced 20 pay critical illness riders are a great fit to provide paid-up critical illness coverage.³

Clients should apply for the coverage they need. This concept is about flexibility to create a future source of supplemental income.

Want to learn more? Check out our new marketing piece: Flexibility for supplemental income with Equimax (2077).

For more information, reach out to your local wholesaler.

^®and ^TMdenote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
¹ Dividends are not guaranteed and are paid at the sole discretion of the Board of Directors. Dividends may be subject to taxation. Dividends will vary based on the actual investment returns in the participating account as well as mortality, expenses, lapse, claims experience, taxes, and other experience of the participating block of policies.
² To request a change to the dividend option complete and submit form 558 (Request for Withdrawal of Dividends, Change in Option, or Premium Offset). A client can request a change to the cash dividend option from any other dividend option regardless of the premium type or whether premiums continue to be payable, subject to our current administration rules and guidelines. Some dividend option changes are subject to underwriting. Underwriting is not required to change from the PUA to cash dividend option, however, underwriting is required to change from the cash dividend option to the PUA dividend option.
³ This concept is intended to illustrate a one-time switch to cash dividends once premiums are no longer payable for the policy (including premiums for riders). Premiums are paid with after-tax dollars and dividends paid in cash are subject to taxation. If premiums are payable there will be tax savings for the client to use the before-tax cash dividend to reduce the premium instead of taking it entirely as a cash payment. This concept is intended for longer term planning, not to meet short term cash needs by switching back and forth between the PUA and cash options. Clients should consider a policy loan or a cash withdrawal to meet short-term cash needs; policy loans and cash withdrawals may be subject to taxation.
A New Universal Life Insurance Solution for the 21st Century – Available NOW! Introducing a new universal life solution built for the 21st century: Equitable Generations™ universal life insurance is available for sale NOW!

Check out our Equitable Generations universal life splash page: www.equitable.ca/ul

Our new Equitable Generations universal life insurance
Equitable Generations is a universal life product that offers investment options that resonate with today’s 21^st century client while reducing every fee possible. It also reduces the cost of insurance to help clients maximize their opportunity to purchase coverage and build tax-advantaged wealth.

NEW: EZstart^TM Generations
Today we are launching EZstart Generations which is:
- A mobile-optimized tool for advisors
- Designed to start a conversation and provide a possible universal life solution in under one minute
- Goals based - you can see how Equitable Generations™ universal life insurance can perform at different stages of a client’s life.
Give it a try and use this tool as you are starting the conversation about universal life solutions with clients. EZstart links directly to the EZcomplete® online application for an easy digital experience.

NEW: SMS
Effective today, September 26, 2022 when you submit an application, you can opt-in to receive text message updates for your new business applications.
That’s a text message when:
- The application is received,
- A decision has been made by Equitable Life,
- The policy is ready for delivery, and
- The commissions have been triggered.
Please note, this number is not monitored for incoming texts. Please contact Customer Service with any questions.
Learn more

Find all the exciting details on our virtual launch splash page (www.equitable.ca/ul) and watch our informative videos to get all the information you need to start selling Equitable Generations universal life.

Check out our Equitable Generations universal life splash page: www.equitable.ca/ul

Click on the Marketing Materials tab on EquiNet® for all of our new Equitable Generations marketing materials.
Please contact your Regional Sales Manager for more information.

^TM and ® denote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
How to Stay Grounded in a Changing World: Supporting Financial & Mental Well-Being Are clients feeling the strain of global uncertainty? Join our Master Class webcast, "How to Stay Grounded in a Changing World: Supporting Financial & Mental Well-Being," to gain insights on managing financial and mental well-being.

We will explore how economic instability, geopolitical conflict, and climate change impact mental health and financial behaviours.

Join Shannon Labby, Vice President, National Investment Sales, Equitable as she welcomes Homewood Health’s clinical expert, Gabrielle Provencher who will provide tools to help advisors recognize signs of mental strain and support clients in maintaining financial focus.

Why Attend?
- Understand the psychological impacts of global crises and media exposure.
- Learn how financial stress can affect mental health and decision-making.
- Enhance media literacy to help navigate misinformation and stay focused.
- Develop coping strategies to help manage anxiety and promote resilience.
- Gain techniques to help clients form self-care habits for long-term financial security.
Don't miss your chance to engage with industry experts and enhance your advisory services.
Learn more

Continuing Education Credits
This webcast has been submitted for continuing education (CE) approval for all provinces excluding Quebec via the Insurance Council of Manitoba and Alberta Insurance Council. Upon approval, you will be sent an email notification to come back to the webcast presentation console to download your personalized certificate from the tool bar. To be eligible for CE credits, you must register individually, watch the webcast in full, and complete a short quiz. It is the advisor's responsibility to ensure Continuing Education credits being offered are accepted by their licensing body. Alberta Insurance Council (AIC) credits are valid in Yukon, British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia. Insurance Council of Manitoba (ICM) credits are valid in Manitoba only.
This webcast is available in English only.

Date posted: June 5, 2025
Introducing Path to Invest for learning and earning CE credits Equitable Life is pleased to introduce Path to Invest, our self-serve Continuing Education accredited presentation platform for advisors.

Whether you want to learn more about the financial services industry or how responsible investment solutions can fit into a client’s overall financial well-being, Path to Invest has what you are looking for.

It’s a one stop shop with 15 accredited presentations on a variety of topics. All with a video tutorial, short quiz and resource links for more information.

A few important notes before you get started.
PLEASE USE CHROME to get the best online experience as elements of the platform may not display correctly in other browsers.

To get started on your Path to Invest:
- • Click Equitable Life Education site
- • Use the email address that you received this email to login.
- • Your password is Equitable
- • This link is specifically for your use only. Please do not share this link.
Earning CE credits with Path to Invest is easy.
1. Select a module.
2. Watch the entire video presentation.
3. Complete the quiz and receive a passing grade.
Once you’ve successfully completed the requirements, your personalized CE certificate will automatically be available to download.

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Questions? Contact your Regional Investment Sales Manager to get started on your Path to Invest today!

™ or ® denote registered trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.

Posted June 14, 2023
Celebrating our wins – 2023 Individual Insurance Marketing Recap Equitable^® would like to wish everyone a Happy New Year and we are looking forward to doing more business together in 2024!

As we start a brand new year, we would like to share with you some highlights of our 2023 initiatives in Individual Insurance. These projects aimed to make it easier to do business and enrich your experience of working with us.

Digital & Administration Enhancements
Our 2023 digital transformation initiatives ensured smoother processes, streamlined operations, and improved user experiences for advisors and clients:
● Digital Transactions for Universal Life Plans
● Text Notifications Keep You Informed on Your New Business
● New Online Policy Loan Form
● EZcomplete Enhancement for Critical Illness
● New Life & CI Application

Product Updates
Equally pivotal were our efforts in enhancing our individual life insurance solutions to empower you to confidently recommend us to clients:
● A Tune-Up for Equimax
● The Equimax Evolution Continues
● Critical Illness Insurance Update
● New Dividend Scale Interest Rate

To learn more about the above initiatives, kindly reach out to your local wholesaler.
Thank you for entrusting us with your business in 2023!
Continue watching for news from Equitable for more great launches and enhancements in 2024!

^®or ^TMdenote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada

Site Search

245 results for PROBLEMGO.COM Looking to pay a judges clerk to influence the decision

Check out our Equitable Generations universal life splash page: www.equitable.ca/ul

Check out our Equitable Generations universal life splash page: www.equitable.ca/ul

Learn more