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EAMG Market Commentary August 2022

August 2022
The S&P 500 fell into bear market territory over the first half of 2022 with the index down -20.6%. This represented a top 10 ranking amongst the most dismal back-to-back quarterly performances going back to 1928. While comparisons have been made to the inflation driven bear market of 1973-74, the economic backdrop today has some significant differences including greater production capacity (factory utilization rates are running about 20% lower vs the 70’s) and a meaningful decline in raw industrial prices which have fallen -11% over the quarter. While these economic anecdotes are potential positives for the future, it’s important to remain cognizant that prices remain elevated.
As such, the US Federal Reserve seems to be taking every opportunity to telegraph their intentions of raising interest rates at the expense of both market and economic performance, so long as inflation remains a threat. Given this hawkish tone, the market narrative has morphed from fears of inflation to a fed driven recession. As a result, the move in the bond market has been swift with the 10-year treasury yield peaking at approximately 3.5% in June to today’s level of 2.7% (lower rates = higher bond prices). This positive bond performance reflects the consensus view that inflation is temporary (2023 CPI forecasts are approximately 3.6% vs the second quarter’s 8.7% CPI reading) and could allow the Fed to adjust their higher interest rate trajectory downward. The Fed also remains confident that a soft landing is achievable, and a recession avoidable.
Investors seem less convinced however, given the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing before, and so it’s no surprise equity markets entered a bear market over the quarter, and currently remain in a technical correction (defined as losses greater than -10%). To better assess future performance, we closely monitor earnings results to understand how companies are navigating these economic trends. With nearly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, the results have been better than expected, but still the EPS beat rate and magnitude of beats (actual vs expectation) remain below 5-year averages. This tells us companies are finding today’s economic conditions more challenging than the recent past. Consumer sectors including marketing, retail, autos and textiles posted the 2nd worst performance vs other sectors while the Financials sector saw the greatest challenges with aggregate EPS falling by -15% year-over-year. Wall Street analysts have started to revise S&P 500 forward growth estimates lower, a trend which we expect will continue for several quarters ahead. The forward (12-month blended) P/E ratio of 17.5 times remains 1.5 multiple points above the long-term average which potentially suggests risks may not be fully priced in.
In terms of the S&P/TSX Composite, after declining nearly -14% in Q2 as recession fears around the world jeopardized the global demand outlook, its’ since rebounded over 4.0%. Still, valuation remains below longer-term averages at 11.8x forward earnings with the heavier weighted Financials and Energy sectors trading at 9.5x and 7.9x, respectively. TSX earnings expectations have stalled as of late but downward revisions are lagging US and European counterparts. Additionally, the domestic labour market remains tight which has allowed the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive rate hike path to curb soaring inflation. For most of 2022 the TSX has benefitted from surging commodity prices but an economic slowdown in China resulting from its commitment to a zero-Covid policy and a potential global recession could prove to be a challenge for the Canadian market.
Equity markets on average lose 30% of their value in recession led bear markets. If we use this as a potential road map, it suggests the S&P 500 could have further to fall. Using past performance as a forward-looking tool however is an imperfect technique and used in isolation of what’s happening today can often mislead.
Accounting for today’s backdrop, we come up with three scenarios of varying probabilities. The first is the most optimistic and includes an engineered soft landing by the Fed, meaning no recession and inflation cools. A less optimistic view is the fed tames inflation with higher interest rates but tips the economy into a mild-to-moderate recession. The outcome would be consumer spending and corporate hiring slow as a result of tighter financial conditions, and therefore financial results are negatively impacted. The least optimistic scenario is one where stagflationary conditions emerge as inflation continues to accelerate at the expense of growth despite higher interest rates, in other words the Fed loses control. The net result would be similar to our second scenario but with much more dire results in terms of unemployment, household spending and impacts to corporate profitability. While we don’t rule out any of the above scenarios completely, we assign the highest probability to the second one where macro economic issues get resolved at some point in the future, but the full effects of inflation and a possible recession have yet to be priced into the market. Currently, this view translates into a slight underweight equity position versus our benchmark with a tilt towards low volatility and defensive strategies along with an overlay of value and dividend paying securities. In other words, we’ve de-risked the portfolios relative to our benchmark to manage potential downside risks but remain meaningfully invested an on absolute basis. As always, time in the market tends to overcome trying to time the market, and so employing a strategic and diversified strategy is often the most prudent approach.
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Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. - Preferred life insurance solutions - corporations
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To learn more about our dividend policy and participating account management policy, please visit www.equitable.ca/en/already-a-client/dividend-information/
Dividends are not guaranteed and are paid at the sole discretion of the Board of Directors. Dividends may be subject to taxation. Dividends will vary based on the actual investment returns in the participating account as well as mortality, expenses, lapse, claims experience, taxes and other experience of the participating block of policies. -
Roll out the red carpet for a refreshed Term!
We are pleased to announce that updates to our Term life insurance solution are now live! We believe that Term life insurance can deliver value to clients at every stage of their life journeys. Be it at renewal or at conversion, Term is a flexible and affordable life insurance solution for clients today and into tomorrow.
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View our Transition Rules for all the details on processing your applications.
We’ve also updated our illustration tool:
● New Desktop illustration software
Want to learn more?
Contact your Equitable wholesaler anytime!
® or ™ denotes a trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada. -
Message from Equitable President and CEO Fabien Jeudy
I’m pleased to share our new brand with you. It’s an expression of our renewed purpose and commitment to work together, with our partners, to focus exclusively on our clients, protecting today and preparing tomorrow.
Our commitment to you
The new Equitable® brand signifies our focus on making it even easier to do business with us. To continuously refresh our products to meet the evolving needs of Canadians. And to strengthen our partnerships that enable growth and positive outcomes. The result is an uncompromising commitment to our clients, our partners, our advisors, and our people.
A year of transitioning to our new brand
Over the next year, we’ll make the transition away from our legacy look as our new look starts to emerge. We’ll invest in building more brand awareness so that together we can help even more Canadians. What you should know is that no matter old or new, our commitment is always focused on our clients, together with our partners.
Join us in the journey
We’ll provide more details on the changes we’re making, and we welcome you to join in the journey. I encourage you to reach out to your Equitable point of contact or visit equitable.ca to learn more.
Why Equitable? The Power of Together.
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Equitable’s New Logo.
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Sincerely,
Fabien Jeudy
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Wrapping up 2025 with our new term rates!
Among the most competitive in the market
Equitable® is wrapping up 2025 with our new term rates effective November 22, 2025. Many Canadians view life insurance as unaffordable, with 34% saying cost is the top reason they go without coverage.1 Our new term rates are designed to help address these concerns. They offer flexible and affordable options to help clients get the protection they need.
1 Investment Executive at Survey finds affordability, lack of trust, barriers to buying life insurance | Investment Executive
What’s New:
Updated premium rates for Term coverage, included on:• Term 10, Term 20 and Term 30/65 plans• Including Term Riders on Critical Illness (CI), Whole Life (WL), Equitable Generations® Universal Life (UL) and Equation Generation® IV Universal Life
View our Transition Rules for all the details on processing your applications.
New term rate highlights*:
*Effective November 22, 2025. Our term rates ranked among the best on LifeGuide when compared against top carriers in key markets.





Check out our new term rates for yourself. Run quotes monthly (versus annually) for our best term rates.
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Making it easy to do business with us
Online Term illustration now auto-populates the application
We have added a new online illustration for Equitable® Term life insurance illustrations that automatically populates the fields in your Term application.
We’ve designed the online illustration to be intuitive so you can fill in client details with ease.
● Select term plans and coverages of choice, then get an illustration report in minutes.
● You can save your web illustration progress at any time and view it from the online application dashboard.
● We’ve combined the illustration with our online application to make the process seamless. The illustration details you provide will auto-populate in the fields needed to complete the application.
New: You can create a term illustration without logging in to EquiNet.
We are taking another step in the journey towards enhancing the ways we do business.
Check out this update on the new Illustrations page on EquiNet®!
Learn more
Have further questions? Your Equitable Wholesaler is here to help!
® and TM denote trademarks of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
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