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EAMG - Macro Tear Sheet – Recent Market Volatility Summary By separating the noise from the signals, we believe the rotation away from the mega-cap technology names is likely to continue. Recent market volatility, triggered by a multitude of factors that include the unwind of the carry trade, investor reactions to mixed mega-cap earnings, and U.S. economic data, may present more investment opportunities for long-term outperformance. Recall over the past year that the majority of U.S. stock market performance came from a limited number of mega-cap technology companies and, in our view, moving forward it will be prudent to analyze the source of returns as rapid market rotations may punish overly-concentrated portfolios.

Inflation Slows (July 11) – Headline U.S. inflation readings increased 3.0% year-over-year in June, decelerating from May (3.3%). With prices slowing ahead of forecasts but economic growth remaining strong, investors became more confident regarding the prospects of an economic soft landing.
Outcome: market strength broadened with traders rotating out of highly concentrated areas of the market (“Fabulous 5”) and into more economically sensitive stocks that had been left behind.

• Big Tech Earnings (July 23 – Aug 1) – High profile mega-cap technology companies – including many members of the Magnificent 7 – reported earnings growth that generally surpassed expectations as margins remained healthy. That said, investors were more focused on spending towards AI-initiatives, rewarding businesses with greater success translating their AI investments into higher sales.
Outcome: this trend is evident through the divergence of returns from IBM and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) after releasing their quarterly earnings. The limited number of companies that contributed to the returns of the S&P 500 failed to impress investors, extending the rotation into other areas of the market.

• Caution is Brewing – Following a strong rally of economically sensitive pockets of the market, notably a breakout of returns from U.S. small cap companies, the low volatility factor, which tends to outperform during times of stress, moved in sync with the small caps’ strength.
Outcome: with a lack of fundamental justification supporting small cap performance, markets showed signs of caution.

• Central Bank Decisions (July 31)– The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged during its July meeting, in line with market expectations, reiterating committee members’ need for greater confidence that inflation would continue to subside. That said, policymakers signaled a reduction in policy rates could be a possibility in the coming meetings. In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased its key interest rate while also announcing plans to scale back bond purchases – restrictive monetary policy maneuvers aimed at backstopping the depreciating Japanese currency.
Outcome: the bifurcation between the BoJ and most other major central banks sparked a sharp appreciation of the yen and a rapid unwind of the yen carry trade (see below for explanation).

• Growth Scare (August 2)– In early August, a downside surprise in U.S. nonfarm payrolls (114k actual versus 175k expected) and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, higher than the 4.1% that was expected and up from 3.5% a year ago triggered concerns of a cooling labor market.
Outcome: speculation swelled surrounding the pace of rate cuts with market participants expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates as much as 125bps over the next 3 policy meetings, up from 50-75bps as of the end of July. Against this backdrop, the ongoing unwind of the yen carry trade accelerated.

Yen Carry Trade Explained
• Simply put, investors have been borrowing Japanese yen – a low yielding currency – to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets. The primary risks in a carry trade can include the uncertainty of foreign exchange rates (if unhedged), as well as changes to expectations of the underlying yields, among other risks. Over the last 2 decades, the BoJ has implemented an ultra-low interest rate monetary policy to combat deflation and stimulate growth. Furthermore, investors were emboldened by the Japanese yen’s ~53% depreciation versus the U.S. dollar over the last 10 years. With the BoJ hiking its key interest rate while also announcing plans to scale back bond purchases, the yen rallied abruptly. Consequently, highly leveraged investors have had to exit their long positions in riskier assets to repay their borrowed yen exposure.

Peak Carry Trade Unwind – Buying Opportunity
• Peak carry trade unwind, which implies heightened panic levels, has historically created an attractive buying environment. That said, we are focused on companies that have demonstrated robust earnings growth and healthy leverage. Given the unprecedented level of market concentration over the last year, we view the unwind of the carry trade as another catalyst for investors to rotate out of the “Fabulous 5”.

Our Findings:
We found that the peak unwind of the carry trade may be a buying opportunity. At present, the current level of the unwind is similar to many notable market bottoms, including the Great Financial Crisis (2008), the European debt crisis (2010), the oil crash (2014), the subsequent emerging market crisis (2015), the Covid-19 crash (2020), and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (2023). We assessed the degree of the unwind by looking at the one-month implied volatility between three currency pairs, U.S. Dollar/Yen, Australian Dollar/Yen, and Euro/Yen. Implied volatility is a measure of the expected future volatility of the underlying assets over a given time period. Amid strong earnings growth and steady margins from quality businesses within the U.S. market, the fundamental backdrop suggests that businesses outside the concentrated AI-darlings may drive the next leg of market returns.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable^® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

Market Commentary January 2025

Key Takeaways

Full year 2024:

Despite reductions of policy-setting interest rates by central banks, yields on longer-term bonds finished the year higher than they started the year.
Positive risk appetite helped corporate bonds perform well, led by lower-quality issuers.
Global equity markets posted robust returns, with U.S. equities outperforming other developed markets, driven by heavy concentration into the ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks.

Fourth Quarter:

Central banks continued to ease monetary policy in Q4, with the Bank of Canada cutting its policy interest rate more aggressively than did the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The Republican victory across both the executive and legislative branches in the U.S. ignited expectations of economic growth, pushing bond yields and stock prices higher.
Risk sentiment helped corporate bonds continue to outperform government bonds.
Markets remained volatile: while North American stock markets continued to outperform most international indices, Canadian stocks managed to outperform U.S. stocks in Q4, as sources of returns in the U.S. narrowed into year-end.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace in Q4. The rate of inflation continued to slow but remained above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, as the unemployment rate has remained low compared to historical norms. A decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party further boosted expectations for continued growth. The return of the President-elect’s old tactics of threatening tariffs to influence trade, security, and drug control re-introduced some economic uncertainty, particularly regarding the potential return of inflationary pressures. Those concerns prompted the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its policy easing, as it lowered rates by just 0.25% at each of its two meetings in Q4, following the 0.50% cut in September. Throughout 2024, the Fed reduced rates by a total of 100 basis points, from 5.50% to 4.50%. Nonetheless, bond yields were significantly higher for most maturity terms during the fourth quarter as the market priced in not just a stronger economy than had been the expectation during Q3, implying less interest rate cuts by the Fed, but also growing concerns about the government deficit.

In Canada, growth remained positive during 2024 and improved a bit to close the year, but continued to fall short of the Bank of Canada’s expectations. Similarly, inflation came in lower than expected and below the Bank’s 2% target. The labour market continued to soften for much of the year, with employment growth falling short of labour force growth. The weakness in the labour market and economy, along with tamed inflation, prompted the Central Bank to cut rates at the pace of 50 basis points at each of its two meetings in Q4. For the full year, the Bank of Canada ended up lowering its policy rate by a total of 175 basis points, from 5% to 3.25%. The market has been expecting the Bank of Canada to need to continue cutting rates due to slower economic growth in Canada, but the fear of a possible trade war with the U.S. has made the economic outlook somewhat murkier.

Bond Markets: During the quarter, yields on mid- to long-term bonds in Canada rose in sympathy with rising bond yields in the U.S. However, bond yields in Canada rose to a lesser extent, and yields on shorter-term bonds were actually little changed over the quarter. The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index was basically flat during Q4 and posted a return of 4.2% for the full year. Although interest rates rose, credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk) continued to grind lower, helping corporate bonds post positive overall returns in the quarter. Tightening credit spreads reflected the generally positive risk-on tone to the market, despite some volatility. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed better than higher-quality A-rated bonds. Credit spreads have now generally fallen back to levels similar to those experienced in 2021, when markets did quite well after the pandemic. The on-going appetite of investors for the extra yield offered by corporate bonds over government bonds is indicated not just by falling credit spreads, but also by investors’ enthusiasm to support the primary issuance market. Corporate bond supply continued to be very robust in the quarter, with $30 billion in new issuance, resulting in a record-breaking year with $141 billion of new issuance in 2024. Nonetheless, on balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.

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Stock Markets – Overview: Trump’s presidential victory and the Republican party’s ‘red sweep’ in the Senate and House of Representatives sparked optimism surrounding economic growth and a new era of U.S. exceptionalism. As a result, North American equity markets extended their rally in Q4, capping off a year of robust returns. The S&P 500 returned 2.4%, bringing its year-to-date return to 25%. Within the U.S., the broadening of returns paused during the quarter as the chase for growth intensified, with mega-cap growth names like Tesla driving performance. Canadian equities surprisingly outperformed the U.S. market over the quarter, returning 3.8% in Q4, despite threats of widespread tariff negotiations looming on the horizon that could negatively impact Canadian corporate fundamentals. At a sector level, strength in the technology, financials, and energy sectors more than offset weakness in telecommunication companies as well as in the materials sector. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) underperformed last quarter as deteriorating Chinese growth prospects and weak economic growth in the Eurozone weighed on equities. Notably, foreign investors of U.S. denominated securities benefitted from a rebounding U.S. dollar with the dollar index adding over 7.6% in Q4.

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U.S. Equities: U.S. equities remain supported by resilient margins and strong corporate earnings growth with over 70% of businesses surpassing bottom-line expectations last quarter. We remain attentive to the broadening of earnings performance and note that this trend has continued, albeit at a normalized pace versus prior quarters. More specifically, our work shows that members of the Russell 1000, excluding the Magnificent 7, posted median earnings growth of 6% last quarter, down from nearly 9% in Q3 but comparable to Q2 (6%). Looking forward to 2025, analysts continue to forecast U.S. exceptionalism, with forecasts of ~12% earnings growth.

Following Trump’s presidential victory, stocks with greater sensitivity to the U.S. economy, such as small cap businesses, benefitted from expectations of domestically focused growth initiatives. However, stubborn inflation and expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the trend of broadening sources of returns pause into the end of the year. Instead, market concentration reaccelerated with investors rushing back towards mega-cap growth stocks. In fact, Tesla – which is approximately 2% of the S&P 500 Index by market cap – contributed approximately one-third of the total index return in Q4, while the Mag 7 as a group contributed over 100% of total returns. In other words, U.S. large cap companies excluding the Magnificent 7 declined in aggregate last quarter.

Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of cooling inflation and below-trend growth, the Bank of Canada continued to loosen monetary policy. As a result, Canadian companies
showed signs of improving efficiency with return on equity – a gauge of corporate profitability – improving versus prior quarters. Under these conditions, investors remained focused on higher quality, high-dividend paying companies – particularly within the financial sector. Relative to prior quarters, this group witnessed greater contribution out of non-bank financials (such as asset managers and insurance companies), as the premium investors were willing to pay for Canadian banks remained elevated. Across other sectors, the energy sector had a positive quarter as the price of oil stabilized, but falling prices for raw industrials pushed the materials sector lower.

Bottom line: U.S. political developments and subsequent growth expectations dominated market sentiment last quarter. As a result, investors dialed back rate cut expectations and bond yields moved higher. In equity markets, the potential for an era of higher-for-longer rates prompted a resumption of investors crowding into growth stocks. Going forward, we remain cautious of elevated valuations and continue to prioritize diversified sources of returns with a long-term outlook. Nonetheless, despite rich valuations, our base case remains that investors’ enthusiasm for equities will persist in the near-term and stocks should continue to outperform bonds.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

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EAMG Market Commentary January 2024

Rates & Credit – Interest rates decreased sharply in Q4 as the market priced in aggressive interest rate cuts by central banks in 2024. The prospect of lower interest rates also drove a strong risk-on tone to the market, with the risk premium on corporate bonds grinding tighter as prospects for a “soft landing” improved. The rally in interest rates resulted in the best quarter for bonds over the past 15 years, with the FTSE Canada Universe Index returning 8.3%. Corporate bonds modestly underperformed the Universe Index with a return of 7.3%. The lower return for corporate bonds was primarily driven by the fact that the corporate bond index is less sensitive to interest rate movements (as compared to the government index), partially offset by the risk-on tone to the market. Within corporate bonds, lower-rated BBBs outperformed higher-rated A bonds. Industries with higher interest rate exposure such as infrastructure, energy, and communications outperformed those with less exposure (notably financials and securitization), consistent with the overall shift in the yield curve.

Santa Came to Town – Moving in sync with bonds, global equities jolted higher into the end of the year with cooling inflation data and dovish comments from central bankers. The U.S. market outperformed most regions last quarter with the S&P 500 returning 11.7% in USD terms, bringing the total return in 2023 to 26.3%. The TSX added 8.1% in Q4, boosting the total annual return to 11.8%. Meanwhile, major developed economies from Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) gained 5.0% in local currency terms over the quarter, helping the region produce a 16.8% return from the year prior. Prospects of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve saw the Loonie rally into year-end and resultantly, investors of Canadian dollar securities witnessed enhanced returns. Strong domestic U.S. economic data helped value pockets of the market outperform. That said, this was not a synchronized trend as China’s economic disappointment weighed on the performance of EAFE.

U.S. Fundamentals – Our work shows that investors are shifting their focus away from operating margins and towards the ability to sustain debt levels ahead of renewing debt obligations. Corporate earnings beat modest expectations last quarter, contracting by less-than-expected on a year-over-year basis. Resilient operating margins continue to attract investors into equities. After three consecutive quarters of improving forward earnings guidance, we observed that the number of major companies expecting deteriorating financial performance grew to ~35%. We note that this is a sharp contrast relative to the optimistic run-up in equity valuations. In general, corporate pessimism has been underpinned by concerns for the health of the consumer, increasing wage pressures, and inflation.

U.S. Quant Factors – While mega-cap technology stocks gave back some ground in the second half, crowding into the magnificent 7 remains noticeable with the cap weighted S&P 500 outperforming the equal weighted index by 12.5% last year. That said, value areas of the market – which underperformed through the first three quarters of the year – were top performing companies last quarter as the prospects for an economic “soft-landing” improved with U.S. inflation continuing to ease without substantial deteriorations of employment or output data. Quality-growth businesses initially outperformed as the higher-for-longer narrative continued to drive investors toward large cash-rich companies with stable margins. That said, this basket of companies gave back relative returns into quarter-end as weakness in operating margins persisted, making fundamentals appear stretched. Low volatility stocks (i.e. stocks with lower sensitivity to broad market movement and lower price volatility) rallied to start the quarter before dovish comments from central bankers improved risk-sentiment and ultimately pushed this basket lower on a relative basis. Lastly, dividend growth companies, which include businesses with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends, underperformed the broader index as market participants punished businesses that slowed capital growth projects during the rising interest rate environment. While operating margins have declined, the basket’s strong cash flow and low debt burden may be advantageous if the market’s anticipation of impending interest rate cuts proves to be incorrect or mistimed.

Canadian Fundamentals – Although Canadian companies exceeded bleak forecasts last quarter, earnings continue to contract on a year-over-year basis. Return on equity (ROE) – a gauge of how efficiently a corporation generates profits – continued to decline last quarter while corporate costs of capital remain elevated. In essence, Canadian companies are generating less value relative to their financing cost. Value creation underpins the sustainability of dividend payments, which are a unique and desirable attribute of the Canadian market. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada held its overnight interest rate unchanged with market participants forecasting a higher probability of interest rate cuts in 2024. On the expectations of easing monetary conditions, dividend yields compressed while earnings forecasts improved with analysts predicting that index aggregate earnings will grow 6% to 8% in 2024. At a sector level, the energy industry’s financial performance normalized – in line with expectations – as weakening oil demand expectations overshadowed geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, ultimately pushing crude prices ~21% lower last quarter. The industrials and financials sectors beat expectations, helping offset softer-than-expected results from the consumer staples and technology sectors.

Canadian Quant Factors – The Canadian banks underperformed for most of the year as they reported increasing provisions for nonperforming loans, reflecting forecasts of worsening economic conditions. That said, expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024 helped tame recession fears and eased concerns of slowing loan growth, propelling banks higher in the fourth quarter as they appeared more stable and therefore favourable than prior estimates. The high-quality basket underperformed last quarter as improving risk sentiment in the market reduced the attractiveness of secure companies with lower earnings variability. Furthermore, high dividend payers with solid growth prospects outperformed in the fourth quarter as market participants rewarded companies that demonstrated a strong ability to support future dividends and punished high yielding businesses with less certain financial capabilities.

Views From the Frontline Rates – Interest rates declined sharply in Q4 as inflation continued to trend lower, fears of excess bond supply declined, and the Federal Open Market Committee signaled that the next change to their overnight policy interest rate would likely be lower. Labour market and consumer spending data remain resilient however businesses have indicated slowing across industries, more price-sensitive consumers, rising delinquencies, and concerns about the high cost of debt. Central banks remain committed to achieving their 2% inflation target and most acknowledge that interest rates have likely peaked.

Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) tightened materially over the quarter, with a strong risk on tone to the market as investors priced in lower interest rates in 2024 and a “soft-landing” to economic concerns. Corporate bond supply was well received by the market. On the balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, and as such, we remain cautious on corporate bonds and have a bias towards higher-quality, shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward dynamic as being more favourable.

Equity – In the U.S., we allocated exposure to value names which outperformed over the quarter as the macroeconomic outlook improved on the backdrop of rate cut expectations. Looking forward, we expect that margins will continue to normalize as Covid-induced pent up demand fades. While we do not forecast margins to compress at an alarming rate, we believe sticky wage and input costs will continue to pressure businesses while consumers exhibit further exhaustion. As such, we are shifting our focus toward the balance between company reinvestment in capital projects and upcoming debt refinancing requirements. In line with this view, we favour businesses with stable cash flows and decreased debt loads as we believe they present an attractive contrarian opportunity if soft-landing projections prove to be overstated. Within Canada, we remain attentive to the inverse movements of ROE relative to financing costs over 2023. With the excess between ROE and financing costs compressing, businesses’ ability to create value appears more stretched than earlier in 2023. Therefore, we continue to favour high quality companies in Canada, which is typically defined by high ROE, stable earnings variability, and low financial leverage. Geographically, the U.S. economy appears to be in healthier condition with inflation easing while employment and output data remain stable and hence, our focus will be on capital expenditures. EAFE – which is generally more economically linked to China than North America – contains a large bucket of stable, high-quality businesses that may benefit from any upside economic surprises out of China. Lastly, through the lens of a Canadian investor, the Loonie’s relative value versus other major currencies presents another resource in our investment mandate to derive excess return.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit

ADVISOR USE ONLY

Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

EAMG Market Commentary July 2024
Rates & Credit – In Q2 2024, U.S. inflation and economic growth data was mixed, leading to moderately higher interest rates in the U.S. Meanwhile, in Canada, long-end interest rates were little changed during the quarter, but short-term interest rates fell. That was due to the weaker economic outlook, as well as the Bank of Canada’s decision to reduce its overnight interest rate in June, with anticipation of further monetary policy easing to come. Canadian corporate bonds returned 1.1%, outperforming the 0.8% return of government bonds as well as the 0.9% return for the overall FTSE Canada Universe Bond index. Shorter-dated bonds outperformed longer-dated bonds. Within corporate bonds, lower-rated BBBs outperformed higher-rated A bonds, while industries that have shorter-dated debt (e.g. real estate and financials) outperformed those that tend to have longer-dated debt (e.g. communications and infrastructure).

Equity Overview – Against the backdrop of volatile inflation data and a lack of indication from the Federal Reserve that it was prepared to start cutting interest rates yet, U.S. equity markets decoupled from other regions. Crowding into AI-focused, mega-cap names accelerated in Q2. More specifically, investors defaulted toward the Magnificent 7 to navigate the current period, overlooking broadening earnings breadth and less expensive valuations from the remaining S&P 493. Outside the U.S., equity returns were generally mundane in dollar terms. That said, emerging markets proved to be a bright spot for investors seeking value, as the rebound in heavily discounted Chinese equities helped push frontier markets higher.

U.S. Fundamentals – Corporate earnings continued to surpass expectations last quarter with stable operating margins helping businesses report better-than-expected bottom line results. Investors remain focused on the ability of companies to sustain debt levels ahead of renewing debt obligations, rewarding businesses with a strong ability to generate stable cash flows. Moreover, while prior quarters have witnessed earnings growth that was largely driven by highly profitable mega-cap technology stocks, U.S. markets are witnessing a broadening trend in earnings strength, with previously stunted segments of the market recovering. Our work shows that members of the Russell 1000 index, excluding the Magnificent 7, posted a median earnings growth of about 6% last quarter, with nearly 60% of companies increasing earnings versus the year prior. Furthermore, we observed an increase in the number of major companies that expect improving financial performance to approximately 27%, suggesting that the recovery in earnings breadth may persist.

U.S. Quant Factors – As mentioned, concentration in the equity market drove a surge in valuations as investors continued to chase specific mega-cap technology stocks. In fact, within the Russell 1000 growth factor – which screens for companies whose earnings are expected to grow at an above-average rate relative to the market – the Magnificent 7 totaled nearly 55% of the entire index by quarter-end. In addition, the Nasdaq 100 – which is generally viewed as a technology-biased index – saw the weight of the Magnificent 7 rise to almost 43% of the entire index by the end of the quarter. Furthermore, the equal-weighted S&P 500 underperformed the cap-weighted index by nearly 7% last quarter, bringing the year-to-date divergence to about 10%. With concentration accelerating, the cap-weighted index outperformance has soared past Covid-era levels, a period that saw investors rapidly crowd into profitable technology names due to panic and economic uncertainty. We remain cautious of a severely crowded market that trades near all-time highs as strong performance from 5-7 names distorts the overall stature of market conditions.

Canadian Fundamentals – Although Canadian companies exceeded bleak forecasts, earnings continue to contract on a year-over-year basis. Furthermore, earnings revisions have grinded lower with easing monetary conditions unable to offset concerns of a slowing economic environment. We note the sharp contrast versus the U.S. as the bifurcation of earnings performance widens. The CRB Raw Industrials Index, a measure of price changes of basic commodities, broke out of recent ranges as metals rallied higher despite a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated interest rates. The mining industry benefited from a sustained elevation in prices, helping the materials sector outperform over the quarter. Returns from the heavily-weighted Canadian banks were constrained last quarter with company-specific drivers – including regulatory challenges from TD, and underwhelming U.S. results from BMO – limiting performance. More broadly, the banks continue to build prudent credit provisions to mitigate uncertain economic forecasts and remain well capitalized.

Canadian Quant Factors – With investors remaining attentive to businesses’ ability to create value relative to financing costs, we see value in high quality, dividend-paying companies with strong earnings sustainability and a healthy degree of leverage. Based on our work, investors of the Canadian banks appear well compensated, with the current premium between value creation and current yield remaining compressed. In our opinion, the market has modest expectations regarding prospects for value generation from the banks and, therefore, we believe the industry stands to benefit if the premium reverts closer to historical norms. We also continue to see sources of quality dividend opportunities within certain areas of the energy sector. More specifically, we believe companies that have taken steps to improve their balance sheets through deleveraging efforts, and with improved operating leverage, offer attractive prospects given their stable and high-yielding composition.

Views From the Frontline

Rates – During the first half of the second quarter, interest rates in both Canada and the U.S. increased, continuing the upward momentum from Q1. Higher-than-expected inflation data in the U.S. along with mixed economic growth data caused investors to push out expectations for when the U.S. Federal Reserve would start lowering its interest rate. This trend shifted in the second half of Q2, as positive economic momentum slowed in the U.S. economy and inflation data began to soften. Interest rates in Canada declined more rapidly than in the U.S. due to more benign inflation, a weaker job market, and economic growth remaining below population growth. This economic weakening provided the confidence required for the Bank of Canada to cut rates by 25 basis points in June to 4.75%. The Bank also signaled that if inflation continues to ease and the Bank’s confidence grows that inflation would continue to trend toward its 2% inflation target, it is reasonable to expect further cuts. The second quarter marked a pivotal point for the global policy easing cycle. Sweden, Canada, and the European Central Bank all began lowering their policy rates, and Switzerland made a second rate cut, following one in Q1. The market continues to speculate on the timing of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. Interest rate cut expectations are largely unchanged in Canada since last quarter, with a total of three rate cuts expected throughout 2024. Expectations for the rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve declined slightly, however, to two cuts in 2024.

Credit – The risk premium for corporate bonds (versus government bonds) was largely flat over the quarter, with spreads approaching the tight post-pandemic levels experienced in 2021. Corporate bond supply continues to be very robust, with $41bn in new issuance. Year-to-date, corporate issuance has set a new record, with an impressive $80bn in issuance. On balance, we do not think the current risk premium adequately compensates for downside risk, particularly in longer-dated corporate bonds, and have a bias towards shorter-dated credit where we view the risk / reward trade-off as being more favourable.

Equity – On the backdrop of a heavily concentrated U.S. market rally, we remain cautious of the distortion to market returns from high-flying technology stocks. As a result, we continue to favour a combination of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 for our broad U.S. market exposure. The Dow provides a more diversified exposure to 30 prominent large-cap companies and less concentration in technology relative to the S&P. Broadening earnings strength presents an opportunity for previously out-of-favour names to “catch-up”. In our view, companies outside the Magnificent 7 that have demonstrated robust earnings growth, strong cash flow generation, along with decreased debt loads, are well-positioned to benefit from internal market rotations. As such, we gain exposure to these companies through the quality factor – companies with higher return-on-equity, strong operating performance, and healthy leverage levels – and the dividend growth factor – businesses with a lengthy and established history of increasing dividends.

In Canada, we remain attentive to how efficiently corporations are generating profits relative to financing costs. Looking forward, we continue to monitor the ability of businesses to generate profits given a decline in capital spending. More specifically, we are focused on businesses’ ability to grow and sustain dividends amid the lag between easing monetary conditions and consumption. Due to this, we observe value in higher yielding companies that are higher on the spectrum of quality. Geographically, we maintain our overweight U.S. exposure, underpinned by encouraging U.S. inflation data trends, broadening corporate earnings growth, and normalizing consumption. In addition, sluggish Chinese data and the lack of positive earnings revisions from EAFE tilt the risk-adjusted return profile in favour of the U.S. Lastly, as a Canadian investor, fluctuations in the Loonie’s relative value versus other major currencies continues to present tactical trading opportunities within our investment mandate.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

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[pdf] Pivotal Solutions Fund Facts

Market Commentary April 2025

Key Takeaways for Q1

Economic policy became more uncertain with fluctuating tariff announcements from the U.S. and its trading partners.
Global stocks markets experienced heightened volatility year-to-date, reflecting the negative repercussions of tariffs for highly integrated global economies.
Within U.S. markets, investors rotated out of growth stocks into value and defensive areas of the market.
Bond markets performed well during the quarter as interest rates moved lower.
Most central banks continued to ease monetary policy by reducing their target interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve was a notable exception, electing to wait for greater clarity before lowering rates further.

Economic and Market Update

Economic Summary: In the U.S., the latest GDP data confirmed solid economic growth in 2024. However, as President Trump pushes forward his economic agenda, uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and global trade have dampened market sentiment. Inflation pressures persisted, with the rate of inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% objective. The labour market in the U.S. remained resilient, with unemployment rate staying low compared to historical norms. The Federal Reserve shifted to a more cautious approach, holding the policy rate steady through Q1 at the range 4.25% - 4.5%. The central bank raised its inflation forecast, lowered growth projections, and warned that “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.” U.S. bond yields were lower for most maturity dates during the first quarter, as the market priced in more growth concerns and anticipated more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

In Canada, recent GDP data showed stronger-than-expected growth. The inflation rate remained close to the 2% target but rose more than expected in February, and the labour market showed signs of improvement. U.S. tariffs continued to be a significant concern, and it is prompting businesses and consumers to become more cautious and slow their spending. The Bank of Canada warned that the economic impact of the tariffs could be “severe” and expected weaker growth in the coming quarters. For those reasons the Bank of Canada continued its easing cycle, cutting rates by 25 basis points at each of the January and March meetings, bringing the policy rate to 2.75%. Bond yields in Canada were also lower, with short-term interest rates decreasing faster than long-term interest rates as the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts outpaced market expectations.

Bond Markets: During Q1 2025, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returned 2.0% as interest rates declined across all tenors. Although interest rates fell, this was partially offset by higher credit spreads (i.e. the extra yield on corporate bonds versus government bonds to compensate for their extra risk). Consequently, while corporate bonds still generated a positive return on the quarter, they underperformed government bonds. Widening credit spreads reflected the risk-off tone to the market, with on-off-on-off-on(?) tariffs contributing to the uncertainty. Lower-rated BBB bonds generally performed worse than higher-quality A-rated bonds. While credit spreads are higher than they were in December and January, they are still expensive compared to longer term averages. Corporate bond issuance remained robust up until the last week of March, as investor demand kept deals well supported. Overall, the market took in $40 billion in new issuance, the second highest on record, spread over 82 bonds. While corporate bonds are more attractive than in January 2025, we believe the more likely path is towards higher credit spreads as U.S. tariffs impact global growth. We have maintained our conservative view with a bias towards shorter-dated credit but remain ready to invest in longer dated corporate bonds as valuations become more attractive.

Stock Markets – Overview:
Uncertainty surrounding the scope and severity of new tariffs led investors to reassess global economic growth prospects and weighed on risk sentiment. As a result, the S&P 500 declined 4.3% over the quarter, underperforming Canadian and international markets. Within the U.S., investors rotated out of previously favoured growth stocks with loftier valuations – including members of the Magnificent 7 – into less volatile and value-cyclical companies. Meanwhile, Canadian equities returned 1.5% in Q1 despite ongoing trade negotiations and uncertain economic growth forecasts. Surging commodity prices helped the materials and energy sectors outperform, offsetting weakness in the technology and industrials sectors. Elsewhere, major developed markets from Europe and Asia (EAFE) were supported over the quarter by the introduction of a new German fiscal stimulus package and signs of improving Chinese economic growth. Following the quarter end, President Trump announced global tariffs on April 2^nd, prompting some trading partners to hit back with retaliatory tariffs. The S&P 500 lost a record $5.2 trillion over two trading sessions and re-entered correction territory, with other global equity markets moving in tandem.

U.S. Equities: While the impact of tariffs has made investors more apprehensive, we have yet to witness a deterioration in financial performance. In fact, U.S. earnings continued to exceed forecasts last quarter, with approximately 70% of companies beating expectations. Furthermore, our bottom-up analysis shows that the skew of corporate earnings surprises continues to tilt positive. That said, we note that companies are providing more cautious guidance amid the increased economic uncertainty and that these earnings largely reflect conditions in 2024, not 2025. Notably, consumer stocks like Walmart have lowered growth forecasts for 2025, citing concerns surrounding consumer confidence and macroeconomic conditions. In addition to clouding the outlook, geopolitical shocks like sweeping tariffs may risk changing how companies choose to operate, including the structure of supply chains and sources of revenue. At this stage, it is still unclear how long these trade tensions will last, as that depends on how other countries choose to respond. If the tariffs are rolled back quickly, many companies may be able to absorb the temporary extra costs without serious damage to profits, and the broader economy could avoid lasting harm. But if the tariffs remain in place for a long time, the consequences could be much more serious; companies might have to change how they operate, restructure supply chains, and raise prices to deal with long-term pressure on profits.

Canadian Equities: Against the backdrop of worrisome trade developments, the Bank of Canada continued to ease monetary policy. While lower rates have helped Canadian companies report better-than-expected profit growth, consensus earnings expectations for 2025 have been revised 2% lower since the beginning of the year, reflecting the expectations for tariff headwinds. Falling bond yields made high quality, high dividend paying companies more attractive, helping this group outperform. Furthermore, the price of raw industrials – a basket of commodities – surged higher over the quarter and as a result, commodity-oriented companies benefitted. More specifically, the materials sector performed strongly with gold prices reaching new all-time highs throughout the quarter. However, if trade frictions continue to escalate and weaker growth projections materialize into a real economic slowdown, the Canadian market, given its cyclical nature and heavy reliance on commodity-driven businesses, remains particularly vulnerable to external headwinds. Moreover, given Canada’s weaker fundamental backdrop, we caution that the recent outperformance of Canadian equities relative to the U.S. may prove short-lived, particularly if trade tension persists.

Bottom line:
Heightened uncertainty surrounding global trade policies, coupled with deteriorating economic growth projections, continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Bond prices benefited from the flight to less-risky assets, with lower interest rates in anticipation of weaker economic conditions. In equity markets, the introduction of broad-based tariffs increased market volatility and drove major indices sharply lower year-to-date. Looking forward, we remain cautious of the recent outperformance of Canadian and international markets relative to the U.S. While tariffs began as a U.S. policy move, the ripple effects extend far beyond American borders, reflecting the systemic fragility that underpins global trade. If trade barriers persist, businesses may be forced to make structural shifts in their operations and review their current business models. Until markets achieve greater clarity on global trade policies, we continue to prioritize exposure to diversified large-cap stocks in the U.S., over defensive or growth-heavy positions. Within Canada, we continue to favour high quality, high dividend paying names with less sensitivity to downgrades in global growth.

Downloadable Copy

Mark Warywoda, CFA VP, Public Portfolio Management	Ian Whiteside, CFA, MBA AVP, Public Portfolio Management	Johanna Shaw, CFA Director, Portfolio Management	Jin Li Director, Equity Portfolio Management
Tyler Farrow, CFA Senior Analyst, Equity	Andrew Vermeer Senior Analyst, Credit	Elizabeth Ayodele Analyst, Credit	Francie Chen Analyst, Rates

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Wrapping up 2025 with our new term rates!
Among the most competitive in the market
Equitable^® is wrapping up 2025 with our new term rates effective November 22, 2025. Many Canadians view life insurance as unaffordable, with 34% saying cost is the top reason they go without coverage.¹ Our new term rates are designed to help address these concerns. They offer flexible and affordable options to help clients get the protection they need.
¹Investment Executive at Survey finds affordability, lack of trust, barriers to buying life insurance | Investment Executive

What’s New:
Updated premium rates for Term coverage, included on:
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View our Transition Rules for all the details on processing your applications.

New term rate highlights*:

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