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Get the Straight Talk from Equitable’s public investments expert
Real answers to big questions
When you have questions about par whole life insurance, you need concise, direct insights from leaders and subject matter experts. And that’s where Straight Talk can help!
Straight Talk with Mark Warywoda
What’s really behind consistent long-term performance? Find out in this next episode of Straight Talk, hosted by Rob Hollingsworth, Head of Insurance Distribution.
Watch Mark Warywoda, VP of Public Investments, break down how disciplined sourcing and a scalable strategy help sustain Equitable’s long-term par fund performance.
In case you missed it .... Straight Talk with Mark Arruda
In the first episode of Straight Talk, Mark Arruda, VP of Individual Insurance Pricing and Finance, talks about how Equitable’s par account is built to perform in all kinds of conditions, with strong governance, disciplined risk management, and prudent capital practices that allow Equitable’s par account to perform at top-tier levels.
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Learn how Equimax® whole life insurance can benefit clients. Contact your individual insurance wholesaler today.
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EAMG Market Commentary August 2022
August 2022
The S&P 500 fell into bear market territory over the first half of 2022 with the index down -20.6%. This represented a top 10 ranking amongst the most dismal back-to-back quarterly performances going back to 1928. While comparisons have been made to the inflation driven bear market of 1973-74, the economic backdrop today has some significant differences including greater production capacity (factory utilization rates are running about 20% lower vs the 70’s) and a meaningful decline in raw industrial prices which have fallen -11% over the quarter. While these economic anecdotes are potential positives for the future, it’s important to remain cognizant that prices remain elevated.
As such, the US Federal Reserve seems to be taking every opportunity to telegraph their intentions of raising interest rates at the expense of both market and economic performance, so long as inflation remains a threat. Given this hawkish tone, the market narrative has morphed from fears of inflation to a fed driven recession. As a result, the move in the bond market has been swift with the 10-year treasury yield peaking at approximately 3.5% in June to today’s level of 2.7% (lower rates = higher bond prices). This positive bond performance reflects the consensus view that inflation is temporary (2023 CPI forecasts are approximately 3.6% vs the second quarter’s 8.7% CPI reading) and could allow the Fed to adjust their higher interest rate trajectory downward. The Fed also remains confident that a soft landing is achievable, and a recession avoidable.
Investors seem less convinced however, given the Fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing before, and so it’s no surprise equity markets entered a bear market over the quarter, and currently remain in a technical correction (defined as losses greater than -10%). To better assess future performance, we closely monitor earnings results to understand how companies are navigating these economic trends. With nearly 80% of the S&P 500 reported, the results have been better than expected, but still the EPS beat rate and magnitude of beats (actual vs expectation) remain below 5-year averages. This tells us companies are finding today’s economic conditions more challenging than the recent past. Consumer sectors including marketing, retail, autos and textiles posted the 2nd worst performance vs other sectors while the Financials sector saw the greatest challenges with aggregate EPS falling by -15% year-over-year. Wall Street analysts have started to revise S&P 500 forward growth estimates lower, a trend which we expect will continue for several quarters ahead. The forward (12-month blended) P/E ratio of 17.5 times remains 1.5 multiple points above the long-term average which potentially suggests risks may not be fully priced in.
In terms of the S&P/TSX Composite, after declining nearly -14% in Q2 as recession fears around the world jeopardized the global demand outlook, its’ since rebounded over 4.0%. Still, valuation remains below longer-term averages at 11.8x forward earnings with the heavier weighted Financials and Energy sectors trading at 9.5x and 7.9x, respectively. TSX earnings expectations have stalled as of late but downward revisions are lagging US and European counterparts. Additionally, the domestic labour market remains tight which has allowed the Bank of Canada to continue its aggressive rate hike path to curb soaring inflation. For most of 2022 the TSX has benefitted from surging commodity prices but an economic slowdown in China resulting from its commitment to a zero-Covid policy and a potential global recession could prove to be a challenge for the Canadian market.
Equity markets on average lose 30% of their value in recession led bear markets. If we use this as a potential road map, it suggests the S&P 500 could have further to fall. Using past performance as a forward-looking tool however is an imperfect technique and used in isolation of what’s happening today can often mislead.
Accounting for today’s backdrop, we come up with three scenarios of varying probabilities. The first is the most optimistic and includes an engineered soft landing by the Fed, meaning no recession and inflation cools. A less optimistic view is the fed tames inflation with higher interest rates but tips the economy into a mild-to-moderate recession. The outcome would be consumer spending and corporate hiring slow as a result of tighter financial conditions, and therefore financial results are negatively impacted. The least optimistic scenario is one where stagflationary conditions emerge as inflation continues to accelerate at the expense of growth despite higher interest rates, in other words the Fed loses control. The net result would be similar to our second scenario but with much more dire results in terms of unemployment, household spending and impacts to corporate profitability. While we don’t rule out any of the above scenarios completely, we assign the highest probability to the second one where macro economic issues get resolved at some point in the future, but the full effects of inflation and a possible recession have yet to be priced into the market. Currently, this view translates into a slight underweight equity position versus our benchmark with a tilt towards low volatility and defensive strategies along with an overlay of value and dividend paying securities. In other words, we’ve de-risked the portfolios relative to our benchmark to manage potential downside risks but remain meaningfully invested an on absolute basis. As always, time in the market tends to overcome trying to time the market, and so employing a strategic and diversified strategy is often the most prudent approach.
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ADVISOR USE ONLY
Any statements contained herein that are not based on historical fact are forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements represent the portfolio manager’s best judgment as of the present date as to what may occur in the future. However, forward-looking statements are subject to many risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on the portfolio manager’s present opinions and views. For this reason, the actual outcome of the events or results predicted may differ materially from what is expressed. Furthermore, the portfolio manager’s views, opinions or assumptions may subsequently change based on previously unknown information, or for other reasons. Equitable Life of Canada® assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained herein. The reader is cautioned to consider these and other factors carefully and not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Investments may increase or decrease in value and are invested at the risk of the investor. Investment values change frequently, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Professional advice should be sought before an investor embarks on any investment strategy. - Administration Reference Guide for Individual Wealth
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Taking the guess work out of market volatility with Equitable Life
Investing during market highs and market lows can leave even the most seasoned investors scratching their heads. Knowing when to buy and when to sell is not easy, but disciplined investing can be.
Dollar cost averaging with Equitable Life® is designed to provide a long-term investment solution. This strategy helps take the guesswork out of knowing when to get into the market. It can also provide consistency for a long-term financial plan regardless of whether there is a lot or a little to invest.
And for a limited time only, we’ve increased the initial commission for the CB5 sales option from 5.6% to 7.0% on Pivotal Select™ segregated funds*, effective from May 20 to August 31, 2022.** During this time, advisors earn the increased full initial commission even if funds are placed into Equitable Life Money Market Fund to start the PAC.
For more information on dollar cost averaging, please contact your Equitable Life Regional Investment Sales Manager.
* Applies to FundSERV trades occurring between May 20 and August 31, 2022. Initial commission on non-FundSERV trades occurring between May 20 to August 31, 2022 increases from 4% to 5%. Initial commission is subject to a chargeback.
** Equitable Life reserves the right to end the campaign at any time and without notice.
™or ® denotes a registered trademark of The Equitable Life Insurance Company of Canada.
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Equitable Life offers more than 60 years of RSP innovation
In 1957, Equitable Life® began offering a Retirement Savings Plan (RSP). That is more than 60 years of RSP innovation in the Canadian marketplace. Today, Equitable Life offers two great accumulating RSP products to meet your clients’ needs.These products provide both protection and flexibility for your clients. They also provide the tax savings and benefits of an RSP. Get your clients to start saving to their RSP now. Make RSP contributions a financial priority each year.
This year’s RSP deadline is March 1, 2022. This will be the last day that an RSP deposit can reduce your clients’ 2021 taxable income.
If your client is looking to convert registered savings to guaranteed income, click here to learn more about Equitable Life’s payout annuity options.
Need additional support? Contact your local Regional Investment Sales Manager today. -
Easier than ever with Equitable and EZtransact
Equitable® keeps improving our digital self-serve tool, EZtransact®. Our latest enhancements make it easier than ever to do business with us.
What's new?
Dollar cost averaging transaction- Advisors can now submit new dollar cost averaging requests through the Fund Switch transaction in EZtransact. A new recurring switch type is available.
- When submitting a new request, you'll need to enter the amount, frequency, date of transfers, and the funds involved.
- If a client has an active request, you can change the amount, frequency, date, and funds.
- After you submit the request, the client will get an email to sign. Once they e-sign, the request goes directly to Equitable.
Other recent enhancements include:- Segregated fund withdrawals and fund transfers
- New dashboard for client search, transaction management enhancements and signing process improvements
Date posted: December 11, 2024 -
Large insurance case? Expert help starts here.
Ask our Experts Episode 3
At Equitable, we’re committed to the large case market. Our dedicated team of experts have a wealth of knowledge and experience. They’re here to support you and to help get your large case from application through to policy placement.
Today, we are thrilled to share the third episode of Ask our Experts featuring Mark Warywoda, Public Investments VP. Watch it now!
Mark shares his thoughts on:
• The benefits of Equitable’s PAR fund
• The key advantages of mutuality
• The golden rule of investing: staying focussed on the long term.
In case you haven’t seen it…
• Watch Ask our Experts Episode 1 with Cindy Shirley, Chief Underwriter and Claims Risk Management.
• Watch Ask our Experts Episode 2 with Kevin Till, AVP of Individual Life Pricing.
Learn more:
Visit our large case markets webpage to learn more about our team of dedicated experts.
Do you have a large case opportunity? Talk to your wholesaler to learn more. - Exchanges