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EAMG market commentary
March 11, 2022
Since Russia first invaded the Ukraine, there’s been no shortage of headlines and commentaries trying to make sense of the situation. This is a tragedy that from a humanitarian standpoint that can’t be made sense of and our hearts go out to the people of Ukraine and those impacted. From a market standpoint, the common thinking is that geopolitical risks, aka war, historically haven’t been associated with significant corrections in the market. So far, the market reaction has been consistent with the historical experience, with the S&P 500 down only about 1% since the start of the conflict and the S&P/TSX Composite Index up close to 4%, despite the heightened daily volatility.
Given the obvious challenges of predicting how these types of conflicts play out, we look to financial market indicators to give us a better sense of the potential risks in the market. And in this respect, the most obvious indicator is oil. Since the start of the Russian invasion, oil has rallied roughly 18%, which is even more impressive considering it had already rallied 21% from the start of the year to the beginning of the conflict.
While we don’t know what will happen to energy markets over the coming weeks, we do know that oil shocks can result in higher inflation and sometimes lower growth. Inflation was already rising, although strategists generally viewed this as temporary on the expectation that the covid related supply chain disruptions and reopening pressures were the primary causes that would eventually self-correct. But as the Russian-Ukraine conflict intensifies, consensus views are moving towards inflation becoming more structural in nature. There are growing risks this will change consumer behaviour, causing inflation to be longer lasting than initially expected. Much of this has to do with the fact that as the world’s 3rd largest exporter of oil, Russia has taken a material amount of oil production capacity offline, resulting in significantly higher oil and gas prices. This also explains the significant outperformance of energy equities, and the broader S&P/TSX Composite Index vs US counterparts on a YTD basis.
While there are beneficiaries to higher oil prices, the consumer certainly isn’t one of them given gas prices reflect movements in the oil market. So far in 2022 prices paid at the pump have gone up 30%, one of the fastest paces on record. This, in addition to food price increases, will put strain on the consumer as higher bills divert dollars away from discretionary spending and potentially slow economic growth.
The other factor we’re closely watching is the overall health of the European economy, to which Russia supplies about 40% of Europe’s natural gas, 25% of their oil imports and 45% of their coal imports. While the European Commission has indicated plans to cuts their dependence on Russian energy well before 2030, the short-term impacts will be costly as Europe and other global markets see higher energy prices follow. As well, food prices will likely become an issue for the region given the interruption of supply out of the Black Sea which has driven grain and oilseed prices to levels not seen since 2008. Investors to date have priced in significant risk, evidenced by the performance of the Stoxx 50 which is down 17% YTD, one of the worst performing markets across the global universe.
While commodity prices are just one indicator, we are mindful that they could be telling us inflation may be more persistent than previously expected. From a long-term perspective this hasn’t changed our view of the equity market. As a result of potential near term impacts however, we have reduced our exposure to European markets in favour of the Canadian market and as well we have added inflation and risk hedges with sector allocations to energy, consumer staples and utilities, while still maintaining our overall long-term target levels to equities. There is no direct exposure to Russia in any of the three Equitable Life Active Balanced Portfolios which includes Equitable Life Active Balanced Growth Portfolio Select, Equitable Life Active Balanced Portfolio Select and Equitable Life Active Balanced Income Portfolio Select.
Downloadable CopyAny statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.
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Important update regarding all paramedical appointments
Update regarding parameds for NEW and EXISTING cases:
- In the absence of Parameds, the preferred method is to complete the medical questions in EZComplete
- If you didn’t complete the new medical information, then complete the Health Information Form #1878
- If you are unable to complete the 1878 Health Information Form, then you can order a Video EPara through Dynacare or through Equitable
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Equitable Life has made the decision to temporarily stop all face-to-face field service appointments effective immediately to ensure the protection of both our Clients and Examiners. All appointments will be cancelled by ExamOne. Dynacare has already cancelled their appointments.
We are doing this to support social distancing as requested by the Federal and Provincial governments. We are actively working on a plan to provide viable options in the absence of face-to-face paramedical service appointments. This will be communicated shortly.
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COVID-19 Vaccinations and your Equitable Life of Canada Insurance Coverage
Equitable Life of Canada would like to reassure our policyholders that getting vaccinated for COVID-19 will not negatively impact your life or health insurance coverage.
Being vaccinated for COVID-19 would have no impact on any claim made under an insurance policy or group benefits plan with Equitable Life of Canada. Your Equitable Life policies provide life and health insurance based on the conditions outlined in your contract with us. Our contracts do not include limitations related to adverse reactions to vaccines.
Equitable Life will continue to follow the guidance and recommendations from the Canadian government to protect the health of Canadians, and we fully support government-approved vaccines as one of the most effective ways to protect yourself from serious illness or death from COVID-19. -
Equitable Life Savings & Retirement Webinar Series features Payout Annuities
In 2021, Equitable Life’s S&R team will spotlight various aspects of our competitive fund line up and product offerings. Each webinar in the series will feature a new topic. The series will also give advisors an opportunity to:
- learn more about various products and product features,
- hear from industry professionals,
- learn about investment strategies; and so much more.
Join your host, Joseph Trozzo, Investment Sales Vice President as he welcomes Nicole Lemon, Product Manager, Savings and Retirement, Equitable Life of Canada for a discussion on Equitable Life’s Payout Annuities.
Learn more -
Short and long-term income solutions from Equitable Life
Do you have clients without a company pension plan, close to retiring and worried about outliving their savings? Have you talked to them about annuities? Maybe it’s time you did.
A payout annuity from Equitable Life® provides regular guaranteed income in retirement. Your clients can choose from
- Life Annuity – guaranteed income for life
- Joint Life Annuity – guaranteed income for two lives
- Term Certain – guaranteed income for a specific period of time (5 to 30 years)
- Term Certain to Age 90 – guaranteed income until age 90
There’s no need for your clients to worry about stock market fluctuations or changing interest rates, what better time to add an annuity to your client’s retirement savings strategy.
Payout annuities are an excellent solution for
- Converting your savings into retirement income
- Covering predictable fixed monthly expenses
- Providing lifetime income
For more information on payout annuities, please click here.
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Equitable Life Savings & Retirement Webinar Series featuring Payout Annuities.
This month, Equitable Life is featuring a discussion on Payout Annuities. Hear why payout annuities provide a guaranteed income that is worry-free and receive insights into how a payout annuity can fit into a client’s retirement plan.
Join your host, Shannon Labby, Regional Vice President, National Investment Sales as she welcomes Nicole Lemon, Product Manager, Savings and Retirement, Equitable Life of Canada for a discussion on Equitable Life’s Payout Annuities.
Learn more
Continuing Education Credits
This webinar has been submitted for continuing education (CE) approval with the Insurance Council of Manitoba and Alberta Insurance Council for all provinces excluding Quebec. Upon approval, you will be sent an email notification to come back to the webinar presentation console to download your personalized certificate from the tool bar. To be eligible for CE credits, you must register individually, watch the webcast in full and complete a short quiz. This webcast is available in English only. -
The Equitable Life FHSA is coming!
We want to help clients save money for their first home. We’re working on offering the Equitable Life® First Home Savings Account!
A First Home Savings Account (FHSA) is a registered plan allowing prospective first-time home buyers to save for their first home tax-free (up to certain limits).
Highlights:- Must be a Canadian resident
- Minimum of 18 years of age
- Annual contribution limit of $8,000 with a lifetime limit of $40,000
- Contributions are tax deductible (like an RRSP)
- Qualifying withdrawals are tax-free (like a TFSA)
- Must be a first-time home buyer (has not owned a home in which they lived during the current or preceding four calendar years)
- Unused FHSA proceeds can be transferred on a tax-deferred basis to an RRSP or RRIF
For more information contact your Regional Investment Sales Representative.
Date posted: April 11, 2023
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