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  1. EAMG Market Commentary August 2022 HEADER.png
     

    August 2022

    The S&P 500 fell into bear market territory over the first half of 2022 with the index down -20.6%. This represented a top 10 ranking amongst the most dismal back-to-back quarterly performances going back to 1928. While comparisons have been made to the inflation driven bear market of 1973-74, the economic backdrop today has some significant differences including greater production capacity (factory utilization rates are running about 20% lower vs the 70’s) and a meaningful decline in raw industrial prices which have fallen -11% over the quarter. While these economic anecdotes are potential positives for the future, it’s important to remain cognizant that prices remain elevated.

    As such, the US Federal Reserve seems to be taking every opportunity to telegraph their intentions of raising interest rates at the expense of both market and economic performance, so long as inflation remains a threat. Given this hawkish tone, the market narrative has morphed from fears of inflation to a fed driven recession. As a result, the move in the bond market has been swift with the 10-year treasury yield peaking at approximately 3.5% in June to today’s level of 2.7% (lower rates = higher bond prices). This positive bond performance reflects the consensus view that inflation is temporary (2023 CPI forecasts are approximately 3.6% vs the second quarter’s 8.7% CPI reading) and could allow the Fed to adjust their higher interest rate trajectory downward. The Fed also remains confident that a soft landing is achievable, and a recession avoidable.

    Investors seem less convinced however, given the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing before, and so it’s no surprise equity markets entered a bear market over the quarter, and currently remain in a technical correction (defined as losses greater than -10%). To better assess future performance, we closely monitor earnings results to understand how companies are navigating these economic trends. With nearly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, the results have been better than expected, but still the EPS beat rate and magnitude of beats (actual vs expectation) remain below 5-year averages. This tells us companies are finding today’s economic conditions more challenging than the recent past. Consumer sectors including marketing, retail, autos and textiles posted the 2nd worst performance vs other sectors while the Financials sector saw the greatest challenges with aggregate EPS falling by -15% year-over-year. Wall Street analysts have started to revise S&P 500 forward growth estimates lower, a trend which we expect will continue for several quarters ahead. The forward (12-month blended) P/E ratio of 17.5 times remains 1.5 multiple points above the long-term average which potentially suggests risks may not be fully priced in.

    In terms of the S&P/TSX Composite, after declining nearly -14% in Q2 as recession fears around the world jeopardized the global demand outlook, its’ since rebounded over 4.0%. Still, valuation remains below longer-term averages at 11.8x forward earnings with the heavier weighted Financials and Energy sectors trading at 9.5x and 7.9x, respectively. TSX earnings expectations have stalled as of late but downward revisions are lagging US and European counterparts. Additionally, the domestic labour market remains tight which has allowed the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive rate hike path to curb soaring inflation. For most of 2022 the TSX has benefitted from surging commodity prices but an economic slowdown in China resulting from its commitment to a zero-Covid policy and a potential global recession could prove to be a challenge for the Canadian market.

    Equity markets on average lose 30% of their value in recession led bear markets. If we use this as a potential road map, it suggests the S&P 500 could have further to fall. Using past performance as a forward-looking tool however is an imperfect technique and used in isolation of what’s happening today can often mislead.

    Accounting for today’s backdrop, we come up with three scenarios of varying probabilities. The first is the most optimistic and includes an engineered soft landing by the Fed, meaning no recession and inflation cools. A less optimistic view is the fed tames inflation with higher interest rates but tips the economy into a mild-to-moderate recession. The outcome would be consumer spending and corporate hiring slow as a result of tighter financial conditions, and therefore financial results are negatively impacted. The least optimistic scenario is one where stagflationary conditions emerge as inflation continues to accelerate at the expense of growth despite higher interest rates, in other words the Fed loses control. The net result would be similar to our second scenario but with much more dire results in terms of unemployment, household spending and impacts to corporate profitability. While we don’t rule out any of the above scenarios completely, we assign the highest probability to the second one where macro economic issues get resolved at some point in the future, but the full effects of inflation and a possible recession have yet to be priced into the market. Currently, this view translates into a slight underweight equity position versus our benchmark with a tilt towards low volatility and defensive strategies along with an overlay of value and dividend paying securities. In other words, we’ve de-risked the portfolios relative to our benchmark to manage potential downside risks but remain meaningfully invested an on absolute basis. As always, time in the market tends to overcome trying to time the market, and so employing a strategic and diversified strategy is often the most prudent approach.


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    ADVISOR USE ONLY
    Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy.

  2. [pdf] CLHIA MGA Compliance Survey
  3. Are your clients looking for more Tax-Free Savings Account contribution room?
    Good news!  With the start of the new year comes new additional contribution room.

    A Tax-Free Savings Account is a great option for clients to grow their savings with the flexibility to access their money when they need it, before or during retirement. Encourage your clients to start saving today! ­

    For more information on the options available, please click here.
     
  4. [pdf] Excelerator deposit option Q&A
  5. Supporting you and your group clients during the COVID-19 pandemic

    We know these are challenging times.

    As COVID-19 continues to spread, we want to reassure you that we remain ready and committed to support you, your group clients and their plan members.

    We have a robust and well-tested business continuity plan in place and have taken the necessary steps to maintain the high level of service you have come to expect from us. Our business is near 100% digital, so the vast majority of our employees are now working remotely from home and are fully functional. Our Customer Care Centre remains open to support plan members and can be reached at 1.800.265.4556. And our Client Relationship Specialists are available for Plan Administrator questions and support.

    As the situation continues to develop, we know you will have questions about what it means for your clients and their plan members. We have already issued announcements related to Travel Assist coverage for plan members who are outside of the country, and about short-term disability coverage for plan members who are in quarantine or self-isolation. We will continue to provide timely updates as developments unfold.

    All of us are facing an unprecedented number of urgent situations where there is no established protocol. Our commitment to you and your clients is to respond quickly, and to be flexible where we can, tailoring solutions to specific needs. The global situation is evolving rapidly; we ask for your patience as our solutions also evolve quickly and accordingly. Your Group Account Executive and myFlex Sales Manager are well equipped to navigate Equitable Life’s experts and to resolve difficulties.

    These are extraordinary times and history is in the making. Rest assured that Equitable Life is unwavering in our support, and we will be here to help you when it matters most.

  6. Deposits to the Fidelity Special Situations mutual fund are being limited but the segregated fund is
    Fidelity Investments® recently said they would no longer accept deposits from new investors into the Fidelity® Special Situations Fund. This notice however does not affect Equitable Life® clients.

    The Special Situations Fund will continue to be open to new and existing Equitable Life clients. This includes clients with Pivotal Select™, Pivotal Solutions* or Personal Investment Portfolio segregated funds contracts.

    Why is Fidelity limiting access to the mutual fund?
    This award-winning mutual fund has grown significantly and now has $3.6 billion of managed assets. To preserve the integrity of the fund’s investment strategy, Fidelity® decided to limit inflows to the fund. Limiting the amount of managed assets held within the fund allows the fund’s portfolio manager to focus on what he does best - finding special situation investment opportunities and capitalizing on positive change within companies and industries across Canada and around the world.

    If you like the Special Situations mutual fund, you will value the Equitable Life Fidelity® Special Situations segregated fund. Segregated funds are similar to mutual funds but offer different features and guarantees. To learn about these features, check out the Investment Advantage. To learn more about the Special Situations segregated fund, click here.


    For more information about Equitable Life’s segregated funds, speak to your Regional Investment Sales Manager or visit our segregated funds page on EquiNet®.
     
    References:
    Fidelity’s press release announcing the limited fund closure
    Fidelity® Special Situations portfolio management strategy, webinar featuring Mark Schmehl, Portfolio Manager.


    *No Load, Deferred Sales Charge, Pivotal Solutions II
    ® or ™ denotes a trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada, except as noted below.
    Fidelity and Fidelity Investments are registered trademarks of 483A Bay Street Holdings LP. Used with permission.
  7. Make It Easy EZtransact Contest

     

    Welcome EZtransactTM, Equitable Life®’s newest online transaction tool that makes managing your client’s policies quick and convenient.


    Every EZtransact online transaction submitted between September 13 and November 26, 2021 gives you the chance to WIN! Eligible non-winning Entries will be carried forward to subsequent Draw Dates. So the sooner you start using EZtransact, the more chances you have to win! First draw will be on September 27, 2021.

    One $100 winner each week! With a Grand Prize winner of $1000 at the end of the contest! Want to find out more? Please see the contest rules here. You can also contact us at equitablesrmarketing@equitable.ca.


    Click here for to start using EZtransact today.

     




    Make It Easy” EZtransactTM Contest: No purchase necessary. Contest period September 13, 2021 to November 26, 2021. Eleven prizes to be awarded, for a total value of $2,100 CAD. Ten weekly prize draws, each for one prize of $100 CAD, to be held every Monday from September 27, 2021 to November 29, 2021. One Grand Prize draw, for one prize of $1,000 CAD, to be held on November 29, 2021. Correct answer to mathematical skill testing question required to win. Open to legal residents of Canada of the age of majority. Eligible non-winning Entries will be carried forward to subsequent Entry Periods and will be eligible on subsequent Draw Dates. Maximum one weekly draw prize per person. Odds of winning depend on number of eligible Entries received during the Contest Period.

    Click here to see full contest rules, including no purchase method of entry.
  8. Make It EZ2 EZtransact Contest – Twice As Nice!


    The Make-It-EZ EZtransactTM contest is back by popular demand! This time we are making it twice as nice with one $200 winner each week, and a Grand Prize winner of $2000 at the end of the contest! Just in time for your busy RSP season, EZtransact, makes managing your client’s policies quick and convenient.

    Every EZtransact online transaction submitted between January 24 and April 1, 2022 gives you the chance to WIN! Eligible non-winning Entries will be carried forward to subsequent Draw Dates. So the sooner you start using EZtransact, the more chances you have to win! First draw will be on January 31, 2022.

    Click here for to start using EZtransact today.

    New to EZtransact? Click here to try our new EZtransact Sandbox practice site. 

    “Make It EZ2” EZtransactTM Contest: No purchase necessary. Contest period January 24, 2022 to April 1, 2022. Eleven prizes to be awarded, for a total value of $4,000 CAD. Ten weekly prize draws, each for one prize of $200 CAD, to be held every Monday from January 31, 2022 to April 4, 2022. One Grand Prize draw, for one prize of $2,000 CAD, to be held on April 4, 2022. Correct answer to mathematical skill testing question required to win. Open to legal residents of Canada of the age of majority. Eligible non-winning Entries will be carried forward to subsequent Entry Periods and will be eligible on subsequent Draw Dates. Maximum one weekly draw prize per person. Odds of winning depend on number of eligible Entries received during the Contest Period. Click here to see full contest rules, including no purchase method of entry.
  9. Equitable's Fresh Outlook DIA/GIA Contest

    The recent launches of Equitable’s Daily Interest Account (DIA) and Guaranteed Interest Account (GIA) this summer have caused a bit of a buzz. So much so that we are launching Equitable’s Fresh Outlook DIA/GIA Contest.

    That’s right. To celebrate our fresh client-focused approach within a digital business solution, Equitable® is giving advisors a chance to win a prize of one $1,000 gift card.

    Between August 1, 2024 and October 31, 2024, every time advisors use Equitable’s EZcomplete® online application platform to submit a client's complete DIA/GIA application they will automatically be entered into the Fresh Outlook DIA/GIA Contest.

    Equitable is committed to offering valuable guaranteed investment solutions in a competitive market. Our fresh approach to guaranteed investing makes Equitable’s Daily Interest Account or Guaranteed Interest Account an easy choice.

    Speak to your Director, Investment Sales to learn more.

    ® or TM denotes a registered trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
    Fresh Outlook DIA/GIA Contest: No purchase necessary. Contest period is August 1, 2024 to October 31, 2024. One (1) prize to be awarded for a total value of $1,000 CAD. Correct answer to mathematical skill-testing question required to win. Open to legal residents of Canada of the age of majority. Odds of winning depend on number of eligible Entries received during the Contest Period. For full contest rules, including no-purchase method of entry, see full contest rules.


    Date posted: August 1, 2024
  10. Questions about eDelivery? New eDelivery page

    Find information on the eDelivery process quickly with our new eDelivery of a Contract landing page.

    New-Business-eDelivery-EN.jpgPolicy-Change-eDelivery-EN_conversions.jpg
    We’ve made it easier to get the information you need to electronically deliver the insurance contract promptly. 

    eDelivery makes it quick and easy, and our new landing page ensures you’re able to find the information you need regarding the New Business eDelivery process, or the Policy Change and Conversions eDelivery process. You can find various resources in the Links section on the right-hand side of each page to help you along the way.