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Market Comments - October 2024
Key Takeaways for Q3· Central banks eased monetary policy by reducing their target interest rates.
· Bond markets performed very well during the quarter as interest rates fell.
· Risk markets experienced some volatility, but stock markets had robust returns.
· Canadian stocks outperformed U.S. stocks in Q3, while the sources of returns in the U.S. market were more balanced and diversified than in the first half of the year.
Views From the Frontline
Bond Markets: During the third quarter, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. moved significantly lower as markets anticipated that the Bank of Canada would continue – and the Federal Reserve would start – cutting rates. Additionally, the expectation became that the central banks would end up lowering rates more aggressively than previously assumed. That’s because inflation data has softened sufficiently to give the central banks the scope to ease policy, and other economic data, especially from the labour market, indicated the need for them to ease policy in order to prevent economic activity from cooling too much. For instance, in Canada, inflation slowed to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, while the labour market showed warning signs with the unemployment rate rising to 6.6%. The Bank of Canada cut its target interest rate by 0.25% at each of its July and September meetings. Governor Macklem indicated that if growth does not materialize as expected, “it could be appropriate to move faster on interest rates”. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve kicked off its easing cycle by cutting its target rate by 0.50% in September. The growing signs of a cooling labour market amidst slowing inflation motivated the larger-than-typical move. That said, consumer spending in the U.S. continued to be strong, and GDP is still tracking a healthy growth rate.
While interest rates fell, bonds returns were also boosted by solid behaviour of corporate bonds. Credit spreads (i.e. the risk premium for corporate bonds versus government bonds) continued to grind lower over the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels that are largely consistent with the tight post-pandemic levels experienced in 2021. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continues to be very robust, with $29B (billion) in new issuance during the quarter, resulting in an impressive $119B issued year-to-date, a new record. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.
Stock Markets: In the U.S., we continue to caution against heavily concentrated sources of market returns and emphasize a diversified portfolio. Last quarter, diversification proved essential as a multitude of factors heightened market volatility. These factors – which included the unwind of the yen carry trade, investor reactions to mixed mega-cap earnings, and concerns of a slowing labour market – drove investors away from mega-cap technology names and into defensive areas of the market. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates by 0.5%, sources of investment returns continued to broaden as investors rotated into economically-sensitive baskets. Underpinned by decelerating inflation and easing monetary policy, we believe the rotation away from the mega-cap tech names is likely to persist and we continue to emphasize portfolio diversification. In Canada, high-quality, high-yielding businesses – composed of the financial sector and non-financial dividend payers – outperformed over the quarter as investors rewarded companies that demonstrated a strong ability to sustain dividends, as well as greater efficiency generating profits. While we continue to favour these businesses, we have taken profit on our financial sector dividend exposure after a sharp reversion in the premium between value creation and current yield. In addition, Chinese officials introduced a wave of stimulus to revitalize growth, bringing life back to the metals and luxury goods sectors. Accordingly, Canadian and European equities have benefitted recently.
Market Update
Rates & Credit: In Q3, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. decreased significantly, with front-end interest rates declining faster than long-end interest rates amid cooling inflation and a weakening labour market. As a result, the FTSE Canada Universe Index posted a positive return of 4.7%. Coincidentally, Canadian corporate bonds and government bonds each also generated returns of 4.7%, totally in-line with the Universe index. On the other hand, despite short-term interest rates falling much more than long-term interest rates, the higher price sensitivity of long-dated bonds had them outperform shorter-dated bonds, with the Long-Term bond index up 5.8% while the Short-Term bond index gained 3.4%. Similarly, within corporate bonds, industries that have longer-dated debt (e.g. energy and infrastructure) outperformed those that tend to have shorter-dated debt (e.g. real estate and financials).
Equity Overview: Underpinned by decelerating inflation data and easing monetary policy – including the outsize 50-basis cut from the Federal Reserve – prospects for an economic soft landing increased over the quarter. That favourable outlook spurred global equity markets to all-time highs, with previously lagging areas of the market narrowing the performance gap compared to the U.S. mega-cap technology names that had led returns in the first half of the year. Canadian equities outperformed their U.S. counterpart last quarter, rising 10.5% as strength in the banking and materials sectors pushed the index higher. Major developed markets from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) were more subdued, gaining 0.9% (in local currency terms) last quarter. That said, grand expectations for further interest rate cuts in the U.S. pushed the greenback to its lowest level in over a year, boosting EAFE returns to over 7% in U.S. dollar terms. Within the U.S., sources of market returns broadened as well, with investors rotating out of concentrated AI companies and into more economically sensitive businesses.
U.S. Fundamentals: Outside of the Magnificent 7, investors are interpreting downside earnings surprises as a normalization of financial performance rather than a deterioration. For example, McDonald’s share price rallied over 17% into quarter-end following its earnings release despite announcing declining sales and contracting earnings per share. Within the AI-ecosystem, investors are beginning to look for opportunities beyond chip manufacturers, such as nuclear energy providers. At an index level, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000 index, excluding the Mag-7, posted a median earnings growth of nearly 9% year-over-year, expanding from the ~6% witnessed in Q2. Furthermore, the number of companies from this group reporting positive earnings growth grew to approximately 67%, up from 60% in the prior quarter. In our view, the ongoing broadening of earnings strength outside of the Mag-7 can provide tailwinds to current market rotations into previously left-behind companies. Within the mega-cap tech space, investors have become more discriminant than in prior quarters, rewarding businesses with greater success monetizing their AI-investments. This trend was evident through the divergence of returns from IBM and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) following their quarterly earnings.
U.S. Quant Factors: Decelerating U.S. inflation data prompted a rotation out of highly concentrated areas of the market (growth) and into more economically-sensitive companies (value). Then, concerns of a slowing U.S. labour market and the unwind of the yen carry trade increased market volatility, leading investors to shelter their positions by reallocating to low volatility. As the quarter progressed, expectations of easing monetary policy and stabilizing employment data helped calm return to the market and the rotation from mega-cap tech sector resumed, albeit at a lesser pace. Notably, this “catch-up” trade also benefitted dividend-paying companies, particularly those with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, as investors favoured those more mature operations.
Canadian Fundamentals: Investors returned to the Canadian market after Canadian companies showed signs of recovery last quarter with earnings expanding by more than expected. With inflation showing clearer signs of deceleration and the outlook regarding the path of monetary policy increasingly implying lower interest rates going forward, investors are allocating toward high-quality, dividend-paying companies. From a sector level, surging gold prices provided a tailwind for Canadian miners, helping the materials sector outperform over the quarter. More recently, the materials sector has benefitted from elevated base metal prices following the arrival of Chinese stimulus. In contrast, oil prices declined over 16% last quarter as fears of an oversupplied market swelled following speculation that OPEC+ would look to dial back production cuts. As a result, investors looked past lingering geopolitical risks and the energy sector underperformed.
Canadian Quant Factors: Amid an improving Canadian macroeconomic backdrop and clearer outlook on the trajectory of monetary policy, dividend-yielding businesses became sought after. More specifically, investors continued to emphasize dividend sustainability last quarter, rewarding dividend-paying businesses that demonstrated strong financial performance and the ability to support future payouts. For example, the major Canadian banks sharply outperformed in Q3 after reporting earnings growth that mostly exceeded expectations. In essence, investors have become more constructive on this high-yielding group as their ability to create value relative to financing costs improves.
Downloadable Copy
Mark Warywoda, CFA
VP, Public Portfolio ManagementIan Whiteside, CFA, MBA
AVP, Public Portfolio ManagementJohanna Shaw, CFA
Director, Portfolio ManagementJin Li
Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA
Senior Analyst, Equity
Andrew Vermeer
Senior Analyst, Credit
Elizabeth Ayodele
Analyst, Credit
Francie Chen
Analyst, Rates
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
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Equitable Life Group Benefits Bulletin - April 2021
In this issue:
- Alberta biosimilar coverage changes*
- New Humira biosimilars approved*
- Saskatchewan and Manitoba delist biologics for some conditions*
Update: Alberta biosimilar coverage changes take effect*
In our November 2020 edition of eNews, we announced we are changing coverage for some biologic drugs in Alberta in response to the province’s Biosimilar Initiative.
As of March 15, 2021, several originator biologic drugs are no longer covered for plan members in Alberta. Plan members taking these biologics are required to switch to the biosimilar versions of these drugs to maintain eligibility under their Equitable Life plan.
Affected drugs and conditions – Remicade remains eligible
We initially announced that Remicade would be among the biologic drugs no longer covered in Alberta.
We have since determined a method to maintain ongoing eligibility of Remicade while reducing or eliminating any Coordination of Benefit risk associated with the provincial change. As such, Remicade will continue to be eligible for coverage.
Communication to plan members and plan sponsors
We communicated directly with affected claimants in January 2021 to allow them ample time to change their prescriptions and avoid any interruptions in their treatment or their coverage. The transition to biosimilars, when required, has been smooth and continues to be successful.
Plan sponsors were notified even earlier to allow ample time to opt-out of this change. The vast majority have accepted the changes and are benefiting from a smooth plan member transition.
Looking ahead
We are one of the few insurers taking a comprehensive and proactive response to the Alberta Biosimilars Initiative. We will continue to monitor developments related to the coverage of biologics in Alberta and other provinces and will continue to take steps to protect your clients’ drug plans.
Questions?
If you have any questions about this change, please contact your Group Account Executive or myFlex Sales Manager.
New Humira biosimilars approved*
Beginning in February, Health Canada approved seven new biosimilars for Humira, a biologic drug for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, Crohn's disease and many other conditions. Most of these biosimilars have already been launched and are available in pharmacies.
Humira is one of the highest ranked drugs in terms of total annual cost. All the Humira biosimilars are priced 40% lower than Humira and represent a savings opportunity for private drug plans.
BC Pharmacare has already announced that, effective October 7, 2021, all claimants for most conditions will only be eligible for Humira biosimilars.
We have implemented national controls to ensure the use of Humira biosimilars for new claimants. As with all biosimilar programs at Equitable Life, they will continuously evolve such that our clients are provided appropriate risk protection.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba change coverage for some biologics*
The Saskatchewan government recently announced that, effective March 1, 2021, new patients will no longer be eligible for coverage of Enbrel under its public plan. New patients will only be eligible for biosimilar versions of Enbrel.
Similarly, the Manitoba government announced changes to its tiered biologics program. Currently, claimants are expected to try biosimilars listed under Tier 1 of the program before they can be considered for coverage under the public plan for either Enbrel or Remicade, which are Tier 2 drugs. Effective April 1, 2021, Brenzys, an Enbrel biosimilar, has been added to Tier 1 for some additional medical conditions. As well, Avsola has been added as another Tier 1 biosimilar for Remicade. These changes further expand the Manitoba government’s utilization of biosimilars as preferred therapies over originator biologics.
Biosimilars are highly similar to the drugs they are based on and Health Canada considers them to be equally safe and effective for approved conditions.
Equitable Life actively monitors and investigates all biosimilar policy changes and the ongoing evolution of biosimilar drugs entering Canada. We will keep you informed of any impact on private drug plans and how we are responding.
*Indicates content that will be shared with your clients
- Compliance Resources
- Marketing Materials Whole Life
- Group - Life, accident and critical illness
- [pdf] New Forms to Comply with AML & CRS Changes
- Life Insurance Death Claim
- Critical Illness - More Covered Conditions
- Our service standards - Individual insurance